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Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his l

I'm not putting up with this goading of a volunteer moderator who does a sterling job on my behalf generally on here, but especially recently when I was ill for almost a month with what might well hav

Well my sister's fella is making very small steps in the right direction. From being described as as near to death without being dead, he's now sat up, off dialysis and yesterday was breathing on

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29 minutes ago, GUBRATS said:

That is scary , but is it a result of increased testing ?

Can't find any data for testing in Iran but I suspect not. Here's the deaths graph. Deaths look as if they've started (slowly) increasing from around 16th May, about 2 weeks after number of cases started to increase again.

iran-d.png

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On 06/06/2020 at 17:56, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

CV19 cases for Iran. Lockdown was begun to be eased around 20th April; you can see the effect

iran-.png

It's Sunday, so this prompted me to have a trawl through the data I've collected and have a little look and it seems @GUBRATS' intuition may be reliable. It makes interesting reading

I've used deaths per 1000 positive cases to give a guide to the level and scope of testing taking place, as I've done before.

The pattern for new cases matches that above:

image.png.d9daea96c2b4b092f434200be52fdeac.png

However, the number of deaths does not seem to have risen significantly:

image.png.dcabd13d9f54fc56c4ce36033deaba8c.png

Added to the evidence of the case fatality rate decreasing, it would seem that they're doing OK in Iran.

image.png.f73a95289eabcdc61e20b52e208244ac.png

In particular, if you look at April and May in isolation, the number of cases has stayed roughly the same and the number of deaths has about halved, which implies that they are really getting on top of testing and have the outbreak under control. They've released the lockdown when they are ready to test & trace... do you think it will catch on?

image.png.3bce65be70b4cca18078530528e34ea7.png

Unless, of course, the data are junk.

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52 minutes ago, Wholly Trinity said:

It's Sunday, so this prompted me to have a trawl through the data I've collected and have a little look and it seems @GUBRATS' intuition may be reliable. It makes interesting reading

I've used deaths per 1000 positive cases to give a guide to the level and scope of testing taking place, as I've done before.

The pattern for new cases matches that above:

image.png.d9daea96c2b4b092f434200be52fdeac.png

However, the number of deaths does not seem to have risen significantly:

image.png.dcabd13d9f54fc56c4ce36033deaba8c.png

Added to the evidence of the case fatality rate decreasing, it would seem that they're doing OK in Iran.

image.png.f73a95289eabcdc61e20b52e208244ac.png

In particular, if you look at April and May in isolation, the number of cases has stayed roughly the same and the number of deaths has about halved, which implies that they are really getting on top of testing and have the outbreak under control. They've released the lockdown when they are ready to test & trace... do you think it will catch on?

image.png.3bce65be70b4cca18078530528e34ea7.png

Unless, of course, the data are junk.

I've been having a bit more of a dig since making my post and there certainly appears to be no info on test numbers. As you say the (at least so far) lack of increasing death figures suggests that test numbers are increasing (and/or improved recording?) - the next week or two will likely tell. One thing I have seen is a report that most of the new cases are 'housewives' and that it's thought they may be catching/spreading the virus through lack of social distancing controls when shopping. The government there have warned folk to start taking their personal responsibilities seriously, otherwise they'll clamp down again.

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Interesting situation where I live in the Channel Islands. The Island initially had over 250 cases and 13 deaths during March and April. However, it hasn't recorded a single case in 39 days, and the last active case recovered over 3 weeks ago.

The airport and ports are virtually shut down until the end of August. You can leave but if you come back to the Island you must quarantine for 14 days or face a £10k fine.

Now it is inevitable that once the borders are reopened properly that some cases will creep in. We have had pubs, restaurants, gyms, cinemas, hairdressers open here for the last 2-3 weeks - this is phase 4 of 6. All schools are open for all year groups.

Is there actually a case where for the next couple of months we can actually forget about social distancing and enjoy the summer, hug people and start socialising properly? When it gets to the best part of 6-8 weeks without a case in a closed bordered population of 60k - exactly what risk are we talking about here compared to other health and life risks?

Edited by Scubby
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5 minutes ago, Scubby said:

Interesting situation where I live in the Channel Islands. The Island initially had over 250 cases and 13 deaths during March and April. However, it hasn't recorded a single case in 39 days, and the last active case recovered over 3 weeks ago.

The airport and ports are virtually shut down until the end of August. You can leave but if you come back to the Island you must quarantine for 14 days or face a £10k fine.

Now it is inevitable that once the borders are reopened properly that some cases will creep in. We have had pubs, restaurants, gyms, cinemas, hairdressers open here for the last 2-3 weeks - this is phase 4 of 6. All schools are open for all year groups.

Is there actually a case where for the next couple of months we can actually forget about social distancing and enjoy the summer, hug people and start socialising properly? When it gets to the best part of 6-8 weeks without a case in a closed bordered population of 60k - exactly what risk are we talking about here compared to other health and life risks?

