coronavirus

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

13 minutes ago, THE RED ROOSTER said:

If you want facts rather than opinion,  I direct you to the Twitter Feed of Professor David Paton, Professor of Industrial Economics at Nottingham University who has been number cruncing the published stats here and abroad.

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern

 

7 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

Sorry but he has no grasp of epidemiology - this is not an economics exercise it is about disease vectors and  transmission multipliers

I did econometrics at Uni and can see how completely irrelevant the maths is to this kind of issue - I am sorry but I would always trust a medical professor over an economics professor

He's also just using the data for hospital deaths in England completely ignoring deaths in the community in England, deaths in Wales, deaths in NI and deaths in Scotland. So not even complete data for basing any conclusion for the UK as a whole.

[Northern Eel]

Double post

[Saintslass]

6 hours ago, ckn said:

NOT a political point (the actual numbers are a political point and one for that thread)

It's amazing the adaptability of the human brain. Two weeks ago we were in horror at the Italian numbers and no-one was willing to accept that that could happen here. Yet, here we are: 14,576 deaths and it's "ah well, but Prince William dialled someone on Zoom while making sure the media got an invite as well"

 

I think the horror of Italy, and also more recently Spain, was seeing things like patients lying on the floor in absolutely packed facilities.  The one thing we have done extremely well I think is prepare NHS capacity.  Unless things go horribly wrong with the lockdown (or, in future, with managing the disease), we should hopefully not see those scenes.  

[Saintslass]

Care homes everywhere have been hit by this pandemic but it seems those in France have been particularly hard hit (see here  )

The total death toll from the coronavirus in France has risen to 18,681 on Friday from 17,920, Reuters reports.

The death toll in hospitals rose to 11,478 from 11,060, while the death toll in nursing homes rose to 7,203 from 6,860 on Thursday.

[Saintslass]

3 hours ago, fairfolly said:

Apparently there was scope for 38,000 tests today but apparently only 21,000 turned up for the test. Any idea why, 

Speculation in the media has been that the government anticipated more NHS staff being referred than have been.  It's possible that most NHS staff were covered by hospital based testing and so didn't need to use the drive through facilities.  According to the committee meeting today, 7.2% of NHS staff are off due to covid (not just sickness but also family sickness or vulnerability).  

Apparently people are referred for tests.  I think we are trying to avoid the scenes elsewhere of great long queues waiting to be tested (plus, of course, with a limited supply of tests we would simply run out if people could just turn up).  At least now anyway we are able to extend the availability to other key workers, which the government has now done.  We are moving in the right direction.  Two of the three mega labs are now up and running we were told at the press conference today and the third should be online this week with Cambridge also coming online at the start of May.  It's now just a case of getting people to the testing sites.  I read somewhere that the government is also setting up local sites in more rural areas.

[Bearman]

We have a daily "briefing" ( propaganda bulletin) followed by a Q&A session by a bunch of journalists .

Are they really the cream of the 4th estate? If so, it's no wonder people are looking for answers to any crank website.

Today the "Experts" ( I know, I know) told us that the best science predicts that face masks are at best no more than brown paper plasters for the problem.

Do the hacks listen? No they keep on about a quote by that windbag the Mayor of London.  When did Sudiq Khan find time from standing on his hind legs and pontificating to extend his law degree to become a man of science?

 

[Damien]

8 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

I think the horror of Italy, and also more recently Spain, was seeing things like patients lying on the floor in absolutely packed facilities.  The one thing we have done extremely well I think is prepare NHS capacity.  Unless things go horribly wrong with the lockdown (or, in future, with managing the disease), we should hopefully not see those scenes.  

It's just a pity we weren't testing and checking arrivals from those places to limit the spread in the first place. Even now arrivals from hotspots aren't being tested or screened which completely undermines the efforts of the general public.

[Kayakman]

6 minutes ago, Bearman said:

We have a daily "briefing" ( propaganda bulletin) followed by a Q&A session by a bunch of journalists .

Are they really the cream of the 4th estate? If so, it's no wonder people are looking for answers to any crank website.

Today the "Experts" ( I know, I know) told us that the best science predicts that face masks are at best no more than brown paper plasters for the problem.

Do the hacks listen? No they keep on about a quote by that windbag the Mayor of London.  When did Sudiq Khan find time from standing on his hind legs and pontificating to extend his law degree to become a man of science?

 

That is a pretty deep last sentence Bearman.  

Kylie now lives in deep northern bear country...she is doing alot of hiking now and running into your numerous cousins who are waking up....and hungry!

[Bob8]

1 hour ago, SSoutherner said:

the thing is whilst the labs may have ramped up to being able to cope with 38k per day tests, have the testing centers also ramped up AND MORE IMPORTANTLY we have spent the last month screaming that people shouldnt be tested unless needed (look at the issues over Give's daughter being tested) so who has communicated what to whom over who is now eligible and should be turning up at those testing centres. I expect it will take up to 7 days to filter through

My sister in Australia is covered in PPE. My wife has been invited to a test, just in case.

