Nrl to expand again

[nadera78]

4 hours ago, The Great Dane said:

What you don't understand is that there're literally tens of thousands of people in Brisbane that fit that description, there're easily as many of them as there are Broncos fans, if not more.

There are the old BRL and QRL people, the "I only watch SOO" types, thousands and thousands of people who follow a team from out of town because for whatever reason they don't like the Broncos, thousands of expats that follow other teams but want to be able to go to the NRL on a regular basis without supporting the Broncos. That is just a sample, it goes on and on and on. 

No individual club is ever going to be able to capture all of those peoples imaginations at once, in fact it's probably impossible to convert them all into NRL fans, but a club that is well set up could easily average 20-25ish thousand from the get go, and they could grow much, much, bigger than that if they are successful and play their cards right.

As for something more than an anecdote, well in 1995 the South Queensland Crushers had an average home crowd of 21,029.  

Let's put that into perspective, in 1995 there were about 800k less people in Brisbane, it was also during the SL war, and the Broncos were not only at the height of their powers, but they were actively trying to kill the Crushers.

If the Crushers could achieve that under those circumstances in 95, then the sky is the limit for a well run club today.

This is more like it. A little bit of data is useful, although it's only a small sample. I think that the Broncos would again actively try to kill off any second Brisbane team - it's in their interests to do so after all. Same for any club in any sport.

I'll say again though, the NRL is in a great position if it approaches this in the right way - research the options, an open invite for interested parties to come forward, assess each of them individually and against one another, give the bidders feedback, ask them to reconsider their bids and come back for re-assessment, then make a final decision. Don't rush it, don't base it on hunches and guesswork, don't listen solely to people who are already part of the inner circle - take your time and get it right. 

[The Great Dane]

39 minutes ago, nadera78 said:

This is more like it. A little bit of data is useful, although it's only a small sample. I think that the Broncos would again actively try to kill off any second Brisbane team - it's in their interests to do so after all. Same for any club in any sport.

They've been openly supporting a second Brisbane club for a little while now, and even if they wanted to kill it it'd be extremely hard to do these days when all the clubs get grants of $13mil from the NRL.

What they do seem to be doing is trying to manipulate which bid gets picked from behind the scenes, but so are the Titans and about a dozen other interest groups.

It doesn't matter how any of them try to manipulate the process anyway, because the broadcasters always get their way. That's just how the NRL works these days.

[The Great Dane]

4 hours ago, Sports Prophet said:

Western Reds failed because they were responsible for return flights for their opponents and just two seasons deep, the club not only had to accomodate the transfer costs of opponents, but also a hugely inflated salary bill due to the SL war.

They didn’t stand a chance.

Not only that. 

The only way the Reds could afford to pay every bodies travel expenses was if they didn't run a reserve grade team to keep travel expenses down, and when they agreed to the ARL license the clubs weren't required to have a reserve grade. But once the ARL had sold them the license they changed the rules and made it a requirement that every team ran reserves, that effectively doubled the Reds travel expenses overnight and completely screwed their business plan.

Here's the kicker, the ARL had reviewed the Reds business plan and approved the bid, so they knew that the club's whole business plan and ability to pay for their opponents travel on top of their own was contingent on them only having to pay for one teams travel, but they changed the rule anyway effectively dooming the club for failure.

In other words the ARL knew they were setting the Reds up for failure, did it anyway, and then wondered why the Reds were so keen to get their hands on News's money. The Reds aren't the only example of things like that happening as well.

[The Great Dane]

4 hours ago, The Future is League said:

It is my opinion that the biggest losers of a 2nd club coming to Brisbane will be the Brisbane AFL club, as they will have to compete with NRL club every week in a Rugby League mad city, and the disaffected Rugby League fans from the Super League war and some no doubt have been supporting the Brisbane AFL club, but i think that will alter.

If the 2nd Brisbane NRL club gets the go ahead i expect the AFL to throw many more millions at the Brisbane club just to keep them treading water, and the knock on affect will be is that the GC AFL club will suffer and that will help the Gold Coast Titans

I think that is extremely wishful thinking.

Sure a second NRL club will hurt the Lions in a lot of ways, especially in the sponsorship department, and maybe the AFL will have to spend a bit more on them, but the AFL can afford it and the Lions have their market and what happens in RL won't effect that a great deal.

