Predicted Top Eight

[Graham]

Again this year I’ve jumped in before Farmduck who usually crunches the numbers and does a thread similar to this.

What are each team’s possible/likely finishing positions regarding the top eight by the end of the last regular round of the 2024 season?

MELBOURNE STORM (34 points, +141)

Predicted finish: 1st

Chance of finishing top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 99.9%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 69.7%
Remaining games: Eels (A), Dragons (H), Rabbitohs (A), Panthers (A), Dolphins (H), Cowboys (A), Broncos (A)

PENRITH PANTHERS (30 points, +118)

Predicted finish: 2nd

Chance of finishing top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 98.4%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 26.4%

Remaining games: Dragons (A), Knights (H), Eels (A), Storm (A), Raiders (A), Rabbitohs (H), Titans (H)

 

CRONULLA SHARKS (28 points, +125)

Predicted finish: 3rd

Chance of finishing top eight: 99.7%

Chance of finishing top four: 85.2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 3.8%

Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Rabbitohs (H), Titans (A), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H), Sea Eagles (A)

 

SYDNEY ROOSTERS (26 points, +209)

Predicted finish: 4th

Chance of finishing top eight: 98.6%

Chance of finishing top four: 67.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%

Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), Dolphins (A), Eels (H), Titans (A), Raiders (H), Rabbitohs (A)

MANLY SEA EAGLES (25 points, +97)

Predicted finish: 5th

Chance of finishing top eight: 85.7%

Chance of finishing top four: 19.4%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Roosters (A), bye, Raiders (A), Warriors (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (A), Sharks (H)

 

CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (24 points, +63)

Predicted finish: 6th

Chance of finishing top eight: 74.2%

Chance of finishing top four: 9.9%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Broncos (A), Raiders (H), Dragons (A), Dolphins (H), Warriors (A), Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H)

DOLPHINS (24 points, +46)

Predicted finish: 7th

Chance of finishing top eight: 71.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 9%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Titans (H), Roosters (H), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Storm (A), Broncos (H), Knights (A)

 

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (24 points, +3)

Predicted finish: 8th

Chance of finishing top eight: 63.3%

Chance of finishing top four: 4.2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Sharks (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Raiders (H), bye, Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)

 

Farmduck usually gives us a range of possibilities for each club - the highest they could finish and the lowest.

The above info doesn’t show the clubs that could be vying for those last few top eight places.

Edited July 24 by Graham

[Farmduck]

Here are the also-rans. In theory all these teams bar Parra and Wests could still reach 32 points

 

ST. GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (24 points, -56)

Predicted finish: 9th

Chance of finishing top eight: 61.2%

Chance of finishing top four: 6.3%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Panthers (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Titans (H), Sharks (H), Eels (A), Raiders (H)

While everyone knows they are a vastly improved product under the guidance of new coach Shane Flanagan, the Dragons are seemingly sneaking under the radar. It seems wild that the Red V are on the same amount of wins as the Bulldogs, although the fact they’ve had three heavy defeats this season might be an attributing factor why they don’t have the buzz around them like a team like the Dogs. To the Dragons’ credit, they boast the trait of being able to quickly put a loss behind them. They have yet to lose more than two games in a row this season. They face a murderer’s row of opponents in the next three weeks with the Panthers, Storm and Bulldogs to come before a soft final month of the season.

BRISBANE BRONCOS (20 points, +25)

Predicted finish: 10th

Chance of finishing top eight: 20.5%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), Titans (A), Cowboys (A), bye, Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Storm (H)

Back on track with a dominant win over Newcastle, ending a losing streak which lasted over two months. That Broncos team we saw last Saturday is a top four side, however they have probably left their run too late. Remarkably, the bookies have Brisbane on the fifth line of betting for the premiership ($15) despite sitting two wins outside of the eight with seven rounds remaining. While they aren’t officially in ‘can’t lose’ territory just yet, they basically are. For the Broncos to progress, they’ll probably need to win five of their final six games. The Fox Sports Lab rates them a one in five chance of finishing in the top eight, meaning their premiership odds are extreme unders.

