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1 hour ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

Yes with Watford drawing the maximum return on this Yankee has gone down to £24 now.

I’ve got Palace or the draw in the remaining leg, but didn’t feel strongly enough about either outcome to back it alone.

One of us is going to be happy at least!

 

Well done, you are very knowledgeable about the football. 

You backed Brighton to win and Bournemouth not to, which was very shrewd. They were both difficult games to predict so you did well.

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1 hour ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

Loads of luck along the way, but I’m chuffed anyway!

You usually do well. I am glad you are pleased.

I think football is difficult as all 3 possibilities can be very likely. In retrospect statistically Bournemouth were a bad bet at 6/4 as I know they don't win 4 games out of 10. 

Any bets on the game tomorrow? 

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8 hours ago, Niels said:

You usually do well. I am glad you are pleased.

I think football is difficult as all 3 possibilities can be very likely. In retrospect statistically Bournemouth were a bad bet at 6/4 as I know they don't win 4 games out of 10. 

Any bets on the game tomorrow? 

Another Yankee I think on four of today’s games:

Newcastle Utd vs Sheffield Utd:  I think both sides are a bit toothless in front of goal so I’ve gone for Newcastle and the draw which seemed to offer more value.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea:  This is my punt as Villa are a big price, but Chelsea have lacked consistency all season.  I’ve added the draw and will watch with interest.

Cardiff City vs Leeds Utd:  I suspect this would have been a more intimidating game for Leeds in a full stadium.  

Heidenheim vs Hamburg:  This is almost to decide who reaches the promotion playoff for the Bundesliga from the German 2nd division.  Hamburg have been faltering of late, but a draw would help them here.  This is the big chance for Heidenhem to leapfrog Hamburg so I’ll take them and the draw.

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4 hours ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

Cashed out on Villa at HT after a shaky first half despite leading 1-0 for £12

Stuck £8 on Chelsea at 7/4 to comeback and win and they score two in a minute - cashed that out too for £20.

Earlier in the day Newcastle and Heidenheim came through making up for Leeds meltdown in Cardiff.

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Well done, sorry I just saw your post now. I am glad to see what your bets were. 

You did well with the Chelsea game especially. I was pleased too that the game turned around. 

I didn't see the Merseyside derby - usually I like to watch it if the fans are there. 

There are midweek games so we can have a look at these. A lot of the previous form seems to have held up despite the break. Do you think? 

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1 hour ago, Niels said:

Well done, sorry I just saw your post now. I am glad to see what your bets were. 

You did well with the Chelsea game especially. I was pleased too that the game turned around. 

I didn't see the Merseyside derby - usually I like to watch it if the fans are there. 

There are midweek games so we can have a look at these. A lot of the previous form seems to have held up despite the break. Do you think? 

It was mentioned today during the build up to the game that the new rule for five substitutions hands a big advantage to the teams with greater squad depth and I think we saw that in the Villa-Chelsea game.

This would be the case with three subs, but I think it skews things more in favour of certain clubs.  I feel this will be a bigger factor than previous form at this present moment although in part I agree the better teams this year still look superior after the break.

Two other aspects: the teams involved in European competition have gained rest and conditioning plus the concentrated amount of games should again favour the teams with the greatest strength in depth.

Of course for one off bets you still can look at things like injuries to key players, individual matchups/clashes of systems/playing styles plus modern helpful information like xG can often indicate how previous games played out when trying to forecast a result.  

 

  

 

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Cashed out for £30+ profit on a six game bet

chelsea win

liverpool Everton draw bottled it halfway through the Liverpool game. which is fine a profits a profit. 
The other games were all down as draws

 

Leicester v Brighton

Spurs v West Ham

Man U v Sheffield Utd 

Newcastle v Villa 

I just need them to not come in now or I’ll be kicking myself. 
 

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12 hours ago, Niels said:

I didn't see the Merseyside derby

It was largely very boring . Everton basically didn’t believe they could beat them from the start , even at home , and just defended and hoofed it away for 80 minutes , while Liverpool had all the ball and created nothing . Then Everton played for a few minutes and had 3 chances and should have won . Liverpool basically just went through the motions , which was enough .Everton still have some dead wood that needs clearing , but Seamus Coleman was outstanding 

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2 minutes ago, DavidM said:

It was largely very boring . Everton basically didn’t believe they could beat them from the start , even at home , and just defended and hoofed it away for 80 minutes , while Liverpool had all the ball and created nothing . Then Everton played for a few minutes and had 3 chances and should have won . Liverpool basically just went through the motions . Everton still have some dead wood that needs clearing , but Seamus Coleman was outstanding 

I think had Everton won it would have been the ultimate smash and grab.

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3 minutes ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

I think had Everton won it would have been the ultimate smash and grab.

You can say if they’d opened up the game it could have been nasty , but fans don’t want to see you playing like that at home in a derby . They never used to . There’s a mental block no doubt , but that game could have been won . Especially  first up and Liverpool pretty much coasting it really . Unfortunately the chance came to Tom Davies who runs around a lot but has basically zero quality 

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12 minutes ago, DavidM said:

You can say if they’d opened up the game it could have been nasty , but fans don’t want to see you playing like that at home in a derby . They never used to . There’s a mental block no doubt , but that game could have been won . Especially  first up and Liverpool pretty much coasting it really . Unfortunately the chance came to Tom Davies who runs around a lot but has basically zero quality 

I thought Everton were very disciplined and did a good job in particular of making Trent Alexander-Arnold a non factor for much of the match.

