Jump to content

Penrith V Melbourne V Super League


Recommended Posts

21 hours ago, Mr Frisky said:

Saying that I don't think either Cats or Saints (or KR or Leeds) would beat the NRL GF winner but I would love for Cats to win the GF and play the NRL champs in Barcelona in next seasons WCC game infront of a big crowd.

It would be like most of the World Club Challenge games a showpiece at the beginning of the season, I would love to see the game between both Champion teams when the season is in full flight with player's match fit both physically and mentally to get a true reflection of the two comps, played in somewhere accessible like Dubai instead of one team having to commit to do all the travelling.

The nearest we have come to it was the '97 Full Programme of all the British and Australian SL clubs played over a 4 month period June to Oct when both Leagues were well into their seasons.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


22 hours ago, Harry Stottle said:

It would be like most of the World Club Challenge games a showpiece at the beginning of the season, I would love to see the game between both Champion teams when the season is in full flight with player's match fit both physically and mentally to get a true reflection of the two comps, played in somewhere accessible like Dubai instead of one team having to commit to do all the travelling.

The nearest we have come to it was the '97 Full Programme of all the British and Australian SL clubs played over a 4 month period June to Oct when both Leagues were well into their seasons.

Isn't rugby league illegal in Dubai?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 25/09/2021 at 17:16, unapologetic pedant said:

I don`t like too much emphasis on handling error counts. Creative teams who use the ball will likely make more errors. Five dummy-half runs in every set for eighty minutes might mean a zero handling error count, but it won`t win a game and we shouldn`t want it too.

Kicking out on the full is another matter. Particularly nowadays when kick pressure is often negligible.

You beat me to it. A few errors is a price worth paying to see confident players trying to be creative. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, fighting irish said:

You beat me to it. A few errors is a price worth paying to see confident players trying to be creative. 

I was watching the 1986 Kangaroo 3rd test the other day on YouTube.  A game that sticks in my memory as a superb occasion and a chance to watch the Kangaroo greats score some excellent tries (and Great Britain bagged a good one!).

But when you watch the whole match back it is incredible how often both sides dropped the ball.

  • Like 2

"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I fear that this process-driven attitude has become the norm for the game here, and errors are seen as the worst thing we can get in the sport. This has been happening for years now, every post-game interview has focused on process and errors and that is now in the fans' mentality - almost to the point of obsession. We've seen it at many clubs now, safe hands will get in the team over players who may try more but make more errors. 

For me, this is the biggest challenge the on-field game faces. Some of the clubs' coaching choices has had a big impact on the game over here. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, fighting irish said:

You beat me to it. A few errors is a price worth paying to see confident players trying to be creative. 

 

3 hours ago, Dunbar said:

I was watching the 1986 Kangaroo 3rd test the other day on YouTube.  A game that sticks in my memory as a superb occasion and a chance to watch the Kangaroo greats score some excellent tries (and Great Britain bagged a good one!).

But when you watch the whole match back it is incredible how often both sides dropped the ball.

It`s official.

This year, the Bulldogs, came last, yet had the highest completion rate in the NRL.

The 2019 Roosters won the premiership, yet amassed a whopping 311 errors through the season.

The 2021 Bulldogs did little with the ball, opting for conservative play, whereas the 2019 Roosters embraced risk.

The better teams play more expansively, passing the ball more often, leading to more errors and lower completion rates.

Haidar reached this conclusion after being tasked by Hasler to feed multiple statistics into a computer, such as metres gained, line breaks, tackles made, penalties, and isolate the most significant factor in a win.

Haidar found that in the period between 2017 and 2021, across the NRL, the correlation between “possessions” – the number of times the ball is received in hand- and win percentage was 0.76, a close relationship.

Yet over the same period, the correlation between the standard “completion rate” and win percentage, was a negative 0.27, an inverse relationship.

That is, teams with higher completion rates tend to lose more often, while those who use the ball, win.

