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Apologies if this has been posted already or elsewhere,

ONS have produced an interactive map showing where death certificates mention Covid-19.   You need to follow the link, scroll down till you reach Figure 5: Number of deaths involving COVID-19 in Middle Layer Super Output Areas. These are areas of approx. 7,500 population. Please reads the notes, too.  The current map covers from 1st March to 17th April.  It reports one death in our MLSO but obviously not the actual address but the centre of the area.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april

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26 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Apologies if this has been posted already or elsewhere,

ONS have produced an interactive map showing where death certificates mention Covid-19.   You need to follow the link, scroll down till you reach Figure 5: Number of deaths involving COVID-19 in Middle Layer Super Output Areas. These are areas of approx. 7,500 population. Please reads the notes, too.  The current map covers from 1st March to 17th April.  It reports one death in our MLSO but obviously not the actual address but the centre of the area.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april

St Helens is at 38 per 100,000 up to 17 April.  It'll be higher than that now as we are over 150 deaths (slower rate of deaths over the last week or so though).

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5 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

St Helens is at 38 per 100,000 up to 17 April.  It'll be higher than that now as we are over 150 deaths (slower rate of deaths over the last week or so though).

This map shows the actual numbers and the areas in which the deceased lived.. For example, Sutton Leach (MSOA St. Helens 020) shows 9 confirmed deaths.

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It is very difficult, if not impossible, to compare different countries. However, I've used this graph previously to imply comparative levels of testing. Now that I've updated it, maybe we can glean more from it, i.e. how well a country is doing to suppress the virus. 

It is particularly interesting that, from these countries, only the UK & Sweden show a significant increase over time. You can also see the step rises in the UK, Spain and Finland where the method of recording deaths was changed. The UK seems to level of after the 8th April, which is when they suggested was the peak.

There are many caveats and factors that could influence the proportion of deaths to positive cases (e.g. capability of the health system, overall health/age of the population, methods and accuracy of producing data, time since first infection, the delay between testing and potential death, etc.). However, based on the premise that most of these will be similar across developed countries, it does make interesting reading.

282746104_27-4-20deathsper1000cases.thumb.png.e1cfe3332102d7eec709b6650dae9673.png

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Thanks for that. I believe one of the probkems with drawing conclusions from international comparisons come from the probable differences in categorisation of care homes. What constitutes a care home in one country may or will be different in different countries. 

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2 hours ago, Wholly Trinity said:

It is very difficult, if not impossible, to compare different countries. However, I've used this graph previously to imply comparative levels of testing. Now that I've updated it, maybe we can glean more from it, i.e. how well a country is doing to suppress the virus. 

It is particularly interesting that, from these countries, only the UK & Sweden show a significant increase over time. You can also see the step rises in the UK, Spain and Finland where the method of recording deaths was changed. The UK seems to level of after the 8th April, which is when they suggested was the peak.

There are many caveats and factors that could influence the proportion of deaths to positive cases (e.g. capability of the health system, overall health/age of the population, methods and accuracy of producing data, time since first infection, the delay between testing and potential death, etc.). However, based on the premise that most of these will be similar across developed countries, it does make interesting reading.

282746104_27-4-20deathsper1000cases.thumb.png.e1cfe3332102d7eec709b6650dae9673.png

Again, just speculation, and this is more questions.

Firstly, when I see that, I suspect the measurement. The has tested far fewer people and counted fewer people.

Secondly, if valid, the figures suggest that the disease is spreading more through vulnerable people in the UK. That could be affected by the lack of PPE, which does not seem to be as severe in the rest of Europe, but it could also be any number of other things.

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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58 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Again, just speculation, and this is more questions.

Firstly, when I see that, I suspect the measurement. The has tested far fewer people and counted fewer people.

Secondly, if valid, the figures suggest that the disease is spreading more through vulnerable people in the UK. That could be affected by the lack of PPE, which does not seem to be as severe in the rest of Europe, but it could also be any number of other things.

Sorry, should have mentioned the data source. I take the daily data from the BBC which in turn gets it from Johns Hopkins university.

I then just mess around with the data, plotting different graphs to look for patterns & pass the time. 

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1 minute ago, Wholly Trinity said:

Sorry, should have mentioned the data source. I take the daily data from the BBC which in turn gets it from Johns Hopkins university.

I then just mess around with the data, plotting different graphs to look for patterns & pass the time. 

Thanks 

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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11 hours ago, JohnM said:

Apologies if this has been posted already or elsewhere,

ONS have produced an interactive map showing where death certificates mention Covid-19.   You need to follow the link, scroll down till you reach Figure 5: Number of deaths involving COVID-19 in Middle Layer Super Output Areas. These are areas of approx. 7,500 population. Please reads the notes, too.  The current map covers from 1st March to 17th April.  It reports one death in our MLSO but obviously not the actual address but the centre of the area.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april

This is a really helpful link, thanks.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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2 hours ago, Bob8 said:

Again, just speculation, and this is more questions.

Firstly, when I see that, I suspect the measurement. The has tested far fewer people and counted fewer people.

Secondly, if valid, the figures suggest that the disease is spreading more through vulnerable people in the UK. That could be affected by the lack of PPE, which does not seem to be as severe in the rest of Europe, but it could also be any number of other things.

is PPE not so severe on other countries... I have no idea but wondering if your assuming or its factual.

The only news I've seen on PPE in other countries was that German doctors where posing naked (certain parts hidden of course)to demonstrate their concern for lack of PPE and of course the nakedness to show how vulnerable they feel without PPE. Copying what some French doctors were doing regards lack of PPE..