 

CANBERRA RAIDERS (22 points, -91)

Predicted finish: 11th

Chance of finishing top eight: 13.2%

Chance of finishing top four: 0.4%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Bulldogs (A), Manly (H), Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (A), Dragons (A)

Canberra’s top eight chances increased slightly from 11.2% to 13.2% after their nailbiting win over the Warriors. Jamal Fogarty’s return was crucial in Canberra’s win, with his creativity and strong kicking game much-needed as the Raiders struggled with him on the sideline. Even the most diehard Raiders fan will admit Ricky Stuart’s men will have work cut out for them to make the finals, with the Green Machine needing to win at least five of their last seven games which included tough match-ups against the Panthers, Sea Eagles and Roosters.

 

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (20 points, -90)

Predicted finish: 12th

Chance of finishing top eight: 4.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 0

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0

Remaining games: Raiders (A), Sharks (A), Storm (H), Tigers (A), Knights (H), Panthers (A), Roosters (H)

The loss to the Dolphins in Round 19 proved killer. Despite a bounce back win over the Tigers last week, the Rabbitohs have too much to do by the looks of things. No Latrell Mitchell for at least the next month doesn’t help. While they are playing like a top eight team, they’re awful start to the season have left them with too big a mountain to climb. With seven games remaining, Souths need to win six, potentially seven of those to make the eight and with games against current top three sides Cronulla, Melbourne and Penrith to come, it doesn’t look likely.

 

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (20 points, -97)

Predicted finish: 13th

Chance of finishing top eight: 4.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: bye, Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Dolphins (H)

A bye in Round 21 lifts them to 22 points, meaning the Knights need to probably win at least five of their last six to be a chance. We just don’t see it happening considering the form they are in, having lost their past two games by a combined margin of 52.

 

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (19 points, -34)

Predicted finish: 14th

Chance of finishing top eight: 3.8%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Tigers (H), Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Manly (A), Bulldogs (H), Sharks (A), Bye

To say it’s been a disappointing season for the Warriors would be an understatement. After finishing fourth last year, Andrew Webster’s side have been incredibly poor in 2024, leaving them with very slim finals chances after Round 20. Simply put they’ll need a miracle to qualify for the finals this year, with the Fox Sports Lab giving less than a 4% chance of doing so. They face the Tigers and Eels in the coming weeks before ending their season with a run of games against finals hunting sides. Tough.

 

GOLD COAST TITANS (18 points, -89)

Predicted finish: 15th

Chance of finishing top eight: 0.6%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (H), Dragons (A), Roosters (H), Knights (A), Panthers (A)

In recent weeks the Gold Coast Titans have found some form. Against Manly, that form went out the window. As did their slim finals chances, which got slimmer following their 30-point loss to the Sea Eagles. Des Hasler’s side’s chances of making the top eight have fallen to sub-1% after their loss, meaning all they’re doing in the coming weeks is planning for next season, when they’ll no doubt be much improved.

 

PARRAMATTA EELS (14 points, -153)

Predicted finish: 16th

Chance of finishing top eight: 0%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Storm (H), Warriors (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (A), Broncos (A), Dragons (H), Tigers (A)

2024 has been a season to forget for the Eels. They find themselves bottom of the ladder, without several of their stars for the rest of the season, and helplessly waiting for the season to end and next year to begin. Parramatta have mathematically no chance of making the finals, though the writing of their season was on the walls weeks ago. With new head coach Jason Ryles joining the club earlier than expected, the Eels players won’t be playing for nothing over the back end of the year, they’ll likely be playing for their futures

 

WESTS TIGERS (18 points, -217)

Predicted finish: 17th

Chance of finishing top eight: 0%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Warriors (A), Cowboys (H), Knights (A), Souths (A), Manly (H), Bye, Eels (H)

What can be said about the Tigers season that hasn’t already been said. 2024 is yet another year where the club won’t experience finals football, with the last time the club competed in September coming while Lachlan Galvin was still in primary school. Benji Marshall’s side recorded their 14th loss of the season in Round 20 and their tough run home means that figure will likely rise before the season ends.

[StandOffHalf]

Three wild-ish calls that I'll make:

Cronulla will slide out of Top 4

Dolphins won't make the 8

Brisbane will sneak into the Finals.

[Spotty Herbert]

1 hour ago, StandOffHalf said:

Three wild-ish calls that I'll make:

Cronulla will slide out of Top 4

Dolphins won't make the 8

Brisbane will sneak into the Finals.

