coronavirus

[Derwent 2,420]

3 hours ago, gingerjon said:

I'm trying to remember what we thought when we though it ... a few days ago I saw a retweet of a Fraser Nelson column from a few days before that where he said Covid would be fine because we would definitely have less than 5,700 deaths.

What's it going to be now? 25,000? 30,000? More than that?

Why is this surprising ? We were told weeks ago that 20,000 or less would be a “good” outcome.

[gingerjon 15,663]

Just now, Derwent said:

Why is this surprising ? We were told weeks ago that 20,000 or less would be a “good” outcome.

I'm not sure that I meant that it's surprising, more just a complete change of perspective.

And Nelson - of the Spectator/Telegraph/Spiked continuum - wrote his piece after that was given as a 'good outcome'.

A realistic outcome has to be 30,000+ now, doesn't it?

[Derwent 2,420]

2 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

I'm not sure that I meant that it's surprising, more just a complete change of perspective.

And Nelson - of the Spectator/Telegraph/Spiked continuum - wrote his piece after that was given as a 'good outcome'.

A realistic outcome has to be 30,000+ now, doesn't it?

Fair enough maybe I misunderstood.

The outcome depends on the public and how we behave. That’s the truth of the matter. The only people who can stop the spread are the general public. People can rant about government but essentially it boils down to 2 things - firstly the public behaving responsibly and secondly the scientists producing a vaccine. I have faith the second one will happen in time, I have less faith about the first one. I hope I’m wrong but I honestly think we will see a second wave once lockdown restrictions are lifted. Looking on social media a frighteningly large number of people seem to think once the government eases things they will be able to go back to pre-pandemic life straight away.

[Dave T 18,174]

8 minutes ago, Derwent said:

Fair enough maybe I misunderstood.

The outcome depends on the public and how we behave. That’s the truth of the matter. The only people who can stop the spread are the general public. People can rant about government but essentially it boils down to 2 things - firstly the public behaving responsibly and secondly the scientists producing a vaccine. I have faith the second one will happen in time, I have less faith about the first one. I hope I’m wrong but I honestly think we will see a second wave once lockdown restrictions are lifted. Looking on social media a frighteningly large number of people seem to think once the government eases things they will be able to go back to pre-pandemic life straight away.

I must admit, I just don't hear this from anybody I actually speak to. Not a single person. Everyone I speak to is expecting a rather long haul on this, I'm not convinced the media are portraying the people's view on this, which would hardly be a surprise. 

A lot of noise around lockdown ending appears to be coming from people with financial interests in opening for business, as in the rich people, not the lower end struggling to just pay the bills. 

[Les Tonks Sidestep 3,328]

Just now, Dave T said:

I must admit, I just don't hear this from anybody I actually speak to. Not a single person. Everyone I speak to is expecting a rather long haul on this, I'm not convinced the media are portraying the people's view on this, which would hardly be a surprise. 

A lot of noise around lockdown ending appears to be coming from people with financial interests in opening for business, as in the rich people, not the lower end struggling to just pay the bills. 

 

[Damien 12,026]

9 minutes ago, Dave T said:

I must admit, I just don't hear this from anybody I actually speak to. Not a single person. Everyone I speak to is expecting a rather long haul on this, I'm not convinced the media are portraying the people's view on this, which would hardly be a surprise. 

A lot of noise around lockdown ending appears to be coming from people with financial interests in opening for business, as in the rich people, not the lower end struggling to just pay the bills. 

I completely agree with this. The media are completely out of tune to anyone that I know or any survey I have seen.

[SSoutherner 2,261]

the thing is whilst the labs may have ramped up to being able to cope with 38k per day tests, have the testing centers also ramped up AND MORE IMPORTANTLY we have spent the last month screaming that people shouldnt be tested unless needed (look at the issues over Give's daughter being tested) so who has communicated what to whom over who is now eligible and should be turning up at those testing centres. I expect it will take up to 7 days to filter through

[gingerjon 15,663]

22 minutes ago, Damien said:

I completely agree with this. The media are completely out of tune to anyone that I know or any survey I have seen.

The same survey that *some* on the right like to show that shows 60%+ support for the government also shows 90%+ support for continuing or increasing lockdown.

Virtually nobody aside from some extreme voices on here or hacks in the pay of dubious media types have any interest in coming out of restrictions too soon.

[Shadow 6,404]

2 hours ago, fairfolly said:

Robin. I have just apologised for the wording of my post. I know full well how hard you people in the N.H.S work and have nothing but admiration for the vast majority of the N.H.S. staff. Indeed I have one grandaughter that works in the N.H.S and another grandaughters husband that works in the N.H.S.My query, wrongly put,I admit was why if there was, apparently 38,000 tests available did only 21,000 turn up for them when all we have heard for weeks is that there are not enough tests.