That was a story on BBC news web site sometime in the last week re: above.

On vulnerable people as in those in care homes I do wonder how our system compares with Germany or what they have done to protect such... as it would not appear to have same impact. Although from what one can gather from lack of coverage is that France, Spain & Italy have similar to us regards deaths in care homes or whatever they call similar.

 

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3 hours ago, redjonn said:

is PPE not so severe on other countries... I have no idea but wondering if your assuming or its factual.

Keeping you abreast of shortages in other countries: German, French healthcare workers pose nude to protest PPE shortages

https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/german-french-healthcare-workers-pose-nude-to-protest-ppe-shortages/

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Four legs good - two legs bad

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Please view my photos.

 

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I've not actually watched this, but here it is anyway -

 

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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4 minutes ago, Damien said:

Over 65,000 dead now in the US.

The IHME projection was 68,000 at one point, it's now saying 74,000.  My guess (just eyeballing the graphs) would be 100,000+.

There are also a lot of unexplained deaths (i.e. heart attacks at home, etc) that are not currently counted.  Anecdotally there are significant numbers of these in places like New York.  

They also have big care homes, one in New York reported 98 deaths out of 700 beds.  

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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An example of how things are not black and white:

This Government billboard is advertising remote walks, which are suitable for social distancing. 

EDCADA82-42E8-463E-B53B-A6471AAAF06B.jpeg

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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1 minute ago, Dave T said:

Aye, once again I'm posting on the wrong bloody thread! :kolobok_biggrin:

It's easy done when there are two threads on essentially the same topic. There is bound to be some crossover and confusion.

Main issue is .. no-one's getting lairy.

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23 minutes ago, Robin Evans said:

It's easy done when there are two threads on essentially the same topic. There is bound to be some crossover and confusion.

Main issue is .. no-one's getting lairy.

The problem is that someone will, add to that that many folk (quite probably the largest portion of UK society) are sick to their back teeth of politics and want to get away from it. Some people genuinely do come here to read this thread because it doesn't have either the political or rugby tribalism wrecking it. It's supposed to be a sane space.

I know this because they're the ones who hit "report" and send me messages asking me nicely to keep this bit of the forum politics free. It's the same principle as why we have a cross-code forum, people with that particular set of desires to argue either way on that can go there and pleasure each other out of the sight of civilised folk.

I turn a bit of a blind eye to political posts that are done with good intent and are clearly not tribal as long as they're rare and don't materially set it up to be responded to by someone who will make it tribal.

Please keep the forum as sane as you can make it. As a guide, if you're saying ANYTHING about this government or any other government action then it's political whether it's good news or not. Only if you can truly justify it as genuinely not a political point should you post it on this thread.

Treat this like a pub. This is the lounge where you can bring your family and the bar staff will shoo along the angry old drunks who just can't let people enjoy a pint in peace to the bar next door. The bar is where the angry old drunks can just rant about the world all day out of the sight of civilised folk.

Oh, and 88 posts moved to the politics thread!

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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18 minutes ago, ckn said:

The problem is that someone will, add to that that many folk (quite probably the largest portion of UK society) are sick to their back teeth of politics and want to get away from it. Some people genuinely do come here to read this thread because it doesn't have either the political or rugby tribalism wrecking it. It's supposed to be a sane space.

etc etc etc etc.

Oh, and 88 posts moved to the politics thread!

I agree, although sometimes someone may think something is political when its not intended to be. Then again our inner unknown bias may prevent us seeing it.

Anyway keep up the good work... it mustn't be easy but we or more precise myself do appreciate what your doing to try and keep us on the straight and narrow of polite and civilised discussion.

Thanks again...

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1 hour ago, ckn said:

The problem is that someone will, add to that that many folk (quite probably the largest portion of UK society) are sick to their back teeth of politics and want to get away from it. Some people genuinely do come here to read this thread because it doesn't have either the political or rugby tribalism wrecking it. It's supposed to be a sane space.

I know this because they're the ones who hit "report" and send me messages asking me nicely to keep this bit of the forum politics free. It's the same principle as why we have a cross-code forum, people with that particular set of desires to argue either way on that can go there and pleasure each other out of the sight of civilised folk.

I turn a bit of a blind eye to political posts that are done with good intent and are clearly not tribal as long as they're rare and don't materially set it up to be responded to by someone who will make it tribal.

Please keep the forum as sane as you can make it. As a guide, if you're saying ANYTHING about this government or any other government action then it's political whether it's good news or not. Only if you can truly justify it as genuinely not a political point should you post it on this thread.

Treat this like a pub. This is the lounge where you can bring your family and the bar staff will shoo along the angry old drunks who just can't let people enjoy a pint in peace to the bar next door. The bar is where the angry old drunks can just rant about the world all day out of the sight of civilised folk.

Oh, and 88 posts moved to the politics thread!

Indeed, and apologies for my part in it, I have little desire to turn everything political, but it is hard to not discuss government performance when the conversation is about test numbers. 

I'll certainly try and be more mindful of it. 

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20 minutes ago, Dave T said:

 I have little desire to turn everything political

 

you could turn a 4 year olds birthday party at jungle jims in to a political debate 

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they come swinging round that corner, they think they're benny goodman

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3 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said:

you could turn a 4 year olds birthday party at jungle jims in to a political debate 

I'm conscious that your reality isn't like most other people's, but to clarify I am not a prolific poster on politics treads here as they are too time consuming. 

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