coronavirus

[ckn]

2 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

I'm not opposing the need for local lockdowns nor this specific one. But my further opinions will need to go elsewhere.

Everything is rammed down here today and I noted Eastbourne on an earlier list. Not that confident we'll be okay for too long here.

Thank you. We can keep solid informational and discussion things here but grumbling about the politics behind it can go behind closed doors.

[redjonn]

On 26/07/2020 at 22:23, ckn said:

COVID deaths in Spain in the last 5 days = 12

Deaths in England in the last 5 days = 426 

I’m not making any political point, just highlighting our national idiocy in pointing fingers at other nations. 

I agree but wish we would be clear about comparisons. That is explain how each is compiling and publishing so we know its apples for apples.  That is confirm the way data is collected, complied and published.

We know for example PHS (as in scotland) do it different than PHE.

Otherwise I take it as just politicising, even if not intended. 

[redjonn]

On 28/07/2020 at 06:38, shaun mc said:

In Spain, the Balearics and Canaries are about a 90th of the Aragon & Catalunya regions (according to the BBC last night). If you include the islands on an average rate then you'd have to include a lot of other European countries, where there are rises in average infections

And the other way - it would be no surprise if UK visitors were barred from many countries given our continuing infection rates

I would agree to an extent.

First instinct should be to stop, and as Spanish government provide updated information then you relax certain area's.

I have no doubt the islands will be removed off the quarantines list.

You also have to trust whatever information based upon how surveillance is being done.  I generally trust ours now we have increased testing and ONS do their weekly surveillance.

I don't know if other countries are doing the ongoing surveillance better or not as good as say ONS and the amount of testing we are doing now.

I guess you have to trust the data from other countries, and that may well be better but I guess any expert advise to ministers will have to take account of that. I mean given how important holiday industry is to Spain I would always have my doubts.... same as we have doubts here if we think government is putting economy ahead of health as many like to accuse.

[graveyard johnny]

1- the lockdown was never done properly from day one

2- certain communities and groups have not followed rules and just done what they like from day one

3- now we will have to pay again for the ineptness of the govt and the selfishness of people who cant do whats required because they think it doesnt apply to them from day one

[GUBRATS]

2 hours ago, ckn said:

Here's the document that that pic came from.

The most interesting is p7, Figure 10 and p8, Figure 11. Figure 11 shows that localised lockdowns do work. Awful timing, but very necessary.

And no, you can't have a grumble about the government on that, if you want to do that then you can go post on Politics.

If only ?

[Spidey]

2 hours ago, ckn said:

Here's the document that that pic came from.

The most interesting is p7, Figure 10 and p8, Figure 11. Figure 11 shows that localised lockdowns do work. Awful timing, but very necessary.

And no, you can't have a grumble about the government on that, if you want to do that then you can go post on Politics.

Is there something wrong with that link or at my end. It just sends me to the start of this thread

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

2 minutes ago, Spidey said:

Is there something wrong with that link or at my end. It just sends me to the start of this thread

Does for me too

[ckn]

1 hour ago, Spidey said:

Is there something wrong with that link or at my end. It just sends me to the start of this thread

Hmm. I’ll fix later. 

[Red Willow]

Well I live in Greater Manchester and now under the new rules. My neighbour had at least 3 visitors in his garden until it started raining.  He is in his 50s not some bit of a kid.

I will follow the new guidelines, it will mean not visiting grandchildren or my elderly mum. I haven't been out much other than food shopping or the garden centre.

[ckn]

2 hours ago, Spidey said:

Is there something wrong with that link or at my end. It just sends me to the start of this thread

PDF, p10, item 14

[Saintslass]

4 hours ago, ckn said:

There's a very complex process behind this that I'm actually very supportive of and it makes sense. For example, a very intensively urban area with a minor but significant infection rate is a far higher risk than a rural area that has a higher rate. We'd expect the latter to burn out far quicker but the former could run away quickly if not managed.

An example, pre-COVID London, people will tolerate sardine-like public transport and personal space is non-existent, but rural folk get all nervous and sweaty if you get within 2m of them.

That's why the Cumbria issue is less of an immediate problem than Bradford or Manchester.

Personally, I'd have taken a harder stance, but then I'm not an expert on this sort of thing, and they've clearly learned their lessons from Leicester that they can't wait until a peak before intervening.

Liverpool is a current example of what you are saying I think.  News just in (locally) that the Liverpool PHE/council/mayor etc are asking people in the Toxteth/Dingle areas of Liverpool to stop visiting other households as there have been 20 new cases in that area alone this last week, which is I think over half the total number of cases in Liverpool for the same period.  20 cases across a whole city would probably not be considered huge but in two areas of that city and within a week suggests a problem.

I think the Leicester situation is proving quite useful actually.  Nobody wants to be Leicester and that the government was willing to close down Leicester like that means people may take seriously the preventative steps where before the Leicester lockdown they may not have.

[Saintslass]

47 minutes ago, Red Willow said:

Well I live in Greater Manchester and now under the new rules. My neighbour had at least 3 visitors in his garden until it started raining.  He is in his 50s not some bit of a kid.

I will follow the new guidelines, it will mean not visiting grandchildren or my elderly mum. I haven't been out much other than food shopping or the garden centre.

Red, they aren't guidelines.  They are the law. 

[Saintslass]

3 hours ago, redjonn said:

I would agree to an extent.

