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Just now, Damien said:

I think psychologically with people there is a huge difference between returning a 4 figure number compared to 3. It would also put the UK comfortably clear of what countries in Europe are now declaring on a daily basis.

That is where my head is at. And I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I think it is a case of the figures being a bit woolly anyway so they are easy to record a few the day after when you reach your 8 to 900 mark. 

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2 minutes ago, Northern Eel said:

And let's face it, that's pretty much what everyone is/was expecting. The unknown is just how long it will take to get back to the old normal. I can't stand that term 'new normal' already! 

It's what anyone with a brain was expecting. But there do seem to be folk who need it to be spelt out in giant neon letters: whilst 1,000 a day (ish) are dying, you're not getting your old life back.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Just now, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Old 'normal' is a long, long way off 

Oh, yes, completely agree. I'm seeing, for example, some European/US briefings (not necessarily government but clearly people who have the ear of government) that large group gatherings may not return until mid-late 2021 or later.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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18 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

The pre-messaging before today's briefing makes it look like it's being put as a "three weeks but really don't think at the end of that three weeks we're going back to anything like normal".

Sounds about right; get people expecting such an announcement, and there'll be less surprise and resistance when it is made official.

"We are easily breakable, by illness or falling, or a million other ways of leaving this earthly life. We are just so much mashed potato."  Don Estelle

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5 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

Oh, yes, completely agree. I'm seeing, for example, some European/US briefings (not necessarily government but clearly people who have the ear of government) that large group gatherings may not return until mid-late 2021 or later.

Yes I've seen a few of those too although there are plenty dismissing it as nonsense. The 2 closest to an official line I've seen are Nadine Dorries and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti with both saying as much.

I've posted this link before but worth a read for anyone who wants to see what the modelling predicts for the UK https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-covid-19/ 

Overall, our results suggest that population-wide social distancing applied to the population as a whole would have the largest impact; and in combination with other interventions – notably home isolation of cases and school and university closure – has the potential to suppress transmission below the threshold of R=1 required to rapidly reduce case incidence. A minimum policy for effective suppression is therefore population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure. 

To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more.  Adaptive hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off population-wide social distancing and school closure offer greater robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be adapted for regional use (e.g. at the state level in the US). 

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Yes, I think some of these posts really should be over om the political sub-forum. I see this forum as one for information and fact, not supposition and argument though its a bit of a grey area around the margins and the mods probably have enough to do already without invoking their intervention.

Here's a test case. Is this political or not?

Boris and other ministers are getting the blame for everything that is or isn't happening, yet there are the great unblamed: serried ranks of superannuated state employees, public servants and NHS directors and senior staff getting in the way of those at the front line who are having to deal with life and death on a daily basis.

“Every single person is a fool, insane, a failure, or a bad person to at least ten people.”
― Mokokoma Mokhonoana

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10 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Yes, I think some of these posts really should be over om the political sub-forum. I see this forum as one for information and fact, not supposition and argument though its a bit of a grey area around the margins and the mods probably have enough to do already without invoking their intervention.

Here's a test case. Is this political or not?

Boris and other ministers are getting the blame for everything that is or isn't happening, yet there are the great unblamed: serried ranks of superannuated state employees, public servants and NHS directors and senior staff getting in the way of those at the front line who are having to deal with life and death on a daily basis.

Yes, I'm happy to leave my conversation on the numbers alone on this thread, it was posted in error. 

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Here in Spain I have not seen one single child out playing or wandering around the streets. The schools are closed and will remain so for the foreseable future. Just this afternoon I was speaking to my Spanish neighbour over my garden hedge and asked her why there was no children about. I never knew this but the reason is that even though there is no school, children are not allowed out of their own house or gardens.

Amazingly this is being followed to the letter of the law by the parents and the children.Saying that the Guardia and Special Forces out on the streets can be pretty intimidating.

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6 minutes ago, fairfolly said:

Here in Spain I have not seen one single child out playing or wandering around the streets. The schools are closed and will remain so for the foreseable future. Just this afternoon I was speaking to my Spanish neighbour over my garden hedge and asked her why there was no children about. I never knew this but the reason is that even though there is no school, children are not allowed out of their own house or gardens.

Amazingly this is being followed to the letter of the law by the parents and the children.Saying that the Guardia and Special Forces out on the streets can be pretty intimidating.

I haven’t seen many children out over here but certainly loads of teenagers. I’m amazed how many gangs of what I’d guess are between the ages of 15-20 hanging around precincts and in parks.

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Fevtom, 

             Normally there is a few teenagers hanging around,here teenagers are allowed motor bikes from 14 onwards as long as they are no more than 150cc and the vast majority have them. However now that they are not allowed to ride them because of the lockdown they seem to be abiding by the rules. However,last week a few of them decided to have a house party. Somebody reported it, the Guardia were there 5 minutes later,took them home and warned the parents if they were caught out again the parents would incur a large fine. The parents who allowed the party were fined and also received a stern warning if it happened again there would be severe penalties applied, i.e. imprisonment.Seems it worked,have not heard of any since.

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31 minutes ago, Northern Eel said:

Me too. I consider my wrist slapped. A bit of a grey area indeed.

Can't say much on here without a wrist slap.

(Or a deleted post, for that matter...)

