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scotchy1

How do you rescue a season?

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55 minutes ago, Toby Chopra said:

In an ideal world, yes, but the owners have a choice to simply walk away, none of them make money from the game or earn a living from it. And if they all do it together, they have incredible leverage, they could simply let the clubs (which are private businesses) go bust, and then start up a load of newcos. If the RFL refused to let them in, they'd go on their own. I don't see what leverage the players have to force the owners to take the hit here. I'm afraid they're just some of millions of people who will lose income when their business stops producing for a period. 

I'm not sure that is true, many clubs own some substantial assets that owners wont walk away from. 

Outside 5 or 6 clubs (the ones least likely to disappear) the rest arent big enough to start again outside the RFL. They barely wash their face with free money from the RFL, they arent thriving whe  they are paying someone to do the work the RFL does.

Perhaps we would see some failures but that would likely be clubs who arent moving forward regardless of the coronavirus. 

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8 hours ago, scotchy1 said:

Wayne bennet suggested quarantining players in one area and playing all matches in one stadium on tv.

Seems possible but would be difficult and doesnt really address what happens if the virus spreads through players

Would they accept being sequestered for a couple of months?

Players are young, fit, and strong and are very very unlikely to suffer much from the virus. There is a question of how much we need to protect players themselves (their close family are likely to be similar unless immunocompromised) compared to the normal flu. The bigger risk for them is as carriers but how much is that risk increased by playing? 

Plus if you isolated players and their families for 2 weeks or so you would be pretty sure who did and didnt have it. 

You could stop for two weeks. Find somewhere like dubai, rent a few hotels. Isolate and quarantine players, coaches, their immediate families, refs etc, and play all matches at one stadium in pretty much the same fixture format. Sell the extra televised games back to sky, see of the BBC want any extra CC games now they have lost all other sport, and just keep playing. 

The risk to players would probably be less in that situation than it would be being in the general uk population and not playing, no risk to fans as they arent going to be there 

That’s Wayne Bennett’s crappiest idea since he thought Blake Austin was a winger and Ash Handley looked better sat in the stands. 

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12 hours ago, scotchy1 said:

I'm not sure that is true, many clubs own some substantial assets that owners wont walk away from. 

Outside 5 or 6 clubs (the ones least likely to disappear) the rest arent big enough to start again outside the RFL. They barely wash their face with free money from the RFL, they arent thriving whe  they are paying someone to do the work the RFL does.

Perhaps we would see some failures but that would likely be clubs who arent moving forward regardless of the coronavirus. 

Yeah that's a fair point about the biggest clubs - there's probably half a dozen big clubs who own their own stadium who could borrow enough against it to keep afloat, especially if there's a shed load of cheap loans on the way. 

But the rest, including several in superleague, just don't have rich enough owners or valuable enough assets to absorb the hit. Players will have to be part of that, its just a question of sharing the burden in the most equitable way possible. Otherwise the vast majority of clubs will liquidate in a chaotic fashion and there's no guarentee they will come back. 

Maybe the pro game shouldn't look like it does anyway and has to change regardless, but we shouldn't use the crisis to rip through it in an uncontrolled way - the ramificationare for years to come going to be huge regardless. 

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This is what happens when you base your while business model on away fans buying pies and beers.

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2 hours ago, Toby Chopra said:

Yeah that's a fair point about the biggest clubs - there's probably half a dozen big clubs who own their own stadium who could borrow enough against it to keep afloat, especially if there's a shed load of cheap loans on the way. 

But the rest, including several in superleague, just don't have rich enough owners or valuable enough assets to absorb the hit. Players will have to be part of that, its just a question of sharing the burden in the most equitable way possible. Otherwise the vast majority of clubs will liquidate in a chaotic fashion and there's no guarentee they will come back. 

Maybe the pro game shouldn't look like it does anyway and has to change regardless, but we shouldn't use the crisis to rip through it in an uncontrolled way - the ramificationare for years to come going to be huge regardless. 

It's not necessarily about ripping through it in an uncontrolled way. It's more that tough decisions are going to need to be taken. We can either take the tough necessary decisions or we can take tough decisions to try (and likely fail) to retain the status quo.

There just isnt the money in the game to just hold on. We either innovate or die, and those that wont and dont innovate are only postponing the inevitable anyway and they shouldn't do that on the backs of players being unable to pay their mortgages

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1 hour ago, scotchy1 said:

It's not necessarily about ripping through it in an uncontrolled way. It's more that tough decisions are going to need to be taken. We can either take the tough necessary decisions or we can take tough decisions to try (and likely fail) to retain the status quo.

There just isnt the money in the game to just hold on. We either innovate or die, and those that wont and dont innovate are only postponing the inevitable anyway and they shouldn't do that on the backs of players being unable to pay their mortgages

So the outlook then is that many of those players won't be able to pay mortgages from rugby income either way.

If no one wants a chaotic collapse, then a managed wind down of the pro structure will inevitably involve players giving up something too. As you say, there isn't the money to hold on, so it would be odd if - cumulatively - players were receiving the same incomes. 

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How do you rescue a season?

There are several options but they are mainly reworking of the Adam Pearson model:

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On n'est pas là pour se faire engueuler

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22 minutes ago, Toby Chopra said:

So the outlook then is that many of those players won't be able to pay mortgages from rugby income either way.

If no one wants a chaotic collapse, then a managed wind down of the pro structure will inevitably involve players giving up something too. As you say, there isn't the money to hold on, so it would be odd if - cumulatively - players were receiving the same incomes. 

