Sat 27th-Sun 28th May: The Betfred Championship Summer Bash Match Thread

[The Blues Ox]

16 hours ago, Chris_T said:

Fax got a tougher game on paper than Batley did?  

Whoever was to come out on the wrong side of the Halifax V Batley game was going to be hard done by especially when a couple of our rivals for the playoffs were essentially given byes.

[sweaty craiq]

2 hours ago, Leonard said:

Must be aggregate.

I went after London v TO and there was not a stream of York fans coming into the stadium and it was hardly full when I went. No way 3,800 for that game alone unless there was a mass walk up in 30 mins.

Races in York were rammed though and not sure if half term/BH is ever a plus or minus to these thing.

I didn't mind shelling out for a cab there and back, but, even though its a great little ground, I would agree the location is a bit off putting for many.

If you take it to a clubs stadium then make sure that club and locality have a decent fan base, York haven’t and  does not have the cheap stay options that a coastal resort does eg caravans etc

[The Phantom Horseman]

Looking back over the weekend at the winners and losers, there will be a few teams that will be very happy with their work, notably Batley, Bradford, London and Fev, whilst Sheffield (despite winning) and Halifax will be unhappy, but perhaps the result with the longest-term implications might be Toulouse's defeat. They are having terrible injury problems at the moment but they aren't playing like a team where a steady return of players will see a dramatic transformation in fortunes.

It has to be said they have played lots of away games lately and have a string of home games over the next couple of months but I think that many teams will now see them as beatable even in France given they have lost to 3 teams that aren't in the top 6.

The reason I say long-term implications is that if Toulouse finish out of say the top 4, which looks distinctly possible on current form, that will have quite a negative impact on their IMG points compared with some of the teams they are likely to be competing against in terms of IMG scores such as Fev, Wakefield, Castleford etc.

It's hard to tell but from the outside looking in they don't seem to be in great shape financially either. There seemed to be a feelingin some quarters that not spending much on the squad this year was a calculated act but that would seem a dangerous game to play.

[The Phantom Horseman]

On 28/05/2023 at 15:52, Harry Stottle said:

 I still believe it is as I stated before a ball was kicked this season it is a given Fev would win promotion and if you also recall I also said that Fev would go the regular season unbeaten, I still believe that to be so.

Harry, regardless of whether or not this prediction turns out to be true, it betrays a lack of understanding of the impact of variables in short-term events.

If you had predicted with confidence that Fev would prove to be the best team over the course of the season, fine. But any one individual game is so crammed with potential variables - a couple of injuries, a red card, one team having an off day whilst another has a day where everything comes off - that suggesting in advance that you know for sure an outcome in the way you are stating just indicates a lack of understanding of probability.

Fev are rightly favourites for promotion, and if you stated they would beat most of their rivals 8 or 9 times out of ten I wouldn't disagree with you. But implying a 100% chance to something that is an 80% or 90% chance isn't smart prognostication, it's just guesswork.

[Jill Halfpenny fan]

1 hour ago, The Phantom Horseman said:

Looking back over the weekend at the winners and losers, there will be a few teams that will be very happy with their work, notably Batley, Bradford, London and Fev, whilst Sheffield (despite winning) and Halifax will be unhappy, but perhaps the result with the longest-term implications might be Toulouse's defeat. They are having terrible injury problems at the moment but they aren't playing like a team where a steady return of players will see a dramatic transformation in fortunes.

It has to be said they have played lots of away games lately and have a string of home games over the next couple of months but I think that many teams will now see them as beatable even in France given they have lost to 3 teams that aren't in the top 6.

The reason I say long-term implications is that if Toulouse finish out of say the top 4, which looks distinctly possible on current form, that will have quite a negative impact on their IMG points compared with some of the teams they are likely to be competing against in terms of IMG scores such as Fev, Wakefield, Castleford etc.

It's hard to tell but from the outside looking in they don't seem to be in great shape financially either. There seemed to be a feelingin some quarters that not spending much on the squad this year was a calculated act but that would seem a dangerous game to play.

Will be interesting this weekend if Fax go over with a decent squad and have a dig.

[Gav Wilson]

2 hours ago, sweaty craiq said:

If you take it to a clubs stadium then make sure that club and locality have a decent fan base, York haven’t and  does not have the cheap stay options that a coastal resort does eg caravans etc

Apropos of nothing, but there are seven caravan parks within 2 miles of York's stadium. Two are within 500 meters.

 

[Ragingbull]

35 minutes ago, Gav Wilson said:

Apropos of nothing, but there are seven caravan parks within 2 miles of York's stadium. Two are within 500 meters.

 

Stop it Gav dont let facts get in the way of a good arguement!

