coronavirus

[Saintslass]

3 hours ago, ckn said:

Obesity isn't a huge indicator for COVID-19 complications compared to other factors. For example, take two men with identical health, age and demographic background but one is white and the other is black, the black man is 4.2 times as likely to die or suffer serious complications than the white man according to some interim research on the figures.

Yes, 73.3% of people who end up in intensive care are overweight (25-30 BMI) or obese (30+ BMI) BUT, 64.3% of the UK is overweight or obese according to government figures. The 9% difference can easily be attributed to overweight folk being more likely to have another illness that makes you susceptible to harm, merely being overweight is not an indicator you're screwed. A perfectly healthy black man is far more likely to die or suffer serious illness than a very chubby and unfit white man.

Unfortunately, there are people with personal ego motives who are pretending that obesity is the biggest issue when it's clearly not.

I've no idea what your final snotty sentence referred to but the article I linked to was the I newsletter which in turn cited the Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium.  No clue as to who has the ego among that lot but clearly you have the inside track there.  Investigations by PHE and SAGE are ongoing for links with obesity, sex, age, comorbidity, inequality and ethnic background.  I didn't realise it was a race to see which has the greater impact.

[ckn]

1 minute ago, Saintslass said:

I've no idea what your final snotty sentence referred to but the article I linked to was the I newsletter which in turn cited the Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium.  No clue as to who has the ego among that lot but clearly you have the inside track there.  Investigations by PHE and SAGE are ongoing for links with obesity, sex, age, comorbidity, inequality and ethnic background.  I didn't realise it was a race to see which has the greater impact.

Did I refer to anyone on this forum? No. It's not all about you, you know. I didn't see your post from last night as you're still on ignore.

I only saw your post now as I'm in moderating mode.

I'm talking about media and their pretence that it's anything other than subjects they don't want raising for some reason.

[Saintslass]

1 minute ago, ckn said:

Did I refer to anyone on this forum? No. It's not all about you, you know. I didn't see your post from last night as you're still on ignore.

I only saw your post now as I'm in moderating mode.

I'm talking about media and their pretence that it's anything other than subjects they don't want raising for some reason.

I am fully aware it's not 'all about me' but I think your post was.  End of story.

[gingerjon]

1 hour ago, Damien said:

We are the start of August, obviously I'm not too hopeful but you are just in limbo until you get the official cancelation.

Yes, we were in the position that we'd had to pay the full amount (and located a credit card to do it for extra protection) just as the world was going nuts but when it wasn't clear just how long the insanity would be for or when and where would be affected. It's been a wait to get to the stage where it's cancelled and we've been offered a full refund (though they have tried to make us take vouchers). If we'd just put down a deposit we may have just chalked that us a bad experience and taken the loss, for simplicity's sake.

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

We're 'due' to go to Poland very late June (I've already scratched that out mentally, just waiting for official cancellation for refunds or possibly rebook for next year) and Iceland in September - I've not scratched that yet but it's in the doubtful file, but we'll definitely just postpone that to next year given chance.

[ckn]

 

 

[ckn]

2 hours ago, gingerjon said:

Does anyone have any understanding as to why?

Or is it like the male:female ratio (I presume that's still the case) where no-one really knows yet.

On the evidence, here's a very useful thread from Ben Goldacre:

 

[silverback]

Military tattoo  for august were off way back in feb,leaving booking for next year as its fab, were going to book a suprise week in malta for our 45th anniverary job but its looking like bridlington.

[Saintslass]

Well, after a week of an increased volume of traffic (but not an increased footfall), this morning is silent outside.  Hardly a car around and I've seen only one person, jogging up the nearby street.  That's a definite difference to this time during the rest of the week so maybe, just maybe the increase in traffic (around here anyway) is linked to an increase in working.  Here's hoping anyway.

[Damien]

News from NI regarding the number of care home deaths:

Almost half of coronavirus-related deaths in Northern Ireland have occurred in care homes.

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra) has published its weekly bulletin detailing the latest figures.

It records all fatalities with Covid-19 recorded on a death certificate.

Of the 516 deaths Nisra recorded by 1 May, 232, or 45%, occurred in care homes, 253 (49.0%) occurred in hospital and four (0.8%) occurred in hospices.

Twenty seven (5.2%) occurred at residential addresses or another location.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-52529270

[tim2]

1 hour ago, Saintslass said:

Well, after a week of an increased volume of traffic (but not an increased footfall), this morning is silent outside.  Hardly a car around and I've seen only one person, jogging up the nearby street.  That's a definite difference to this time during the rest of the week so maybe, just maybe the increase in traffic (around here anyway) is linked to an increase in working.  Here's hoping anyway.

For a change, we put the tent up in the garden and had a night under canvas (well, some form of material).

The noise from the Amazon Fulfillment Centre a mile away was incredible. Never realised how noisy it is 24/7. I always assumed it was M1 noise, but i doubt it was that at 4am this morning.

[Saintslass]

1 hour ago, tim2 said:

For a change, we put the tent up in the garden and had a night under canvas (well, some form of material).

