Which Sydney club must go

[Big Picture]

2 hours ago, Mister Ting said:

There were NFL 12 teams in 1959.  However I'm sure you are aware that another 10 were added the following year when AFL was established.  So, there were actually NFL 22 teams in 1960.

No there weren't.  There were 14 NFL teams in two divisions of 7 teams each and 8 AFL teams in two divisions of four teams each.  The latter didn't become NFL teams until the leagues merged 10 years later.

[Mister Ting]

37 minutes ago, Big Picture said:

No there weren't.  There were 14 NFL teams in two divisions of 7 teams each and 8 AFL teams in two divisions of four teams each.  The latter didn't become NFL teams until the leagues merged 10 years later.

Sorry, my mistake.

[Mister Ting]

1 hour ago, Martyn Sadler said:

But creating ten new teams, and a new league, was regarded as a foolish gamble by many.

It illustrates the general point that the more teams involved in a league tends towards greater success.

It leads to greater success when there is room for growth. The AFL provided had teams in new areas like Dallas, Houston, Denver and Oakland and San Diego. Those cities were bound to spread the appeal, especially in football crazy Texas.

[The Great Dane]

19 hours ago, Eddie said:

Are you actually a rugby league fan?

I'm so much of a fan of RL that I'd actually like to see it become everything that it could be, instead of watching it stagnate and die because of infighting and self interest.

It's fine for you, you can sit on the other side of the world in blissful ignorance, I on the other hand am in Canberra, literally on the the front lines of a centuries old culture war, just sitting here watching the Barassi line creep higher and higher while the NRL, and huge swathes of the RL community, pretends there isn't a problem. 

[The Great Dane]

19 hours ago, Martyn Sadler said:

Sydney Swans, GWS Giants, Sydney FC, Western Sydney Wanderers and NSW Waratahs.

Because I'm a one-sport man.

And any suggestion that Rugby League clubs in Sydney should be closed down, merged or moved out of Sydney is absolutely ludicrous.

I was in Sydney when the announcement to effectively close down North Sydney was made, and Rugby League effectively lost a whole swathe of support on the North Shore from that point onwards.

It can't afford to do that again.

I'm actually an old Bears fan, and this line about all the Bears fans becoming fans of other sports is BS.

Nobody has been able to prove it happened in any numbers, and what proof there is for it is all totally anecdotal. It's a convenient lie that has been repeated so many times that it's become truth. 

I know/knew at least a few dozen Bears fans, and I can't think of one that suddenly became a fan of another sport that they weren't already interested in. In other words, I can think of quite a few that became mainly fans of teams from other sports, but they were already fans of those teams prior to the Bears dropping out of the NRL.

I can name more than a few (but still a minority I admit) that became fans of other NRL teams (particularly Souths), which is supposedly impossible, but it happened so there you go.

[The Great Dane]

16 hours ago, Martyn Sadler said:

Some of the more successful football competitions in the world have no promotion or relegation, including the NFL and the AFL.

Promotion and relegation tends to weaken competitions, not strengthen them.

The point about expansion is that it should be expanding the TV audience and thereby making it more valuable, which is why the AFL expanded into Sydney many years ago. Although the TV audience for AFL in Sydney isn't large, it still contributes massively to the overall value of the broadcast rights for that competition.

True, but both the NFL and AFL have mechanisms for removing or replacing clubs that are failing, relocation and mergers.

The NRL refuses to allow that to happen, so they get stuck spending $13mil per club a year propping up clubs that can't support themselves.

[rlno1]

On 29/03/2020 at 19:47, Copa said:

The Bears have nothing to do with the Central Coast aside from their connection to that previous disaster of a team up there.

I was raised on the Central Coast and people there do not identify with Sydney at all. 

The Bears are out of the top league and won’t be back.

Sadly true, and a huge loss they are too. Union and AFL loving having the north shore to themselves.

[rlno1]

2 hours ago, The Great Dane said:

I'm actually an old Bears fan, and this line about all the Bears fans becoming fans of other sports is BS.

Nobody has been able to prove it happened in any numbers, and what proof there is for it is all totally anecdotal. It's a convenient lie that has been repeated so many times that it's become truth. 

