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NRL 2021 - The Run To The Finals


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Warriors, St George and Wests now gone. It's up to Sharks, Titans and Canberra to fight over 8th spot. Next week Sharks (currently -24 points diff)  play Storm, Raiders (-73) play Chooks and Titans (-47) play Warriors.

 

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If Cronulla beat the Storm:

- they go to 24 points and the Tights are gone

- if the Raiders lose the Sharks finish 8th

- if the Raiders beat the Roosters by less than 50pts + the Sharks' winning margin over the Storm, the Raiders are gone

 

If Cronulla lose to the Storm:

- they stay on 22 points AND

- they need the Raiders to lose AND

- they need the Tights to lose OR

- Titans win by less than 23pts minus the Storm's winning margin over the Fish.

 

If Raiders beat the Chooks:

- they need Cronulla to lose

- Titans result would be irrelevant since Green Machine would be on 24 points and Titans would only go to 22 with a win

 

If Raiders lose to the Chooks:

- they need Cronulla and Titans to lose

- they need Cronulla to lose by 50pts more than the Raiders' losing margin

- if Cronulla lose but Titans win Canberra are gone

 

If Titans beat the Warriors:

- they need Cronulla and Canberra to lose AND

- they need the Sharks losing margin + Titans' winning margin to total 24 or more.

 

If Titans lose to Warriors:

- it's all over, goodbye, thanks for coming, see you next year.

 

 

Predictions:

- Storm to beat Sharks

- Roosters to beat Canberra

- Titans to beat Warriors and beat them with a big enough margin to grab 8th spot. Titans don't play until after the other two results are known so they will know exactly how many points they need. They may be lucky and the Storm might beat the Sharks by 20 - they beat the Sharks by 26 earlier this year and Munster missed 5 goal kicks.

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4 hours ago, Farmduck said:

If Cronulla beat the Storm:

- they go to 24 points and the Tights are gone

- if the Raiders lose the Sharks finish 8th

- if the Raiders beat the Roosters by less than 50pts + the Sharks' winning margin over the Storm, the Raiders are gone

 

If Cronulla lose to the Storm:

- they stay on 22 points AND

- they need the Raiders to lose AND

- they need the Tights to lose OR

- Titans win by less than 23pts minus the Storm's winning margin over the Fish.

 

If Raiders beat the Chooks:

- they need Cronulla to lose

- Titans result would be irrelevant since Green Machine would be on 24 points and Titans would only go to 22 with a win

 

If Raiders lose to the Chooks:

- they need Cronulla and Titans to lose

- they need Cronulla to lose by 50pts more than the Raiders' losing margin

- if Cronulla lose but Titans win Canberra are gone

 

If Titans beat the Warriors:

- they need Cronulla and Canberra to lose AND

- they need the Sharks losing margin + Titans' winning margin to total 24 or more.

 

If Titans lose to Warriors:

- it's all over, goodbye, thanks for coming, see you next year.

 

 

Predictions:

- Storm to beat Sharks

- Roosters to beat Canberra

- Titans to beat Warriors and beat them with a big enough margin to grab 8th spot. Titans don't play until after the other two results are known so they will know exactly how many points they need. They may be lucky and the Storm might beat the Sharks by 20 - they beat the Sharks by 26 earlier this year and Munster missed 5 goal kicks.

Storm are rumoured to be resting players before finals and could lose a couple to bans. That may be just what the Sharks need to surprise them. I agree that the Raiders are unlikely to do it against the Roosters. Titans / Warriors is anyone's guess, but I think it is wrong that they get the advantage of playing last.

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2 hours ago, Spotty Herbert said:

I agree that the Raiders are unlikely to do it against the Roosters.

I`m a little surprised that your so adamant about the Raiders/Roosters. I would have thought if there was one team who might be up for a big game this weekend to sneak into the finals it would be the Raiders.

The Roosters running on empty may just have given up on this year as well I thought, not that you could blame them.

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18 hours ago, The Rocket said:

I`m a little surprised that your so adamant about the Raiders/Roosters. I would have thought if there was one team who might be up for a big game this weekend to sneak into the finals it would be the Raiders.

The Roosters running on empty may just have given up on this year as well I thought, not that you could blame them.

I just don't think the Raiders have it in them this year. I may be wrong, but the Roosters have been fantastic despite all the injuries and I figure they still have a bit left in the tank. I hope so, anyway.