 

[Saintslass]

Just now, Bearman said:

We have a daily "briefing" ( propaganda bulletin) followed by a Q&A session by a bunch of journalists .

Are they really the cream of the 4th estate? If so, it's no wonder people are looking for answers to any crank website.

Today the "Experts" ( I know, I know) told us that the best science predicts that face masks are at best no more than brown paper plasters for the problem.

Do the hacks listen? No they keep on about a quote by that windbag the Mayor of London.  When did Sudiq Khan find time from standing on his hind legs and pontificating to extend his law degree to a man of science?

 

I always find the press conferences informative.

Today I learned about the work going on to create a vaccine and all the trials that are happening and the companies and others involved.  I find it reassuring to learn that these things are being addressed and that no stone is being left unturned.  It was hardly propaganda.

Unfortunately there were more stupid questions by the press pack, and more stuff about ending the lockdown even though the government has been crystal clear that until the five criteria are met, ending the lockdown isn't going to happen.  I don't know how the panel don't throw their lecterns at the screen when the same questions are asked by the same dumb people.  It's a complete waste of time for those of us who are actually listening and want to know what's going on.  Last night there was one superb question which brought some really interesting information into the open but tonight it was largely inane again.  It's all about the gotcha moment and nothing else.

Having said all that, Sharma doesn't do the best job at answering the questions he IS asked.  He does answer them but you have to really listen hard for the key words.  For example, someone asked a remotely sensible question (I think the bloke was from a regional paper so that will be why) about HS2, namely since we're going to be broke, why continue with such an expensive project?  Sharma did answer but you really had to listen hard.  His answer was basically that the government wanted to keep the economy going as much as possible and ensure there were jobs being done when we come out the other side.  That may have been just a good excuse, if your bent is to believe these press conferences are nothing but propaganda, but the point is still a valid one: we will need all the work we can produce when we are trying to release the lockdown.

[Wolford6]

1 hour ago, gingerjon said:

 

Virtually nobody aside from some extreme voices on here or hacks in the pay of dubious media types have any interest in coming out of restrictions too soon.

I suspect that every worker in danger of losing his or her job unless they go back to work would be willing to go back.

Watch the news; ther's loads of small firms which haven't had their bailout money and could go out of business.

I've got mates with few formal qualifications and / or their skills were in the textile industry that Thatcherism sent to the wall. They are in their fifties and sixties. They need to go back  to work or risk never getting another decent job.

[Bob8]

7 minutes ago, Bearman said:

We have a daily "briefing" ( propaganda bulletin) followed by a Q&A session by a bunch of journalists .

Are they really the cream of the 4th estate? If so, it's no wonder people are looking for answers to any crank website.

Today the "Experts" ( I know, I know) told us that the best science predicts that face masks are at best no more than brown paper plasters for the problem.

Do the hacks listen? No they keep on about a quote by that windbag the Mayor of London.  When did Sudiq Khan find time from standing on his hind legs and pontificating to extend his law degree to become a man of science?

Masks really are rubbish as they would be used.

I do not know, but I do not understand why hand sanitiser has been treated as such a good thing. It has not place where a sink in available. Hand sanitiser is rubbish in comparison to a basic wash.

[Saintslass]

1 minute ago, Damien said:

It's just a pity we weren't testing and checking arrivals from those places to limit the spread in the first place. Even now arrivals from hotspots aren't being tested or screened which completely undermines the efforts of the general public.

To begin with, it has been widely acknowledged that we did not have the infrastructure to continue testing.  We started out by testing and tracing but then we had to redirect our limited resources once it became obvious that the virus had gotten hold within the community.  I believe Italy has tested more than we have but look where they are.  The much lauded Germany have a much, much better infrastructure than we have, with a far bigger sector.  But they didn't just test, because testing in itself will simply tell you who has the disease and who hasn't.  It's the tracking and tracing and then quarantining which is important.  You remember those people from Wuhan and the cruise ship?  We started off very well but with all those people coming back from skiing in Italy things just got beyond our means.  Well, now we are putting that right for when we try and release the lockdown.

[Saintslass]

3 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Masks really are rubbish as they would be used.

I do not know, but I do not understand why hand sanitiser has been treated as such a good thing. It has not place where a sink in available. Hand sanitiser is rubbish in comparison to a basic wash.

Hand sanitiser was only ever recommended by the government for when you can't get to a sink and until you can get to a sink.  It's a holdover, as long as there is a minimum alcohol content.

Masks it appear would only be of benefit if everyone was wearing them (to protect others from yourself) and then only for a short time as they get damp and can become mini petri dishes, plus of course people fiddle with them.

But of course the press pack has become obsessed with them now and Khan, having failed completely to organise the Tube properly, now wants to get himself popular by appearing to know what he's talking about over masks.  The press pack will probably ask about masks as well as ending the lockdown at every bleeding press conference.

