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On 16/08/2020 at 07:53, Whippet13 said:

The convicts have some amazing attacking full backs, I just don't think many (if any) have the level of all round skills and experience Tomkins has. For me, being a full back isn't just linking into or scoring an amazing try, it's also about how to read things, be vocal and organise the team structurally. Tomkins completely and absolutely ran the show today, I'm not sure how many current Australian fullbacks can do that.

Dream on. He looks a bit fragile to me, can see him limping off after about 30 minutes vs. the Convicts. If they see him as any sort of threat, they will target him. And he will get smashed . Better have a good Plan B.

Edited by The Rocket
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Who are the fullback contenders for next year?

In no particular order just as they come into my mind 

Sam Tomkins 

Jack Walker

Jake Connor

Zac Hardaker

Herbie Farnworth?

Matty Ashton?

 

They are the only ones I can think of that potentially could do a good job

 

 

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On 15/08/2020 at 19:48, Scubby said:

He will be 32 by the World Cup but should still be England's No.1. Best full back by far and one of the first players on the team sheet.

I don't disagree, but if he was measured against all the NRL FB's what position do you think he would achieve in that list, of course presumably that is if you watch the NRL? 

Edit. Yours was one of the first posts in this subject which I answered with my question, As I got further into the thread I can see it had already been broached upon.

I think it is a fair question and readily springs to mind if we are comparing who is essentially our best player in that position with those that the NRL can offer. 

Edited by Harry Stottle

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On 15/08/2020 at 22:12, Whippet13 said:

Tomkins does not have the sheer physical attributes of some on that list but he is turning into a world class leader, his ability to read the game and organising what's in front of him is as good as anyone on that list and is still improving.

You have to take into account the standard of opposition in front of all those player's including Sam, the question is would Sam be as effective in the NRL, and could you imagine the masterclass any on that list would have had against that Wakefield team?

Off course you can only measure a player by what he has in front of him, but it has to be taken on perspective of the competition they perform in before statements such as "As good as anyone on that list" are made.

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6 minutes ago, Harry Stottle said:

You have to take into account the standard of opposition in front of all those player's including Sam, the question is would Sam be as effective in the NRL, and could you imagine the masterclass any on that list would have had against that Wakefield team?

Off course you can only measure a player by what he has in front of him, but it has to be taken on perspective of the competition they perform in before statements such as "As good as anyone on that list" are made.

As I said earlier in the threas, Ponga scored 17 tries in 2018 and 2019 combined.  Tomkins bagged 13 in his first season in the NRL.

If you an NRL full back to help run up a big score against Wakefield you would choose Tomkins over Ponga as he is proven to be more effective against NRL defences.

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2 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

As I said earlier in the threas, Ponga scored 17 tries in 2018 and 2019 combined.  Tomkins bagged 13 in his first season in the NRL.

If you an NRL full back to help run up a big score against Wakefield you would choose Tomkins over Ponga as he is proven to be more effective against NRL defences.

OK you believe that, I will differ in my opinion.

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Tomkins' NRL stint proved he was in the top half of fullbacks in the NRL comp. In his first year he was in the top 5 fullbacks for all the key attacking stats (along with mistakes, it must be said) before injuries hit. Since then he's slowed down a touch, but he's also cut down on the mistakes and improved his link play. As a ball runner he's probably short of a lot of NRL fullbacks these days, but he's also the best ball playing fullback in the game, and just about the only one with a good kicking game too. 

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3 minutes ago, Harry Stottle said:

OK you believe that, I will differ in my opinion.

Just looking at the facts Harry.

Sam Tomkins scored more tries in first first season in the NRL than Ponga has in any of his NRL seasons.

I would be keen to understand why you think Ponga would be more effective against Super League defences when Tomkins was more more effective against NRL defences?

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13 minutes ago, ghost crayfish said:

Tomkins' NRL stint proved he was in the top half of fullbacks in the NRL comp. In his first year he was in the top 5 fullbacks for all the key attacking stats (along with mistakes, it must be said) before injuries hit. Since then he's slowed down a touch, but he's also cut down on the mistakes and improved his link play. As a ball runner he's probably short of a lot of NRL fullbacks these days, but he's also the best ball playing fullback in the game, and just about the only one with a good kicking game too. 

In his first year, Tomkins made 13 errors in the season.  For context, Billy Slater also made 13 errors that year and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck made 12.

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1 minute ago, Dunbar said:

Just looking at the facts Harry.

Sam Tomkins scored more tries in first first season in the NRL than Ponga has in any of his NRL seasons.