I know/knew at least a few dozen Bears fans, and I can't think of one that suddenly became a fan of another sport that they weren't already interested in. In other words, I can think of quite a few that became mainly fans of teams from other sports, but they were already fans of those teams prior to the Bears dropping out of the NRL.

I can name more than a few (but still a minority I admit) that became fans of other NRL teams (particularly Souths), which is supposedly impossible, but it happened so there you go.

Do they still have a passion for the game they once had?

[rlno1]

I think Souths should be held up as the club that Sydney clubs should aspire to be like. A club kicked out of the comp, always struggling for money now are well run and a powerhouse. I think Balmain could easily have been another club who could have been like Souths in that with great management they could easily have survived. 

[GUBRATS]

4 hours ago, The Great Dane said:

True, but both the NFL and AFL have mechanisms for removing or replacing clubs that are failing, relocation and mergers.

The NRL refuses to allow that to happen, so they get stuck spending $13mil per club a year propping up clubs that can't support themselves.

Can you explain to me how they arent supporting themselves financially ?

[Martyn Sadler]

5 hours ago, The Great Dane said:

I'm actually an old Bears fan, and this line about all the Bears fans becoming fans of other sports is BS.

Nobody has been able to prove it happened in any numbers, and what proof there is for it is all totally anecdotal. It's a convenient lie that has been repeated so many times that it's become truth. 

I know/knew at least a few dozen Bears fans, and I can't think of one that suddenly became a fan of another sport that they weren't already interested in. In other words, I can think of quite a few that became mainly fans of teams from other sports, but they were already fans of those teams prior to the Bears dropping out of the NRL.

I can name more than a few (but still a minority I admit) that became fans of other NRL teams (particularly Souths), which is supposedly impossible, but it happened so there you go.

Because you can't prove something scientifically doesn't make it a lie.

I'm sure you're right that a significant proportion of Bears fans were also interested in teams from other sports, but after they were kicked out of the comp I'm prepared to bet you that 90 per cent of Bears fans didn't start supporting another NRL club. Why would they?

[Martyn Sadler]

6 hours ago, The Great Dane said:

I'm so much of a fan of RL that I'd actually like to see it become everything that it could be, instead of watching it stagnate and die because of infighting and self interest.

It's fine for you, you can sit on the other side of the world in blissful ignorance, I on the other hand am in Canberra, literally on the the front lines of a centuries old culture war, just sitting here watching the Barassi line creep higher and higher while the NRL, and huge swathes of the RL community, pretends there isn't a problem. 

If you're saying that too much money is going to clubs to pay players' salaries, when a much greater proportion should go to the grass roots, then I couldn't agree with you more, particularly in the face of the AFL's aggressive expansion policy.

[Hela Wigmen]

14 minutes ago, scotchy1 said:

Masses of people watch the challenge cup final, the grand final etc they are our biggest attendances of the year by far.

Also why are knockout games comparable to relegation threats?

The attendances for the Challenge Cup are decreasing. While still our second biggest attendance of the year, it is no longer attended as well as it was in the past. 

 

[Sports Prophet]

Wow, this thread is on its ninth page. @scotchy1 and @The Great Dane must be having a feast.

Out of interest, how many clubs should there be in Sydney, what makes you both think that your figure is the magic number and which clubs are you giving the axe?

Sorry if you’ve answered all three already. Keen to know all in one post.

[Hela Wigmen]

43 minutes ago, scotchy1 said:

What on earth does this have to do with relegation?

People aren’t attending Rugby League regardless of whether trophies are on offer or the threat of playing Barrow Raiders on a cold Wednesday night in the Sunscreen Cup. 

[Davo5]

14 minutes ago, scotchy1 said:

Fewer are attending the games when clubs are threatened with relegation 

Relegation or no relegation attendances fall when a club is losing regularly.

[Davo5]

18 minutes ago, scotchy1 said:

If the magic number, in a healthy sport, would change. 

I'd say 7 at the moment.

Which 7 

[The Great Dane]

5 hours ago, rlno1 said:

Do they still have a passion for the game they once had?

Depends on the person, everyone reacted to the Bears dropping out of the NRL differently.

[The Great Dane]

3 hours ago, Martyn Sadler said:

Because you can't prove something scientifically doesn't make it a lie.

