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20 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

Economist article: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/07/tourism-flows-and-death-rates-suggest-covid-19-is-being-under-reported

Conclusion: South Korea and China test regularly. In both places—excluding Hubei, where the virus began claiming lives before authorities formulated a response—0.5-1% of people who have tested positive have died. In other countries with at least one death, this rate is five times higher. Deaths are easier to count than infections are. The most likely explanation for this gap is that for every person diagnosed in these countries, four more do not know they are infected.

Can't decide if that is good news (it is not as deadly as it appears as many have it without noticing) or bad news (we have no idea who has it where they are or who they are transmitting it to)

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2 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

Can't decide if that is good news (it is not as deadly as it appears as many have it without noticing) or bad news (we have no idea who has it where they are or who they are transmitting it to)

I read it as the harder you stamp on it by testing everyone you suspect, then you limit deaths by being honest about the number of people who actually have it. If you do a US and hope it all goes away then you allow it to spread almost unchallenged, you then get higher deaths both in numbers of deaths vs tests, and numbers of deaths vs what'd have happened if you'd stamped on it heavily.

Lots of unhappy people in Italy over being effectively quarantined, but it does seem to have stopped a rapid rush to epidemic. Delay rather than cure, but that's perfectly valid.

Can you imagine that in the US? Trying to quarantine an entire town would have shots fired within an hour.

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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8 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

Can't decide if that is good news (it is not as deadly as it appears as many have it without noticing) or bad news (we have no idea who has it where they are or who they are transmitting it to)

I think the fatality is basically 'no news'. It's run at that 1%-ish line (for total population) the whole time.

The rest is broadly bad news. If we're not testing who has it then we have no way of knowing where it is.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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South Korea have performed 109,591 tests, a rate of 2,138 tests per million people.

UK have performed 13,525 tests, a rate of 199 tests per million people.

USA had performed 472 tests, a rate of 1 test per million people, before they stopped publishing test figures.

100,379 total cases, 3,408 deaths. (pretty much bang on 3.4%) 55,988 recoveries, 40,983 active cases.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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2 hours ago, YCKonstantine said:

South Korea have performed 109,591 tests, a rate of 2,138 tests per million people.

UK have performed 13,525 tests, a rate of 199 tests per million people.

USA had performed 472 tests, a rate of 1 test per million people, before they stopped publishing test figures.

100,379 total cases, 3,408 deaths. (pretty much bang on 3.4%) 55,988 recoveries, 40,983 active cases.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The average death rate is misleading, because it's almost certainly based on under-reporting of infections, but also because your personal chances of dying vary depending on age and prior history.

For example, my daughter is 30 and in very strong health. Her risk would be much lower than average. My wife's mother is 85 and has a history of breathing issues - not so good, I would have thought. Perhaps > 50% if she gets it.


"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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9 minutes ago, tim2 said:

The average death rate is misleading, because it's almost certainly based on under-reporting of infections, but also because your personal chances of dying vary depending on age and prior history.

For example, my daughter is 30 and in very strong health. Her risk would be much lower than average. My wife's mother is 85 and has a history of breathing issues - not so good, I would have thought. Perhaps > 50% if she gets it.

Well it is an overall average, so in that sense it isn't misleading, but of course there are different percentages for all ages and health conditions.

I don't know if it's just as easy as adding the age percentage and the health percentage, probably not, but hey ho, not my job haha

agepercent.jpg

healthpercent.jpg

Edited by YCKonstantine

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29 minutes ago, YCKonstantine said:

Well it is an overall average, so in that sense it isn't misleading, but of course there are different percentages for all ages and health conditions.

Yes, fair point, but the general public are hopeless ignorant about statistics and may well not appreciate the nuances.


"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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All  i know is that my wife will not go and visit her mother in Devon now as she is just recovering from final (successful) bout of chemo for Lymphoma, is 87, has diabetes and we are in Berkshire 2 miles from the shut primary school and with the first confirmed death in the hospital on my route to work

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1 hour ago, JohnM said:

I’m really surprised it’s not been done here yet. Get some Skype connections and get folk speaking that way.


"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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I shook someone's hand today. Should I self isolate? ??

