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5 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

I would suspect (no evidence) a lot of the 1300 were from ski trips and a arge number of those kids on Easter ski trips to N.Italy who then had minimal symptoms and passed it on 

As soon as it was an obvious major danger all incoming flights form anywhere with a case should have been quarantined for 2 week a (not just the ones from china using my kids school coaches)

Germany, Denmark and Austria (as examples) were in the same predicament as the UK, but with much higher numbers of potential infectious skiers coming back into their country. They didn't have the high infection and death rates

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10 minutes ago, shaun mc said:

Germany, Denmark and Austria (as examples) were in the same predicament as the UK, but with much higher numbers of potential infectious skiers coming back into their country. They didn't have the high infection and death rates

Without getting political - i believe they went hardcore test,track & trace from day1 whilst initially the thought here was that we could survive with herd immunity.

Hindsight heh, i mean who could have predicted this...

 

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6 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

Without getting political - i believe they went hardcore test,track & trace from day1 whilst initially the thought here was that we could survive with herd immunity.

Hindsight heh, i mean who could have predicted this...

Germany were on the case right away. There was an article in the NY Times on this

In January, before the height of ski season, they had a test developed. By the end of February they were testing 350,000 per day

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2 hours ago, Saintslass said:

Actually, as I remember it, Cheltenham and the Liverpool soccer match were supposed to be to blame.  In the article, the soccer match is pretty much dismissed as a spreading event.

I have attached an article from the Racing Post about Cheltenham. 

As you imply, there is no supportive evidence whatsoever to suggest a hike in cases from the meeting. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.racingpost.com/news/fact-check-did-the-festival-increase-cases-of-coronavirus/432186/amp

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5 hours ago, Niels said:

I have attached an article from the Racing Post about Cheltenham. 

As you imply, there is no supportive evidence whatsoever to suggest a hike in cases from the meeting. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.racingpost.com/news/fact-check-did-the-festival-increase-cases-of-coronavirus/432186/amp

Written by themselves to justify the festival. No different to Dim Martin justifying Wetherspoons staying open. 

Do you really believe those mass gatherings had no impact on infection numbers? And if so, why did we therefore stop? 

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6 hours ago, Niels said:

Irish horse racing continued after English racing did.

The last televised meeting was at Thurles. 

 

Ireland stopped racing with spectators 5days before Britain did, though a few carried on behind closed doors. 

The numbers of speccies are low though compared to 250000 at Cheltenham and their St Patrick's celebrations 

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Dear all, please remember this is NOT the place for posts of any political nature, specifically including those that criticise or support the government’s conduct over this. Come on...

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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6 hours ago, shaun mc said:

Written by themselves to justify the festival. No different to Dim Martin justifying Wetherspoons staying open. 

Do you really believe those mass gatherings had no impact on infection numbers? And if so, why did we therefore stop? 

Regarding the Racing Post it's a specialist sporting newspaper, similar to Rugby League express. They research their articles similar to Martyn and John I imagine. 

It has written critical articles where appropriate. 

I think if we can move on to now, then the weekend fixtures, especially Newmarket, were superbly organised. Jockeys wore masks for interviews, social distancing was adhered to. I think it set a good example as to how sport can continue in this difficult period.

Also speaking personally, it was a real uplifting tonic to have the racing back at the weekend. 

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17 hours ago, SSoutherner said:

I would suspect (no evidence) a lot of the 1300 were from ski trips and a arge number of those kids on Easter ski trips to N.Italy who then had minimal symptoms and passed it on 

As soon as it was an obvious major danger all incoming flights form anywhere with a case should have been quarantined in a govt controlled space for 2 weeks  (not just the ones from china using my kids school coaches)

I guess then it needs to be analysed how many went on to get symptoms and thus self-isolated as per the rules/advice.  Then how many days it was from when their got symptoms and how many people they contacted prior to self-isolation.

In addition how many didn't get the symptoms and hence caused more virus spread without knowing.

Then I can understand the impact rather than assuming all individuals had the same impact.

Wouldn't a government controlled facility be a bit like a cruise liner with regard to ease of spreading...

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On 06/06/2020 at 11:28, GUBRATS said:

That is scary , but is it a result of increased testing ?

 

On 07/06/2020 at 13:11, Wholly Trinity said:

It's Sunday, so this prompted me to have a trawl through the data I've collected and have a little look and it seems @GUBRATS' intuition may be reliable. It makes interesting reading

I've used deaths per 1000 positive cases to give a guide to the level and scope of testing taking place, as I've done before.

The pattern for new cases matches that above:

 

However, the number of deaths does not seem to have risen significantly:

 

Added to the evidence of the case fatality rate decreasing, it would seem that they're doing OK in Iran.

 

In particular, if you look at April and May in isolation, the number of cases has stayed roughly the same and the number of deaths has about halved, which implies that they are really getting on top of testing and have the outbreak under control. They've released the lockdown when they are ready to test & trace... do you think it will catch on?

 

Unless, of course, the data are junk.

I've deleted WT's graphs from the quote to save space (hope that's OK).

Just spotted this article on the BBC website re Iran https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52959756

Whilst number of tests has been increasing the proportion of positive tests has also started to rise in parallel to the number of cases since early May. Number of daily deaths is also continuing to edge up slowly.

_112813243_iran_cases_reality_check_v2_7_jun-ncx3-nc.png

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2 hours ago, redjonn said:

I guess then it needs to be analysed how many went on to get symptoms and thus self-isolated as per the rules/advice.  Then how many days it was from when their got symptoms and how many people they contacted prior to self-isolation.

In addition how many didn't get the symptoms and hence caused more virus spread without knowing.

