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RL rules the South Pacific! PNG has 8 million more fans


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6 hours ago, Eddie said:

Ok, I’m still not sure why you think an overnight doubling of population estimate isn’t strange, but we’ll have to agree to disagree. 

Birth rate in PNG is nearly 4 so a doubling in 10 years could happen. Take into account the high incidence of rape and you'll get a lot of children born out of wedlock who won't be accounted for.

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41 minutes ago, NW10LDN said:

Birth rate in PNG is nearly 4 so a doubling in 10 years could happen. Take into account the high incidence of rape and you'll get a lot of children born out of wedlock who won't be accounted for.

What’s the infant mortality rate though, and general life expectancy? Rhetorical question btw. 

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4 minutes ago, Eddie said:

What’s the infant mortality rate though, and general life expectancy? Rhetorical question btw. 

High but even countries with a high rate can still have experience huge population growth. See Africa.

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8 hours ago, Eddie said:

The data was woeful then. Not sure what point you’re trying to make, there is something fishy about a 21st century country, albeit an impoverished one, suddenly doubling their official population. 

It still happens in Australia. We have many people in remote communities born “outside of the system” and not registered anywhere formally. I can definitely understand how the estimate in PNG was inaccurate. 

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1 hour ago, dealwithit said:

It still happens in Australia. We have many people in remote communities born “outside of the system” and not registered anywhere formally. I can definitely understand how the estimate in PNG was inaccurate. 

In Queensland 15-18% of kids born to indigenous mothers aren’t registered. Lots of young people are affected, it’s not just the elderly in remote areas.

The estimate is over 200,000 indigenous people haven’t had their birth registered (Source : Pathfinder NGO who helps indigenous people get birth certificates https://www.pathfinders.ngo/pathfinders-and-unicef-australia-partnership-to-pave-the-way-towards-universal-birth-registration/ )

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10 hours ago, pahars said:

They don’t count people in the UK. They go on to national databases that have births, marriages and deaths, electoral role, taxpayers, benefit claimants, pensioners, children in education etc etc and on top of that we have a census every few years. 

None of that bureaucracy exists in rural PNG and it’s not the type of place you turn up at a remote village and start asking questions. 
 

The figure may have been an accurate reflection of the data they actually had  rather then an estimate. 

Every national population statistic is an estimate.

I don’t understand why people are picking on @Eddie’s use of the word estimate.

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There has been a view (within the likes of AusAID, DFAT, etc) that the true population of PNG was larger than that officially reported, however most of those estimates were more around the 11-12m mark versus some of the numbers the UN has put out which go as high as 18m.

Considering the lack of urbanisation in the country, the remoteness of many parts, especially in the Highlands and Fly River regions, the many different languages spoken across the country (more than 800 recognised) and just a lack of basic infrastructure ranging from roads, schools, hospitals, etc, its certainly not unrealistic for large populations of people to be uncounted for... not sure if it's quite as high as some of the estimates, but that said, they must have come to that figure based upon some evidence. 

In terms of the popularity of Rugby League across the country, there is no doubt it is popular, the fact simple off season competitions can attract 100+ teams per grade in just the north-west or south of Port Moresby is evidence of that, as to is the crowds that random events attract in remote parts of the country.

This is an example of just an Coca-Cola Ipatas Cup match being played in Komo in the Hela Province on a Wednesday.

FB_IMG_1670571040699.jpg.e2c64074d0e890c6357eee8e758eb69e.jpg

The PNGRFL have said they know of over 70 unaffiliated competitions across the country, but there could be more because outside of the key population centres, the PNGRFL has a very limited presence. 

The popularity of the sport isn't equal across the country, the western parts definitely have a lot of competition from soccer, whilst some of the Islands like New Ireland and Bougainville have had years where no (known) competitive football has taken place (though no doubt civil unrest contributes to that)

It's often been a major argument by the Digicel Cup bid teams in the likes of Sepik (North West), Fly River (South West) and the islands to try and solidify a presence for the sport in these outposts. On the western Provinces, the weaker presence of the code also explains why there is no known RL in West Papua.

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I think only on a RL forum would the population of PNG cause so much debate!

I personally don't think the 17 million figure is accurate, that's a heck of a lot of people not to be seen from plane and satellite in the modern digital age. For an additional 8 million people you have to be talking about some fairly major conurbations/settlements and not just isolated areas that are off the grid so to speak. The UN also seem to have distanced itself from the report saying it is an internal draft, still going through an internal review and shouldn't have been released yet. The PNG PM also seems to doubt the 17 million figure.

I have no doubt there are a lot of undocumented people in remote areas and that the true population is higher than the 9 million or so that is quoted. I can well believe figures like 11 million or 13 million, as the PNG PM believes it could be, but find an almost doubling of the population hard to believe.

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12 hours ago, NW10LDN said:

High but even countries with a high rate can still have experience huge population growth. See Africa.

While on the subject of Africa there are predictions it’s population could almost treble by 2100, with Europe and Asia having a decline on their current numbers.

Tying it back to RL international development the fact that Nigeria could be the 2nd most populous nation on earth in 80 years means the tiny acorns we have there now need nurturing. 
 

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48 minutes ago, pahars said:

While on the subject of Africa there are predictions it’s population could almost treble by 2100, with Europe and Asia having a decline on their current numbers.

Tying it back to RL international development the fact that Nigeria could be the 2nd most populous nation on earth in 80 years means the tiny acorns we have there now need nurturing. 
 