I'll leave you lot to compare notes on your pretty graphs and ludicrous "statistics" with the fount of all knowledge. I'm sure he'll be along on his "tea break".

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Just now, BryanC said:

Can't say much on here without a wrist slap.

(Or a deleted post, for that matter...)

I'll leave you lot to compare notes on your pretty graphs and ludicrous "statistics" with the fount of all knowledge. I'm sure he'll be along on his "tea break".

Give it a rest man....

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4 minutes ago, BryanC said:

Can't say much on here without a wrist slap.

(Or a deleted post, for that matter...)

I'll leave you lot to compare notes on your pretty graphs and ludicrous "statistics" with the fount of all knowledge. I'm sure he'll be along on his "tea break".

giphy.gif

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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6 minutes ago, BryanC said:

Can't say much on here without a wrist slap.

(Or a deleted post, for that matter...)

I'll leave you lot to compare notes on your pretty graphs and ludicrous "statistics" with the fount of all knowledge. I'm sure he'll be along on his "tea break".

This post was reported to me. I choose to leave it as you’ve effectively moderated yourself by posting such dross that I’m shocked anyone DOESN’T have you on ignore. 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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13 minutes ago, BryanC said:

Can't say much on here without a wrist slap.

(Or a deleted post, for that matter...)

I'll leave you lot to compare notes on your pretty graphs and ludicrous "statistics" with the fount of all knowledge. I'm sure he'll be along on his "tea break".

we are all getting stressed mate, and I for one am gonna make an apology for pressing the submit reply button on several occasions when "things" have been getting to me without thinking it through 

see you later undertaker - in a while necrophile 

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Firstly, my earlier deleted post was just a wish that the ex-military on here would just "bore off" (in the modern vernacular), with all their forces reminiscences. I realise that it was disappointing that the majority of "the usual suspects" never actually fought in a war, but really, we're not interested in self-propelled guns, NBC suits, et al. 

By the way, ckn, you recently promised to "ignore" me. I expect you to keep your word.

Moving on.

It is PROFOUNDLY disappointing that so many of my countrymen cannot distinguish between died "WITH" Covid-19 and died "OF" Covid-19.

Unbelievable how many have swallowed all this nonsense hook, line and sinker without questioning ANY of it. Basic freedoms given up unquestioningly without so much as a whimper. As I've stated before, we have become a nation of Mary Ellens and you will live to regret it.

(On the other hand, I suppose not - anyone want to buy a swastika armband?)

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42 minutes ago, BryanC said:

Can't say much on here without a wrist slap.

(Or a deleted post, for that matter...)

I'll leave you lot to compare notes on your pretty graphs and ludicrous "statistics" with the fount of all knowledge. I'm sure he'll be along on his "tea break".

A tongue in cheek quip on my part. Never gave it a thought that you’d find it anything other than that. 

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1 hour ago, fairfolly said:

Fevtom, 

             Normally there is a few teenagers hanging around,here teenagers are allowed motor bikes from 14 onwards as long as they are no more than 150cc and the vast majority have them. However now that they are not allowed to ride them because of the lockdown they seem to be abiding by the rules. However,last week a few of them decided to have a house party. Somebody reported it, the Guardia were there 5 minutes later,took them home and warned the parents if they were caught out again the parents would incur a large fine. The parents who allowed the party were fined and also received a stern warning if it happened again there would be severe penalties applied, i.e. imprisonment.Seems it worked,have not heard of any since.

I have a just 18 yo pining after her recently MOT'd 125 that she is paying just over £2 a day to insure

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48 minutes ago, BryanC said:

 

It is PROFOUNDLY disappointing that so many of my countrymen cannot distinguish between died "WITH" Covid-19 and died "OF" Covid-19.

 

While there is a subtle difference between the two it is lunacy to suggest that a majority of the “died with” cases weren’t exacerbated by having the virus. That is a medical fact borne out by the testimony of many medical experts. Regardless of “died with” or “died of” the bottom line is that they are all Covid-19 related, the only issue is to what extent.

I’m not prejudiced, I hate everybody equally

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4 hours ago, Dave T said:

Last week, the numbers escalated quickly and the coverage changed to much more negative and challenging. Those increases stopped very very abruptly. It will be interesting to see whether our tail is longer than others as that would be a sign of manipulation. 

So Italy and Spain are manipulating their figures as well, yes?  After all, they are both experiencing a rather long tail.

It could be that this virus grows slowly at first, then exponentially (unless action is taken), then plateaus (as a result of that action) and then tails off slowly.  If you took a look at what is happening in European countries just now, you may just see that instead of the government being involved in some conspiracy against its population, the virus here is behaving in a very similar fashion to the virus elsewhere.

Belgium appears to be at a similar stage to us in the pandemic cycle.  Italy and Spain are ahead of us. 

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A little update from my part of the world, though clearly rather closer to the front line than I am, being sat at home 16 miles away each day...

 

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2020-04-16/itv-calendar-speaks-to-nhs-staff-saving-lives-at-airedale-general-hospital/

Please view my photos.

 

http://www.hughesphoto.co.uk/

 

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http://www.facebook.com/LittleNookFarm

 

Little Nook Cottage - 2-bed self-catering cottage in the heart of the Pennines overlooking Hebden Bridge and the Calder Valley.

Book now via airbnb

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