I think that situation is pretty unique but as long as borders are closed and a very strict quarantine is in place then I see no reason why normality could not be resumed. Obviously there is a risk around goods imported but if correct precautions are taken then that should be minimal.

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Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his lungs.. he needed dialysis, ventilation and a tracheotomy. His consultant is highly regarded and saw a possibility for him so persevered when others may not have.

Nature did its bit and he is now at home in rehab. It will take a while but thankfully he didn't make the daily stats.

I may well have a drink now. 

?

Edited by Robin Evans
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1 hour ago, Robin Evans said:

Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his lungs.. he needed dialysis, ventilation and a tracheotomy. His consultant is highly regarded and saw a possibility for him so persevered when others may not have.

Nature did its bit and he is now at home in rehab. It will take a while but thankfully he didn't make the daily stats.

I may well have a drink now. 

?

Thank you for that!

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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1 hour ago, Robin Evans said:

Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his lungs.. he needed dialysis, ventilation and a tracheotomy. His consultant is highly regarded and saw a possibility for him so persevered when others may not have.

Nature did its bit and he is now at home in rehab. It will take a while but thankfully he didn't make the daily stats.

I may well have a drink now. 

?

That's great news.

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2 hours ago, Scubby said:

Interesting situation where I live in the Channel Islands. The Island initially had over 250 cases and 13 deaths during March and April. However, it hasn't recorded a single case in 39 days, and the last active case recovered over 3 weeks ago.

The airport and ports are virtually shut down until the end of August. You can leave but if you come back to the Island you must quarantine for 14 days or face a £10k fine.

Now it is inevitable that once the borders are reopened properly that some cases will creep in. We have had pubs, restaurants, gyms, cinemas, hairdressers open here for the last 2-3 weeks - this is phase 4 of 6. All schools are open for all year groups.

Is there actually a case where for the next couple of months we can actually forget about social distancing and enjoy the summer, hug people and start socialising properly? When it gets to the best part of 6-8 weeks without a case in a closed bordered population of 60k - exactly what risk are we talking about here compared to other health and life risks?

The Isle of Man is in a similar situation.  No new cases, no recent deaths, etc.  

The UK is down to 77 reported deaths over the last 24 hours (weekend caveat in place as always).  Damn shame about these protests.  We are making serious progress but it could all go boobies up thanks to the madness on our streets.

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Sad news though that the sister of a friend has succumbed to the virus. She was 42.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Things are looking really bad!

Mrs Ford, from west London, told The Sunday Times : "It felt like death. "I ached terribly in every muscle and joint for five days and was too groggy even to go to the Eliot prize for poetry."

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/brit-53-could-be-new-coronavirus-patient-zero-after-catching-before-first-known-case/ar-BB15ayWd?ocid=msedgntp

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Four legs good - two legs bad

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A whole bunch of clearly political posts moved to the right forum. Please remember to post political points there. If you don't have access to the political forum then please don't post political points on AOB, that is not the purpose of AOB.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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I am presuming my post about the spike of cases in Teheran and Tel Aviv was moved in error so I am repeating it here. 

This corresponds to fears of localised surges that we are being alerted about.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Niels
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UK now down to 55 deaths (weekend caveat as usual) and a drop in recorded positive infections too.  I'm dreading the end of June though because that's when we could see the impact of the marches filtering through (or zapping through, depending on the number of initial infections of course).

It was interesting at the Covid press conference to hear the update on the situation in care homes.  Things have really improved in the care homes based on the figures shared today.  And it seems there is a concerted effort, in part brought about by learning from outbreaks in care homes elsewhere in the world, about how to keep Covid infections under control in our care homes.

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One for those monitoring the numbers by region, how does London vary so much versus some of the other regions? 

In terms of hospitalisations, London had a far higher peak than every other area, but it has had a sharp drop and is now lower than many areas, including the NW and Midlands - what makes London unique here? 

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Meanwhile, in the USA...

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fceda2568-a8f2-11ea-a766-7c300513fe47?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260

As a whole, it appears that the death toll in the USA is reducing, but that includes the anomaly that is New York. This graph from the FT shows that, excluding NY, the death rate is reducing, but only slowly, primed for a second wave?

With the rises in South America, Asia and now Africa, it looks like the global death rate is about to increase too and surpass the mid-April peak from Europe.

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Schools reopening: Why primary schools in England may not open fully until September under new UK lockdown plans

Schools have said classroom sizes, social distancing regulations and inadequate staff numbers mean they cannot accommodate all pupils

https://inews.co.uk/news/schools-reopening-primary-england-uk-not-open-years-september-lockdown-plans-summer-holidays-441723

Common sense making an all too rare appearance, I think it maybe just a cameo role though.

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trayodasha-kula = image.png.ee0bb2be98badfd4cc6ff4395bca5f4e.png

 

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