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4 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

Yes.  I saw a tweet from the Peak District national park and the place which featured in their tweet about not going to the Peak District was very busy apparently and no toilets were available.  So what happened?  People used the street instead.  Lovely.  Not.  

But I think the day has gone alright overall.  Even the Guardian could only find two incidents of real busy-ness (one of which was the same place in the Peak District - maybe there is a lesson in there for the Peak District National Park!).  Mostly it seems places are reporting that their areas were busy but manageable.  Those interviewed in the Yorkshire Dales on TV tonight said everyone had been socially distancing and the rep from the Dales National Park said they hadn't had any problems.

I saw a picture of a park in Birkenhead where a protest at the lockdown was supposed to happen.  At the time of the picture there appeared to be more police there than people, and nobody had turned up to protest!

Given the lack of news on the subject when I watched TV and read the online sites, so far so good.  

Apart from the various protests, including the man with the placard saying "I am a FREE I am not MAN a NUMBER", who got arrested, presumably by a mob of English teachers. Or the banner reading "FREEEDOM" or the flag that referred to "Egland". Not to mention the div in full camo with a placard still blaming 5G.

Oh, and Piers Corbyn was also arrested. But we hardly needed to mention something that inevitable, did we?

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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Here's a few...

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Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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On 15/05/2020 at 17:33, Bob8 said:

Let’s hope so. That would be incredible. I am wary of press reports, but would love to read that. I always suspect these things are hypothetical back calculations. 

A couple of links to stuff on the Imperial and Oxford models

https://www.oxfordstudent.com/2020/03/29/the-oxford-study-on-covid-19-is-just-too-good-to-be-true/ 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-31/what-the-coronavirus-models-are-trying-to-tell-us

The question asked by the Imperial paper is: What strategies will change the epidemic curve of Covid-19 and flatten it? The Oxford paper asks a different question: Has Covid-19 already spread widely?

The Imperial approach, explains Panovska-Griffiths, is a stochastic model (the Greek root word means “able to guess”); by definition, results will vary depending on which probabilistic equations are assumed to best capture reality. For cases in which data are limited, stochastic model predictions can swing wildly as a function of the initial assumptions. Add new data and the result can be seismically different, which is what happened when the team input new data from Italy and China and drastically altered their predictions of the severity of the disease’s impact.

…….

Their paper [Oxford] (based on a model known as a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model), which also hasn’t been peer reviewed, suggests the virus may have been spreading a month before we were aware there was a viral enemy in our midst and that we may be approaching broader immunity. Yet, that’s just one of the many scenarios that fits the model (best explained, actually,  by Harvard postdoc James Hay). The number of reported deaths could also be explained by a smaller number of infections and a larger proportion who are at risk of hospitalization. 

…...

Gupta, one of the lead researchers in the Oxford study, has suggested its main message comes through loud and clear: Only through testing for antibodies can real certainty about rates of infection be obtained. But Cambridge University Professor James Wood, head of the Department of Veterinary Medicine and a researcher in infection dynamics and disease, is among those who worry the model will only muddy the waters. The paper, he said, over-speculates and “is open to gross over-interpretation by others.”

 

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28 minutes ago, Futtocks said:

Apart from the various protests, including the man with the placard saying "I am a FREE I am not MAN a NUMBER", who got arrested, presumably by a mob of English teachers. Or the banner reading "FREEEDOM" or the flag that referred to "Egland". Not to mention the div in full camo with a placard still blaming 5G.

Oh, and Piers Corbyn was also arrested. But we hardly needed to mention something that inevitable, did we?

That was in Hyde Park in London though, not at the park in Birkenhead which I spoke about.

lol at the mention of Piers Corbyn!  I was surprised he wasn't with his brother. 

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Thought this was quite good -

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With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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9 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

lol at the mention of Piers Corbyn!  I was surprised he wasn't with his brother. 

Even the most demonised portrayals of Jeremy Corbyn don't make him out as crazed and obnoxious as his brother actually is. 

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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21 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

lol at the mention of Piers Corbyn!  I was surprised he wasn't with his brother. 

Johnson used to quote Piers positively when talking about climate change.  Some of us lol'd back then too.  

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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11 minutes ago, Futtocks said:

Even the most demonised portrayals of Jeremy Corbyn don't make him out as crazed and obnoxious as his brother actually is. 

To be honest, I have no idea what Piers Corbyn is like as I've not taken any notice of anything about him but if he's anything like his brother then he will indeed be obnoxious.  