I would be keen to understand why you think Ponga would be more effective against Super League defences when Tomkins was more more effective against NRL defences?

I know through many of your previous posts on all manner of RL topics you are 'big on stats' it appears to be your fall back reliance to putting your point across, statistics don't give the full picture, many times they are used to substansiate weak arguments.

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2 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

In his first year, Tomkins made 13 errors in the season.  For context, Billy Slater also made 13 errors that year and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck made 12.

Here we go again, so how many times did each handle the ball or miss a tackle or tied his left boot up before the right one!

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2 minutes ago, Harry Stottle said:

I know through many of your previous posts on all manner of RL topics you are 'big on stats' it appears to be your fall back reliance to putting your point across, statistics don't give the full picture, many times they are used to substansiate weak arguments.

If you choose to believe that Harry then that's fine.  However, here is another way of looking at it.

I am a big fan of Ponga, I think he is a quality player.  But in my opinion, so is Tomkins and on form I would say he is the match of Ponga.  You clearly think differently as you stated that Ponga would have run a 'masterclass' against Wakefield. 

Now, we have a difference of opinion.  So, what can we look at to see which of these opinions is more valid.  As a piece of evidence to back up my opnion, I pointed out that Sam Tomkins scored more tries in the NRL in his first season than Ponga has scored in any of his seasons to date.  You may consider that a 'stat' but I would have thought that try scoring is a pretty good indicator of attacking ability.  Please feel free to provide some evidence to back up your argument.  Otherwise we are left in a position with a difference of opinion where I have provided some evidence to support my argument and you haven't (I know where I would rather be).

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7 minutes ago, Harry Stottle said:

Here we go again, so how many times did each handle the ball or miss a tackle or tied his left boot up before the right one!

What is it about facts that bother you so much.  Errors can be measured.  And Tomkins made errors at about the same rate as two of the top full backs in the NRL that year.  What is wrong with saying that?

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On 15/08/2020 at 22:53, Whippet13 said:

The convicts have some amazing attacking full backs, I just don't think many (if any) have the level of all round skills and experience Tomkins has. For me, being a full back isn't just linking into or scoring an amazing try, it's also about how to read things, be vocal and organise the team structurally. Tomkins completely and absolutely ran the show today, I'm not sure how many current Australian fullbacks can do that.

Really ? Put forward an argument for Tomkins , fine . But the rest is pushing it . The NRL is totally loaded

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1 minute ago, Dunbar said:

What is it about facts that bother you so much.  Errors can be measured.  And Tomkins made errors at about the same rate as two of the top full backs in the NRL that year.  What is wrong with saying that?

If I went for a walk across a field the likelihood of being run over by a car is remote, if I went for a walk on a motorway well if goes without question.

I am not measuring like for like, and albeit stats are an indicator of the whole all games can be totally different with how proceedings bring about those numbers there are many other influences that dictate how those number's are arrived at.

Who was it who wrote we have Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics highlighting that unless all things are equal in everysense then the conclusions can have a whole different meaning.

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Just now, Harry Stottle said:

If I went for a walk across a field the likelihood of being run over by a car is remote, if I went for a walk on a motorway well if goes without question.

I am not measuring like for like, and albeit stats are an indicator of the whole all games can be totally different with how proceedings bring about those numbers there are many other influences that dictate how those number's are arrived at.

Who was it who wrote we have Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics highlighting that unless all things are equal in everysense then the conclusions can have a whole different meaning.

Look, you can type all you want but the NRL analysis shows us that Sam Tomkins made 13 errors in 24 games.  Billy Slater made 13 in 22  games and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck made 12 in 26 games. 

If you think this is because he wasn't involved as much as the other two then this is wrong as Tomkins handled the ball 946 times in the season while Billy Slater handled it 852 times (Sheck isn't in the top 50 so I don't know what his number was but it must be below the 50th player which was 687 times).

There is some kind of myth that Tomkins 2014 season was error ridden.  That simply isn't true and it doesn't matter how many times people say it, it will never be true.

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Look, let me state for the record that I don't think Sam Tomkins was great in the NRL.  I would classify his overall stint as disappointing.  But this was mainly based on the fact his 2015 season was injury disrupted and he definitely under performed when on the pitch that year (as said previously, the same injury disrupted his 2016 season with Wigan so was pretty serious). 

However, in his first year, he was good, often very good.  I remember him playing well for the Warriors and in quite a few games he was their stand out player (as he should be as a marquee buy).  The reason why I say disappointing is that after 2014 he could really have kicked on in 2015 and shone if it were not for the injury.

