When will Rugby League return?

[Wakefield Ram]

3 minutes ago, rhinos78 said:

If and when behind closed doors games are shown on TV, is there anyone who wouldnt watch because of the lack of crowd?

Perfect solutions are great in a perfect world, unfortunately things are far from perfect, il take any live content i can get right now and would watch plenty of games i normally wouldnt, aswel as all the games i normally would.

They did a CGI version of The Grand National, not as good as the real thing but might work on TV.

[rhinos78]

1 minute ago, Wakefield Ram said:

They did a CGI version of The Grand National, not as good as the real thing but might work on TV.

Yeah we'r not getting as good as the real thing, we'd be getting as good as whats possible in the circumstances, which for me, is miles better than nothing.

[Angelic Cynic]

Latest on soccer.240 persons per each game

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/apr/17/premier-league-return-depends-on-progress-of-mass-testing-clubs-told

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

On ‎16‎/‎04‎/‎2020 at 18:01, Marty Funkhouser said:

How about it? Mr Ferguson is an "expert" who has previous form for economic destruction when his "modelling" resulted in the needless slaughtering of 6 million animals in 2001.

He is certainly practiced at covering his bets with his recent pronouncements covering anything from his doomsday non intervention 40 million worldwide deaths to his low full intervention estimate of 1.9 million deaths. We are currently running (with a slowing rate) at 0.3% and 6.6% of those totals respectively. So Mr Ferguson is currently 99.7% or 93.4% out.. Although his position will certainly improve he is still going to be massively wrong. (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6)

Regardless it is far from certain that a vaccine is going to happen. So we either let the economy and society breakdown completely (we have very restless natives after three weeks...imagine three long hot months esp in the gun toting USA) or we find another way or we accept but try to minimise the risk as we do with every other thing in life, some of which are much more likely to cause any particular individuals death.

The foot and mouth search was led by Anderson not Ferguson and I'm not sure it was discredited in any way. As recently as 2011 it was only postulated that mass culling might be able to be avoided by Charleston et al who commented

"The research, he says, "doesn't say that this policy was wrong" - but it does suggest that mass culling could be avoided in the future. These results imply that controversial pre-emptive control measures may be unnecessary.

"Instead, efforts should be directed at early identification of infection and rapid intervention."

Dr Charleston also told BBC News it would be worth developing simple test kits to detect herds that are infected before the onset of clinical signs, and also to detect herds that are not infected "so they would not need to be culled".

As for numbers maybe you've missed virtually every country in the world being under some degree of lockdown to keep both the numbers of deaths down and prevent healthcare becoming overwhelmed? Graphs don't suggest that numbers of deaths worldwide are slowing down as the centre of the pandemic shifts from Europe.

I also presume you think Prof Anthony Costello is talking bull as well?

[Angelic Cynic]

It seems the number of deaths in Spain has risen,after the lock down was loosened.

Not a very encouraging development https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain/spains-death-rate-rises-government-seeking-to-harmonise-data-idUSKBN21Z1R2

[newbe]

How will for example if Wigan, Giants have home games but the footy teams have home games., or any league team renting a ground.

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

4 minutes ago, Angelic Cynic said:

It seems the number of deaths in Spain has risen,after the lock down was loosened.

Not a very encouraging development https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain/spains-death-rate-rises-government-seeking-to-harmonise-data-idUSKBN21Z1R2

They only started to loosen the lockdown on Monday, it's far too early for that to have any effect on death numbers. 

[Blind side johnny]

5 hours ago, rhinos78 said:

If and when behind closed doors games are shown on TV, is there anyone who wouldnt watch because of the lack of crowd?

Perfect solutions are great in a perfect world, unfortunately things are far from perfect, il take any live content i can get right now and would watch plenty of games i normally wouldnt, aswel as all the games i normally would.

I woud watch it, at least to begin with, but if the games took on the character ofglorified training sessions then I reckon I would be disinclined to watch many games after that.

Most players say that their own spirits are raised by the crowd's response, whether for or against. Sadly I feel that the games would become soulless.

[ATLANTISMAN]

Sadly BSJ I think you are right after the novelty of 1/2 matches (Max) it would be like a morgue:(

[THE RED ROOSTER]

Kevin Sinfield and Tony Smith have a plan

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/kevin-sinfield-tony-smith-head-21883022

Now from my perspective the flaws with this plan are as follows :

If all six games were televised, and I do think SKY would want a third each week, then the problem with the other three games being on Pay Per View (PPV) is twofold:

Firstly it costs a lot of money to televise every game so you would hope that PPV revenue covers operating costs.

