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7 hours ago, Saintslass said:

Where I live we haven't had a positive test recorded now for four days.  We have a drive through testing centre based here as well as the hospital of course and we have had a mobile testing thingy go through the area a couple of times so I would imagine quite a few people have been able to get a test locally.  However, there will always be the asymptomatic cases and those who don't get a test for whatever reason.  Our deaths have fallen to 0-1 each day.  We went three days without any recorded deaths last week.  There is no record of hospital admissions and so I have no idea where that is up to but here in St Helens we appear to be in a relatively good position now.  We have recorded almost 200 deaths during the pandemic so far.  Our population is around 180,000.

I don't know the current situation in Wakefield as I don't live there atm. As the number of cases has gone down and the testing has gone up, it's likely that the testing regime is more adequate now.

The point on the testing was not really to do with the current situation, rather the historical/overall record. 250 deaths (to 15th May) from only 745 confirmed/tested cases is a 33.6% case mortality rate. This suggests that they were only testing a tiny fraction of those with the virus. There's no way a third of all symptomatic cases were dying.

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7 hours ago, Saintslass said:

Where I live we haven't had a positive test recorded now for four days.  We have a drive through testing centre based here as well as the hospital of course and we have had a mobile testing thingy go through the area a couple of times so I would imagine quite a few people have been able to get a test locally.  However, there will always be the asymptomatic cases and those who don't get a test for whatever reason.  Our deaths have fallen to 0-1 each day.  We went three days without any recorded deaths last week.  There is no record of hospital admissions and so I have no idea where that is up to but here in St Helens we appear to be in a relatively good position now.  We have recorded almost 200 deaths during the pandemic so far.  Our population is around 180,000.

There are 750 confirmed cases in St. Helens, out of a local population of 180,585

In St. Helens there were 172 coronavirus-related deaths up to the 15 May. In this area 27% of all deaths involved coronavirusbetween 29 Feb and 15 May

 

...

Only? 23% case mortality rate?

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5 hours ago, Wholly Trinity said:

There are 750 confirmed cases in St. Helens, out of a local population of 180,585

In St. Helens there were 172 coronavirus-related deaths up to the 15 May. In this area 27% of all deaths involved coronavirusbetween 29 Feb and 15 May

 

...

Only? 23% case mortality rate?

If there were 172 deaths, we can estimate 17,200 cases roughly. That could be much lower if nursing homes took a dispropotionate hit of the infections.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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34 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

If there were 172 deaths, we can estimate 17,200 cases roughly. That could be much lower if nursing homes took a dispropotionate hit of the infections.

How do you get that extrapolation?  

There have been a fair few nursing home deaths in St Helens.  One nursing home in particular was hit hard.

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1 minute ago, Saintslass said:

How do you get that extrapolation?  

There have been a fair few nursing home deaths in St Helens.  One nursing home in particular was hit hard.

The extrapolation was just taking a mortality rate of 1:100. It is a huge rough guess, we can say a range of about 4,000 to 35,000 really. Again, just rough guess.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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2 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

The extrapolation was just taking a mortality rate of 1:100. It is a huge rough guess, we can say a range of about 4,000 to 35,000 really. Again, just rough guess.

Yep, I guessed that! What I meant was why that particular figure?  Why not 1:200 or 1:50?  Just wondering as there appears to be a huge range being banded around at the moment, from the >2,000 to the ONS estimated 8,000.

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32 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

Yep, I guessed that! What I meant was why that particular figure?  Why not 1:200 or 1:50?  Just wondering as there appears to be a huge range being banded around at the moment, from the >2,000 to the ONS estimated 8,000.

The mortality rate in Denmark appears to be about 0.5%. That was after it was spread in the general population, but nursing homes and care homes were shielded from it. As that has not happened so much in the UK and the St Helens population are less healthy, about 1% seemed a rough figure. It was also a round figure to emphasise that this was guess work, had I chosen 0.94%, it might have seemed more calculated than it was.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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1 hour ago, Bob8 said:

The mortality rate in Denmark appears to be about 0.5%. That was after it was spread in the general population, but nursing homes and care homes were shielded from it. As that has not happened so much in the UK and the St Helens population are less healthy, about 1% seemed a rough figure. It was also a round figure to emphasise that this was guess work, had I chosen 0.94%, it might have seemed more calculated than it was.

Fair enough.

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In a day of bad news after bad news, this is a very welcome bit of good news. Deliberately posting off the Politics thread as I’m really not interested in “yes but” comments or comparisons. It’s just good news, be happy about it.

 

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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9 hours ago, ckn said:

In a day of bad news after bad news, this is a very welcome bit of good news. Deliberately posting off the Politics thread as I’m really not interested in “yes but” comments or comparisons. It’s just good news, be happy about it.

 

A friend in Spain is going out to work for the first time in three months tomorrow. He's both looking forward to it and moderately terrified.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Just seen this so haven't had chance to have a proper look over but could be interesting.

"Picturing Lockdown: Historic England's archive of isolation"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2020/jun/02/picturing-lockdown-historic-england-archive-isolation-in-pictures?CMP=share_btn_tw


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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1 hour ago, Robin Evans said:

Patisserie Bigot à Amboise today.....

Been a favourite visit of mine for 30 years. Opened again today..... I have so missed this gem

FB_IMG_1591103849222.jpg

One of life's pleasures - a proper French patisserie 

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6 minutes ago, Robin Evans said:

 croissants chaud...cafe....en terrasse.... parfait....

Everybody likes parfaits! - Donkey Parfait - quickmeme

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3 hours ago, Robin Evans said:

You can tell by the absence of dog cak!

There's more dog cak, certainly in the south of France, than anywhere I've visited in the world. Yes, I  have been  to Featherstone. 

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6 hours ago, Robin Evans said:

 croissants chaud...cafe....en terrasse.... parfait....

CKN employ the swear filter please


the grass may be greener on the other side of the fence but the crows are just as black

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