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From the BBC rolling news

Qatar has made the wearing of face masks compulsory, with repeated offenders facing a jail term of up to three years or a fine of up to $55,000 (£45,000)

If introduced here then maybe the authorities would see some more cooperation?

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2 hours ago, LeeF said:

The total announced of 170 for the UK is 98 lower than last Sunday and the lowest total since the day after lockdown. Green shoots maybe?

Unfortunately, the tool used to record deaths was down for 18 of the 24 hours that that number covered. It’s a number you can’t put much credibility towards. 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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28 minutes ago, ckn said:

Unfortunately, the tool used to record deaths was down for 18 of the 24 hours that that number covered. It’s a number you can’t put much credibility towards. 

No mention of that within the announcement or on the BBC site

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43 minutes ago, ckn said:

Unfortunately, the tool used to record deaths was down for 18 of the 24 hours that that number covered. It’s a number you can’t put much credibility towards. 

Jeez, how to put us all on a downer in one post. ? 

No mention of that on any news channel when they reported the numbers.  Would it have been possible for everyone to enter their numbers in the time the system was up and running?

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2 hours ago, LeeF said:

Without knowing the background in Texas it is virtually impossible to work out exactly what has happened. Were they over the original peak etc

It sounds like the 13 sailors never actually recovered rather than becoming reinfected?

The way things have played out in the USA, I doubt half the states locked down anything like properly in the first place.  

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1 minute ago, Saintslass said:

Jeez, how to put us all on a downer in one post. ? 

No mention of that on any news channel when they reported the numbers.  Would it have been possible for everyone to enter their numbers in the time the system was up and running?

It could be 100% correct, they could have all the deaths in in that 6 hours. Also, it could be hugely wrong. 

As we’ve seen, underplaying death numbers just encourages people to break the lockdown. 

I prefer transparency. If the numbers are iffy and potentially too low then the ethical thing is to say so. 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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Just now, wilsontown said:

I believe that the issue with reporting of deaths was mentioned in the daily press conference, certainly the Guardian's live coverage picked up on it.

I missed the beginning of today's conference and so I only saw announcements on the BBC and Sky.  Neither reported the technical blip with data recording.

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7 minutes ago, ckn said:

It could be 100% correct, they could have all the deaths in in that 6 hours. Also, it could be hugely wrong. 

As we’ve seen, underplaying death numbers just encourages people to break the lockdown. 

I prefer transparency. If the numbers are iffy and potentially too low then the ethical thing is to say so. 

Depressed further after your post by reading there have been three deaths in St Helens over the last 24 hours after three straight days of no deaths.  Infections have gone up again but only by the same number as on previous days.

So I don't want to talk about numbers of deaths anymore.  Instead I will pivot to the enthusiasm of the people on the Isle of White for the new App.  Apparently 66% of the people able to download it, have downloaded it. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

I missed the beginning of today's conference and so I only saw announcements on the BBC and Sky.  Neither reported the technical blip with data recording.

Yes, you're right. I just went back to check and it was mentioned in the Guardian's live coverage when NHS England announced today's death numbers, not during the press conference.

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1 hour ago, LeeF said:

Without knowing the background in Texas it is virtually impossible to work out exactly what has happened. Were they over the original peak etc

It sounds like the 13 sailors never actually recovered rather than becoming reinfected?

The 7 day average for new cases was 901/day in the week up to reopening. The last week has seen an average of 1369. Chart of 7 day rolling average of new cases from the end of March till now. Although by no means conclusive, the number of new cases appears to follow increased mobility, opening of parks and the ending of the stay at home order. 

Texas.jpg

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19 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

The 7 day average for new cases was 901/day in the week up to reopening. The last week has seen an average of 1369. Chart of 7 day rolling average of new cases from the end of March till now. Although by no means conclusive, the number of new cases appears to follow increased mobility, opening of parks and the ending of the stay at home order. 

Texas.jpg

Thank you

My, very simplistic & quick, interpretation of that graph is that the downward trend was not really occurring before they re-opened

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1 hour ago, ckn said:

Unfortunately, the tool used to record deaths was down for 18 of the 24 hours that that number covered. It’s a number you can’t put much credibility towards. 

I have just read on the Daily Telegraph site that there was a technical problem in Northern Ireland and so their figures were not included in the final tally (not for the first time).  Is this the technical glitch you are referring to here or do you know of another one?

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28 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

Depressed further after your post by reading there have been three deaths in St Helens over the last 24 hours after three straight days of no deaths.  Infections have gone up again but only by the same number as on previous days.

So I don't want to talk about numbers of deaths anymore.  Instead I will pivot to the enthusiasm of the people on the Isle of White for the new App.  Apparently 66% of the people able to download it, have downloaded it. 

 

Want to be even more depressed? Here’s the extent of the CQC holding care providers to account just now. 