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6 hours ago, Spotty Herbert said:

I just don't think the Raiders have it in them this year. I may be wrong, but the Roosters have been fantastic despite all the injuries and I figure they still have a bit left in the tank. I hope so, anyway.

Yeah there`s no questioning the Roosters, they`re like the Black Knight from Monty Python, " t`is but a scratch", but I think they`re done this year.

I like the Raiders side as well, they`ve got class right across the park and I think Matt Frawley is an under-rated half back because that`s where they`ve been lacking once Williams left, especially if Wighton isn`t pulling his weight. Which to be fair he does seem to be having a go lately.

Anyway there`s a few good match-ups this weekend and this is one of them, it`ll be interesting to see how it all goes.

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19 hours ago, The Rocket said:

Yeah there`s no questioning the Roosters, they`re like the Black Knight from Monty Python, " t`is but a scratch", but I think they`re done this year.

I like the Raiders side as well, they`ve got class right across the park and I think Matt Frawley is an under-rated half back because that`s where they`ve been lacking once Williams left, especially if Wighton isn`t pulling his weight. Which to be fair he does seem to be having a go lately.

Anyway there`s a few good match-ups this weekend and this is one of them, it`ll be interesting to see how it all goes.

My only issue with your thoughts are that Matt Frawley could be classed as underrated. When he played over here I thought he was about League 1 standard and I haven't seen anything since he returned to Oz to change my mind - although, to be fair I haven't seen the Raiders last couple of games in full. 

Do we think the Panthers could hit 100 against such a below strength Eels side? Titans / Warriors might be the best of all match ups and could decide the last of the eight who carry on into next week (as Farmduck suggested in an earlier post).

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On 01/09/2021 at 05:06, Spotty Herbert said:

My only issue with your thoughts are that Matt Frawley could be classed as underrated. When he played over here I thought he was about League 1 standard and I haven't seen anything since he returned to Oz to change my mind - although, to be fair I haven't seen the Raiders last couple of games in full. 

I didn`t even know he existed until I saw him a couple of months ago and I thought he went o.k. Look I have to admit I have a soft spot for these old half backs that stick around for years, often lose their pace and have to rely on what`s between their ears, Clune at Saint George is another one, anyway hopefully I`ll get a closer look at him tonight and be able to make a better informed judgement. But I`ll be cheering him on anyway.

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Update after the Chooks beat the Raiders:

 

Raiders need:

- Titans to lose by any margin AND

- Storm to beat Cronulla by 80+

 

Roosters move to 4th temporarily until:

- Manly beat Cows by any margin which means Chooks finish 5th

- Parra fielding understrength team against Penrith unlikely to win and would finish 6th.

 

Sharks need:

- Warriors win over Titans by any margin OR

- Titans win with winning margin less than Sharks losing margin against Storm and both margins total less than 24 points OR

- Sharks need to beat Melbourne.

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5 hours ago, The Rocket said:

I didn`t even know he existed until I saw him a couple of months ago and I thought he went o.k. Look I have to admit I have a soft spot for these old half backs that stick around for years, often lose their pace and have to rely on what`s between their ears, Clune at Saint George is another one, anyway hopefully I`ll get a closer look at him tonight and be able to make a better informed judgement. But I`ll be cheering him on anyway.

Sutton (Gerard) made sure he didn't upset Trent, but that game summed up the Raiders season for me : promising moments, but far too many errors and questionable use of his resources by Ricky. Maybe he has slowed down too much this year and lost some of what was between his ears. Or is it elsewhere in the Raiders structure that the issues exist?

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On 30/08/2021 at 08:19, The Rocket said:

I`m a little surprised that your so adamant about the Raiders/Roosters. I would have thought if there was one team who might be up for a big game this weekend to sneak into the finals it would be the Raiders.

The Roosters running on empty may just have given up on this year as well I thought, not that you could blame them.

🥴.

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LIKELY SCHEDULE FINALS WEEK 1

Game 1

Friday September 10: Melbourne Storm (1) vs Manly Sea Eagles (4) at 7.00pm at Sunshine Coast Stadium

Game 2

Saturday September 11: Sydney Roosters (5) vs Cronulla Sharks or Gold Coast Titans (8) at 4.30pm at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

 

Game 3

Saturday September 11: Penrith Panthers (2) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (3) at 7.30pm at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

Game 4

Sunday September 12: Parramatta Eels (6) vs Newcastle Knights (7) at 3.00pm at Browne Park, Rockhampton

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