coronavirus

[GeordieSaint]

43 minutes ago, Damien said:

My holiday is scheduled for August and to be honest I'm just hoping it is all cancelled now. I just don't fancy travelling at that time, even though it is still 3 months away.

Turkey in mid-September for this household; I’d be surprised if we are allowed.

[gingerjon]

39 minutes ago, Damien said:

If those countries open up and millions of people visit from the world over it could be pretty disastrous for not just those countries but also the one the people are coming from.

As far as I can tell, even the most tourism dependent countries are locked down right now and/or have quarantine that would make travel there impossible. The health system in many of those places simply wouldn't cope with even a handful of cases. As an example, I just looked at Aruba, one of the places where our splendid 'cruise in the time of coronavirus' stopped, and its borders are completely closed right now. The most tentative of tentative proposals is to start reopening them in about 6 weeks - and even that's not guaranteed and seems that it will likely be followed by a period of requiring visitors to quarantine (so would be impossible for tourists).

And this is a country almost wholly dependent on tourism.

[graveyard johnny]

Germanys r rate goes back up after easing lockdown

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

11 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said:

Germanys r rate goes back up after easing lockdown

Germany's estimated (by the Robert Koch Institute) R number 1st-9th May: 0.79, 0.78, 0.74, 0.76, 0.71, 0.65, 0.71, 0.83, 1.10.

[Robin Evans]

2 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Germany's estimated (by the Robert Koch Institute) R number 1st-9th May: 0.79, 0.78, 0.74, 0.76, 0.71, 0.65, 0.71, 0.83, 1.10.

Cheers for that ltss.... very interesting stats 

[redjonn]

10 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said:

Germanys r rate goes back up after easing lockdown

I think it's expected to go up from a point when any easing of restrictions. The key is keeping the rise as little as possible.

I don't see how any easing can reduce the so called R... I guess the key is that its manageable. Otherwise we're never ever come out of restrictions until a cure or virus is found.

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

19 minutes ago, redjonn said:

I think it's expected to go up from a point when any easing of restrictions. The key is keeping the rise as little as possible.

I don't see how any easing can reduce the so called R... I guess the key is that its manageable. Otherwise we're never ever come out of restrictions until a cure or virus is found.

Not sure how much effect the abattoir outbreak has had on their R calculation in the last couple of days. Some more details on how it's changed over time: I believe that restrictions started to be relaxed on 15th April when R was estimated to be 0.9. A week later (22nd) it was still 0.9 and remained so up to and including the 28th. The method of estimating was changed on 29th (essentially moving from a 3 to 4 day average of new cases) when R was estimated to be 0.75 and on 30th 0.76.

Edit: their comment on R number yesterday

The number of incident cases estimated using the nowcasting approach is presented as a moving 4-day average to compensate for random effects of individual days (Fig. 5). With this approach, the point estimate of R for a given day is estimated as the quotient of the number of incident cases on this day divided by the number of incident cases four days earlier. The current estimate is R= 1.10 (95% prediction interval: 0.90- 1,34) and is based on electronically notified cases as of 09/05/2020, 12:00 AM. Today’s estimate of the reproduction number R is above 1. Any interpretation of this number needs to take into account that the estimate is linked to a degree of uncertainty that is reflected by the prediction interval published daily alongside the actual number. A low number of case reports could increase the statistical variation. Thus, it is too early to infer whether the number of new infections will continue to decrease as in passing weeks or increase again. The increase of the reproduction number R necessitates a close monitoring of the situation in the coming days.   

[Robin Evans]

41 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Not sure how much effect the abattoir outbreak has had on their R calculation in the last couple of days. Some more details on how it's changed over time: I believe that restrictions started to be relaxed on 15th April when R was estimated to be 0.9. A week later (22nd) it was still 0.9 and remained so up to and including the 28th. The method of estimating was changed on 29th (essentially moving from a 3 to 4 day average of new cases) when R was estimated to be 0.75 and on 30th 0.76.

Edit: their comment on R number yesterday

The number of incident cases estimated using the nowcasting approach is presented as a moving 4-day average to compensate for random effects of individual days (Fig. 5). With this approach, the point estimate of R for a given day is estimated as the quotient of the number of incident cases on this day divided by the number of incident cases four days earlier. The current estimate is R= 1.10 (95% prediction interval: 0.90- 1,34) and is based on electronically notified cases as of 09/05/2020, 12:00 AM. Today’s estimate of the reproduction number R is above 1. Any interpretation of this number needs to take into account that the estimate is linked to a degree of uncertainty that is reflected by the prediction interval published daily alongside the actual number. A low number of case reports could increase the statistical variation. Thus, it is too early to infer whether the number of new infections will continue to decrease as in passing weeks or increase again. The increase of the reproduction number R necessitates a close monitoring of the situation in the coming days.   