If Africa’s population trebles by 2100 I don’t think developing RL will be near the top of their agenda. 

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30 minutes ago, Eddie said:

If Africa’s population trebles by 2100 I don’t think developing RL will be near the top of their agenda. 

I agree, I wouldn’t expect developing RL to be anywhere near a African government’s agenda, never mind the top.
 

I think it would be a good idea for the  RL community to help have a well organised niche domestic tournament, with international opportunities. 
 

Eventually all sports will begin a race for Africa’s sports dollars. Let’s try and get something modest but successful established before that. As I said tiny acorns. 

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On 07/12/2022 at 09:08, Sports Prophet said:

17m does seem like a very large figure for such a small sized country.

Small?

It's nearly twice as big as the UK.

UK 242,500 km²

PNG 462,800 km²

"We'll sell you a seat .... but you'll only need the edge of it!"

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This should be so easy to sort out.

First, send everyone in PNG a WhatsApp message (can even put it on Twitter to be doubly sure) and tell them to meet up on Saturday.  Not tomorrow, that's a bit too soon, maybe next Saturday. 

Then, we can get them all in a big field and form a queue where people can take a number from one of those deli counter things... I'm sure can find one big enough 1 to 20,000,000 to be safe.

Once someone has taken a number, they can head home.  I reckon we will be done by lunch, mid afternoon at the latest.

That's just what I do. I solve problems.

"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby.

"If someone doesn't value evidence, what evidence are you going to provide to prove that they should value it? If someone doesn't value logic, what logical argument could you provide to show the importance of logic?" — Sam Harris

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2 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

This should be so easy to sort out.

First, send everyone in PNG a WhatsApp message (can even put it on Twitter to be doubly sure) and tell them to meet up on Saturday.  Not tomorrow, that's a bit too soon, maybe next Saturday. 

Then, we can get them all in a big field and form a queue where people can take a number from one of those deli counter things... I'm sure can find one big enough 1 to 20,000,000 to be safe.

Once someone has taken a number, they can head home.  I reckon we will be done by lunch, mid afternoon at the latest.

That's just what I do. I solve problems.

We've got 16 days to tell them to go back to the town of their father's birth for a counting. Any who cannot find lodgings will have to sleep in, let's say, a stable ...

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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On 06/12/2022 at 16:00, Eddie said:

So they thought there were 8m people in PNG in 2011 but now they think there are 17m in 2022. Sounds like codswallop to me, how could the previous estimate have been so woeful? 

Having worked briefly in PNG about fifteen years back, it's not just possible, its most likely.

Outside of PM, easily the most primitive nation I have ever visited, barely a nation in truth. In fifteen years I can imagine that its infra-structure and governance has improve a fair bit and now reached places it didn't used to.

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4 hours ago, Damien said:

I think only on a RL forum would the population of PNG cause so much debate!

I personally don't think the 17 million figure is accurate, that's a heck of a lot of people not to be seen from plane and satellite in the modern digital age. For an additional 8 million people you have to be talking about some fairly major conurbations/settlements and not just isolated areas that are off the grid so to speak.

An extra eight million people in an area twice the size of the UK, covered mostly by jungle?

I'm not sure that's as unrealistic as you imply.

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"We'll sell you a seat .... but you'll only need the edge of it!"

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2 hours ago, Dunbar said:

This should be so easy to sort out.

First, send everyone in PNG a WhatsApp message (can even put it on Twitter to be doubly sure) and tell them to meet up on Saturday.  Not tomorrow, that's a bit too soon, maybe next Saturday. 

Then, we can get them all in a big field and form a queue where people can take a number from one of those deli counter things... I'm sure can find one big enough 1 to 20,000,000 to be safe.

Once someone has taken a number, they can head home.  I reckon we will be done by lunch, mid afternoon at the latest.

That's just what I do. I solve problems.

Tell them there will be an impromptu SOO taking place in Moresby. That’ll get them all down there.

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13 minutes ago, Sports Prophet said:

I don’t think being twice as big as the UK qualifies a country as being big. 

The UK has 70 million people in it and plenty of room to fit in more.

So if PNG is twice the size then ...

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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7 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

The UK has 70 million people in it and plenty of room to fit in more.

So if PNG is twice the size then ...

In no way does PNG have the same infrastructure to support such a high density living capacity as the UK. 

But, PNG has 17m, sure, I can believe that. I’m just a little like some of the others that question an 8m increase in such a short period. I don’t care if there is 7m, 17m or 77m.

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2 minutes ago, Sports Prophet said:

In no way does PNG have the same infrastructure to support such a high density living capacity as the UK. 

But, PNG has 17m, sure, I can believe that. I’m just a little like some of the others that question an 8m increase in such a short period. I don’t care if there is 7m, 17m or 77m.

Nothing you've written here relates to anything I wrote.

Better get that moving the goalposts gif out again.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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7 minutes ago, Sports Prophet said:

In no way does PNG have the same infrastructure to support such a high density living capacity as the UK. 

But, PNG has 17m, sure, I can believe that. I’m just a little like some of the others that question an 8m increase in such a short period. I don’t care if there is 7m, 17m or 77m.

Maybe there isn't a huge increase in a short period.

Maybe they had a lot more than they thought.

Maybe they didn't count everybody.

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"We'll sell you a seat .... but you'll only need the edge of it!"

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