If the Sharks beat the Cowboys this week, NQC drop out of the 8 and the Sharks could stay in the top 4. Broncos could make the 8, but I don't see the Dolphins dropping out. I still feel Souths have a chance of getting there as well, with 4 winnable games and the Roosters (where form often goes out of the window).

[Anita Bath]

Broncos have a friendly schedule….but if Reynolds were to get injured again they could lose the lot.

[Spotty Herbert]

I think there could be as many as four teams tied for 8th. Struggling to split Dolphins, Raiders, Dragons and Knights, although I suspect the Raiders might do it. Broncos and Warriors could still do it as well.

Whatever happens with 8th, there are only 3 teams that are capable of winning a grand final, and the Roosters will have to improve if it isn't just two contenders.

[Graham]

Broncos going the wrong way. Looks like they have blown their top 8 chances.

Remaining fixtures

Titans away

 Cowboys away

Bye 2  points

Eels home

Dolphins away but not
Storm home

So 2 points guaranteed 

 

[StandOffHalf]

That's Brisbane done, in all likelihood.

[Anita Bath]

And more trouble at mill…selwyn cobbo under investigation for DV…he didnt bother telling broncos…they found out from other sources.

 

He wont play at the weekend.

 

Things going from bad to worse at Redhill

[Farmduck]

Here are the "theoretical" finalists - still technically viable but mostly unlikely. They could still reach the 32-point mark although it may only take 30 to snag 7th spot. One great unknown with many of these teams is the form of Cronulla. Five of these teams play the Sharks and those games could go either way. Then there's the "default factor" where Manly and Redcliffe go so bad that lower teams can sneak up the ladder. After all, someone's gotta be there:

 

 

8. DOLPHINS  (24 points, +39)

 

Remaining games:  Roosters (H), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Storm (A), Broncos (H), Knights (A)

I'm not sure the Dolphins can reach 32. They should beat Warriors, Broncos and Knights. Their biggest assets are the unconvincing form of the teams around them and their superior +/- compared to the teams below them.

One problem with the Phins is they've only played 6 games this year against teams in the top 8. (and won 3)

 

9. CANBERRA RAIDERS (24 points, -71)

Remaining games: Bulldogs (A), Manly (H), Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (A), Dragons (A)

Might only get one win, against the Dargons. Also I can't see where they would repair their +/- which they'd need if they finish on equal points with the aquatic mammals.

 

10. ST. GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (24 points, -92)

Remaining games: Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Titans (H), Sharks (H), Eels (A), Raiders (H)

Possibly the best draw of all the teams on 24 points. Again, I can't see them fixing their -92 points differential. Even if I give them the wins against Titans, Eels and Raiders, that's only 30 points

 

11. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (22 points, -97)

Remaining games: Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Dolphins (H)

As I said above, 30 points might be enough but their +/- would hurt them. They would need upset wins aginst Panthers, Dolphins or Sharks to reach any higher.

 

12. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (21 points, -22)

Remaining games: Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Manly (A), Bulldogs (H), Sharks (A), Bye

I have questions over Cronulla and Dolphins so they could be 2 wins for NZers but, throw in the bye and the Parra game and that still only gets them to 29 points.

 

13. BRISBANE BRONCOS (20 points, +0)

Remaining games: Titans (A), Cowboys (A), bye, Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Storm (H)

I might tip them against Parra and Bellamy might rest half his team for the final round but they only need to lose 2 games and they're officially gone.

 

 

14. GOLD COAST TITANS (20 points, -82)

Remaining games: Broncos (H), Sharks (H), Dragons (A), Roosters (H), Knights (A), Panthers (A)

I can't see them winning away games against Chooks and Panthers.

 

15. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (20 points, -110)

Remaining games: Sharks (A), Storm (H), Tigers (A), Knights (H), Panthers (A), Roosters (H)

In theory, they win all 6 and score a couple to 40-point wins to fix their +/-. In reality, no.

 

Of course this is all just sorting out the fine print. If any of these teams reach the finals, then what? In the space of 3 weeks they beat the Chooks, Storm and Panthers? No.

 

 

 

 

[Spotty Herbert]

There is a scenario where 4 teams finish on 28 in joint 8th place. Unlikely, but you never know ....