[POR]

1 hour ago, Gav Wilson said:

Apropos of nothing, but there are seven caravan parks within 2 miles of York's stadium. Two are within 500 meters.

 

True G but you got to bring your own caravan

[Harry Stottle]

3 hours ago, The Phantom Horseman said:

Harry, regardless of whether or not this prediction turns out to be true, it betrays a lack of understanding of the impact of variables in short-term events.

If you had predicted with confidence that Fev would prove to be the best team over the course of the season, fine. But any one individual game is so crammed with potential variables - a couple of injuries, a red card, one team having an off day whilst another has a day where everything comes off - that suggesting in advance that you know for sure an outcome in the way you are stating just indicates a lack of understanding of probability.

Fev are rightly favourites for promotion, and if you stated they would beat most of their rivals 8 or 9 times out of ten I wouldn't disagree with you. But implying a 100% chance to something that is an 80% or 90% chance isn't smart prognostication, it's just guesswork.

80 or 90% chance and a lack of understanding of probability? it is just a feeling yes it's just guesswork whether or not I am right or wrong it is just a bit of fun.

Infact this is the second time that I have made such a statement the first was when Hull FC went unbeaten to win the Championship and I won £1 which bought me 4 pints at the end of the 78/79 season, so I have a 100% record for thus type of prediction which may turn out to be repeated this term,  if it does my prognostication would be very smart don't you think Or just lucky guesswork?

I may be wrong Phantom and you don't go unbeaten in the league, but I wouldn't bet against your lot joining my lot in SL next term, WOULD YOU?

[Harry Stottle]

4 hours ago, The Phantom Horseman said:

The reason I say long-term implications is that if Toulouse finish out of say the top 4, which looks distinctly possible on current form, that will have quite a negative impact on their IMG points compared with some of the teams they are likely to be competing against in terms of IMG scores such as Fev, Wakefield, Castleford etc.

Are you not considering the 'potential' that Toulouse have in many peoples eyes, that may be an hidden category in the list of criteria that could carry a few points.

[The Phantom Horseman]

9 hours ago, Harry Stottle said:

80 or 90% chance and a lack of understanding of probability? it is just a feeling yes it's just guesswork whether or not I am right or wrong it is just a bit of fun.

 

Fair enough Harry and apologies that I seem a bit waspish about this, it's just that betting plays an important part in my life and it irks me when people talk in deterministic terms (ie "this will happen, that won't happen") rather than probablistic ones ("there's a 90% chance that this happens"). As you can imagine, I'm a right laugh to talk to at parties...

9 hours ago, Harry Stottle said:

I may be wrong Phantom and you don't go unbeaten in the league, but I wouldn't bet against your lot joining my lot in SL next term, WOULD YOU?

Depends on what odds you offer me. For example, even money and I'd bite your hand off. I obviously think we are more likely to be promoted than not promoted.

Fev look 99%+ certain to finish top two and in the play-offs as things stand, depending on the opponents I'd probably make us something like  1-4 favourites to win each of the two games we'd face to get promotion. That implies an 80% chance of winning each game, which combined comes to about a 64% chance of getting promotion (or roughly a 4-7 shot in betting parlance).

Fev are currently a 4-11 chance to win the Grand Final with Betfred and Skybet btw.

[The Phantom Horseman]

9 hours ago, Harry Stottle said:

Are you not considering the 'potential' that Toulouse have in many peoples eyes, that may be an hidden category in the list of criteria that could carry a few points.

Well the points system has already been fairly clearly set out  https://www.rugby-league.com/uploads/docs/IMG & Rugby League Grading Criteria[81].pdf  (acknowledging the changes already made to the Catchment category) and whilst there is still room for more detail, there is no way there can be a "hidden" list of criteria, the points available in each category and sub-category are already clearly and transparently outlined down to decimal points for each sub-category in many instances, there's no space for something as nebulous as "potential" and there would be the mother of all court cases if anything like that was jemmied in.

[sweaty craiq]

12 hours ago, Gav Wilson said:

Apropos of nothing, but there are seven caravan parks within 2 miles of York's stadium. Two are within 500 meters.

 

As stated for families booking an 8 berth not dragging a traffic blocker, what u have are a couple of fields not state of the art leisure villages with entertainment and red coats

[Guest]

12 hours ago, Gav Wilson said:

Apropos of nothing, but there are seven caravan parks within 2 miles of York's stadium. Two are within 500 meters.

 

Why does the average RL fan dream of staying in a dump in Blackpool for £20 a night as a dream weekend?

It's very odd. More than happy to stay in a nice hotel. 

[Guest]

Leigh fans obsessed with Toulouse shocker. 