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1 minute ago, Saintslass said:

To be honest, I have no idea what Piers Corbyn is like as I've not taken any notice of anything about him but if he's anything like his brother then he will indeed be obnoxious.  

Johnson used to phone him all the time, and wrote about it in the Telegraph.  Johnson described him as a 'great physicist and meteorologist'.

He was a crank back then too, but useful if you want a bit of climate change denialism to sell a few papers.  

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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1 minute ago, Saintslass said:

To be honest, I have no idea what Piers Corbyn is like as I've not taken any notice of anything about him but if he's anything like his brother then he will indeed be obnoxious.  

Jeremy is pig-headed, dogmatic, naive, stuck in the past and was (although he'd never admit it) probably terrified of winning. 

Piers is more on David Icke's level when it comes to the beliefs he propounds. In fact, his views on climate change have seen him travel so far Left, his claims have started being accepted by the extreme Right.

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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Ryanair flying from July 1st - does this look adequate to you?

https://www.ryanair.com/gb/en/useful-info/healthy-flying

"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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3 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

As a bike rider - i have to say unless they took lids off and sat next to each other on benches - how ere they a danger to anyone (Inc themselves) 

https://www.motorcyclenews.com/news/coronavirus-impact-motorbikes/

Assuming they keep their helmets on (I haven't heard the term 'lid' for decades!  Is it still in common use?) then they will be a whole lot safer than anyone wearing one of those flimsy face masks, that's for sure.

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1 hour ago, SSoutherner said:

Mate has their test result back

 

Image may contain: possible text that says 'Your Covid-19 9 test has come back UNCLEAR. Please seek a repeat test via the route you used previously. If you don't have symptoms, you don't need to self-isolate.'

Son had the same . Went back to the Humber Bridge test area for a 2nd attempt . Got the all clear 4/5 days later . Wife used same facility same result .

   

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1 minute ago, henage said:

Son had the same . Went back to the Humber Bridge test area for a 2nd attempt . Got the all clear 4/5 days later . Wife used same facility same result .

In a way, that's a bit reassuring, that we're not being fed a confident yes/no, but that if results are not conclusive, people are being recalled for another test. It suggests that scientific process is taking place, instead of politically-led optimism.

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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5 minutes ago, Futtocks said:

In a way, that's a bit reassuring, that we're not being fed a confident yes/no, but that if results are not conclusive, people are being recalled for another test. It suggests that scientific process is taking place, instead of politically-led optimism.

Either that or it means "we lost track of your test in the chaos, please try again" ?

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1 minute ago, Wholly Trinity said:

Either that or it means "we lost track of your test in the chaos, please try again" ?

Whilst I can see your point ? if I understand things correctly, the reality is that the test looks for 2 genes specific to the Covid-19 virus. If only one is detected the test is classified as 'inconclusive' and another test carried out.

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12 minutes ago, Wholly Trinity said:

Either that or it means "we lost track of your test in the chaos, please try again" ?

Even then, this response is better than "oh, it'll be all right; stop worrying and get back to work".

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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3 hours ago, SSoutherner said:

As a bike rider - i have to say unless they took lids off and sat next to each other on benches - how ere they a danger to anyone (Inc themselves) 

https://www.motorcyclenews.com/news/coronavirus-impact-motorbikes/

I was out on 2 wheels today, and did about 140 miles across from home round the forest of Bowland and back. It's the first time out on the bike this year, however having done next to no travel at all, in the last two days I've also driven to fetch the wife from work and to the animal feed merchants in the last two days. Thoughts after this are:

Anywhere a car can be fit on a country road to park, it is. No evidence of lack of social distancing however. 

Lots of motorbikes about. Only one place where social gathering was an issue. 

Lots of of evedince of family walks. Great to see parents and kids out. 

Lots of couples of for walks. Is exercise on the increase? 

A handful of groups of people not distancing. Completely offset by people chatting across walls, fences, etc. with neighbours. Is social interaction increasing? 

There are issues with social distancing, and obvious risks. From what I've witnessed today however, is suggest overwhelming positives. 

 

 

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9 hours ago, SSoutherner said:

As a bike rider - i have to say unless they took lids off and sat next to each other on benches - how ere they a danger to anyone (Inc themselves) 

https://www.motorcyclenews.com/news/coronavirus-impact-motorbikes/

Lids off stood right next to each other; on the middle of the local garage. Not a great idea and has annoyed the locals. 

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