Then I can understand the impact rather than assuming all individuals had the same impact.

Wouldn't a government controlled facility be a bit like a cruise liner with regard to ease of spreading...

i just meant a controlled quarantine as opposed to self imposed self policed quarantine at home - they could have used 4 star hotels or country clubs. They did that foir the china flights, the arrivals were bussed up the country to the Wirral and kept there under observation for 2 weeks

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As a sports fan (in particular of our game), I was pleased to see that the DCMS website highlighted that the recent lockdown easing in England which permits six people from diverse households to meet outdoors, as long as social distancing is respected, had scope for allowing some training to start amongst small groups of sportsmen and women.

As a village church choir director, I was disappointed (though not surprised) that nothing was said about the scope to resume limited rehearsing, albeit outside.  I have heard it said that choral singing involves the potential projection of droplets from the mouth far further than most other activities.  So, I have emailed DCMS to ask for their advice about whether having a sextet of singers outdoors would be possible or sensible, and are there any variations on the standard advice to which I should have regard.  No answer in the first 24 hours.  Watch - as the saying goes - this space.

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1 hour ago, SSoutherner said:

i just meant a controlled quarantine as opposed to self imposed self policed quarantine at home - they could have used 4 star hotels or country clubs. They did that foir the china flights, the arrivals were bussed up the country to the Wirral and kept there under observation for 2 weeks

I think that was because at that time Wuhan was in full epidemic mode whereas Italy was not.  Brits were in Italy when things started to get seriously bad there.  Could we have realistically quarantined all the people coming back from Italy, then Spain, then France?  20,000 people a day?  It would have been impossible.  The only other option would have been to close all our borders, without notice and thus stranding thousands of our own citizens abroad in the midst of a pandemic.  Where would they have stayed?  We didn't have enough time to give everyone time to get home.  

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Paper from April investigating 'years of lost life' (YLL) for those dying of CV19 https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 Not sure if the average would be a bit lower now considering the Care Home fiasco.

Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <=3 years for people with ≥6).

Edited by Les Tonks Sidestep
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1 hour ago, Saintslass said:

I think that was because at that time Wuhan was in full epidemic mode whereas Italy was not.  Brits were in Italy when things started to get seriously bad there.  Could we have realistically quarantined all the people coming back from Italy, then Spain, then France?  20,000 people a day?  It would have been impossible.  The only other option would have been to close all our borders, without notice and thus stranding thousands of our own citizens abroad in the midst of a pandemic.  Where would they have stayed?  We didn't have enough time to give everyone time to get home.  

Personally I would have given people the option of quarantined repatriation or styay there - i said sp at the time. The ones in Italy were covered under EHIC and the cost of paying the Italians for their care would have been an order of magnitude less than the cost of the lock down etc

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17 hours ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

 

I've deleted WT's graphs from the quote to save space (hope that's OK).

Just spotted this article on the BBC website re Iran https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52959756

Whilst number of tests has been increasing the proportion of positive tests has also started to rise in parallel to the number of cases since early May. Number of daily deaths is also continuing to edge up slowly.

_112813243_iran_cases_reality_check_v2_7_jun-ncx3-nc.png

download.png

Indeed. It's difficult to tell exactly what's going on in a specific country, the graphs only give clues for further investigation. I have no inside knowledge of the actual position in Iran.

It could be that they've increased testing but then changed the way they report deaths.

It could be that they eased measures and increased testing but there was a lag to increasing deaths because people were still cautious at first.

As you say, it would seem that the deaths are creeping back up again now.

image.png.83bf5bd957eab4beacc250d85edd1fba.png

 

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The Government is now suggesting schools open during August to catch up with work. I hope they will not fine parents for taking kids out of school during this time for holidays that have been (or will be) booked.

Edited by Bleep1673

Where were you last Thursday?

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On 18/05/2020 at 19:32, shaun mc said:

Plenty of clippers about a week or 2 ago when I was looking - Argos & Ebay. But Boots were sold out online

Should be able to buy a pair doing a grade 2 all over for £20

I went for a set that had longer combs, plus those that can graduate length around the ears

Did my own last weekend. Whilst I wouldn't pay much for the end result, its passable. The family assured me it was ok to go out on our Whatsapp video chat as I was able to show them the bits I can't see. The back is difficult though. I was conservative with it overall, and may be a bit more brave next time

 

I've finally got some clippers. A bit apprehensive though especially as I work and have meetings. 

Is it best to do a grade 3 at front and top also? What about fringe?

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Bleep1673 said:

The Government is now suggesting schools open during August to catch up with work. I hope they will not fine parents for taking kids out of school during this time for holidays that have been (or will be) booked.

currently parents are not fined so I would assume same going forward.

I guess your expecting the restrictions to be changed to allow holidays before then.

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12 hours ago, SSoutherner said:

Personally I would have given people the option of quarantined repatriation or styay there - i said sp at the time. The ones in Italy were covered under EHIC and the cost of paying the Italians for their care would have been an order of magnitude less than the cost of the lock down etc

assuming the Italians would have agree.

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6 minutes ago, Niels said:

I've finally got some clippers. A bit apprehensive though especially as I work and have meetings. 

Is it best to do a grade 3 at front and top also? What about fringe?

 

 

Best to do it on a Friday afternoon so if it goes badly wrong you have at least 2 days for the worst to subside. 

I would not try any tricky moves like layering, just set it to Grade 3 and go for it. 

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28 minutes ago, redjonn said:

currently parents are not fined so I would assume same going forward.

I guess your expecting the restrictions to be changed to allow holidays before then.

our childrens secondary sent an email out today - they are trying to plan for September and are seriously considering a marquee on the tennis courts to provide some of the required extra space !!

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