Secondly It is rumoured that the only other Rugby League PPV game, that between England and Samoa a couple of years ago had less than 1,000 subscribers. which is not encouraging revenue wise..

The championship matches could be covered through Our League perhaps but again would the viewing figures justify the outlay   For example, does anyone know how many watched London v York in the Cup?

[Chrispmartha]

12 minutes ago, THE RED ROOSTER said:

Kevin Sinfield and Tony Smith have a plan

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/kevin-sinfield-tony-smith-head-21883022

Now from my perspective the flaws with this plan are as follows :

If all six games were televised, and I do think SKY would want a third each week, then the problem with the other three games being on Pay Per View (PPV) is twofold:

Firstly it costs a lot of money to televise every game so you would hope that PPV revenue covers operating costs.

Secondly It is rumoured that the only other Rugby League PPV game, that between England and Samoa a couple of years ago had less than 1,000 subscribers. which is not encouraging revenue wise..

The championship matches could be covered through Our League perhaps but again would the viewing figures justify the outlay   For example, does anyone know how many watched London v York in the Cup?

I can see your points but I don’t think you can compare the games you mention with the situation we are in at the moment.

 

its the best plan I’ve seen put forward (or indeed maybe the only one) and if Sky support it I think it will be the best way forward until crowds can resume

[Marty Funkhouser]

3 hours ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

The foot and mouth search was led by Anderson not Ferguson and I'm not sure it was discredited in any way. As recently as 2011 it was only postulated that mass culling might be able to be avoided by Charleston et al who commented

"The research, he says, "doesn't say that this policy was wrong" - but it does suggest that mass culling could be avoided in the future. These results imply that controversial pre-emptive control measures may be unnecessary.

"Instead, efforts should be directed at early identification of infection and rapid intervention."

Dr Charleston also told BBC News it would be worth developing simple test kits to detect herds that are infected before the onset of clinical signs, and also to detect herds that are not infected "so they would not need to be culled".

As for numbers maybe you've missed virtually every country in the world being under some degree of lockdown to keep both the numbers of deaths down and prevent healthcare becoming overwhelmed? Graphs don't suggest that numbers of deaths worldwide are slowing down as the centre of the pandemic shifts from Europe.

I also presume you think Prof Anthony Costello is talking bull as well?

The Ferguson lowest 1.9 million estimate is with all the measures in place. He is, again, going to be eons out. He got BSE wrong (predicted up to 150000 deaths in UK alone , there have been 230 in the world  ) , Bird flu wrong (est  upto 200 million (yes!!!) , actual - 282) and Swine flu wrong (est 65000 actual 457) all massively , massively overestimated as is his current guess. And he happily takes the public coin for his "advice" . If he were not a professor and operated in "real life" he would be bankrupt very quickly with those type of forecasts. He has cost the country billions in the past but that is a drop compared to the current situation. In other guises he would probably be called a fraudster or snake oil salesman but academia allows detachment.

You will find it was Mr Ferguson who also advised on the foot and mouth...https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/11586365&ved=2ahUKEwiXzayDrvDoAhVnRhUIHRR0DV4QFjAPegQIBhAC&usg=AOvVaw2pmOgRrhukW5bb62RYkSNi

 

 

 

[Robthegasman]

I have said it a few times now I don’t think we will see any more rugby league this year.

 I don’t think even if we play games behind closed doors it will be safe to play.

Players get up close and personal because it is a contact sport.High risk of infection.

Then you have the hygiene issue where I assume that players go into a communal bath before taking a shower.Could the communal bath be another breeding ground?

And let’s not forget the players lives away from the rugby pitch.Some of them may have wives or girlfriends who work in the NHS,or themselves work in the NHS on the  frontline and that unfortunately can be a breeding ground.Indeed a Warrington player has been infected by this as his Mrs is a nurse or other NHS worker.

So let’s say we soon restarted the season behind closed doors and just one player from any club at any level caught this,I suspect that his teammates as they will have been in contact with them will have to self isolate and then you are talking about stopping,or at least one club having to stop the training etc etc.That takes us right back to square 1.

And I also think that this already extended lockdown will be extended again and again and again,with absolutely devastating consequences both socially and economically which I fear will see the streets explode with anger.

