coronavirus

[Bob8]

10 minutes ago, shaun mc said:

I wasn't trying to sound like an 'expert' but just sounding out if this Univ is at the cutting edge of the data and research and therefore advice

I've been sent other stuff about the properties and behaviour of the virus and what we can do to mitigate its impact. Most of which has been on this thread in one form or another, but not in a summary, straightforward piece of info

And on the final paragraph, why are US leaders (on the face of it) not taking this on board from a university in the US and proposing normal contact between its population in 2 weeks time? 

I did not take it that way! I just wanted to make it clear that my experience was too narrow to be an expert in this overall.

It is difficult, as we can only roughly guess the impact and how many are infected and have been. People are learning as we go and it is guess work (as far as we know).

The lack of a centralised health service is very difficult and the pointless political battles that will have to be fought. There are issues of social monitoring and control that are more fraught.

Johns Hopkins is very highly regarded. The data is specific. Confirmed cases is not the figure of cases, but might be useful to extrapolte how many cases there actually are. The number for Italy (92, 472) might be closer to the reality in Denmark, while the actual cases in Italy will be estimated by epidemiologists to be far higher. Meanwhile, the raw numer squoted one person in Denmark as having recovered, not reality. But, it is a lot of guess work.

I will caveat all of this with me being out of date and on the periphery of this when I was involved.

[M j M]

1 hour ago, Dave T said:

Are companies doing this because they know it is cheaper to run an empty train/plane rather than refund people? 

I saw Ryanair are still flying from Edinburgh to Dublin as normal (I think). 

For the Shuttle, freight is still moving so there are still plenty of vehicles crossing the channel. Same applies at Dover (although rosters have inevitably been scaled back a bit).

[shaun mc]

9 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

I did not take it that way! I just wanted to make it clear that my experience was too narrow to be an expert in this overall.

It is difficult, as we can only roughly guess the impact and how many are infected and have been. People are learning as we go and it is guess work (as far as we know).

The lack of a centralised health service is very difficult and the pointless political battles that will have to be fought. There are issues of social monitoring and control that are more fraught.

Johns Hopkins is very highly regarded. The data is specific. Confirmed cases is not the figure of cases, but might be useful to extrapolte how many cases there actually are. The number for Italy (92, 472) might be closer to the reality in Denmark, while the actual cases in Italy will be estimated by epidemiologists to be far higher. Meanwhile, the raw numer squoted one person in Denmark as having recovered, not reality. But, it is a lot of guess work.

I will caveat all of this with me being out of date and on the periphery of this when I was involved.

Thanks for your thoughts on this. The sentence in bold is re-assuring. I think I was after how genuine this is having not heard of Johns Hopkins Univ before

We all have seen a lot of sources of 'the truth' recently

[Futtocks]

45 minutes ago, shaun mc said:

Thanks for your thoughts on this. The sentence in bold is re-assuring. I think I was after how genuine this is having not heard of Johns Hopkins Univ before

We all have seen a lot of sources of 'the truth' recently

Johns Hopkins University is one of the most venerable and highly-regarded research institutions in the USA.

Plus they're one of my company's subscribers, so I'm well-disposed towards them.

[Wholly Trinity]

Another excellent video from 3blue1brown explaining some of the factors influencing spread and the relative efficacy of different actions. 

The randomness of infection also suggests that some areas could be plain unlucky. 

It seems clear that to actually reduce the total number of casualties significantly you need to act like south Korea or Germany. Test extensively, track, trace and isolate any contacts.  

My hope is that the number of asymptomatic cases is much higher than expected and similar to the "Diamond Princess" and that natural immunity along with the sanitation, social distancing and self-isolation steps will suppress the death toll. 

 

[Wholly Trinity]

The softly-softly approach to discourage people from congregating seems to be going well locally (Makassar, Indonesia

)

[Copa]

NSFW

[Copa]

3 minutes ago, Wholly Trinity said:

The softly-softly approach to discourage people from congregating seems to be going well locally (Makassar, Indonesia

)

Indonesia is stuffed.  Huge levels of scientific illiteracy and ignorance combined with a lack of resources will punish them massively.

[Copa]

Sydneysiders doing their bit...

 

[Wholly Trinity]

A nice simple intro into the maths involved from numberphile. 

 

 

[Wholly Trinity]

57 minutes ago, Copa said:

Indonesia is stuffed.  Huge levels of scientific illiteracy and ignorance combined with a lack of resources will punish them massively.

I think the big cities, particularly poor people, could suffer badly. 

The plus point is that they started fairly early with the social distancing campaign  (although many are ignoring it) and there is some level of panic/fear. Where I am it is fairly remote and there are no cases, yet. 

The problem is there is pretty much zero capacity to deal with it if/when it arrives. At present there are zero ventilators in hospitals within 200 miles. The ICUs here are waiting rooms for the morgue, just monitoring not treating. 

It could be devastating in the big cities like Jakarta. I expect a relatively slow start to infections, but if it takes hold it will be unstoppable in the 4th biggest population in the world. I suspect India will be similar.  

Personally, I'm not too worried as we have been effectively self-isolating for 2 weeks now. My wife & I are working from home and only going out to buy food 2 or 3 times a week. Other than work, my routine is fairly unchanged. Still feeding the pigs and plenty to do around the house and garden to keep us active.  But if you get really ill here, you will die. In some places people have been collapsing and dying in the street. Hardly any testing is taking place and data is unreliable. 