So, for a man who obsesses about small things, the fifth “s” in possessions is very important.

According to Haidar, “possessions” is the amount of ball receipts, whereas “possession” measures total time with the ball.

A small but significant difference.

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Harry Stottle said:

I did say somewhere accessible like Dubai Irish, basically not being dependant on one team having to do the whole distance. But yeah I believe it is after that guy was put in prison a couple if years ago for wanting to organise RL there.

Whats your grandsons view on this?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, The Rocket said:

 

It`s official.

This year, the Bulldogs, came last, yet had the highest completion rate in the NRL.

The 2019 Roosters won the premiership, yet amassed a whopping 311 errors through the season.

The 2021 Bulldogs did little with the ball, opting for conservative play, whereas the 2019 Roosters embraced risk.

The better teams play more expansively, passing the ball more often, leading to more errors and lower completion rates.

Haidar reached this conclusion after being tasked by Hasler to feed multiple statistics into a computer, such as metres gained, line breaks, tackles made, penalties, and isolate the most significant factor in a win.

Haidar found that in the period between 2017 and 2021, across the NRL, the correlation between “possessions” – the number of times the ball is received in hand- and win percentage was 0.76, a close relationship.

Yet over the same period, the correlation between the standard “completion rate” and win percentage, was a negative 0.27, an inverse relationship.

That is, teams with higher completion rates tend to lose more often, while those who use the ball, win.

So, for a man who obsesses about small things, the fifth “s” in possessions is very important.

According to Haidar, “possessions” is the amount of ball receipts, whereas “possession” measures total time with the ball.

A small but significant difference.

 

Do you have link to the source for this as I would very much like to see the full report.

"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

Do you have link to the source for this as I would very much like to see the full report.

Not sure there`s a whole lot more in there about that topic, I did like Master`s remark though about young blokes contacting him wanting to learn more about the game.

NRL 2021: Manly Sea Eagles’ Des Hasler on cusp of grand final glory (smh.com.au)

Late edit: there`s a post in the comments section by ` Jessie ` who makes a point about tries scored by overlaps this year with the wingers being untouched, had noticed the same thing myself, had noticed that in the last few weeks that it wasn`t occurring as much as teams were finally getting their inside defenders to slide out better, one consequence though is that we seem to be seeing attacking teams having more problems with block runners and obstruction infringements though, the wheel turns.

 

Edited by The Rocket
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, The Rocket said:

Not sure there`s a whole lot more in there about that topic, I did like Master`s remark though about young blokes contacting him wanting to learn more about the game.

NRL 2021: Manly Sea Eagles’ Des Hasler on cusp of grand final glory (smh.com.au)

Late edit: there`s a post in the comments section by ` Jessie ` who makes a point about tries scored by overlaps this year with the wingers being untouched, had noticed the same thing myself, had noticed that in the last few weeks that it wasn`t occurring as much as teams were finally getting their inside defenders to slide out better, one consequence though is that we seem to be seeing attacking teams having more problems with block runners and obstruction infringements though, the wheel turns.

 

Thanks for that, I have just read the full article.

I would be very interested in the full analysis and the correlation (for example) between meters gained and winning probability.

However, back to the topic in hand.

The difference between possession and possessions is an interesting one.  As winning correlates closer with the latter (how many times you gain possession) rather than how much time you hold possession, the clear implication is that attacking with new possession is a key factor.  I think it is pretty clear that attacking with new possession against an unstructured defense is one of the best opportunities in the game.  Whether that be from a turnover, a poor kick or a charge down etc.  Or even against a shortened line at a scrum.

It does beg the question though why the authorities seem intent on introducing more structured changes of possession with the play the ball after the ball goes out of play or the clear mandate to the ref's to slow down the play to a 'controlled restart' at 20 metre taps or tap penalties.  Surely the game is better when it is less predictable.

  • Like 2

"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

Thanks for that, I have just read the full article.