I'd be much more worried about a second Brisbane club's impact on the Titans and Suns honestly.

[unapologetic pedant]

10 hours ago, Allora said:

Many people that live in Brisbane have moved there from NSW and remember Brisbane’s role in the Super League Wars.

They were instrumental in what happened and had been rocking the boat for years after being welcomed into the ARL.

Brisbane for years had Teams that were chock a block with SOO players and dominated the competition, there best player appears to be their Accountant.

They are a team that has reeked of arrogance and had the pick of a massive player feeder system and yet still cherry picked any big name player they wanted from other Clubs.

The Salary cap did nor appear to be in effect for the Broncos for a couple of decades.

Throw in a Coach that some loved but many fans not from the Broncos disliked and you had it all.

I would not watch them for free with a Limo to and from the ground to a Private box.

According to you the core fanbase for Brisbane 2 is exiled fans of Sydney clubs, and Queenslanders who loathe the Broncos. How reliable are these two groups? The former might only start going to two NRL games a year at Suncorp when now they go to one, and will simple resentment of the Broncos be sufficient to keep the latter`s support through tough times. What and whom can Brisbane 2 draw on if the team is losing? Many of the factors, particularly demographic, that you cite for Brisbane are equally true for Gold Coast, but they failed to keep the crowds as high when the Titans started losing more than winning.

[unapologetic pedant]

6 hours ago, The Great Dane said:

What you don't understand is that there're literally tens of thousands of people in Brisbane that fit that description, there're easily as many of them as there are Broncos fans, if not more.

There are the old BRL and QRL people, the "I only watch SOO" types, thousands and thousands of people who follow a team from out of town because for whatever reason they don't like the Broncos, thousands of expats that follow other teams but want to be able to go to the NRL on a regular basis without supporting the Broncos. That is just a sample, it goes on and on and on. 

No individual club is ever going to be able to capture all of those peoples imaginations at once, in fact it's probably impossible to convert them all into NRL fans, but a club that is well set up could easily average 20-25ish thousand from the get go, and they could grow much, much, bigger than that if they are successful and play their cards right.

As for something more than an anecdote, well in 1995 the South Queensland Crushers had an average home crowd of 21,029.  

Let's put that into perspective, in 1995 there were about 800k less people in Brisbane, it was also during the SL war, and the Broncos were not only at the height of their powers, but they were actively trying to kill the Crushers.

If the Crushers could achieve that under those circumstances in 95, then the sky is the limit for a well run club today.

The traditional pro QRL sentiment for the Crushers was enhanced by their playing at the old Lang Park. This point of differentiation will not be there for Brisbane 2. Does the acrimony around the SL war resonate with younger people?

The real worry of Brisbane 2 is the threat to the Titans. If expansion leads to problems, and there`s a need to cut costs, the knives will be out more for the Titans than Brisbane 2. Yet the Titans have an excellent stadium, strong junior league, growing population and their loss would leave the field clear for AFL.

[The Great Dane]

27 minutes ago, unapologetic pedant said:

The traditional pro QRL sentiment for the Crushers was enhanced by their playing at the old Lang Park. This point of differentiation will not be there for Brisbane 2. Does the acrimony around the SL war resonate with younger people?

The acrimony from the SL war doesn't even resonate with most older people anymore, let alone young ones. Most people under the age of 30 either weren't old enough to truly understand what was going on, or don't even know what it is.

 At this point it's really only older hardcore fans who can't get over the SL war.

Besides, there's more than one way to create a point of difference. Class, geography, general attitude or feel of the club, etc, could all be used as points of difference.

One of the main reasons that you hear from people for not liking the Broncos is that they don't like the Broncos' brutal corporate nature. Making the second club more community and family orientated would be a great point of difference that would attract a fair chunk of people in of it's self.

27 minutes ago, unapologetic pedant said:

The real worry of Brisbane 2 is the threat to the Titans. If expansion leads to problems, and there`s a need to cut costs, the knives will be out more for the Titans than Brisbane 2. Yet the Titans have an excellent stadium, strong junior league, growing population and their loss would leave the field clear for AFL.

