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31 minutes ago, Niels said:

Take care Bob. Does it cause flu like symptoms?

We are asked to get tested if we have anything viral at the moment, so I am just back from having a swab to make sure it is not covid. I am pretty sure it is not; adenovirus, rhino virus something else, but nothing serious I am sure. Cold like, or just a cold even.

Anyway, I got there, was masked up and two medical students called Signe and Johanna swabbed the back of my throat and sent me on my way. I will get a result in three days, presumably telling me that I do not have covid-19.

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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58 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

We are asked to get tested if we have anything viral at the moment, so I am just back from having a swab to make sure it is not covid. I am pretty sure it is not; adenovirus, rhino virus something else, but nothing serious I am sure. Cold like, or just a cold even.

Anyway, I got there, was masked up and two medical students called Signe and Johanna swabbed the back of my throat and sent me on my way. I will get a result in three days, presumably telling me that I do not have covid-19.

I hope you don't have it Bob.  

My brother has had it apparently (I say apparently because he wasn't tested but instead relied upon a 111 diagnosis).  We (as in the rest of the family) had no idea he was ill until my nephew told us that he was just getting out of self isolation.  It was a bit worrying not least because his son is actually shielding as he has a condition which requires medication that compromises his immune system.

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The trend of new cases data appears to support the government's decision to continue lockdown measures for now.

The infamous R0 value seems to be around 1 for now, but needs to drop further to start reducing the number of new cases before measures can be relaxed a little (temporarily?).

I guess we'll need to keep an eye on what happens in Germany and Spain as their measures are relaxed.

1888271930_DailyCases20-4-20.thumb.png.bdb07b7a62181caa65231ddede077f3c.png

 

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In my view, we need to excercise great care when looking at how other countries are acting. 

Population, population distribution,  demographics, population density, housing types, urban concentration, modes of transport, lockdown conditions and enforcement, infection reporting etc etc  all may differ, giving differing figures. Basing what we do here on those figures is fraught with problems and is beyond the understanding and anal  itical capability of our low intelligence media. 

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5 minutes ago, JohnM said:

In my view, we need to excercise great care when looking at how other countries are acting. 

Population, population distribution,  demographics, population density, housing types, urban concentration, modes of transport, lockdown conditions and enforcement, infection reporting etc etc  all may differ, giving differing figures. Basing what we do here on those figures is fraught with problems and is beyond the understanding and anal  itical capability of our low intelligence media. 

We have to collect data from across the world so we can pick it apart and leave the scientists to come up with a valid "best approach" that the govt can implement.....

Data is fluid at the moment. But that fluidity shouldn't impede the process. 

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The ONS stats for the week up to 10th April will be released this morning. It should give us an idea of how many more deaths we're seeing in the community that don't show up on the hospital figures. I'm sure the stats will be alarming and probably another record number of weekly deaths but we have to remember that they're a couple of weeks out of date.

 

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42 minutes ago, fevtom said:

The ONS stats for the week up to 10th April will be released this morning. It should give us an idea of how many more deaths we're seeing in the community that don't show up on the hospital figures. I'm sure the stats will be alarming and probably another record number of weekly deaths but we have to remember that they're a couple of weeks out of date.

 

And they include those where Covid 19 appears on the death certificate, not actually  those who have died from it. Important figures nevertheless, and as long as the recording basis does not change, important for comparisons and trends.

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1 hour ago, Robin Evans said:

We have to collect data from across the world so we can pick it apart and leave the scientists to come up with a valid "best approach" that the govt can implement.....

Data is fluid at thed7 moment. But that fluidity shouldn't impede the process. 

Understood. Hers a simple case where data may be used to make international comparisons that are then used to make or oppose policy. It is important to know how many people in France have been fined for breaching their lockdown compared with here, given that their lockdown is much more severe than here, their police force (we have a police service) don't rely on policing by consent, a much higher proportion of the population in urban centres live in apartments without gardens, whole population density is lower than here, distance between major centres is greater etc etc. 

Making such a simple comparison is complicated. I'm sure then, how difficult it may be on issues that really matter. Way beyond the comprehension of our pathetic media reporters. 

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21 minutes ago, JohnM said:

And they include those where Covid 19 appears on the death certificate, not actually  those who have died from it. Important figures nevertheless, and as long as the recording basis does not change, important for comparisons and trends.