No I think and it saddens me to say it but the season this year should be written off.Cut the and let’s say it as it is and let’s stop faffing around dancing round the issue.Lets make the call and let’s as a game deal with what will have to be dealt with,which is not going to be pretty or nice,head on.

 

[Whippet13]

8 hours ago, THE RED ROOSTER said:

Kevin Sinfield and Tony Smith have a plan

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/kevin-sinfield-tony-smith-head-21883022

Now from my perspective the flaws with this plan are as follows :

If all six games were televised, and I do think SKY would want a third each week, then the problem with the other three games being on Pay Per View (PPV) is twofold:

Firstly it costs a lot of money to televise every game so you would hope that PPV revenue covers operating costs.

Secondly It is rumoured that the only other Rugby League PPV game, that between England and Samoa a couple of years ago had less than 1,000 subscribers. which is not encouraging revenue wise..

The championship matches could be covered through Our League perhaps but again would the viewing figures justify the outlay   For example, does anyone know how many watched London v York in the Cup?

The costs for the PPV would be vastly reduced as the production and broadcasting would already be in place for the regular televised matches, all 5 will be played over 2/3 days at one venue (You cannot have 6 games as Catalans are marooned in France).

There is no suggestion this is for anything other than SL, the Championship teams are excluded but still benefit as they receive a cut of the Sky money under the current deal so at least some of that will still flow to them (possibly).

Compared to England v Samoa this would be more accessible to people as it's on SKY using a well known delivery system, not an online non-HD streaming service people have to download, install and watch on their computers or set up casting. Club SL is also more popular than international friendly RL with the regular fans so there is a large potential audience.

The biggest problem I see with using PPV is that most fans have already paid to see their team at "home" via season tickets so in effect people would be paying twice to watch the same game. That has the potential to cause some discontent.

A way round could be perhaps to sell a weekly/monthly pass covering the games. Many people have taken the Sky Sports payment break and I'd be happy to pay the equivalent of the full amount for a weekly/monthly pass as I only ever watch RL on Sky Sports anyway.

[Harry Stottle]

11 hours ago, newbe said:

How will for example if Wigan, Giants have home games but the footy teams have home games., or any league team renting a ground.

Then the team that owns the stadium or pays the highest amount takes preferance, at the Leigh Sports Village which is now the home venue of Manchester United Ladies the Centurians have had to switch twice already this season, and because the stadium has always attracted football Blackburn Rovers reserves used it regularly and United U'23s (I think) still use it. So the stadium owner's to keep enticing the football and making sure the ground is in tip top condition a month long maintenance programme takes place every June which stops the Centurions playing there.

[Toby Chopra]

Mr Money Saving Expert Martin Lewis says "follow the money" regarding lockdown. I think he's right: furlough has just been extended until end June at least, so that tells me that most if not all of current measures will remain in place until then, including social distancing advice. I struggle to see how sports training or games are possible until that advice is relaxed - it's not just about the players themselves, it's onward transmission. It's a lawsuit waiting to happen. 

So no games before August I'd say, and behind closed doors for much of the rest of the year. 

Regarding who plays, and TV, the plan for SL seems clear - play behind closed doors as soon as possible, and televise all games to fulfil the Sky contract. 

For Ch and L1 it's more difficult. If there's no crowds and no or little TV, then is it really worth playing? It might do more harm than good to their finances as although they'll get their regular Sky distribution, there won't be extra funds, and the ability of owners to make up the difference would seem to be lower in the lower tiers.

Ch/L1 clubs would be better in my view to cancel the season, wind down contracts as far as possible and use their Sky distribution to help put themselves on ice. 

Then when it's possible to hold games with fans again, start as soon as possible with an extended 2020-21 season. Run from October to the following September if possible, maybe even combine Ch and L1. 

As we've seen this week, it may well be easier for the smaller clubs to weather the storm and restart than the bigger clubs. 

[Wakefield Ram]

12 hours ago, Angelic Cynic said:

It seems the number of deaths in Spain has risen,after the lock down was loosened.

Not a very encouraging development https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain/spains-death-rate-rises-government-seeking-to-harmonise-data-idUSKBN21Z1R2

There is no vaccine. Lockdown doesn't eradicate the virus, so as soon as any lockdown is eased, the numbers will flare up followed by another lockdown to get the numbers back under control. 

It is hard to see any other scenario until a vaccine is developed.