[crashmon]

The point of the BASH was to make it a weekend event, a day out somewhere not in the middle of the RL heartlands.   I would scrap the BASH now TBH, as we don't have the finances in the game for an event like this anymore for the 2nd tier (I would keep magic though).

In regards promotion, I really don't see an issue with Fev being promoted, they are just replacing Wakey so its effectivly a like for like replacement when you consider the catchment area for grading

 

[POR]

1 hour ago, Leonard said:

 

It's very odd. More than happy to stay in a nice hotel. 

here you go L BOULAVARD HOTEL BLACKPOOL

[Keep The Faith]

I don’t get why people are moaning about people going to Blackpool for the weekend? Watching it together probably had more atmosphere than other games on our league

I saw plenty of Rugby league fans other than Featherstone there, Fax Batley Bradford and a few super league clubs also the local pubs and restaurants also hotel we stayed in asked why it was there we’re expecting it back at Bloomfield road for the weekend 

could spell the end moving from there as it did with the NRC 

[Guest]

46 minutes ago, POR said:

here you go L BOULAVARD HOTEL BLACKPOOL

Looks like Blackpool has reinvested some of the Bash windfall. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, crashmon said:

The point of the BASH was to make it a weekend event, a day out somewhere not in the middle of the RL heartlands.   I would scrap the BASH now TBH, as we don't have the finances in the game for an event like this anymore for the 2nd tier (I would keep magic though).

In regards promotion, I really don't see an issue with Fev being promoted, they are just replacing Wakey so its effectivly a like for like replacement when you consider the catchment area for grading

 

Have you ever been to a Bash?

[Harry Stottle]

2 hours ago, The Phantom Horseman said:

Fair enough Harry and apologies that I seem a bit waspish about this, it's just that betting plays an important part in my life and it irks me when people talk in deterministic terms (ie "this will happen, that won't happen") rather than probablistic ones ("there's a 90% chance that this happens"). As you can imagine, I'm a right laugh to talk to at parties...

Depends on what odds you offer me. For example, even money and I'd bite your hand off. I obviously think we are more likely to be promoted than not promoted.

Fev look 99%+ certain to finish top two and in the play-offs as things stand, depending on the opponents I'd probably make us something like  1-4 favourites to win each of the two games we'd face to get promotion. That implies an 80% chance of winning each game, which combined comes to about a 64% chance of getting promotion (or roughly a 4-7 shot in betting parlance).

Fev are currently a 4-11 chance to win the Grand Final with Betfred and Skybet btw.

Yes I can see you do take betting seriously, I think the last time I went into a bookies was in the 70's. The Hull FC £1 bet I referred to was with a mate, just for discussions sake how did you rate Leigh's odds of gaining promotion last season?

[Harry Stottle]

2 hours ago, Leonard said:

Leigh fans obsessed with Toulouse shocker. 

????

Not at all, I have nothing against all clubs being treated equally, that means no fast tracking and no protection from relegation, albeit I am not one in favour of the IMG system hopefully every club will be adjudged on it's own merits, are you in agreement with that Leonard?

[The Phantom Horseman]

31 minutes ago, Harry Stottle said:

 just for discussions sake how did you rate Leigh's odds of gaining promotion last season?

That depends on when you would have asked me I think! After the game at POR I would have probably been quite positive about Fev's chances of finishing above Leigh. We steadily slipped backwards (even when winning) after that, but Leigh made lots more signings and from the 1895 final onwards I thought it was very hard to look beyond them. It's kind of a relief that Leigh have turned out to be an above-average SL team as it makes our struggles last year against you a bit more understandable, though we didn't get beyond the semi final anyway.

[OriginalMrC]

Definitely think proximity to caravan parks needs to be an IMG criteria. Extra points for proximity to 8 berth caravans 

[GUBRATS]

2 hours ago, crashmon said:

The point of the BASH was to make it a weekend event, a day out somewhere not in the middle of the RL heartlands.   I would scrap the BASH now TBH, as we don't have the finances in the game for an event like this anymore for the 2nd tier (I would keep magic though).

In regards promotion, I really don't see an issue with Fev being promoted, they are just replacing Wakey so its effectivly a like for like replacement when you consider the catchment area for grading

 

Correct , it was like the MW , an ' event ' that the fans of every club could attend that included their team , when at Blackpool a relatively cheap and both adult and family friendly venue , it also was a cheap way of showcasing the second tier on SKY with a single set up cost 

Last year and this ( only from what I've read on here ) it hasn't worked , if Blackpool is no longer an option I don't really see where it can go to achieve what it previously did , and if it cannot do that , then given that it also skews the league table as a ' loop ' fixture , then drop it , there is no point