Was he the best NRL full back in 2014?  Of course not - that was Jarryd Hayne who was the Dally M player of the year and of course the likes of Slater and Tuivasa-Sheck were their usual top class selves.

What I am doing here is dispelling some myths... with some facts.

1. He struggled against NRL defences.

Fact - he beat more tackles than Billy Slater in 2014 and scored more tries in that season than Kayln Ponga or Tuivasa-Sheck have ever scored in a single NRL season.  Of course these are selective but that's the point, I am selecting them to prove a point.  If we selected other stats than Slater and Ponga would outperform Tomkins... again proving he was not the best and not the worst; but certainly not a flop in that year.

2. He made a lot of errors.

Fact - as above he handled the ball more than Slater and Sheck in the season and made proportionally fewer errors than these two.  Again, some NRL full backs would have made fewer errors and and some more but I am selecting some facts to show he was not this error ridden player than some people make out he was.

The reason why I get involved in these threads is because these myths build up over time and people just assume they are true without any evidence to support them.

I hope that is even handed enough for everyone.

Edited by Dunbar
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1 hour ago, Harry Stottle said:

I am not measuring like for like, and albeit stats are an indicator of the whole all games can be totally different with how proceedings bring about those numbers there are many other influences that dictate how those number's are arrived at.

As an analyst by trade, I agree with this. There are so many factors that can affect a result.  ‘Indicator’ is definitely the key word. 

The stats in RL are pretty basic (for good reason sometimes, it’s better to keep things simple and understandable for all involved). But, for example, can a positional error be properly counted? Players in weaker sides may be exposed to more potential errors. Are FBs in weaker sides who score more tries than FBs in top sides doing better? Possibly...or are they making the wrong decisions and scoring one try themselves in a game when three could’ve been scored by the team if they’d not be wholly focused on scoring themselves? The list is endless and an overall view needs to be taken, including non-measurables, which is where the coaches come in (and the media/fans have their say!).

The indicators seem to suggest that Tomkins was on a par with some of the top FBs in the NRL. If he’s viewed as ‘error-ridden’, some of these other genuine factors may be playing a role or possibly it’s something like a bias (conscious or unconscious) on the part of people within the game e.g. British backs aren’t very good, NZ Warriors are average so their players are average etc etc. 

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I think Tomkins is our best fullback by far. He no longer has the pace to go the length of the field, as it did in his youth, but he has many more attributes. Zak Hardaker comes in 2nd.

Beyond those two i don't think i'd be confident in any of the other fullbacks that have been mentioned.

For the last few seasons fullbacks in the NRL have been merging into the perfect combination of ball runner and ball player.


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35 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

1. He struggled against NRL defences.

2. He made a lot of errors.

I have not said any of those things in relation to Sam T in the NRL - look back - whaf I was saying was in answer to someone who suggested that Sam in his performances was the equal of any of those 10 or so NRL full backs, my take on it is you have to be playing in the same conditions to have an accurate measure, taking a snap shot of a 26 year old Sam in the NRL in comparison to how it is played today 5 season's on is not a good assessment.

Saying that, I still think that on his present form being early season and this weekend's return he is the best we can offer.

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Just now, Harry Stottle said:

I have not said any of those things in relation to Sam T in the NRL - look back - whaf I was saying was in answer to someone who suggested that Sam in his performances was the equal of any of those 10 or so NRL full backs, my take on it is you have to be playing in the same conditions to have an accurate measure, taking a snap shot of a 26 year old Sam in the NRL in comparison to how it is played today 5 season's on is not a good assessment.

Saying that, I still think that on his present form being early season and this weekend's return he is the best we can offer.

You did say "the question is would Sam be as effective in the NRL, and could you imagine the masterclass any on that list would have had against that Wakefield team?"

The clear inference being that an NRL full back would have been even more effective against Wakefield.  My point that Tomkins scored more tries in his first NRL season than Sheck or Ponga have ever scored in a single NRL season is surely relevant in that discussion?

Anyway, I am happy to close this one off if you are.  I agree Tomkins is the best we have.  He is not at the very top of the best fullbacks in the world but I think he is higher than most put him.

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5 hours ago, Harry Stottle said:

I know through many of your previous posts on all manner of RL topics you are 'big on stats' it appears to be your fall back reliance to putting your point across, statistics don't give the full picture, many times they are used to substansiate weak arguments.

Yeah, stop using facts, it only confuses us!

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