Much as I'd like to see RL re-start, employers have a duty of care to their employees so unless the government decrees it is safe to play or players waive their rights and the rights of their families to compensation, then there won't be any games. If a player gets the virus and suffers badly enough for hospital treatment, their recovery could take months, it might even end their career.

[Harry Stottle]

10 hours ago, THE RED ROOSTER said:

Kevin Sinfield and Tony Smith have a plan

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/kevin-sinfield-tony-smith-head-21883022

Now from my perspective the flaws with this plan are as follows :

If all six games were televised, and I do think SKY would want a third each week, then the problem with the other three games being on Pay Per View (PPV) is twofold:

Firstly it costs a lot of money to televise every game so you would hope that PPV revenue covers operating costs.

Secondly It is rumoured that the only other Rugby League PPV game, that between England and Samoa a couple of years ago had less than 1,000 subscribers. which is not encouraging revenue wise..

The championship matches could be covered through Our League perhaps but again would the viewing figures justify the outlay   For example, does anyone know how many watched London v York in the Cup?

Nah it won't happen, more chance of the tooth fairy being caught in the act. 

[newbe]

43 minutes ago, Harry Stottle said:

Then the team that owns the stadium or pays the highest amount takes preferance, at the Leigh Sports Village which is now the home venue of Manchester United Ladies the Centurians have had to switch twice already this season, and because the stadium has always attracted football Blackburn Rovers reserves used it regularly and United U'23s (I think) still use it. So the stadium owner's to keep enticing the football and making sure the ground is in tip top condition a month long maintenance programme takes place every June which stops the Centurions playing there.

This is going to cause a logistical nightmare for clubs up an down the country.

[Toby Chopra]

15 minutes ago, Harry Stottle said:

Nah it won't happen, more chance of the tooth fairy being caught in the act. 

For the championship, I suppose the one way to possibly do it is to do what's been suggested for SL and select a couple of accessible venues  - one each side of the Pennines - and play all the games there, one after another, with basic Our League-style coverage. Each club could send a commentator, so fans can choose a 'home' club feed. But I still struggle to see that this would raise enough revenue from PPV or donations to make playing without spectators worthwhile for the second and third tiers. I'm not even sure that SL can afford it, but hopefully the owners are rich enough and committed enough to just about string it along to fulfill the Sky contract.

If you look at other sports, other than competitions that generate broadcast revenues they have cancelled everything else. Sadly I think we are approaching the time where it might be better to accept the reality and start again in the autumn/winter with a clean slate.

[Toby Chopra]

9 minutes ago, newbe said:

This is going to cause a logistical nightmare for clubs up an down the country.

We're certainly going to be down the queue for setting a revised schedule so we'll need to let football come up with their plan first. But given fans aren't likely to be attendance, I think it'll be relatively easy to slot in our games at short notice once the football schedule is known. It may well be that we don't use all stadiums either, if games are behind closed doors, just a couple. We don't even know which month we're restarting yet, so there's along way to go until we have to think about stadium bookings.   

[Hela Wigmen]

Approximately 850 deaths yesterday and people are dragging out a thread about sport returning? 

[Toby Chopra]

5 minutes ago, Hela Wigmen said:

Approximately 850 deaths yesterday and people are dragging out a thread about sport returning? 

If you're not interested, feel free to go elsewhere until it's all over. But there's actually lots of news coverage this weekend about how sports and other organisations are planning to restart, and what barriers remain. No reason rugby league shouldn't be part of that conversation, even if it's to start planning for the worst case scenarios.           

[Hela Wigmen]

1 minute ago, Toby Chopra said:

If you're not interested, feel free to go elsewhere until it's all over. But there's actually lots of news coverage this weekend about how sports and other organisations are planning to restart, and what barriers remain. No reason rugby league shouldn't be part of that conversation, even if it's to start planning for the worst case scenarios.           

And for the reasons I’ve stated above, 850 deaths in one day, it’s utterly pointless discussing it. It’s not going to be for a while and it shouldn’t. 

[Wakefield Ram]

17 minutes ago, Hela Wigmen said:

Approximately 850 deaths yesterday and people are dragging out a thread about sport returning? 

These are only the hospital deaths. The estimates are up to 40% more outside hospitals, so make that 1000-1200 deaths in a day. So as per my above post, there is no prospect of the game returning in this country any time soon unless players waive all their rights. We are still allowing c 100K people a week to fly into our country untested and not isolated from across the world.

But if people want to discuss how it could work in theory, then theres no harm in that.