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I watched an interview yesterday with the chap who runs the home for the Chelsea Pensioners, where some of the residents died from and quite a number were infected by Covid.  Apparently the home locked down a full two weeks before the national lockdown was announced and the staff put in place all manner of policies and procedures to protect themselves from the disease, but it still managed to get in.  The home is still locked down but the residents have been able to enjoy some socially distanced outdoor events among themselves which is good to hear.

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I knew it. Something dodgy about men who can’t even keep hair on their heads. 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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12 hours ago, Saintslass said:

You say that but there is one thing I'm curious about, because I genuinely don't understand what the implications may be.

In the UK, it is still the case that the highest number of daily deaths occurred on 8 April.  This is still considered to be the peak of the virus here.  According to the scientists I have heard speak on the matter, in order to get to the stage where someone dies from Covid 19, a person will usually have been infected on average between 21 and 28 days prior to their death (obviously some people spend a long time in hospital before they die; likewise some die very quickly after becoming infected).  Therefore, that would suggest the peak of infections occurred around 11 to 18 March, ie before our full lockdown came into being.

Okidoki, 

I think the main thing you're missing here is who was tested and when.

It may be that there is 21/28 days between infection and death, but at what stage of that process were people actually tested and confirmed?

There is an average of 5 days between infection and showing symptoms.

Covid-Progression-Chart-scaled.jpg

https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/

The testing regime in March was so poor that the track and trace was abandoned. Most people were not tested, even with symptoms. Generally, only those who were hospitalised actually got a test when ARDS set in. For the worst cases, how long was it between testing/confirmation and death? a week?

The effect of the lockdown would be quite immediate on the number of cases, but the start was rather stuttering with an 'informal' advisory stage from 16th, official announcement 23rd and actual formal stage on 25th. 

A gradual increase in testing meant that the number of cases continued to rise as the scope was broader. 

The number of daily deaths peaked on 8th April, but didn't really start reducing until a week or so later, a month after the start of lockdown.

I had to get data from the ONS website as I only collected data myself after lockdown.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases

Interestingly, the peak of cases and peak of deaths were only one day apart. This is most likely because of the inconsistent nature and variable scope of the testing regime.

image.png.ea7ba0ce7a6e3c36adb53cd10a494baf.png

image.png.22fa39bd643984ea48ae7bbbe0136bc1.png

The discussion of why it took so long to organise the lockdown is obviously for a different thread.

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16 hours ago, Saintslass said:

You say that but there is one thing I'm curious about, because I genuinely don't understand what the implications may be.

In the UK, it is still the case that the highest number of daily deaths occurred on 8 April.  This is still considered to be the peak of the virus here.  According to the scientists I have heard speak on the matter, in order to get to the stage where someone dies from Covid 19, a person will usually have been infected on average between 21 and 28 days prior to their death (obviously some people spend a long time in hospital before they die; likewise some die very quickly after becoming infected).  Therefore, that would suggest the peak of infections occurred around 11 to 18 March, ie before our full lockdown came into being.

I may be misunderstanding, but wouldn't that be expected? Coming up with the conclusion that the virus was rifling across the population prior to lockdown would be a sensible one wouldn't it? 

I would suggest that the lockdown created the peak 3 weeks later, no lockdown would surely have meant continued infection and the numbers would have kept increasing past that April 8th.

Therefore we could suggest that the lockdown meant we created a peak on the 8th, and that had we locked down earlier, the peak would have been earlier and possibly lower as fewer people would have been infected. 

I also saw a number of 18 days for death from infection. 

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31 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

CV19 cases for Iran. Lockdown was begun to be eased around 20th April; you can see the effect

iran-.png

That is scary , but is it a result of increased testing ?

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29 minutes ago, GUBRATS said:

That is scary , but is it a result of increased testing ?