First instinct should be to stop, and as Spanish government provide updated information then you relax certain area's.

I have no doubt the islands will be removed off the quarantines list.

You also have to trust whatever information based upon how surveillance is being done.  I generally trust ours now we have increased testing and ONS do their weekly surveillance.

I don't know if other countries are doing the ongoing surveillance better or not as good as say ONS and the amount of testing we are doing now.

I guess you have to trust the data from other countries, and that may well be better but I guess any expert advise to ministers will have to take account of that. I mean given how important holiday industry is to Spain I would always have my doubts.... same as we have doubts here if we think government is putting economy ahead of health as many like to accuse.

I think people who are getting irate/upset/whatever about the situation with Spain maybe have forgotten that it won't be only Brits who go to the islands; it will be Spanish folk from other parts of Spain who do too, perhaps from those areas where cases are high.  So the risk can't simply be measured in terms of the island case rates themselves.  The equivalent here is, say, Rossendale which has hardly any cases and the track is downward.  But Rossendale is surrounded by the high risk areas of greater Manchester and people travel into Rossendale from them and vice versa so Rossendale has to endure the same measures as the neighbouring towns.

[redjonn]

16 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

I think people who are getting irate/upset/whatever about the situation with Spain maybe have forgotten that it won't be only Brits who go to the islands; it will be Spanish folk from other parts of Spain who do too, perhaps from those areas where cases are high.  So the risk can't simply be measured in terms of the island case rates themselves.  The equivalent here is, say, Rossendale which has hardly any cases and the track is downward.  But Rossendale is surrounded by the high risk areas of greater Manchester and people travel into Rossendale from them and vice versa so Rossendale has to endure the same measures as the neighbouring towns.

I understand your point.

Too be honest whilst I understand people want sunny holidays and Spain a great location. The travel web site has always warned that issues may arise, travel disruption is possible and that control measure brought in with little notice.

So when you book you know, it is very clear.

[Wolford6]

I had an Auntie Ede.

[Saintslass]

[JohnM]

Went out this afternoon for good reason and noted: Lincolnshire coast absolutely packed solid today.  Busier at the beach than I have ever seen in 15 years. Social distancing? What social distancing? Cars dumped everywhere. Most had been ticketed, which is good for our local council funds. Beach huts packed out, too. Mate reports a mile long queue of traffic on the road into Horncastle traffic lights from the coast. 

[Mister Ting]

3 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Went out this afternoon for good reason and noted: Lincolnshire coast absolutely packed solid today.  Busier at the beach than I have ever seen in 15 years. Social distancing? What social distancing? Cars dumped everywhere. Most had been ticketed, which is good for our local council funds. Beach huts packed out, too. Mate reports a mile long queue of traffic on the road into Horncastle traffic lights from the coast. 

Wishing to go to the Lincolnshire coast is madness at any time.

[JohnM]

3 hours ago, Mister Ting said:

Wishing to go to the Lincolnshire coast is madness at any time.

Yes. Stay away, please! Seriously. Not just now but forever. We didn't move here to be close to other people.

[ckn]

4 posts removed. 

[Saintslass]

9 hours ago, JohnM said:

Went out this afternoon for good reason and noted: Lincolnshire coast absolutely packed solid today.  Busier at the beach than I have ever seen in 15 years. Social distancing? What social distancing? Cars dumped everywhere. Most had been ticketed, which is good for our local council funds. Beach huts packed out, too. Mate reports a mile long queue of traffic on the road into Horncastle traffic lights from the coast. 

Having been very anxious about the beach gatherings back when we had summer weather - in spring - I'm not as concerned because such events don't seem to have an impact on virus numbers.  Our numbers have only started rising over the last couple of weeks which means something else is triggering the rise, not overcrowded beaches.  I think people need an outlet from what has become quite a controlled, restricted life under Covid and it will be winter soon enough so given the much lower risk outdoors then hopefully a day at the beach will satiate people and help them to socially distance in their regular lives.  And at least this time businesses can benefit.

 

[Saintslass]

9 hours ago, Mister Ting said:

Wishing to go to the Lincolnshire coast is madness at any time.

What's wrong with the Lincolnshire coast?  I've never been and so I'm curious!

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

11 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

Having been very anxious about the beach gatherings back when we had summer weather - in spring - I'm not as concerned because such events don't seem to have an impact on virus numbers.  Our numbers have only started rising over the last couple of weeks which means something else is triggering the rise, not overcrowded beaches.  I think people need an outlet from what has become quite a controlled, restricted life under Covid and it will be winter soon enough so given the much lower risk outdoors then hopefully a day at the beach will satiate people and help them to socially distance in their regular lives.  And at least this time businesses can benefit.

 

They've been rising for a month, starting around the time you'd expect from the last beach invasions. 

[gingerjon]

29 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

They've been rising for a month, starting around the time you'd expect from the last beach invasions. 

All the beaches locally have been absolutely rammed the past few days. They had to close the roads around Camber again yesterday. 

[redjonn]

question for me is where are the beach goers coming from... 

I mean I would drive for 5 hours just for a day at the beach, whereas as I live in North Yorkshire I may drive to Yorkshire coast/beach, say no more than 2 hours. For me that far enough given pain of driving & we know traffic jams on nice days.

In other words I assume most people are like me and its people from within a reasonable area of the resort/beach.  As distinct from what some residents of those are'a bemoan as if their all coming from a massive distance away.