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Teams finishing 5th or 6th SHOULD NOT have a chance to win SL


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If teams finishing 5th and 6th should not have a chance, then neither should teams finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

Odd for the OP to have an issue with 5th and 6th but be happy enough with 4th having a chance

If anyone has an issue with any team making the playoffs winning the comp, their real issue should be the playoff concept, in whatever guise, altogether.

Edited by rhinos78
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So following on from my post yesterday I thought I'd take a look at the 10 years from 2009-2018 which had a more straightforward cup style knockout. The difference is stark.

In those 10 years we we had 5 finals that were 1v2. We also had 1 x 1v3, 1 x 2v3, 1 x 2v4, 1 x 2v5 and 1 x 3v5. We also had 4 wins from 1st, 2 from 2nd, 1 from 3rd, 1 from 4th and 2 from 5th. Therefore there was only a 50% chance of a 1v2 final with first or second only having a 60% chance of winning the Grand Final, with third 10% and fourth and fifth 30% combined. It is important to note that in 4 out of 10 years there was not even a 5th or 6th placed team so it is very likely these percentages would be even higher for lower places if we had.

In the 12 years from 1998-2008 & 2019, with the top 5 McIntyre system and the similar top 6 system, we had 9 finals between 1 v 2, 2 finals between 1 v 3 and 1 final between 2 v 3. Out of those we had 7 wins from 1st, 4 from 2nd and 1 from 3rd. In these 12 years we had a 75% chance of a 1v2 final. First or second also had a 92% chance of winning the Grand Final. Third an 8% chance and fourth or fifth none.

It's clear which system rewarded league placing more and which makes it easier for teams that finish lower down the league to win the Grand Final. The more a system becomes a cup knockout the less the advantage given to league placing. There certainly isnt a huge disadvantage in finishing 3-6 in the straightforward cup knockout type system we have now and the facts of what has happened under both styles of system bare this out.

Edited by Damien
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39 minutes ago, Damien said:

So following on from my post yesterday I thought I'd take a look at the 10 years from 2009-2018 which had a more straightforward cup style knockout. The difference is stark.

In those 10 years we we had 5 finals that were 1v2. We also had 1 x 1v3, 1 x 2v3, 1 x 2v4, 1 x 2v5 and 1 x 3v5. We also had 4 wins from 1st, 2 from 2nd, 1 from 3rd, 1 from 4th and 2 from 5th. Therefore there was only a 50% chance of a 1v2 final with first or second only having a 60% chance of winning the Grand Final, with third 10% and fourth and fifth 30% combined. It is important to note that in 4 out of 10 years there was not even a 5th or 6th placed team so it is very likely these percentages would be even higher for lower places if we had.

In the 12 years from 1998-2008 & 2019, with the top 5 McIntyre system and the similar top 6 system, we had 9 finals between 1 v 2, 2 finals between 1 v 3 and 1 final between 2 v 3. Out of those we had 7 wins from 1st, 4 from 2nd and 1 from 3rd. In these 12 years we had a 75% chance of a 1v2 final. First or second also had a 92% chance of winning the Grand Final. Third an 8% chance and fourth or fifth none.

It's clear which system rewarded league placing more and which makes it easier for teams that finish lower down the league to win the Grand Final. The more a system becomes a cup knockout the less the advantage given to league placing. There certainly isnt a huge disadvantage in finishing 3-6 in the straightforward cup knockout type system we have now and the facts of what has happened under both styles of system bare this out.

I agree with this.

Remember, in the top 5 system, if you finished in 5th place you had to beat all 4 teams that finished above you to win the competition and three of the games were at the home ground of the team finishing above you.

Winning two knockout games to get to the Grand Final from 5th or 6th while winning one knock out game to get to the Grand Final from 1st or 2nd just isn't enough of a difference if we are going to put value on finishing higher up the league and making the regular season games as meaningful as possible.

Edited by Dunbar
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"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

"If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn't value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?" — Sam Harris

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2 hours ago, Dunbar said:

I agree with this.

Remember, in the top 5 system, if you finished in 5th place you had to beat all 4 teams that finished above you to win the competition and three of the games were at the home ground of the team finishing above you.

Winning two knockout games to get to the Grand Final from 5th or 6th while winning one knock out game to get to the Grand Final from 1st or 2nd just isn't enough of a difference if we are going to put value on finishing higher up the league and making the regular season games as meaningful as possible.

