HawkMan Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Here goes, my predictions for rest of tournament, probably mostly wrong. Spain bt Switzerland Italy bt Belgium Denmark bt Czech England bt Ukraine Semi Finals Spain bt Italy England bt Denmark FINAL SPAIN bt England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 hour ago, HawkMan said: Here goes, my predictions for rest of tournament, probably mostly wrong. Spain bt Switzerland Italy bt Belgium Denmark bt Czech England bt Ukraine Semi Finals Spain bt Italy England bt Denmark FINAL SPAIN bt England For me... Spain, 80% chance in QF, 50% in semi, 60% in final. Overall, 24% chance Swiss, 20%, 33% chance, 33% chance, Overall, just of 2% Italy, 50%, 50%, and then 60%, Overall 18% Belgium, 50%, 50%, and then 60%, Overall 18% Denmark, 50%, 33%, and then 40%, Overall 7% Czech, 50%, 33%, and then 40%, Overall 7% Ukraine 33%, 33%, and 40%, Overall 4% England 66%, 66%, and 40%, Overall 20% So, Spain as favourites (they are ahead at half time and are possibly the best team). England second, as easy run in potentially and limited travel. "You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Rhino Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 I love the drama of a penalty shoot-out... ...when it doesn't involve England or Swindon Town 2014 Challenged Cup Winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeordieSaint Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wiltshire Rhino said: I love the drama of a penalty shoot-out... ...when it doesn't involve England or Swindon Town Quality of the penalties were completely on either side of the spectrum; awful or top quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Futtocks Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, GeordieSaint said: Quality of the penalties were completely on either side of the spectrum; awful or top quality. It was like watching England v England. That Swiss goalie has certainly boosted his market price. Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted. Ralph Waldo Emerson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob8 said: For me... Spain, 80% chance in QF, 50% in semi, 60% in final. Overall, 24% chance Swiss, 20%, 33% chance, 33% chance, Overall, just of 2% Italy, 50%, 50%, and then 60%, Overall 18% Belgium, 50%, 50%, and then 60%, Overall 18% Denmark, 50%, 33%, and then 40%, Overall 7% Czech, 50%, 33%, and then 40%, Overall 7% Ukraine 33%, 33%, and 40%, Overall 4% England 66%, 66%, and 40%, Overall 20% So, Spain as favourites (they are ahead at half time and are possibly the best team). England second, as easy run in potentially and limited travel. Spain, 100% chance in QF, 50% in semi, 60% in final. Overall, 26% chance Swiss, 0% Overall 0% Italy, 50%, 50%, and then 60%, Overall 18% Belgium, 50%, 50%, and then 60%, Overall 18% Denmark, 50%, 33%, and then 40%, Overall 7% Czech, 50%, 33%, and then 40%, Overall 7% Ukraine 33%, 33%, and 40%, Overall 4% England 66%, 66%, and 40%, Overall 20% Update! "You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonM Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, GeordieSaint said: Quality of the penalties were completely on either side of the spectrum; awful or top quality. As usual, you get a very good feel for who is going to miss by the look on their face beforehand. If they look like they'd rather be anywhere else, they're not going to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidM Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bob8 said: Spain, 100% chance in QF, 50% in semi, 60% in final. Overall, 26% chance Swiss, 0% Overall 0% Italy, 50%, 50%, and then 60%, Overall 18% Belgium, 50%, 50%, and then 60%, Overall 18% Denmark, 50%, 33%, and then 40%, Overall 7% Czech, 50%, 33%, and then 40%, Overall 7% Ukraine 33%, 33%, and 40%, Overall 4% England 66%, 66%, and 40%, Overall 20% Update! I have a 26.25 % chance of taking all that in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Decimus Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 27 minutes ago, Bob8 said: Spain, 100% chance in QF, 50% in semi, 60% in final. Overall, 26% chance Swiss, 0% Overall 0% Italy, 50%, 50%, and then 60%, Overall 18% Belgium, 50%, 50%, and then 60%, Overall 18% Denmark, 50%, 33%, and then 40%, Overall 7% Czech, 50%, 33%, and then 40%, Overall 7% Ukraine 33%, 33%, and 40%, Overall 4% England 66%, 66%, and 40%, Overall 20% Update! Looking at this week's games through a different metric of the bookies, here are their odds converted into probabilities. The first thing you'll notice is that it doesn't add up to 100%, which I'm sure is due to profit margins. Looking at the England amounts, I'm sure it's more than a bit of a reaction to English optimism. The idea that we are more likely to win than Spain despite having an extra game to get through seems unlikely. Spain 100% Overall 31% Belgium QF 47% Overall 13% Italy QF 63% Overall 20% Denmark QF 42% Overall 9% Czech QF 64% Overall 4% Ukraine QF 22% Overall 2% England QF 83% Overall 33% A Widnesian in Ireland blog What is the best system for Super League? An honest appraisal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Maximus Decimus said: Looking at this week's games through a different metric of the bookies, here are their odds converted into probabilities. The first thing you'll notice is that it doesn't add up to 100%, which I'm sure is due to profit margins. Looking at the England amounts, I'm sure it's more than a bit of a reaction to English optimism. The idea that we are more likely to win than Spain despite having an extra game to get through seems unlikely. Spain 100% Overall 31% Belgium QF 47% Overall 13% Italy QF 63% Overall 20% Denmark QF 42% Overall 9% Czech QF 64% Overall 4% Ukraine QF 22% Overall 2% England QF 83% Overall 33% I would slightly favour Denmark over Czech, but not by much so I called it 50:50, which accounts for that difference. Smiliar with Italy over Belgium, with their injuries, but I was stubborn to a simple system. Otherwise, it is English optimish (that also explains the lower rating for Ukraine). It actually aligns pretty