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Eurovision, Monte-Carlo analysis, and the detection of tactical voting | by Gareth Walker | Towards Data Science

Cyprus and Greece have each other’s back in the late 1990s

The Balkans get strategic: an opening up of voter eligibility increases volume of strategic alliances, where regional solidarity encourages the growth of a new voting block in Eastern Europe.

As do the infamous Scandinavian / Northern voting block

The web of alliances gets more complex as the years go by, but is still defined by centers in Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, and the Balkans

And the U.K. wonders why it never wins any more…

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10 hours ago, JohnM said:

Eurovision, Monte-Carlo analysis, and the detection of tactical voting | by Gareth Walker | Towards Data Science

Cyprus and Greece have each other’s back in the late 1990s

The Balkans get strategic: an opening up of voter eligibility increases volume of strategic alliances, where regional solidarity encourages the growth of a new voting block in Eastern Europe.

As do the infamous Scandinavian / Northern voting block

The web of alliances gets more complex as the years go by, but is still defined by centers in Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, and the Balkans

And the U.K. wonders why it never wins any more…

Greece votes for Cyprus and Cyprus for Greece because, and this is where it gets harder for bearded wonders like the hatstand in your funny link, their shared culture and history means they really, really, really like each other's songs.

Replace 'strategic alliance' (a hilariously OTT and sinister phrase) with 'shared culture' and you explain, very easily, simply and honestly, most of the votes that cause eye brow arching.

But most times it's even simpler: people vote for their favourite song. Last ten winners: Italy, Netherlands, Israel, Portugal, Ukraine, Sweden, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Germany ...

Ten before that: Norway, Russia, Serbia, Finland, Greece, Ukraine, Turkey, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark

You'll have to help me out about all these strategic alliances because it looks pretty consistently inconsistent to me.

And the reason Britain doesn't win can be easily explained by asking people who believe that it's all thanks to dastardly foreigners to, without checking, detail each of the UK's last five entries, their performances on the night and their promotion in Europe beforehand.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Anyway, I trust all you ESC fans will enjoy this festival of high-quality popular music performed by Europe's best performers. Thanks to the completely independent,  unbiased non-geographic non- political voting, many previous winners have launched their careers in the comp., dominating the charts and gaining enduring global musical success. Examples in previous years of unforgettable songs and performers include ..er...er...thingy, what's her name, hang on a minute...er...er....😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀

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2 hours ago, JohnM said:

Anyway, I trust all you ESC fans will enjoy this festival of high-quality popular music performed by Europe's best performers. Thanks to the completely independent,  unbiased non-geographic non- political voting, many previous winners have launched their careers in the comp., dominating the charts and gaining enduring global musical success. Examples in previous years of unforgettable songs and performers include ..er...er...thingy, what's her name, hang on a minute...er...er....😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀

Mate, you’re the one taking time out of your productive life to performatively dislike a popular TV programme on a sub forum of a rugby league message board.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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1 hour ago, gingerjon said:

Mate, you’re the one taking time out of your productive life to performatively dislike a popular TV programme on a sub forum of a rugby league message board.

It's mildly amusing though. So I'll give him a break for making me chuckle on a lovely day in the garden with a dram

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4 hours ago, JohnM said:

Anyway, I trust all you ESC fans will enjoy this festival of high-quality popular music performed by Europe's best performers. Thanks to the completely independent,  unbiased non-geographic non- political voting, many previous winners have launched their careers in the comp., dominating the charts and gaining enduring global musical success. Examples in previous years of unforgettable songs and performers include ..er...er...thingy, what's her name, hang on a minute...er...er....😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀

Just because they don't all chart in the UK doesn't mean some of these performers aren't successful in their own and surrounding territories.

Our jingoistic myopia on this point is one of the things that endears us to our European neighbours. Yes, they really love being called naff, rubbish, racist and corrupt every single year.

By the way, let's not forget that the British jury didn't award ABBA (approx. 150 million worldwide sales to date) a single point for 'Waterloo'.

Edited by Futtocks
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Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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2 hours ago, Futtocks said:

Just because they don't all chart in the UK doesn't mean some of these performers aren't successful in their own and surrounding territories.

Our jingoistic myopia on this point is one of the things that endears us to our European neighbours. Yes, they really love being called naff, rubbish, racist and corrupt every single year.

By the way, let's not forget that the British jury didn't award ABBA (approx. 150 million worldwide sales to date) a single point for 'Waterloo'.

I was just about to post something similar. Britain has to be one of the most inward looking countries in the world when it comes to appreciation and general knowledge of other cultures. A lot of the acts in Eurovision are superstars in their own countries just like in Britain we will have acts who are huge here but have never been heard of outside of these islands. 

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Not expecting huge things from our entry but, under current circumstances (our bumptious, untrustworthy pariah status on the world stage, for a start), a left-hand column finish would be momentous.

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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20 minutes ago, Futtocks said:

Not expecting huge things from our entry but, under current circumstances (our bumptious, untrustworthy pariah status on the world stage, for a start), a left-hand column finish would be momentous.

It’s not a bad song, I can’t forgive the “If I was” bits of it 😉 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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48 minutes ago, The Hallucinating Goose said:

I was just about to post something similar. Britain has to be one of the most inward looking countries in the world when it comes to appreciation and general knowledge of other cultures. A lot of the acts in Eurovision are superstars in their own countries just like in Britain we will have acts who are huge here but have never been heard of outside of these islands. 

There we go, the Italian song has been at number 1 in Italy for 10 weeks. Absolutely massive there. 

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That interval performance from Italy's first ever Eurovision winner Gigliola Cinquetti (and the crowd reaction) was really rather wonderful.

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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I think tonight's the night that Mika's nan accepts that it isn't just a phase he's going through.

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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No agonising wait to get off the mark this year - the UK got points from the very first country to announce!

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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1 minute ago, Damien said:

I just knew Ukraine was going to give the UK 12 points. 

Have we sent any other Eurovision nations enough deadly weapons to get their votes?

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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2 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

We are back!

A decade since we last troubled the left-hand column. Blimey!

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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Ukraine not getting a big slice of the jury votes. Might change later with the public votes, though.

Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

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