Well why don’t you ask your grand daughter or your other grand daughter’s husband so they can see what a POS you are as well?

[fairfolly 730]

Shadow, I have just taken your advice and asked them. Grandaughters husband gets 6 months full pay and 6 months half pay. Grandaughter gets 4 months full pay and four half pay.They have no idea why only 21000 took the chance to get tested.If that is what you wanted me to ask them there is their answers.As to what you think of me is of no consequence to me.

[Shadow 6,404]

6 minutes ago, fairfolly said:

Shadow, I have just taken your advice and asked them. Grandaughters husband gets 6 months full pay and 6 months half pay. Grandaughter gets 4 months full pay and four half pay.They have no idea why only 21000 took the chance to get tested.If that is what you wanted me to ask them there is their answers.As to what you think of me is of no consequence to me.

I hope you got to see the first answer I posted before it was deleted, that’s what I think of you.

[THE RED ROOSTER 1,016]

If you want facts rather than opinion,  I direct you to the Twitter Feed of Professor David Paton, Professor of Industrial Economics at Nottingham University who has been number cruncing the published stats here and abroad.

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern

[Northern Eel 1,655]

5 hours ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

From earlier today

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps suggested people should not book summer holidays for later this year.

Yet the same question was talked away in the afternoon briefing in more of a 'wait and see' message.

[SSoutherner 2,261]

3 minutes ago, THE RED ROOSTER said:

If you want facts rather than opinion,  I direct you to the Twitter Feed of Professor David Paton, Professor of Industrial Economics at Nottingham University who has been number cruncing the published stats here and abroad.

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern

Sorry but he has no grasp of epidemiology - this is not an economics exercise it is about disease vectors and  transmission multipliers

I did econometrics at Uni and can see how completely irrelevant the maths is to this kind of issue - I am sorry but I would always trust a medical professor over an economics professor

[Les Tonks Sidestep 3,328]

13 minutes ago, THE RED ROOSTER said:

If you want facts rather than opinion,  I direct you to the Twitter Feed of Professor David Paton, Professor of Industrial Economics at Nottingham University who has been number cruncing the published stats here and abroad.

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern

 

7 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

Sorry but he has no grasp of epidemiology - this is not an economics exercise it is about disease vectors and  transmission multipliers

I did econometrics at Uni and can see how completely irrelevant the maths is to this kind of issue - I am sorry but I would always trust a medical professor over an economics professor

He's also just using the data for hospital deaths in England completely ignoring deaths in the community in England, deaths in Wales, deaths in NI and deaths in Scotland. So not even complete data for basing any conclusion for the UK as a whole.

[Northern Eel 1,655]

Double post

Edited April 17, 2020 by Northern Eel

[Saintslass 3,823]

6 hours ago, ckn said:

NOT a political point (the actual numbers are a political point and one for that thread)

It's amazing the adaptability of the human brain. Two weeks ago we were in horror at the Italian numbers and no-one was willing to accept that that could happen here. Yet, here we are: 14,576 deaths and it's "ah well, but Prince William dialled someone on Zoom while making sure the media got an invite as well"

 

I think the horror of Italy, and also more recently Spain, was seeing things like patients lying on the floor in absolutely packed facilities.  The one thing we have done extremely well I think is prepare NHS capacity.  Unless things go horribly wrong with the lockdown (or, in future, with managing the disease), we should hopefully not see those scenes.  

[Saintslass 3,823]

Care homes everywhere have been hit by this pandemic but it seems those in France have been particularly hard hit (see here  )

The total death toll from the coronavirus in France has risen to 18,681 on Friday from 17,920, Reuters reports.

The death toll in hospitals rose to 11,478 from 11,060, while the death toll in nursing homes rose to 7,203 from 6,860 on Thursday.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Saintslass

[Saintslass 3,823]

3 hours ago, fairfolly said:

Apparently there was scope for 38,000 tests today but apparently only 21,000 turned up for the test. Any idea why, 

Speculation in the media has been that the government anticipated more NHS staff being referred than have been.  It's possible that most NHS staff were covered by hospital based testing and so didn't need to use the drive through facilities.  According to the committee meeting today, 7.2% of NHS staff are off due to covid (not just sickness but also family sickness or vulnerability).  

Apparently people are referred for tests.  I think we are trying to avoid the scenes elsewhere of great long queues waiting to be tested (plus, of course, with a limited supply of tests we would simply run out if people could just turn up).  At least now anyway we are able to extend the availability to other key workers, which the government has now done.  We are moving in the right direction.  Two of the three mega labs are now up and running we were told at the press conference today and the third should be online this week with Cambridge also coming online at the start of May.  It's now just a case of getting people to the testing sites.  I read somewhere that the government is also setting up local sites in more rural areas.