Can't find any data for testing in Iran but I suspect not. Here's the deaths graph. Deaths look as if they've started (slowly) increasing from around 16th May, about 2 weeks after number of cases started to increase again.

iran-d.png

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On 06/06/2020 at 17:56, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

CV19 cases for Iran. Lockdown was begun to be eased around 20th April; you can see the effect

iran-.png

It's Sunday, so this prompted me to have a trawl through the data I've collected and have a little look and it seems @GUBRATS' intuition may be reliable. It makes interesting reading

I've used deaths per 1000 positive cases to give a guide to the level and scope of testing taking place, as I've done before.

The pattern for new cases matches that above:

image.png.d9daea96c2b4b092f434200be52fdeac.png

However, the number of deaths does not seem to have risen significantly:

image.png.dcabd13d9f54fc56c4ce36033deaba8c.png

Added to the evidence of the case fatality rate decreasing, it would seem that they're doing OK in Iran.

image.png.f73a95289eabcdc61e20b52e208244ac.png

In particular, if you look at April and May in isolation, the number of cases has stayed roughly the same and the number of deaths has about halved, which implies that they are really getting on top of testing and have the outbreak under control. They've released the lockdown when they are ready to test & trace... do you think it will catch on?

image.png.3bce65be70b4cca18078530528e34ea7.png

Unless, of course, the data are junk.

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52 minutes ago, Wholly Trinity said:

It's Sunday, so this prompted me to have a trawl through the data I've collected and have a little look and it seems @GUBRATS' intuition may be reliable. It makes interesting reading

I've used deaths per 1000 positive cases to give a guide to the level and scope of testing taking place, as I've done before.

The pattern for new cases matches that above:

image.png.d9daea96c2b4b092f434200be52fdeac.png

However, the number of deaths does not seem to have risen significantly:

image.png.dcabd13d9f54fc56c4ce36033deaba8c.png

Added to the evidence of the case fatality rate decreasing, it would seem that they're doing OK in Iran.

image.png.f73a95289eabcdc61e20b52e208244ac.png

In particular, if you look at April and May in isolation, the number of cases has stayed roughly the same and the number of deaths has about halved, which implies that they are really getting on top of testing and have the outbreak under control. They've released the lockdown when they are ready to test & trace... do you think it will catch on?

image.png.3bce65be70b4cca18078530528e34ea7.png

Unless, of course, the data are junk.

I've been having a bit more of a dig since making my post and there certainly appears to be no info on test numbers. As you say the (at least so far) lack of increasing death figures suggests that test numbers are increasing (and/or improved recording?) - the next week or two will likely tell. One thing I have seen is a report that most of the new cases are 'housewives' and that it's thought they may be catching/spreading the virus through lack of social distancing controls when shopping. The government there have warned folk to start taking their personal responsibilities seriously, otherwise they'll clamp down again.

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Interesting situation where I live in the Channel Islands. The Island initially had over 250 cases and 13 deaths during March and April. However, it hasn't recorded a single case in 39 days, and the last active case recovered over 3 weeks ago.

The airport and ports are virtually shut down until the end of August. You can leave but if you come back to the Island you must quarantine for 14 days or face a £10k fine.

Now it is inevitable that once the borders are reopened properly that some cases will creep in. We have had pubs, restaurants, gyms, cinemas, hairdressers open here for the last 2-3 weeks - this is phase 4 of 6. All schools are open for all year groups.

Is there actually a case where for the next couple of months we can actually forget about social distancing and enjoy the summer, hug people and start socialising properly? When it gets to the best part of 6-8 weeks without a case in a closed bordered population of 60k - exactly what risk are we talking about here compared to other health and life risks?

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5 minutes ago, Scubby said:

Interesting situation where I live in the Channel Islands. The Island initially had over 250 cases and 13 deaths during March and April. However, it hasn't recorded a single case in 39 days, and the last active case recovered over 3 weeks ago.

The airport and ports are virtually shut down until the end of August. You can leave but if you come back to the Island you must quarantine for 14 days or face a £10k fine.

Now it is inevitable that once the borders are reopened properly that some cases will creep in. We have had pubs, restaurants, gyms, cinemas, hairdressers open here for the last 2-3 weeks - this is phase 4 of 6. All schools are open for all year groups.