I wouldn't bet against our R number going airborne in about ten days 

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

3 minutes ago, Robin Evans said:

I wouldn't bet against our R number going airborne in about ten days 

Me neither.

[silverback]

I thought we had eased down this morning by looks of whats happening around my area,Do we take into account those who have said sod it way before everyone else,One thing have learnt in last few weeks is we have a lot of selfish/dumb folks in our area for sure.How the hell can you stay safe crammed in a cafe waiting for sarnies.This wont be over for months/years.

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

18 minutes ago, Robin Evans said:

I wouldn't bet against our R number going airborne in about ten days 

Germany's R number up again today current estimate is R= 1.13 (95% prediction interval: 0.94- 1.35) although RKI still advising caution on interpretation.

[Wolford6]

56 minutes ago, Robin Evans said:

I wouldn't bet against our R number going airborne in about ten days 

I think you're flying a kite.

[gazza77]

12 minutes ago, Wolford6 said:

I think you're flying a kite.

I guess we'll see who is correct in 10 days time! 

[glossop saint]

8 hours ago, Robin Evans said:

Depends.... the numbers would have to be drastically reduced ....

But, if I could go to rural france, stay out of the crowds.... keep a lot of distance away from others....  I'd still give it some consideration....

I go to Brittany most years.  Very rural, other than a shop you can go for the whole week without seeing anyone.  I'd go if I could, but I must admit that I would be worried about how I would be welcomed.  Equally if I was to go to North Wales or the Lakes now or within the next month or so I'd worry about the welcome.

[Hullfan]

Can't take this PM serious. He should be sacked for this sham, he led us into an absolute visible enemy. He can say its an invisible enemy, how is that!??? This was seen coming for weeks/months before he reacted. If you voted him in as PM your as much to blame for this as the Chinese are 

[DavidM]

“ you can drive to other destinations “ ... the lakes will be full now . A lot of that was very very vague , even contradictory. Go out n about but be careful . Sounds great IF common sense and responsibility were widespread , which we’ve seen they often aren’t 

[ckn]

Remember, political stuff on the political thread. 

[Gerrumonside ref]

[Wholly Trinity]

Brazil has become the 6th country with over 10k deaths.

It's not over. Stay safe.

[Copa]

This whole virus thing is saving me money.

I no longer drive to work 5 days a week, parking has been made free if I have to go in, I don’t buy lunches or browse the shopping complex next to my office. I also get to sleep in before going to my “work from home” desk.

All my kids’ sports have also stopped, school camps are being refunded and cinemas have closed.

I’m currently financially better off thanks to the virus. 

[Saintslass]

2 hours ago, Copa said:

This whole virus thing is saving me money.

I no longer drive to work 5 days a week, parking has been made free if I have to go in, I don’t buy lunches or browse the shopping complex next to my office. I also get to sleep in before going to my “work from home” desk.

All my kids’ sports have also stopped, school camps are being refunded and cinemas have closed.

I’m currently financially better off thanks to the virus. 

Me too but I've put on weight.

However, there are plenty who are in a tough position and going to work will be key to helping that.  The problem, as with opening schools or anything else, is probably more about getting people to work rather than their safety at work (bar the minority of irresponsible employers of course).

[Wholly Trinity]

3 hours ago, Copa said:

This whole virus thing is saving me money.

I no longer drive to work 5 days a week, parking has been made free if I have to go in, I don’t buy lunches or browse the shopping complex next to my office. I also get to sleep in before going to my “work from home” desk.

All my kids’ sports have also stopped, school camps are being refunded and cinemas have closed.

I’m currently financially better off thanks to the virus. 

I've just been to buy petrol for the first time in 2 months. 

Other than half a dozen trips to the office, that's been my longest journey in that time. 

Not saving much though as a full tank for my bike was £3.50  

 

[Marauder]

16 hours ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Germany's estimated (by the Robert Koch Institute) R number 1st-9th May: 0.79, 0.78, 0.74, 0.76, 0.71, 0.65, 0.71, 0.83, 1.10.

1.3 yesterday

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

14 hours ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Germany's R number up again today current estimate is R= 1.13 (95% prediction interval: 0.94- 1.35) although RKI still advising caution on interpretation.

 

1 minute ago, Marauder said:

1.3 yesterday

Yep. I'd added the post above after. Even if at the lower end of the confidence range they're getting pretty close to 1. Today's number will be interesting to see if the upward trend continues (infection numbers seem to follow a somewhat wavy trend).

[Damien]

4 hours ago, Copa said:

This whole virus thing is saving me money.

I no longer drive to work 5 days a week, parking has been made free if I have to go in, I don’t buy lunches or browse the shopping complex next to my office. I also get to sleep in before going to my “work from home” desk.

All my kids’ sports have also stopped, school camps are being refunded and cinemas have closed.

I’m currently financially better off thanks to the virus. 

A lot of people are like that.