About half of lower league clubs have either gone bust or severe financial problems at least once in the last 5 or 6 years without the Coronavirus, this isnt a short term cash flow issue, it's a long term structural problem with the business model.

The players are already missing out on match payments and win bonuses. I'm not sure what the point is of them subsidising a failing business model. 

 

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Rugby League has been a semi-professional game playing at, and failing in many cases, to be fully professional. In the aftermath of this it might have to retrench to being a strong  semi-pro game with what remains before it can progress.

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3 hours ago, Pulga said:

This is what happens when you base your while business model on away fans buying pies and beers.

No, this is what happens when your business is prevented from trading. 

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23 minutes ago, scotchy1 said:

It is in some respects

No it really isn't. 

Nobody has a whole business model based around selling pies and beer to away fans. 

It is just a load of bs. 

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26 minutes ago, scotchy1 said:

About half of lower league clubs have either gone bust or severe financial problems at least once in the last 5 or 6 years without the Coronavirus, this isnt a short term cash flow issue, it's a long term structural problem with the business model.

The players are already missing out on match payments and win bonuses. I'm not sure what the point is of them subsidising a failing business model. 

 

Because you're talking about the long term and I broadly agree with your analysis. 

But I'm talking about surviving the next 6 months, where players are going to be faced with the choice of being guarenteed something, or risking getting nothing. This happens to businesses all the time in the real world, and staff have tough choices to make. 

By refusing to consider reductions in salaries, you might protect the mortgage payments of players contracted to the richest clubs, but it hangs hundred of other players of "failing" clubs out to dry, as for them it's either cut wages or go bust. That seems to have the priorities the wrong way round. 

Conflating longer term criticisms of the UK rugby league model - which are valid - and a short term crisis, isn't constructive at this time in my view.

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On 13/03/2020 at 11:43, davet said:

Remove the loop fixtures is an obvious solution.

Not have Magic Weekend??

There must be insurance policies in place for these extreme instances.

Id do this for certain, scrap the magic and get rid of loop fixtures to start within needs be after consulting the players maybe play through the winter months if it does drag on.

 

Not everyone will write off the cost of a season ticket, the clubs have to be mindful most of its spectators aren't in a position to write off the cost of say a family of season tickets

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43 minutes ago, Dave T said:

No it really isn't. 

Nobody has a whole business model based around selling pies and beer to away fans. 

It is just a load of bs. 

A lot of clubs whole business model is based solely around playing 15 or so home games a year and they survive on selling beer and pies to away fans. It is a fundamental part of some clubs business model and without it they fall down

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13 minutes ago, scotchy1 said:

A lot of clubs whole business model is based solely around playing 15 or so home games a year and they survive on selling beer and pies to away fans. It is a fundamental part of some clubs business model and without it they fall down

Which clubs, out of interest? I can't imagine the income from beer/pies to away fans is that big compared to ticket sales, TV money and sponsorship, but I stand to be corrected

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32 minutes ago, Toby Chopra said:

Because you're talking about the long term and I broadly agree with your analysis. 

But I'm talking about surviving the next 6 months, where players are going to be faced with the choice of being guarenteed something, or risking getting nothing. This happens to businesses all the time in the real world, and staff have tough choices to make. 

By refusing to consider reductions in salaries, you might protect the mortgage payments of players contracted to the richest clubs, but it hangs hundred of other players of "failing" clubs out to dry, as for them it's either cut wages or go bust. That seems to have the priorities the wrong way round. 

Conflating longer term criticisms of the UK rugby league model - which are valid - and a short term crisis, isn't constructive at this time in my view.

But those 'long term issues' are going to come to a head within the next 18 months or so anyway. The entire game knows that 2021 and 2022 are going to be times of massive upheaval and adjustments anyway. There is  no point the game and the players subsidising a failing business model that we know wont survive 2 years. There is opportunity cost to doing that, the money, time and effort spent on that is money time and effort that cant be spent elsewhere.

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27 minutes ago, Moove said:

Which clubs, out of interest? I can't imagine the income from beer/pies to away fans is that big compared to ticket sales, TV money and sponsorship, but I stand to be corrected

Most clubs outside SL dont get a lot of tv money or sponsorship and ticket sales arent big.

100-200 away fans are a big part of their turnover

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1 hour ago, scotchy1 said:

A lot of clubs whole business model is based solely around playing 15 or so home games a year and they survive on selling beer and pies to away fans. It is a fundamental part of some clubs business model and without it they fall down

Pie and beer from away fans will be a small % of any club's turnover. It was a nonsense point to attack the game, and a weird one to try and suggest is right. 

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51 minutes ago, Moove said:

Which clubs, out of interest? I can't imagine the income from beer/pies to away fans is that big compared to ticket sales, TV money and sponsorship, but I stand to be corrected

It's nonsense to try and paint the clubs as small time and backward yet again. It's relentless narrative, but maybe some will be happy over the next couple of years. 

Edited by Dave T

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7 minutes ago, Dave T said:

Pie and beer from away fans will be a small % of any club's turnover. It was a nonsense point to attack the game, and a weird one to try and suggest is right. 

Not really, it may be an exaggeration to say that it is the main part of clubs turnover but it would be no surprise that it is upwards of 10% of some clubs turnover and that's a significant amount

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On 13/03/2020 at 11:26, Dave T said:

One slightly associated thought I have had is, as a season ticket holder, would you want a refund if the season was cancelled, or would you write off the money as a donation to the club to hopefully ensure survival?

Yes.  Would it also be best to cut loses and scrap the loop fixtures now if the season can somehow get restarted... and maybe scrap magic.

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