[Damien]

2 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

To begin with, it has been widely acknowledged that we did not have the infrastructure to continue testing.  We started out by testing and tracing but then we had to redirect our limited resources once it became obvious that the virus had gotten hold within the community.  I believe Italy has tested more than we have but look where they are.  The much lauded Germany have a much, much better infrastructure than we have, with a far bigger sector.  But they didn't just test, because testing in itself will simply tell you who has the disease and who hasn't.  It's the tracking and tracing and then quarantining which is important.  You remember those people from Wuhan and the cruise ship?  We started off very well but with all those people coming back from skiing in Italy things just got beyond our means.  Well, now we are putting that right for when we try and release the lockdown.

We have never tested all arrivals or anywhere near. That has been well documented. Flights were coming from Italy with absolutely no testing. We still aren't even testing arrivals from hotspots, Hancock admitted that yesterday.

[gingerjon]

5 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

To begin with, it has been widely acknowledged that we did not have the infrastructure to continue testing.  We started out by testing and tracing but then we had to redirect our limited resources once it became obvious that the virus had gotten hold within the community.  I believe Italy has tested more than we have but look where they are.  The much lauded Germany have a much, much better infrastructure than we have, with a far bigger sector.  But they didn't just test, because testing in itself will simply tell you who has the disease and who hasn't.  It's the tracking and tracing and then quarantining which is important.  You remember those people from Wuhan and the cruise ship?  We started off very well but with all those people coming back from skiing in Italy things just got beyond our means.  Well, now we are putting that right for when we try and release the lockdown.

Nope.

We tested and are still testing everyone coming in from Italy.

Someone was on here only yesterday saying as much.

[Saintslass]

Anyway, I had to post this because I just know how much it will be appreciated on here! 

 

[gingerjon]

10 minutes ago, Wolford6 said:

I suspect that every worker in danger of losing his or her job unless they go back to work would be willing to go back.

Watch the news; ther's loads of small firms which haven't had their bailout money and could go out of business.

I've got mates with few formal qualifications and / or their skills were in the textile industry that Thatcherism sent to the wall. They are in their fifties and sixties. They need to go back  to work or risk never getting another decent job.

You probably shouldn’t have persuaded them to vote Tory then.

[Saintslass]

2 minutes ago, Damien said:

We have never tested all arrivals or anywhere near. That has been well documented. Flights were coming from Italy with absolutely no testing. We still aren't even testing arrivals from hotspots, Hancock admitted that yesterday.

We have never tested at airports, no.  There have been two reasons given for that.  Firstly, if we had adopted the common approach of the time, namely a temperature test, they were useless.  The first known case into the USA was temperature tested at the entry airport, found to be fine, but became the first known case of covid in the USA.  Secondly, we didn't have the resources, and still don't, to swab test everyone at airports.  As far as I'm aware, no country in Europe swab tests at airports?

Er, we ARE a hotspot!  Have you not noticed?!

[Bob8]

4 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

Hand sanitiser was only ever recommended by the government for when you can't get to a sink and until you can get to a sink.  It's a holdover, as long as there is a minimum alcohol content.

Masks it appear would only be of benefit if everyone was wearing them (to protect others from yourself) and then only for a short time as they get damp and can become mini petri dishes, plus of course people fiddle with them.

But of course the press pack has become obsessed with them now and Khan, having failed completely to organise the Tube properly, now wants to get himself popular by appearing to know what he's talking about over masks.  The press pack will probably ask about masks as well as ending the lockdown at every bleeding press conference.

The issue is that very few people are as attentive to the news as you are.

"Stay inside" is a simple message, which is why it works. It is not based on biology by pragmatism. I am probably wrong, but we can reasonably say that hand washing is very effective and hand sanitizer is very ineffective and nothing is only slightly worse. We might know that, I suspect more of the population have not got that message.

That said, the Government have a difficult job. The science has to be compromised to convey something that will be understood and easy to police.

[Saintslass]

5 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

Nope.

We tested and are still testing everyone coming in from Italy.

Someone was on here only yesterday saying as much.

That made absolutely no sense to me following on from my post.  Or indeed in any context.

[Saintslass]

4 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

You probably shouldn’t have persuaded them to vote Tory then.

I would imagine that comment would be better suited to the politics thread.

[Saintslass]

 

[Marauder]

16 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

To begin with, it has been widely acknowledged that we did not have the infrastructure to continue testing.  We started out by testing and tracing but then we had to redirect our limited resources once it became obvious that the virus had gotten hold within the community.  I believe Italy has tested more than we have but look where they are.  The much lauded Germany have a much, much better infrastructure than we have, with a far bigger sector.  But they didn't just test, because testing in itself will simply tell you who has the disease and who hasn't.  It's the tracking and tracing and then quarantining which is important.  You remember those people from Wuhan and the cruise ship?  We started off very well but with all those people coming back from skiing in Italy things just got beyond our means.  Well, now we are putting that right for when we try and release the lockdown.

Didn't the infrastructure get sold off to the American's.

[Bob8]

4 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

 

The areas that will have the most trouble are areas like London and New York, I would imagine. There is far more space in Copnehagen or Oslo than there is in London. On the other hand, UK and Russian death figures appear to be optimisitic.

It is always dangerous to compare directly.