[Copa]

57 minutes ago, Wholly Trinity said:

I think the big cities, particularly poor people, could suffer badly. 

The plus point is that they started fairly early with the social distancing campaign  (although many are ignoring it) and there is some level of panic/fear. Where I am it is fairly remote and there are no cases, yet. 

The problem is there is pretty much zero capacity to deal with it if/when it arrives. At present there are zero ventilators in hospitals within 200 miles. The ICUs here are waiting rooms for the morgue, just monitoring not treating. 

It could be devastating in the big cities like Jakarta. I expect a relatively slow start to infections, but if it takes hold it will be unstoppable in the 4th biggest population in the world. I suspect India will be similar.  

Personally, I'm not too worried as we have been effectively self-isolating for 2 weeks now. My wife & I are working from home and only going out to buy food 2 or 3 times a week. Other than work, my routine is fairly unchanged. Still feeding the pigs and plenty to do around the house and garden to keep us active.  But if you get really ill here, you will die. In some places people have been collapsing and dying in the street. Hardly any testing is taking place and data is unreliable. 

Java has double the population density of India. It’s gonna be a disaster.

I’d rather be up in the hills of the outer islands than anywhere near Java.

[ckn]

3 hours ago, Copa said:

Java has double the population density of India. It’s gonna be a disaster.

I’d rather be up in the hills of the outer islands than anywhere near Java.

The Outer Hebrides currently has no cases. 

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

Saw an interview with a Russian doctor leaving church. When asked if she was worried about catching covid by being there with many others her reply was "no, it's a church, God won't let you catch it there." I guess she'll learn the hard way that many will either because (delete as appropriate) he doesn't exist or can't stop it.

[gingerjon]

14 minutes ago, ckn said:

The Outer Hebrides currently has no cases. 

Nor does Orkney. I believe Shetland does though?

[M j M]

 

[Spidey]

On 25/03/2020 at 17:19, Spidey said:

My firm are making the majority of staff furloughed from Monday. Leadership don’t seem to fully understand how the scheme works and what the impact is on the individual.

We got a bit more positive news on Friday, few more answers for individuals so a lot more went off work better informed of the situation. Plus the shareholders committed to funding some of the gap between the government grant and our full salary. Just plays the waiting game now to see when we’re back in

[Damien]

Very sad to read articles like this:

Coronavirus: GPs 'buying their own PPE'

GPs in parts of Wales are having to buy their own personal protective equipment (PPE), with some even asking schools to make it for them with 3D printers.

That's according to a GP practising in the Aneurin Bevan health board area, one of the worst hit areas of the UK.

And doctors often had "no choice" but to wear PPE more than once, which the GP, who wishes to remain anonymous, called "dangerous" and "unacceptable".

Aneurin Bevan University Health Board has been asked to comment.

On Wednesday, Sarah Aitken, the board's director of public health, said it could be "following Italy" and faces being "overwhelmed" by a rapid increase in coronavirus cases.

"There remains huge concern within general practice about the supply of adequate PPE," the GP told BBC Wales, adding that the current guidelines are "globally rejected" by GPs who are "sourcing our own PPE with our own funds".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52079429

[fairfolly]

Another 838 deaths in Spain overnight, heading up to 7000 now. I see even stricter measures coming in if people carry on disregarding the law. In my area Dog Walkers the biggest problem.( Brits the main culprits) Their latest excuse,they do not understand Spanish. Nothing to do with it,they are just selfish B*******.

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

For anyone wanting to have a bit of a play around with and compare the statistics from their own or different countries http://shinyapps.org/apps/corona/ 

[tim2]

1 hour ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Saw an interview with a Russian doctor leaving church. When asked if she was worried about catching covid by being there with many others her reply was "no, it's a church, God won't let you catch it there." I guess she'll learn the hard way that many will either because (delete as appropriate) he doesn't exist or can't stop it.

Or, as he was wont to do in "that Old Testament", he sent it as some kind of punishment for our wickedness. God is both kind and cruel, and you don't know which one you're going to get. At least you know where you stand with the Devil. Hot poker up your jacksy, guaranteed.

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

2 minutes ago, tim2 said:

Or, as he was wont to do in "that Old Testament", he sent it as some kind of punishment for our wickedness. God is both kind and cruel, and you don't know which one you're going to get. At least you know where you stand with the Devil. Hot poker up your jacksy, guaranteed.

Oops don't like the sound of that particularly after mishearing Mrs Sidestep...

[SSoutherner]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-52052890

So shortage of milk in shops but farmers having prices cut by 2p/litre and 70 day payment terms

[ivans82]

Saw an interview with a Lady about a fortnight ago (think She was one of those virus scientists) , She said then that the peak was a least 3 months away , So i take it it will be a further 3 months until if falls to the level we were at 2 weeks ago .That takes us to mid August .Anyone thinking we will be back to normal in a few months is in for a big shock , because everything She said is coming true .Perhaps it`s just the planet fighting back against the Human Race attempts to poison and destroy it ,

[GUBRATS]

15 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Oops don't like the sound of that particularly after mishearing Mrs Sidestep...

Nearly gave me a heart attack then