The noise from the Amazon Fulfillment Centre a mile away was incredible. Never realised how noisy it is 24/7. I always assumed it was M1 noise, but i doubt it was that at 4am this morning.

Until the lockdown I never realised just how stressful I found the level of noise in this country.  I have enjoyed waking up to the sound of the dawn chorus, hearing the birds and the breeze rustling the leaves during the day.  I hate the thought of all that traffic noise coming back, not to mention the noise of drunken people arguing and vomiting on a Friday night.

[Futtocks]

14 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

Until the lockdown I never realised just how stressful I found the level of noise in this country.  I have enjoyed waking up to the sound of the dawn chorus, hearing the birds and the breeze rustling the leaves during the day.  I hate the thought of all that traffic noise coming back, not to mention the noise of drunken people arguing and vomiting on a Friday night.

You could always take the pledge.  

[Irish Saint]

3 hours ago, Damien said:

News from NI regarding the number of care home deaths:

Almost half of coronavirus-related deaths in Northern Ireland have occurred in care homes.

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra) has published its weekly bulletin detailing the latest figures.

It records all fatalities with Covid-19 recorded on a death certificate.

Of the 516 deaths Nisra recorded by 1 May, 232, or 45%, occurred in care homes, 253 (49.0%) occurred in hospital and four (0.8%) occurred in hospices.

Twenty seven (5.2%) occurred at residential addresses or another location.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-52529270

Damian I have calculated that two nursing homes one in Newtownabbey and one in Lisburn account for 8% of the total fatality rate.

[gingerjon]

37 minutes ago, Johnoco said:

A guy I work with is going back home to Poland and is just doing his last couple of shifts then going back a few days later. So somebody is flying there. He tells me that from what he’s heard, it’s not that much of an issue there. 

Flights resume into Poland from 9th May (tomorrow). There's quite a bit of detail here: https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/poland/coronavirus.

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

56 minutes ago, Johnoco said:

A guy I work with is going back home to Poland and is just doing his last couple of shifts then going back a few days later. So somebody is flying there. He tells me that from what he’s heard, it’s not that much of an issue there. 

I know they've started opening up a bit but the hotels we've booked are still closed afaik (no info from them otherwise) and at least one of the trips we're due to go on isn't operating at the moment. We've left everything open on the off chance of some minor miracle happening but like I said I've already cancelled it in my head. The other questions are if anyone wants Brits visiting given how affected we've been/are and whether I want to spend 2 and a bit hours in a sealed tube with a hundred or so others to get there 

[Damien]

1 hour ago, Irish Saint said:

Damian I have calculated that two nursing homes one in Newtownabbey and one in Lisburn account for 8% of the total fatality rate.

I saw an article about 14 deaths at a nursing home in Killyleagh too.

[ckn]

 

[ckn]

A very blunt post from a very senior doctor. 

[Saintslass]

35 minutes ago, ckn said:

A very blunt post from a very senior doctor. 

It's very difficult to tell from that angle how far away from each other each group of people is.  Clearly people are standing in groups - households (perfectly legitimate) - but it's hard to judge from this angle whether these households are standing too near to other households.  It's a bit like at a rugby match, when I stand behind the sticks I can never tell when a pass is forward. Depth is impossible to judge from that angle. If he'd wanted to properly tell people off then he needed to get a shot from the side. 

 

[gazza77]

4 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

It's very difficult to tell from that angle how far away from each other each group of people is.  Clearly people are standing in groups - households (perfectly legitimate) - but it's hard to judge from this angle whether these households are standing too near to other households.  It's a bit like at a rugby match, when I stand behind the sticks I can never tell when a pass is forward. Depth is impossible to judge from that angle. If he'd wanted to properly tell people off then he needed to get a shot from the side. 

 

The focal length of the lens is key. They may be a good distance apart, they may not be. 

https://petapixel.com/2020/05/04/these-photos-show-how-easy-it-is-to-create-fake-news-with-photography/

[Spidey]

3 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

It's very difficult to tell from that angle how far away from each other each group of people is.  Clearly people are standing in groups - households (perfectly legitimate) - but it's hard to judge from this angle whether these households are standing too near to other households.  It's a bit like at a rugby match, when I stand behind the sticks I can never tell when a pass is forward. Depth is impossible to judge from that angle. If he'd wanted to properly tell people off then he needed to get a shot from the side. 

 

Why are people stood in the road? Everything I’ve been seeing promoting VE Day parties was stay in your front garden

BBC not helping by being there either. Maybe if not there they’d stick to the guidance 

[Spidey]

Something else to get into the heads of the public 

[gingerjon]

46 minutes ago, ckn said:

A very blunt post from a very senior doctor. 

Looks like a standard width road that? Even allowing for compression front to back, I can’t see how the groups across the width of the road are in line with the guidance - and even if they are all from the same house, people see that on the TV and think, “Why not me?”

[gingerjon]

4 minutes ago, Spidey said:

Something else to get into the heads of the public 

I despair of academics and who think an interview is a good place just to test a proposition, a thought experiment if you will ...

Some very clever people don’t have the brains they were born with.