I honestly don't want to get into the Titans problems at the moment, but if we stopped progress to wait for everybody to catch up we'd be waiting forever. So they are just going to have to adapt to change like everybody else has too.

Besides the added competition could be the making of them.

As to whether expansion will effect their support from the NRL; well it could, but things would have to go very, very wrong for that to happen, and even if it does go very wrong it's much more likely that one of the new failing expansion clubs would be on the chopping block than the Titans.

[The Great Dane]

1 hour ago, unapologetic pedant said:

According to you the core fanbase for Brisbane 2 is exiled fans of Sydney clubs, and Queenslanders who loathe the Broncos. How reliable are these two groups? The former might only start going to two NRL games a year at Suncorp when now they go to one, and will simple resentment of the Broncos be sufficient to keep the latter`s support through tough times. What and whom can Brisbane 2 draw on if the team is losing? Many of the factors, particularly demographic, that you cite for Brisbane are equally true for Gold Coast, but they failed to keep the crowds as high when the Titans started losing more than winning.

The initial core fan-base of almost every expansion club for the last 60 years of Australian rugby league can be describe as a mix of people who are already fans of other clubs picking the team up as their "second team" (before it inevitably becomes their "first team"), and curious locals. So yeah, it'd be surprising if it were any other way.

The Titans struggles, and for that matter all the other GC clubs failures (except the Chargers), have been mainly because of chronic mismanagement.

Not only have the Titans struggled on the field, but they have disenfranchised their fan-base at almost every turn, so it's not really right to say that their crowds dropped off just because they haven't had much success..

If the administrations of new bid clubs are as inept as the Titans' has been then that is a failure by the NRL for not dotting their Is and crossing their Ts properly.

[Sports Prophet]

8 hours ago, Eddie said:

It is the priority though. 

Unfortunately, it appears that way doesn’t it

[jim_57]

14 hours ago, Allora said:

Why do you think a large City like Brisbane would be less successful with a second team than an untried city like Perth?

Some people have long memories, it is not a bad thing. Super League in Australia tried to steal the game and kill off the ARL to set up their own game for cable TV.

If you are ok with that then that is your business, I was not and many other Australians were not.

If Super League had got their way this code would be dead now.

Have the NZ Warriors ever made money?

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12271707

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/league/warriors/118019822/warriors-owners-promise-money-to-cash-strapped-auckland-rugby-league

https://www.ausleisure.com.au/news/auckland-rugby-league-takes-on-new-zealand-warriors-ownership/

 

 

I don't think Brisbane 2 will be unsucessful if done correctly (not Redcliffe). I was just pointing out that any team will struggle if they don't get crowds and sponsorship, who's to say Perth won't?

Oh I get Super League was a disaster, but still using it as something to hold against Perth when all of those people are long gone is the stretch of all stretches. Using a club's failure during the chaos and fallout of Super League as an excuse and not looking at the here and now is something I see a lot of as to why the NRL shouldn't expand, which is ridiculous.

None of those articles really suggest they're going broke. They might be on shaky ground if their owners pulled out and they weren't replaced but the same could be said for several clubs, it's a big if.

[The Future is League]

6 hours ago, The Great Dane said:

I think that is extremely wishful thinking.

Sure a second NRL club will hurt the Lions in a lot of ways, especially in the sponsorship department, and maybe the AFL will have to spend a bit more on them, but the AFL can afford it and the Lions have their market and what happens in RL won't effect that a great deal.

I'd be much more worried about a second Brisbane club's impact on the Titans and Suns honestly.

The AFL already has two huge money pits in GWS and GCS they won't want a 3rd.

There junior playing numbers are are in free fall in Victoria

Something will have to give.

[The Great Dane]

58 minutes ago, The Future is League said:

The AFL already has two huge money pits in GWS and GCS they won't want a 3rd.

There junior playing numbers are are in free fall in Victoria

Something will have to give.

Even if they do have to pay the Lions a few extra million it isn't going to break the bank, and participation is down in almost all contact sport.

[The Future is League]

6 hours ago, The Great Dane said:

Even if they do have to pay the Lions a few extra million it isn't going to break the bank, and participation is down in almost all contact sport.

AFL has reached its acme in Australia. It's in declivity mode which is irrefutable.

The young kids in Victoria now are playing soccer as they are aware that the biggest honour in team sport is to play for your country, not a Melbourne suburb.