[Bearman 4,113]

We have a daily "briefing" ( propaganda bulletin) followed by a Q&A session by a bunch of journalists .

Are they really the cream of the 4th estate? If so, it's no wonder people are looking for answers to any crank website.

Today the "Experts" ( I know, I know) told us that the best science predicts that face masks are at best no more than brown paper plasters for the problem.

Do the hacks listen? No they keep on about a quote by that windbag the Mayor of London.  When did Sudiq Khan find time from standing on his hind legs and pontificating to extend his law degree to become a man of science?

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Bearman

[Damien 12,026]

8 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

I think the horror of Italy, and also more recently Spain, was seeing things like patients lying on the floor in absolutely packed facilities.  The one thing we have done extremely well I think is prepare NHS capacity.  Unless things go horribly wrong with the lockdown (or, in future, with managing the disease), we should hopefully not see those scenes.  

It's just a pity we weren't testing and checking arrivals from those places to limit the spread in the first place. Even now arrivals from hotspots aren't being tested or screened which completely undermines the efforts of the general public.

[Kayakman 5,510]

6 minutes ago, Bearman said:

We have a daily "briefing" ( propaganda bulletin) followed by a Q&A session by a bunch of journalists .

Are they really the cream of the 4th estate? If so, it's no wonder people are looking for answers to any crank website.

Today the "Experts" ( I know, I know) told us that the best science predicts that face masks are at best no more than brown paper plasters for the problem.

Do the hacks listen? No they keep on about a quote by that windbag the Mayor of London.  When did Sudiq Khan find time from standing on his hind legs and pontificating to extend his law degree to become a man of science?

 

That is a pretty deep last sentence Bearman.  

Kylie now lives in deep northern bear country...she is doing alot of hiking now and running into your numerous cousins who are waking up....and hungry!

Edited April 17, 2020 by Kayakman

[Bob8 6,872]

1 hour ago, SSoutherner said:

the thing is whilst the labs may have ramped up to being able to cope with 38k per day tests, have the testing centers also ramped up AND MORE IMPORTANTLY we have spent the last month screaming that people shouldnt be tested unless needed (look at the issues over Give's daughter being tested) so who has communicated what to whom over who is now eligible and should be turning up at those testing centres. I expect it will take up to 7 days to filter through

My sister in Australia is covered in PPE. My wife has been invited to a test, just in case.

 

[Saintslass 3,823]

Just now, Bearman said:

We have a daily "briefing" ( propaganda bulletin) followed by a Q&A session by a bunch of journalists .

Are they really the cream of the 4th estate? If so, it's no wonder people are looking for answers to any crank website.

Today the "Experts" ( I know, I know) told us that the best science predicts that face masks are at best no more than brown paper plasters for the problem.

Do the hacks listen? No they keep on about a quote by that windbag the Mayor of London.  When did Sudiq Khan find time from standing on his hind legs and pontificating to extend his law degree to a man of science?

 

I always find the press conferences informative.

Today I learned about the work going on to create a vaccine and all the trials that are happening and the companies and others involved.  I find it reassuring to learn that these things are being addressed and that no stone is being left unturned.  It was hardly propaganda.

Unfortunately there were more stupid questions by the press pack, and more stuff about ending the lockdown even though the government has been crystal clear that until the five criteria are met, ending the lockdown isn't going to happen.  I don't know how the panel don't throw their lecterns at the screen when the same questions are asked by the same dumb people.  It's a complete waste of time for those of us who are actually listening and want to know what's going on.  Last night there was one superb question which brought some really interesting information into the open but tonight it was largely inane again.  It's all about the gotcha moment and nothing else.

Having said all that, Sharma doesn't do the best job at answering the questions he IS asked.  He does answer them but you have to really listen hard for the key words.  For example, someone asked a remotely sensible question (I think the bloke was from a regional paper so that will be why) about HS2, namely since we're going to be broke, why continue with such an expensive project?  Sharma did answer but you really had to listen hard.  His answer was basically that the government wanted to keep the economy going as much as possible and ensure there were jobs being done when we come out the other side.  That may have been just a good excuse, if your bent is to believe these press conferences are nothing but propaganda, but the point is still a valid one: we will need all the work we can produce when we are trying to release the lockdown.

[Wolford6 2,196]

1 hour ago, gingerjon said:

 

Virtually nobody aside from some extreme voices on here or hacks in the pay of dubious media types have any interest in coming out of restrictions too soon.

I suspect that every worker in danger of losing his or her job unless they go back to work would be willing to go back.

Watch the news; ther's loads of small firms which haven't had their bailout money and could go out of business.

I've got mates with few formal qualifications and / or their skills were in the textile industry that Thatcherism sent to the wall. They are in their fifties and sixties. They need to go back  to work or risk never getting another decent job.