They promised that from tomorrow they’ll  start calling NHS providers to see how they’re doing. Seriously. That’s it. 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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1 minute ago, Saintslass said:

I have just read on the Daily Telegraph site that there was a technical problem in Northern Ireland and so their figures were not included in the final tally (not for the first time).  Is this the technical glitch you are referring to here or do you know of another one?

The England-wide service was the one I mentioned, it impacted most English NHS Trusts. I didn’t know about the NI problem. 

I gave up watching the daily briefings and only watch them when there’s someone I know or like on them. For example, on Friday Dr Nikki Kanani was on, she’s a bit of a GP superstar

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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35 minutes ago, ckn said:

The England-wide service was the one I mentioned, it impacted most English NHS Trusts. I didn’t know about the NI problem. 

I gave up watching the daily briefings and only watch them when there’s someone I know or like on them. For example, on Friday Dr Nikki Kanani was on, she’s a bit of a GP superstar

Ah..  I was hoping you would say something like 'Yes, that's the one I meant!'  Alas.  That means the numbers could be even more rubbish than I thought. ? 

And then the CQC has clearly become a force to reckon with, if you happen to be a cuddly toy.  What a waste of space they are!

On the daily briefings, I still watch them except for Mondays when I'm on the ASDA run.  I watch them in case there is a useful update, as indeed there was today although obviously I'm trying to tell myself that we will be lucky to find a vaccine anywhere at any time in the future etc, etc, so as to keep hope dead.

I think I will go and watch a trashy movie to cheer myself up again!

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57 minutes ago, LeeF said:

Thank you

My, very simplistic & quick, interpretation of that graph is that the downward trend was not really occurring before they re-opened

The downward trend started approx.10 days (10th April) after the stay at home order began (1st April) while at around the same time mobility (somewhat counter intuitively - rebellion?) started to increase. About a week later (16th April) the trend flattened. Then a few days later (20th) parks reopened and just over a week later (29th) the trend started to climb, flattening again early in May (5th). The stay at home order ended 1st May and 10 days later the trend again took an upward turn. Now, it could be entirely coincidence but seems a bit too much to me.

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1 hour ago, Saintslass said:

Ah..  I was hoping you would say something like 'Yes, that's the one I meant!'  Alas.  That means the numbers could be even more rubbish than I thought. ? 

And then the CQC has clearly become a force to reckon with, if you happen to be a cuddly toy.  What a waste of space they are!

On the daily briefings, I still watch them except for Mondays when I'm on the ASDA run.  I watch them in case there is a useful update, as indeed there was today although obviously I'm trying to tell myself that we will be lucky to find a vaccine anywhere at any time in the future etc, etc, so as to keep hope dead.

I think I will go and watch a trashy movie to cheer myself up again!

The difference between this vaccine and the others, such as HIV, is that this one has almost everyone capable of making one doing so. HIV got high attention but very limited pharma attention as there was little chance of massive money in it for such a tough virus to treat. 

I’m fairly convinced (in as much as a complete amateur using media information can be) that we’ll have some vaccine ready this year. Even if it’s not wholly effective and has some side effects. 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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2 hours ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

The 7 day average for new cases was 901/day in the week up to reopening. The last week has seen an average of 1369. Chart of 7 day rolling average of new cases from the end of March till now. Although by no means conclusive, the number of new cases appears to follow increased mobility, opening of parks and the ending of the stay at home order. 

I know it can be slightly counter intuitive, but increasing testing will probably lead to increased cases.  So detected cases could be going up while actual cases are going down.  How you pick it out from the raw figures I don't know.  Some places use % of tests positive, but without proper figures that might be hard to get.

 

*proper figures means cases per actual test results, not postage.  

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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3 hours ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

I know it can be slightly counter intuitive, but increasing testing will probably lead to increased cases.  So detected cases could be going up while actual cases are going down.  How you pick it out from the raw figures I don't know.  Some places use % of tests positive, but without proper figures that might be hard to get.

 

*proper figures means cases per actual test results, not postage.  

I use number of deaths to number of positive cases as a guide for how broad the testing is.

The premise is that, for developed countries, the death rate is a constant, which means this ratio will be smaller if you test more than just the worst symptomatic cases.

For an individual country, if the slope goes up it implies that the scope of testing is being reduced and vice versa.

image.png.3aa816c780eb5074d56ddf5ce964dd12.png

So for this graph you could infer that the UK, Spain, Italy and Sweden are testing more narrowly than other countries.

The graph from the start of May looks like this:

image.png.c1a3e976658925d9556b56c5997447cd.png

Which suggests that the UK is indeed increasing the scope of its testing.

An increase in testing would always increase the proportion of positive cases detected, but the proportion of positive to negative results would decrease.

 

 

(*When you have a government who knows the price of everything & the value of nothing, they'll probably count cost of postage, so sending them first class will improve the data - sorry a bit political)

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