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Found out this morning that someone I work with at a distance has a 19 year old daughter with no known other issues on a ventilator with COVID-19. She’s now ending her 2nd week on that ventilator. 

It’s a massive con if people think it’s anywhere near safe out there to go back to “normal”

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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Sisters fella... 4th week ventilated   3rd week dialysis.

However, ventilator will be out this weekend and I guess that will be the final reckoning one way or t'other.

The encouraging news then. Physios had him out of his bed sat up on wednesday starting exercise to build up his muscle wastage

A long way to go to rehab and recovery... but here's hoping

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20 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said:

encouraging signs- this thread reached its peak  on page 228 

It's just a cold.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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52 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said:

encouraging signs- this thread reached its peak  on page 228 

Steady. Are you sure. Are you counting the thoughts that people had on that day too? Even though they hadn't yet written them down, they should be counted for that day. ?

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10 hours ago, Robin Evans said:

Sisters fella... 4th week ventilated   3rd week dialysis.

However, ventilator will be out this weekend and I guess that will be the final reckoning one way or t'other.

The encouraging news then. Physios had him out of his bed sat up on wednesday starting exercise to build up his muscle wastage

A long way to go to rehab and recovery... but here's hoping

He's had a really tough time of it.  Hopefully he continues to improve.

On Look North West tonight was the story of former soldier who has just been discharged from intensive care after 35 days - 35 days - on a ventilator.  He was laughing and joking on camera.  There is hope.

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Apologies if this has been posted already or elsewhere,

ONS have produced an interactive map showing where death certificates mention Covid-19.   You need to follow the link, scroll down till you reach Figure 5: Number of deaths involving COVID-19 in Middle Layer Super Output Areas. These are areas of approx. 7,500 population. Please reads the notes, too.  The current map covers from 1st March to 17th April.  It reports one death in our MLSO but obviously not the actual address but the centre of the area.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april

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26 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Apologies if this has been posted already or elsewhere,

ONS have produced an interactive map showing where death certificates mention Covid-19.   You need to follow the link, scroll down till you reach Figure 5: Number of deaths involving COVID-19 in Middle Layer Super Output Areas. These are areas of approx. 7,500 population. Please reads the notes, too.  The current map covers from 1st March to 17th April.  It reports one death in our MLSO but obviously not the actual address but the centre of the area.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april

St Helens is at 38 per 100,000 up to 17 April.  It'll be higher than that now as we are over 150 deaths (slower rate of deaths over the last week or so though).

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5 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

St Helens is at 38 per 100,000 up to 17 April.  It'll be higher than that now as we are over 150 deaths (slower rate of deaths over the last week or so though).

This map shows the actual numbers and the areas in which the deceased lived.. For example, Sutton Leach (MSOA St. Helens 020) shows 9 confirmed deaths.

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It is very difficult, if not impossible, to compare different countries. However, I've used this graph previously to imply comparative levels of testing. Now that I've updated it, maybe we can glean more from it, i.e. how well a country is doing to suppress the virus. 

It is particularly interesting that, from these countries, only the UK & Sweden show a significant increase over time. You can also see the step rises in the UK, Spain and Finland where the method of recording deaths was changed. The UK seems to level of after the 8th April, which is when they suggested was the peak.

There are many caveats and factors that could influence the proportion of deaths to positive cases (e.g. capability of the health system, overall health/age of the population, methods and accuracy of producing data, time since first infection, the delay between testing and potential death, etc.). However, based on the premise that most of these will be similar across developed countries, it does make interesting reading.

282746104_27-4-20deathsper1000cases.thumb.png.e1cfe3332102d7eec709b6650dae9673.png

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Thanks for that. I believe one of the probkems with drawing conclusions from international comparisons come from the probable differences in categorisation of care homes. What constitutes a care home in one country may or will be different in different countries. 

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2 hours ago, Wholly Trinity said:

It is very difficult, if not impossible, to compare different countries. However, I've used this graph previously to imply comparative levels of testing. Now that I've updated it, maybe we can glean more from it, i.e. how well a country is doing to suppress the virus. 

It is particularly interesting that, from these countries, only the UK & Sweden show a significant increase over time. You can also see the step rises in the UK, Spain and Finland where the method of recording deaths was changed. The UK seems to level of after the 8th April, which is when they suggested was the peak.

There are many caveats and factors that could influence the proportion of deaths to positive cases (e.g. capability of the health system, overall health/age of the population, methods and accuracy of producing data, time since first infection, the delay between testing and potential death, etc.). However, based on the premise that most of these will be similar across developed countries, it does make interesting reading.

282746104_27-4-20deathsper1000cases.thumb.png.e1cfe3332102d7eec709b6650dae9673.png

Again, just speculation, and this is more questions.

Firstly, when I see that, I suspect the measurement. The has tested far fewer people and counted fewer people.

Secondly, if valid, the figures suggest that the disease is spreading more through vulnerable people in the UK. That could be affected by the lack of PPE, which does not seem to be as severe in the rest of Europe, but it could also be any number of other things.

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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58 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Again, just speculation, and this is more questions.

Firstly, when I see that, I suspect the measurement. The has tested far fewer people and counted fewer people.

Secondly, if valid, the figures suggest that the disease is spreading more through vulnerable people in the UK. That could be affected by the lack of PPE, which does not seem to be as severe in the rest of Europe, but it could also be any number of other things.

Sorry, should have mentioned the data source. I take the daily data from the BBC which in turn gets it from Johns Hopkins university.

I then just mess around with the data, plotting different graphs to look for patterns & pass the time. 

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1 minute ago, Wholly Trinity said:

Sorry, should have mentioned the data source. I take the daily data from the BBC which in turn gets it from Johns Hopkins university.

I then just mess around with the data, plotting different graphs to look for patterns & pass the time. 

Thanks 

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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11 hours ago, JohnM said:

Apologies if this has been posted already or elsewhere,

ONS have produced an interactive map showing where death certificates mention Covid-19.   You need to follow the link, scroll down till you reach Figure 5: Number of deaths involving COVID-19 in Middle Layer Super Output Areas. These are areas of approx. 7,500 population. Please reads the notes, too.  The current map covers from 1st March to 17th April.  It reports one death in our MLSO but obviously not the actual address but the centre of the area.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april

This is a really helpful link, thanks.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

Again, just speculation, and this is more questions.

Firstly, when I see that, I suspect the measurement. The has tested far fewer people and counted fewer people.

Secondly, if valid, the figures suggest that the disease is spreading more through vulnerable people in the UK. That could be affected by the lack of PPE, which does not seem to be as severe in the rest of Europe, but it could also be any number of other things.

is PPE not so severe on other countries... I have no idea but wondering if your assuming or its factual.

The only news I've seen on PPE in other countries was that German doctors where posing naked (certain parts hidden of course)to demonstrate their concern for lack of PPE and of course the nakedness to show how vulnerable they feel without PPE. Copying what some French doctors were doing regards lack of PPE..

That was a story on BBC news web site sometime in the last week re: above.

On vulnerable people as in those in care homes I do wonder how our system compares with Germany or what they have done to protect such... as it would not appear to have same impact. Although from what one can gather from lack of coverage is that France, Spain & Italy have similar to us regards deaths in care homes or whatever they call similar.

 

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I've not actually watched this, but here it is anyway -

 

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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