Not only can you not prove it scientifically, but you can't show any evidence that it happened whatsoever except for anecdotes!

If you want to take it as a matter of faith that is your business, but that is all it is, a baseless belief.

3 hours ago, Martyn Sadler said:

I'm sure you're right that a significant proportion of Bears fans were also interested in teams from other sports, but after they were kicked out of the comp I'm prepared to bet you that 90 per cent of Bears fans didn't start supporting another NRL club. Why would they?

I couldn't give you a percentage of how many went on to follow another NRL team, it'd be a minority, but I'd bet that it's way more than you'd expect.

Here's the thing though, those that did leave the game did so because the situation was totally mismanaged not only by the NRL, but by the Bears themselves, and everybody else that was involved (as I said in an earlier post the whole peace treaty was mismanaged), and the cold hard fact is that the NRL has more than replaced every single one of them in other markets and that wouldn't have been possible if the Bears were still around.

At the end of the day the next club on the chopping block at that time was the Warriors, so really the choice was between the Bears and the Warriors, and if you were making the decision would you really prefer that the Bears survived over the Warriors!?

Another thing that we aren't mentioning about the Bears is that they were in the process of relocating to the Central Coast when they were forced by their situation to merge with Manly. So even if the Bears did somehow mange to stick around, it would have been as the CC Bears, and frankly a huge percentage of the Bears fans I knew were leaving the Bears once they completed the relocation anyway. So even if they did stick around a huge portion of their fan base was gone anyway.

[The Great Dane]

6 minutes ago, scotchy1 said:

The obvious thing that doesnt get brought up is would there still be 15k bears fans if they had dropped out of the top flight by any other means.

For instance if they were relegated wouldnt the bears have seen a huge drop in support anyway. 

If so we are left with the idea that to cater for a quite small number of people who would only support a team in that small geographic area we must at all times and in all circumstances have a top flight team in that small area

Honestly, if the NSW cup was broadcast and promoted like the NRL is (or was at the time) and the Bears were dropped into it instead of merging with Manly, then thousands of Bears fans that walked away would still be supporting them today.

It may have even been possible to galvanise the support base around the club if that had happened.

Unfortunately RL (and Australian sport in general) is extremely top heavy, so once you drop out of the top tier you largely fall off the face of the planet. A lot of the NRL's problems could be fixed if they worked on growing the lower tiers.

[The Great Dane]

4 hours ago, GUBRATS said:

Can you explain to me how they arent supporting themselves financially ?

It's been explained in this thread multiple times.

[Sports Prophet]

1 hour ago, scotchy1 said:

If the magic number, in a healthy sport, would change. 

I'd say 7 at the moment.

So, plucking numbers out of the air then.

[Sports Prophet]

21 minutes ago, The Great Dane said:

 and the cold hard fact is that the NRL has more than replaced every single one of them in other markets and that wouldn't have been possible if the Bears were still around.

 

That’s a strange thing to purport.

I would say that not one single supporter lost has been replaced in other markets. Those that have turned away are lost forever.

Especially strange to say they’ve been replaced in new markets, when no new market has had a team join the competition since.

[The Great Dane]

Just now, Sports Prophet said:

So, plucking numbers out of the air then.

It's hard to predict exactly how many clubs should be in Sydney, and where in Sydney they should be, because it depends on market pressures, and honestly not all the information necessary to make a truly informed decision is publicly available either.

But I'd say 5-7 is about right, especially when considering the clubs that have been saved from folding in the past.

I have a couple of questions for you-

Do you honestly think that Eastern Sydney, Southern Sydney, and the Inner West, need two teams each while whole cities of over a million people don't even have one?

If you were starting a competition from scratch would you have 9 teams in Sydney? 

[The Great Dane]

4 minutes ago, Sports Prophet said:

That’s a strange thing to purport.

I would say that not one single supporter lost has been replaced in other markets. Those that have turned away are lost forever.

Especially strange to say they’ve been replaced in new markets, when no new market has had a team join the competition since.

By new markets I meant expansion markets (i.e. anywhere outside of NSW in this context), and it's undeniable that there're more NRL fans now than than when the Bears dropped out.

Just take the Storm's fan base, and that is roughly one and a half new fans for every old Bears fan that was lost to the sport.