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Today at work, we were told that it would be a good idea to start taking our laptops home at the end of every workday, in case we were advised to start working from home at short notice. No panic, but being prepared in case of disruption.

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"Men will be proud to say 'I am a European'. We hope to see a day when men of every country will think as much of being a European as of being from their native land." (Winston Churchill)

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17 minutes ago, doc said:

I shook someone's hand today. Should I self isolate? ??

Depends what you shook it with. 

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Four legs good - two legs bad

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1 hour ago, Futtocks said:

Today at work, we were told that it would be a good idea to start taking our laptops home at the end of every workday, in case we were advised to start working from home at short notice. No panic, but being prepared in case of disruption.

Yeah we had that steer a few days back. I expect that will kick in soon. 

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I appreciate that Coronavirus is a very serious threat to a large number of people and should be treated as such.

However hearing the daily/hourly news updates of infections/deaths is now getting to the point of achieving nothing but spreading panic.

As a comparison, the average number of deaths from flu in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually. This ranged from 1,692 deaths last season, 2018/19, to 28,330 deaths in 2014/15.


2014 Challenged Cup Winner

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My government employer is STILL forcing us all to move around the office again next week and I had to disinfect my keyboard again today as someone used it in the evening.  And the person who came back from Italy but didn't even get a test is still at work, quite possibly infecting us all without any of us yet realising it.

But hey, they have now provided us with handwash at the sinks in the kitchen areas.  Wow.

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11 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

My government employer is STILL forcing us all to move around the office again next week and I had to disinfect my keyboard again today as someone used it in the evening.  And the person who came back from Italy but didn't even get a test is still at work, quite possibly infecting us all without any of us yet realising it.

But hey, they have now provided us with handwash at the sinks in the kitchen areas.  Wow.

Glad to see that you own up it is your Government ?

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21 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

My government employer is STILL forcing us all to move around the office again next week and I had to disinfect my keyboard again today as someone used it in the evening.  And the person who came back from Italy but didn't even get a test is still at work, quite possibly infecting us all without any of us yet realising it.

But hey, they have now provided us with handwash at the sinks in the kitchen areas.  Wow.

We’ve banned hotdesking, handshakes, and even the shared mugs cupboard  (bring your own, clean your own now). Every employee can work at home as they see fit, with seniors setting the example that it’s fine, and we’ve paid for new Zoom videoconference licenses. And we’re a glacial slow NHS organisation. 

Sounds line you’ve a paranoid type in charge who doesn’t think people out of sight will work. 


"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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I buy my groceries online and usually if you order before 9pm you will get them the following afternoon. This week I ordered on Thursday and the first available delivery was Sunday afternoon. So while people may not be hoarding they appear to be avoiding crowded places. The only items I noticed that were out of stock were budget generic lines. I checked again yesterday and the cheapest milk was "unavailable" but every line of full-priced milk seemed to be in stock. Good thing I'm not suspicious or I might think there were other factors at play here. I noticed the same thing with other obvious "hoardables" like pasta.

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9 hours ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

The state of people panic buying toilet roll ?

Are we going to start needing rationing and coupons again?

This is sensible.

It was about ten years ago when I worked on preparedness for something like this. "Panic buying" is a newspaper term, it is nonsense. People are making reasonable decisions to stock up on items. Any alteration to buying patterns (people changing their main shopping day to a Tuesday, or starting to but what they buy on Tuesday to Friday) will lead to disruption. Toilet paper does not expire and is very important, particularly in the event of illness.

Governments tend to panic before people. New Orleans fell into chaos not after the flood, but after FEMA decided it must be so.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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6 hours ago, ckn said:

We’ve banned hotdesking, handshakes, and even the shared mugs cupboard  (bring your own, clean your own now). Every employee can work at home as they see fit, with seniors setting the example that it’s fine, and we’ve paid for new Zoom videoconference licenses. And we’re a glacial slow NHS organisation. 

Sounds line you’ve a paranoid type in charge who doesn’t think people out of sight will work. 

Truckers would be key people to keep well and first in line for any vaccine, they travel and keep medical supply lines going.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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