[Sports Prophet]

6 hours ago, The Future is League said:

AFL has reached its acme in Australia. It's in declivity mode which is irrefutable.

The young kids in Victoria now are playing soccer as they are aware that the biggest honour in team sport is to play for your country, not a Melbourne suburb.

Soccer has long been the largest junior participation sport in Australia. Like decades long! Australian Rules is not under any threat.

[The Great Dane]

8 hours ago, The Future is League said:

AFL has reached its acme in Australia. It's in declivity mode which is irrefutable.

The young kids in Victoria now are playing soccer as they are aware that the biggest honour in team sport is to play for your country, not a Melbourne suburb.

The idea that the AFL has hit it’s peak is silly, there’s still plenty of room for them to grow.

Playing for your country is highly overrated, most people would prefer to be payed a ton of money to play a game that they love, and there’s not a lot of love or money in soccer in Australia.

[The Future is League]

10 hours ago, Sports Prophet said:

Soccer has long been the largest junior participation sport in Australia. Like decades long! Australian Rules is not under any threat.

 

8 hours ago, The Great Dane said:

The idea that the AFL has hit it’s peak is silly, there’s still plenty of room for them to grow.

Playing for your country is highly overrated, most people would prefer to be payed a ton of money to play a game that they love, and there’s not a lot of love or money in soccer in Australia.

The AFL is spending close to $30 million a year a year each on GWS and the GCS and all they are doing is treading water

[Anita Bath]

10 minutes ago, The Future is League said:

 

The AFL is spending close to $30 million a year a year each on GWS and the GCS and all they are doing is treading water

GWS treaded water all the way to the Grand Final last season

[The Future is League]

Just now, Anita Bath said:

GWS treaded water all the way to the Grand Final last season

With a massive leg up from the AFL and couldn't even sell half their ticket allocation for the final.

[Sports Prophet]

9 hours ago, The Future is League said:

With a massive leg up from the AFL and couldn't even sell half their ticket allocation for the final.

Sydney Swans were only getting 5k crowds early 90s. Now they are the biggest sports club in Sydney. Persistence paid off. Go figure

[The Future is League]

16 hours ago, Sports Prophet said:

Sydney Swans were only getting 5k crowds early 90s. Now they are the biggest sports club in Sydney. Persistence paid off. Go figure

The biggest leg up the Swans got was the Super League war.

The midgets won't get that luxury

[The Great Dane]

56 minutes ago, The Future is League said:

The biggest leg up the Swans got was the Super League war.

The midgets won't get that luxury

There's no actual evidence of a mass exodus of RL fans picking up other sports that they didn't already have a prior interest in because of the SL war, it's just one of those things that has been repeated so many times that it's become "truth".

What actually happened was just as the SL war was blowing up the Swans came good. They went from cellar dwellers to perennial competitors and won their first premiership as Sydney soon after that. Success draws interest.

What you don't understand about the AFL is that they are loaded and they are patient. They know that GWS and the Suns are going to cost them hundreds of millions of dollars in the short term, but to them it's a long term investment, they'll pay hundreds of millions now and get all that money back and more 20-30 years from now.

[The Great Dane]

On 10/03/2020 at 12:59, Anita Bath said:

GWS treaded water all the way to the Grand Final last season

Thank god they lost it as well, if they'd have won it the ACT government would be using it as an excuse to shower them in even more money.

[Hull Kingston Bronco]

On 08/03/2020 at 07:36, Allora said:

 

...They are a team that has reeked of arrogance and had the pick of a massive player feeder system and yet still cherry picked any big name player they wanted from other Clubs...

 

To be fair though they only sat alone on top of that large feeder system because the NSWRL chose to just add a single ex-BRL organisation into their Sydney-based league, rather then collaborate to build a national comp with more Brisbane, other cities and inevitably less Sydney sides in it...!

If Cronulla and St George are fishing in the same small beachside suburb that's 'cos they exist rather than Brisbane's fault eh

 

[Pulga]

 

[Horace]

The NRL and Channel 9 know that the cash cow is the state of origin  so Brisbane 2 will be followed by Brisbane 3 if a Sydney club falls over the NRL needs Queensland to by strong to face NSW and also put the AFL under pressure