closely. I think being fresh (winning within 90 minutes and not having to fly from Baku) will be as significant as quality. "You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Decimus Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Bob8 said: I would slightly favour Denmark over Czech, but not by much so I called it 50:50, which accounts for that difference. Smiliar with Italy over Belgium, with their injuries, but I was stubborn to a simple system. Otherwise, it is English optimish (that also explains the lower rating for Ukraine). It actually aligns pretty closely. I think being fresh (winning within 90 minutes and not having to fly from Baku) will be as significant as quality. I think I've got Czech and Denmark mixed up tbh! A Widnesian in Ireland blog What is the best system for Super League? An honest appraisal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidM Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Not something you can always say but i do like watching this Italy side . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Futtocks Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, DavidM said: Not something you can always say but i do like watching this Italy side . I find it slightly distressing how many of them become mortally wounded, and so often. Thankfully, their powers of recovery are nothing short of miraculous. Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted. Ralph Waldo Emerson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidM Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Futtocks said: I find it slightly distressing how many of them become mortally wounded, and so often. Thankfully, their powers of recovery are nothing short of miraculous. Did you notice how the goal had such a restorative effect on the guy in agony on the floor ? He jumped up to join the celebrations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Futtocks Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, DavidM said: Did you notice how the goal had such a restorative effect on the guy in agony on the floor ? He jumped up to join the celebrations Hallelujah, he is cured! By which I mean he's a massive ham. Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted. Ralph Waldo Emerson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidM Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Ref often seems to be working on the if you fall down it must be a foul principle , with some unrewarded diving in berween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Decimus Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, DavidM said: Ref often seems to be working on the if you fall down it must be a foul principle , with some unrewarded diving in berween I'll say it once and I'll say it again. Stop The Clock. A Widnesian in Ireland blog What is the best system for Super League? An honest appraisal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonM Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 I think Italy & England have been the best sides in the tournament thus far. Not an easy team to like though, Italy, the continual rolling about on the pitch has a very old school feel about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Rhino Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 11 hours ago, Futtocks said: I find it slightly distressing how many of them become mortally wounded, and so often. Thankfully, their powers of recovery are nothing short of miraculous. He has risen from the dead! 2014 Challenged Cup Winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gingerjon Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 10 hours ago, JonM said: I think Italy & England have been the best sides in the tournament thus far. Not an easy team to like though, Italy, the continual rolling about on the pitch has a very old school feel about it. It's been the case for as long as I've been watching football that if you don't fall over you don't get the decision. It is what it is. Italy look the most assured team left. I'm not sure I can see anyone else beating them if they turn up and play to their potential each game. Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleep1673 Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Just out of curiosity, will the BBC show as much screen time, and juggle programme times around as they have done for Euro2020, & Wombldon, for the Rugby League World Cup? Or will matches be suddenly switched to iPlayer, or BBC4 to accommodate Eastenders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawkMan Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 Deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawkMan Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Bleep1673 said: Just out of curiosity, will the BBC show as much screen time, and juggle programme times around as they have done for Euro2020, & Wombldon, for the Rugby League World Cup? Or will matches be suddenly switched to iPlayer, or BBC4 to accommodate Eastenders? England matches I expect on BBC1 whatever time it's on, others on BB2, 4 or red button. Eg. Tonga vs PNG ko 19.30 Tuesday October 26th I wouldn't think will be on 1 . It looks an interesting game but as it doesn't have Eng, Aus or NZ I expect BBC blockheads to shunt this to RB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meast Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 13 hours ago, DavidM said: Not something you can always say but i do like watching this Italy side . I was until last night, then the reason I stopped watching football came back, the playacting and histrionics were awful, such a shame as they were becoming likeable. Huddersfield Giants Supporters Association Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meast Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Wiltshire Rhino said: He has risen from the dead! If UEFA have any balls, he should be retrospectively banned for the remainder of the tournament for that, disgraceful! Huddersfield Giants Supporters Association Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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