 

 Covid could well turn up on some death certificates but equally there are cases of patients dying of pneumonia in hospitals and tests not being able to isolate the infection (as we have seen false negatives are quite common with Covid-19.) Doctors can be confident that this is likely Covid due to the symptoms, imaging results and general prevalence of the infection or the fact they have had close contact with people who tested positive but unless they successfully isolate the organism they won't show up in the released hospital numbers (and rightly so because the stats we use refer only to patients who 100% test positive.) But it does mean we are as likely to be underestimating the number of deaths as we are to be overestimating.

I think the best estimate we're gong to get is comparing the number of weekly deaths with the average number but even that is going to have a margin of error.

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1 hour ago, fevtom said:

 

 Covid could well turn up on some death certificates but equally there are cases of patients dying of pneumonia in hospitals and tests not being able to isolate the infection (as we have seen false negatives are quite common with Covid-19.) Doctors can be confident that this is likely Covid due to the symptoms, imaging results and general prevalence of the infection or the fact they have had close contact with people who tested positive but unless they successfully isolate the organism they won't show up in the released hospital numbers (and rightly so because the stats we use refer only to patients who 100% test positive.) But it does mean we are as likely to be underestimating the number of deaths as we are to be overestimating.

I think the best estimate we're gong to get is comparing the number of weekly deaths with the average number but even that is going to have a margin of error.

Quite so.  Day to day and week to week comparisons are best in my view, as long as the basis is not changed.

Who knows in the end what the  real figure will be?

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52 minutes ago, fevtom said:

Total deaths for week 15: 18,516

Five Year Average: 10,520

Deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate up to the 10th April: 13,121 ( up from the 9,288 previously released)

Five year average for a Virus that's been around for less than 12 months? Fake news warning.

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About time, too!

Parent fined after child repeatedly broke Covid-19 rules

Local Democracy Reporting Service

A parent has been fined after their child “repeatedly breached” Covid-19 rules, Lincolnshire Police say. Officers said they had been forced to take action against the Boston parent after engaging and explaining failed to work. A spokesman for the police said: “We really do not want to have to enforce, but for everyone’s safety on a very few occasions we have no choice. “Thank you to all the thousands of young people and their families who are abiding by the rules in challenging times.” On Monday, the force said it had handed out more than 65 fines in total to those who have breached the coronavirus lockdown.

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2 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Quite so.  Day to day and week to week comparisons are best in my view, as long as the basis is not changed.

Who knows in the end what the  real figure will be?

What's worrying about the wekely figures is that a significant number of people who are part of the huge rise over the past 5 year average are not down as having died of COVID-19. This could mean anything -

  • That they did have it but were undiagnosed (it killed them silently) on the death certificate
  • That lockdown is causing it
  • Something else as yet unknown

If several thousand people are dying extra per week non-COVID we could do with knowing why, but we may not know why for years. Another factor in the nightmare equation of keeping the lockdown going.

"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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Just now, JohnM said:

I think the figure is for all deaths from all causes over the last 5 years.

This would be a better answer to the "How many people has it killed?" if it weren't for the huge anomaly I discussed above. 

"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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1 minute ago, tim2 said:

What's worrying about the wekely figures is that a significant number of people who are part of the huge rise over the past 5 year average are not down as having died of COVID-19. This could mean anything -

  • That they did have it but were undiagnosed (it killed them silently) on the death certificate
  • That lockdown is causing it
  • Something else as yet unknown

If several thousand people are dying extra per week non-COVID we could do with knowing why, but we may not know why for years. Another factor in the nightmare equation of keeping the lockdown going.

I strongly suspect you're seeing the knock on effects of both a very stretched health service and people not accessing healthcare that's not covid related.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Just now, gingerjon said:

I strongly suspect you're seeing the knock on effects of both a very stretched health service and people not accessing healthcare that's not covid related.

They'd have to be "quick and clean" deaths like strokes and heart attacks, right? Cancer deaths are coming down the line, months and years away.

If I had chest pains today I'd be down A&E as quickly as I would normally.

"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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1 minute ago, tim2 said:

They'd have to be "quick and clean" deaths like strokes and heart attacks, right? Cancer deaths are coming down the line, months and years away.

That's fair. Dammit, my hunch may be wrong.

This almost never happens.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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