I would be very interested in the full analysis and the correlation (for example) between meters gained and winning probability.

However, back to the topic in hand.

The difference between possession and possessions is an interesting one.  As winning correlates closer with the latter (how many times you gain possession) rather than how much time you hold possession, the clear implication is that attacking with new possession is a key factor.  I think it is pretty clear that attacking with new possession against an unstructured defense is one of the best opportunities in the game.  Whether that be from a turnover, a poor kick or a charge down etc.  Or even against a shortened line at a scrum.

It does beg the question though why the authorities seem intent on introducing more structured changes of possession with the play the ball after the ball goes out of play or the clear mandate to the ref's to slow down the play to a 'controlled restart' at 20 metre taps or tap penalties.  Surely the game is better when it is less predictable.

The free play had developed into a rather nice rule in SL. So they scrapped it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Dunbar said:

The difference between possession and possessions is an interesting one.  As winning correlates closer with the latter (how many times you gain possession) rather than how much time you hold possession

I think I must have read this differently. I thought it meant that the difference was basically in the number of passes you throw, i.e possessions, for example, you might lose the ball on the fourth tackle, but for those four tackles the ball was passed from player to player more, registering  possessions. Like the Roosters must have in 2019 with their 300 errors, a proportion of those being dropped ball. Unlike Canterbury this year, held the ball for more tackles i.e. more possession,  threw less passes, i.e. less possession `s`. If you get my drift.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, The Rocket said:

I think I must have read this differently. I thought it meant that the difference was basically in the number of passes you throw, i.e possessions, for example, you might lose the ball on the fourth tackle, but for those four tackles the ball was passed from player to player more, registering  possessions. Like the Roosters must have in 2019 with their 300 errors, a proportion of those being dropped ball. Unlike Canterbury this year, held the ball for more tackles i.e. more possession,  threw less passes, i.e. less possession `s`. If you get my drift.

No, I think you are right and I was wrong. It looks like it is passes recieved.

I am OK to stick with my point just for the wrong reasons!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, The Rocket said:

I think I must have read this differently. I thought it meant that the difference was basically in the number of passes you throw, i.e possessions, for example, you might lose the ball on the fourth tackle, but for those four tackles the ball was passed from player to player more, registering  possessions. Like the Roosters must have in 2019 with their 300 errors, a proportion of those being dropped ball. Unlike Canterbury this year, held the ball for more tackles i.e. more possession,  threw less passes, i.e. less possession `s`. If you get my drift.

Yes Rocket, that's what I understood you to mean.

Possessions being the number of times a team member receives a pass.

Dunbar's interpretation is somewhat different.

I do agree however, (and I've always coached it) that sudden unexpected possession is more often than not, a huge opportunity to make progress and score, because the team losing possession isn't lined up in defensive formation.

In order to capitalise though, you need to know that and be confident enough to get the ball to where the spaces are (pass it about.) 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, fighting irish said:

Dunbar's interpretation is somewhat different.

 

That's a very polite way of saying wrong.

  • Haha 3

"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So here is the table for the average receipts (possessions) per team in the NRL.

https://www.nrl.com/stats/teams/?competition=111&season=2021&stat=1000028

The Panthers are top but the other 3 semi-finalists are 5th, 6th and 8th while the Sharks and Knights are in the top 4.

I am not sure that there is a really clear correlation between this and winning matches... some, but not conclusive.

  • Thanks 1

"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 25/09/2021 at 17:23, unapologetic pedant said:

I agree with all that.

In tennis they make a distinction between forced and unforced errors. We should try to do the same in RL.

Precisely. And even the “unforced” errors in tennis, quite often they are forced as the player makes an uncharacteristic error (hitting it into the net for instance) as a higher quality opponent has ramped up the pressure by continually hitting the ball back into court. Against a weaker opponent the ball isn’t returned, so there’s no error of any type.