So winning 3 knockout games to get to a grand final is so massively better than playing 2, for you?

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15 minutes ago, Tommygilf said:

So winning 3 knockout games to get to a grand final is so massively better than playing 2, for you?

I think I have explained this before but I will do it again.

I think that playing 3 knockout games away from home from 5th to get to the Grand Final is appropriately harder than winning one knockout game at home from 1st to get to the Grand Final (with a second chance should you lose your first game).

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"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

"If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn't value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?" — Sam Harris

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3 hours ago, Tommygilf said:

So winning 3 knockout games to get to a grand final is so massively better than playing 2, for you?

It isn’t about that it’s how it rewards 1st 2nd and even 3rd over 4th who had it slightly better than 5th. 

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10 hours ago, rhinos78 said:

If teams finishing 5th and 6th should not have a chance, then neither should teams finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

Odd for the OP to have an issue with 5th and 6th but be happy enough with 4th having a chance

If anyone has an issue with any team making the playoffs winning the comp, their real issue should be the playoff concept, in whatever guise, altogether.

I agree. For me, as long as the first placed side is in the final then a certain justice is done. And they ought to be, playing at home to either 4th-6th.

2nd to 6th I think any side that reaches the final will have deserved it. 

If Wigan had capitalised on their first half territorial advantage, albeit against a strong Leeds defence, then it would have been 1st v 2nd again as it has the past 2 years.

Then it would have been first v second 3 years in a row and fans would have been saying it is too top heavily weighted. 

 

 

Edited by Niels
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On 19/09/2022 at 08:34, bobbruce said:

1906- 39 were playoffs apart from the war years. Then 1947-62 were playoffs as were 1964-73. Then obviously 1998 to now were/are playoffs. Is that something like 84 years and counting that playoffs have decided the champions. 
 

Around 34 years were champions were decided by league leaders but most of that between 1973 and 97. 
 

 

Even during the first world war they continued the normal system with play-offs for 1914-15 season before going to FPTP for three seasons until the end of the war.

In the 1st two seasons of the second world war they had a Yorks comp and a Lancs comp (teams only playing others from their own county and none from the other) with the winners of each meeting in a two legged (H&A) play-off for the Championship.

With a number of clubs thereafter not being able to raise teams due to call ups, etc, they had a reduced unified FPTP championship for the duration, before returning to play-offs in the 1945-46 season.

On that basis, you can add another 4 years to your total of years with play-offs.

Edited by Barley Mow
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On 17/09/2022 at 09:48, Gerrumonside ref said:

I’d need to see the numbers before I’d accept the Super League Grand Final is in full on decline to the point of scrapping it tbh.

I am interested in what happens below Super League level for sure and there’s been some real stories in the last few years like the one you mention and London pipping Toronto.

But we’re probably in the minority here and I deffo think the broadcasters will want the best teams possible, playing in the biggest game possible as much of the time to bring in for them the audience share they are looking for.

Getting worse.

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3 minutes ago, BatleyFanAndy said:

Getting worse.

Did you watch it?

"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

"If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn't value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?" — Sam Harris

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46 minutes ago, BatleyFanAndy said:

Getting worse.

I think it’s still a healthy crowd in a cost of living crisis.

As you say the trend might not be what you want but I still think the game is making money on it every year.

I wonder how many people also stayed away who chose to invest in World Cup tickets instead?

Edited by Gerrumonside ref
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NRLW.

Roosters finish top with 5 wins from 5.

Eels in 4th with 1 win from 5.

Eels just beat the Roosters and now in the Grand Final after 2 wins from 6 in the season.

"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

"If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn't value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?" — Sam Harris

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1 hour ago, Dunbar said:

NRLW.

Roosters finish top with 5 wins from 5.

Eels in 4th with 1 win from 5.

Eels just beat the Roosters and now in the Grand Final after 2 wins from 6 in the season.

And that's how it can happen and did good luck to Parramatta.

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3 hours ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

I think it’s still a healthy crowd in a cost of living crisis.

As you say the trend might not be what you want but I still think the game is making money on it every year.

I wonder how many people also stayed away who chose to invest in World Cup tickets instead?

A few people have said that regarding WC tickets. Here's hoping for packed out stadiums 🙏 

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