From a Liverpool perspective, I thought we lost our way when Firmino and Naby Keita were withdrawn for Origi and Wijnaldum.  It doesn’t help either that Matip had to go off and Lovren came on and made some positional errors at the back including a big one leading directly to Everton eventually hitting the post.  For me, he reads the game poorly and is our worst option as a senior central defender.

Our best chances came in the first half when TAA whipped in a cross that Matip headed wide and when Firmino drove into the edge of the box but dragged his shot wide of the post.

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Bit of cash out advice I’ve got two bets with the same teams one an £11 Yankee the other a £15 lucky 15. Both bets have 3 correct results

Liverpool v Everton draw

City win 

Leicester v Brighton draw

With Spurs v West Ham draw as the last game. Do I cash out on one ( one offering £86 and one £96) to cover myself, wait till the offer goes up or turn my phone off and  let it ride. 

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8 minutes ago, bobbruce said:

Bit of cash out advice I’ve got two bets with the same teams one an £11 Yankee the other a £15 lucky 15. Both bets have 3 correct results

Liverpool v Everton draw

City win 

Leicester v Brighton draw

With Spurs v West Ham draw as the last game. Do I cash out on one ( one offering £86 and one £96) to cover myself, wait till the offer goes up or turn my phone off and  let it ride. 

Nice bets!

I’d cash one maybe as you suggest.

 

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2 minutes ago, bobbruce said:

Waiting for half time but got a let off there. 

Yes, indeed and Spurs looking stronger as the half wore on, but I still wouldn’t like to say for sure how this will finish.

I remember once having a Yankee on Chelsea, Newcastle, Sheffield Utd and Portsmouth to win their respective divisions.

I won £800 but cashed out before Newcastle and Brighton went into the last day of the season with a chance of winning the Championship.

It ‘cost’ me £300 but I avoided the stress of that 90 minutes!  Haha 

 

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1 minute ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

Yes, indeed and Spurs looking stronger as the half wore on, but I still wouldn’t like to say for sure how this will finish.

I remember once having a Yankee on Chelsea, Newcastle, Sheffield Utd and Portsmouth to win their respective divisions.

I won £800 but cashed out before Newcastle and Brighton went into the last day of the season with a chance of winning the Championship.

It ‘cost’ me £300 but I avoided the stress of that 90 minutes!  Haha 

 

I find cash out really difficult I usually take the view of just letting it ride. I’ll take my warning in this one though. 

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I had a decent amount by my standards on the following this weekend. 

Over 1.5 Offsides for Newcastle United (vs Sheff Utd) - 8/13. 

Over 3.5 Offsides in the Newcastle United be Sheffield United game - 4/6. 

It was 2nd v 3rd in terms of teams who had the most offsides given against them this season so pricing it at a probability of 60-62% made me think there was some value still there. 

Have also done the following for tonight’s game:

West Ham to have Under 10.5 shots - 4/5. 

They’re currently on 1. 

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No idea if anyone understands the Asian Handicap that bookies offer but I’ve done the following;

Norwich City (vs Everton) +0.5, +1.0 @ 1.675

Norwich have had a couple extra days rest, Everton’s away form, while improved under Ancelotti, is not fantastic and Norwich have failed to score in 3/15 home games this season, so are hopefully good for a goal again this evening. 

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8 hours ago, DavidM said:

How utterly bizarre , just gave that horse way too much rope and gifted it the race . Be a few explanations required there 

I noticed the pundits never criticise the jockeys much. 

Aiden seems very shrewd, he said the horse would stay Im 6f so in retrospect it was never going to stop. 

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7 hours ago, Niels said:

noticed the pundits never criticise the jockeys much. 

This exactly . Racing is one sport where the media is largely uncritical . It’s quite unique really , it’s a bit of a bubble based in a few hubs and it’s quite incestuous - those in the media are linked or related to those in the sport , or you don’t want to upset anyone or they won’t talk to you . Everyone knows everyone else and it’s often just anodyne.... every jockey is riding at the top of their form , they’re all wonderful , every trainer is marvellous etc . If you watch racing you see a lot of terrible tactical rides but they hardly ever go there and criticise heavily . Yesterday if you saw the general reaction it was scathing , but tv didn’t get beyond shock and surprise . Aidan gets a lot of stick but you can’t blame him - he’s a genius strategist . His third fourth and fifth choices are still better than most other horses . And he’s never afraid of throwing his horses in , and against each other which is rare with trainers n owners nowadays . And without his horses some fields would be very skinny ! 

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Serpentine was one of only a handful of horses who would genuinely stay . It had tuned up for the race by winning it`s last race by 9 lengths . Dettori who was on a genuine stayer chose to track Mogul and hope he towed him in to the race , that was a big mistake  , but i just think the jockeys thought Serpentine was Aidens 4th or 5th choice horse and chose to ignore it`s previous form .......Love broke Enables course record in the Oaks , Serpentines time in the Derby was almost identical , so it was no fluke .

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