Essentially what we saw in the Penrith game was the best vs the best, and being up against the best plays are an awful lot harder. Melbourne are normally a lot cooler in their decision making, but they don’t face Penrith every week.

 

Edited by DC77
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Dave T said:

I fear that this process-driven attitude has become the norm for the game here, and errors are seen as the worst thing we can get in the sport. This has been happening for years now, every post-game interview has focused on process and errors and that is now in the fans' mentality - almost to the point of obsession. We've seen it at many clubs now, safe hands will get in the team over players who may try more but make more errors. 

For me, this is the biggest challenge the on-field game faces. Some of the clubs' coaching choices has had a big impact on the game over here. 

Ironically you see this less with the real successful teams. It often seems like a very reductionist approach from coaches who don't have the courage or the competency to coach effective attacking footy, and therefore instead see the game solely as an energy battle. 

2 hours ago, Dunbar said:

Do you have link to the source for this as I would very much like to see the full report.

 

1 hour ago, Dunbar said:

Thanks for that, I have just read the full article.

I would be very interested in the full analysis and the correlation (for example) between meters gained and winning probability.

I've got my own analysis on a lot of this stuff - will post a thread tonight if I remember.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

So here is the table for the average receipts (possessions) per team in the NRL.

https://www.nrl.com/stats/teams/?competition=111&season=2021&stat=1000028

The Panthers are top but the other 3 semi-finalists are 5th, 6th and 8th while the Sharks and Knights are in the top 4.

I am not sure that there is a really clear correlation between this and winning matches... some, but not conclusive.

Interesting though when you look at ` total receipts ` as opposed to ` average receipts ` the correlation with winning is much stronger. 

It would seem that the Sharks and Knights are certainly throwing the ball around, something O`Brien would have learnt the benefits of from Robinson, but also that they are not very good at converting it into points. This is reflected in their `points for` this year which is a fairway off the pace from the top teams.

It would seem though that the Knights and Sharks have been trying to throw the ball around, albeit unsuccessfully, and have snuck into that 3rd and 4th `average receipts` position and have mucked up what is otherwise quite a strong correlation between passing and winning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, The Rocket said:

Interesting though when you look at ` total receipts ` as opposed to ` average receipts ` the correlation with winning is much stronger. 

It would seem though that the Knights and Sharks have been trying to throw the ball around, albeit unsuccessfully, and have snuck into that 3rd and 4th `average receipts` position and have mucked up what is otherwise quite a strong correlation between passing and winning.

That's a reflection of the fact that the teams that win play more games. If finishing in the top 8 means you enter the playoffs, and entering the playoffs means another 1-3 games to accumulate receipts, there's always going to be a much stronger correlation - unfortunately this is meaningless as far as value of information goes.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Saint 1 said:

That's a reflection of the fact that the teams that win play more games. If finishing in the top 8 means you enter the playoffs, and entering the playoffs means another 1-3 games to accumulate receipts, there's always going to be a much stronger correlation - unfortunately this is meaningless as far as value of information goes.

Good point, but it would seem that the ability to convert passes into points is paramount, both those teams had pretty average defensive records as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Dave T said:

I fear that this process-driven attitude has become the norm for the game here, and errors are seen as the worst thing we can get in the sport. This has been happening for years now, every post-game interview has focused on process and errors and that is now in the fans' mentality - almost to the point of obsession. We've seen it at many clubs now, safe hands will get in the team over players who may try more but make more errors. 

For me, this is the biggest challenge the on-field game faces. Some of the clubs' coaching choices has had a big impact on the game over here. 

Just watched Kears interview with Mick Gledhill and when asked how Bradford could have won v Batley, Kear said by going down the middle more.  Just keep battering and battering.  The Batley coach knew that mindset and took the Bulls away from it.  

I think you’ll find, the better coaches don’t always criticise errors if the pass, gap or chance is there but ‘unforced errors’ are another thing.  ‘Errors’ really are a poor metric without context.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...