Is there actually a case where for the next couple of months we can actually forget about social distancing and enjoy the summer, hug people and start socialising properly? When it gets to the best part of 6-8 weeks without a case in a closed bordered population of 60k - exactly what risk are we talking about here compared to other health and life risks?

I think that situation is pretty unique but as long as borders are closed and a very strict quarantine is in place then I see no reason why normality could not be resumed. Obviously there is a risk around goods imported but if correct precautions are taken then that should be minimal.

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Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his lungs.. he needed dialysis, ventilation and a tracheotomy. His consultant is highly regarded and saw a possibility for him so persevered when others may not have.

Nature did its bit and he is now at home in rehab. It will take a while but thankfully he didn't make the daily stats.

I may well have a drink now. 

?

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1 hour ago, Robin Evans said:

Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his lungs.. he needed dialysis, ventilation and a tracheotomy. His consultant is highly regarded and saw a possibility for him so persevered when others may not have.

Nature did its bit and he is now at home in rehab. It will take a while but thankfully he didn't make the daily stats.

I may well have a drink now. 

?

Thank you for that!

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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1 hour ago, Robin Evans said:

Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his lungs.. he needed dialysis, ventilation and a tracheotomy. His consultant is highly regarded and saw a possibility for him so persevered when others may not have.

Nature did its bit and he is now at home in rehab. It will take a while but thankfully he didn't make the daily stats.

I may well have a drink now. 

?

That's great news.

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2 hours ago, Scubby said:

Interesting situation where I live in the Channel Islands. The Island initially had over 250 cases and 13 deaths during March and April. However, it hasn't recorded a single case in 39 days, and the last active case recovered over 3 weeks ago.

The airport and ports are virtually shut down until the end of August. You can leave but if you come back to the Island you must quarantine for 14 days or face a £10k fine.

Now it is inevitable that once the borders are reopened properly that some cases will creep in. We have had pubs, restaurants, gyms, cinemas, hairdressers open here for the last 2-3 weeks - this is phase 4 of 6. All schools are open for all year groups.

Is there actually a case where for the next couple of months we can actually forget about social distancing and enjoy the summer, hug people and start socialising properly? When it gets to the best part of 6-8 weeks without a case in a closed bordered population of 60k - exactly what risk are we talking about here compared to other health and life risks?

The Isle of Man is in a similar situation.  No new cases, no recent deaths, etc.  

The UK is down to 77 reported deaths over the last 24 hours (weekend caveat in place as always).  Damn shame about these protests.  We are making serious progress but it could all go boobies up thanks to the madness on our streets.

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Sad news though that the sister of a friend has succumbed to the virus. She was 42.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Things are looking really bad!

Mrs Ford, from west London, told The Sunday Times : "It felt like death. "I ached terribly in every muscle and joint for five days and was too groggy even to go to the Eliot prize for poetry."

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/brit-53-could-be-new-coronavirus-patient-zero-after-catching-before-first-known-case/ar-BB15ayWd?ocid=msedgntp

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  • ckn locked and unlocked this topic

A whole bunch of clearly political posts moved to the right forum. Please remember to post political points there. If you don't have access to the political forum then please don't post political points on AOB, that is not the purpose of AOB.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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I am presuming my post about the spike of cases in Teheran and Tel Aviv was moved in error so I am repeating it here. 

This corresponds to fears of localised surges that we are being alerted about.

 

 

 

 

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UK now down to 55 deaths (weekend caveat as usual) and a drop in recorded positive infections too.  I'm dreading the end of June though because that's when we could see the impact of the marches filtering through (or zapping through, depending on the number of initial infections of course).

It was interesting at the Covid press conference to hear the update on the situation in care homes.  Things have really improved in the care homes based on the figures shared today.  And it seems there is a concerted effort, in part brought about by learning from outbreaks in care homes elsewhere in the world, about how to keep Covid infections under control in our care homes.

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One for those monitoring the numbers by region, how does London vary so much versus some of the other regions? 

In terms of hospitalisations, London had a far higher peak than every other area, but it has had a sharp drop and is now lower than many areas, including the NW and Midlands - what makes London unique here? 

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