[Farmduck]

12 minutes ago, Spotty Herbert said:

There is a scenario where 4 teams finish on 28 in joint 8th place. Unlikely, but you never know ....

Of the teams likely to do that, only the Phins currently have a positive +/-

[Spotty Herbert]

Whichever one of Dolphins, Raiders or Dragons can win 3 of their last 6 qualifies for the 8 in my opinion. I'd love it to be the Phins, but have a suspicion that Ricky will sneak his lot in.

[Anita Bath]

The team I find most difficult to predict is the cowboys…could end up top four or bottom 6…all depends which Cowboys team turns up. At Tigers this week and we all remember what happened there last season dont we.

[Farmduck]

At the top, I expect Storm to win 4 and finish on 44 points, Panthers win 4 and land on 42. So it comes down to the Storm/Panthers game in Round 24. If Storm win that they'll finish on top. If Penrith wins they could finish on top. Panthers' +/- is currently only 5 points better than Storm so both teams need to thump someone. They both play the Bunnies so the score in those games might determine the Minor Premiership winner.

4 teams have already reached 30 points and the Cows are on 28 with a bye up their sleeve. I still think it's possible that the 8th team will only reach 30

I can't see any team below the Raiders reching the finals and I don't think Raiders or Dolphins can overtake St George.

 

5. CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (28 points, +92)

Predicted finish: 6th

Remaining games: Dragons (A), Dolphins (H), Warriors (A), Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H)

Worth noting: Against teams currently in the top 8 this year, Dogs have played 7 and won 2. 3 of their 5 remaining are against top 8 teams.

 

6. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (28 points, +29)

Predicted finish: 8th

Remaining games: Broncos (H), Raiders (H), bye, Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)

One of my first rules in tipping comps was: Never tip the Cows in any game that really matters. I'll give them 2 wins + bye and the last round v. Dogs should determine 5th and 6th places.

 

7. MANLY SEA EAGLES (27 points, +93)

Predicted finish: 5th

Remaining games: Raiders (A), Warriors (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (A), Sharks (H)

If I give them 3 wins they reach 33 and probably finish 7th.

 

8. ST. GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (26 points, -90)

Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), Titans (H), Sharks (H), Eels (A), Raiders (H)

Again, I can't see them fixing their -90 points differential. If I give them the wins against Titans, Eels and Raiders, that's the magic 32 points they need to finish 8th

 

9. DOLPHINS  (24 points, +33)

Remaining games:  Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Storm (A), Broncos (H), Knights (A)

I'm not sure the Dolphins can reach 32. They should beat Warriors, Broncos and Knights. Their biggest assets are the unconvincing form of the teams around them and their superior +/- compared to the teams below them.

One problem with the Phins is they've only played 6 games this year against teams in the top 8. (and won 3)

 

10. CANBERRA RAIDERS (24 points, -75)

Remaining games: Manly (H), Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (A), Dragons (A)

Might only get one win, against the Dargons. Also I can't see where they would repair their +/- which they'd need if they finish on equal points with the aquatic mammals.

 

11. GOLD COAST TITANS (22 points, -54)

Remaining games: Sharks (H), Dragons (A), Roosters (H), Knights (A), Panthers (A)

I can't see them winning away games against Chooks and Panthers. Winning the other 3 only takes them to 28 points. Probably overtake the Raiders and finish 10th

 

12. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (22 points, -105)

Remaining games: Tigers (H), Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Dolphins (H)

As I said above, 30 points might be enough but their +/- would hurt them. They would need upset wins aginst Dolphins or Sharks to reach any higher.

 

13. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (21 points, -32)

Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Manly (A), Bulldogs (H), Sharks (A), Bye

I have questions over Cronulla and Dolphins so they could be 2 wins for NZers but, throw in the bye and the Parra game and that still only gets them to 29 points.

 

These next two are only here because of my theory that a team could reach 8th with 30 points. After Round 23 I expect 6 teams to have reached 30 points and both Bronx and Bunnies to lose so even this highly-theoretical window will close. 

14. BRISBANE BRONCOS (20 points, -28)

Remaining games: Cowboys (A), bye, Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Storm (H)

I might tip them against Parra and Bellamy might rest half his team for the final round but they only need to lose 2 games and they're officially gone.

 

15. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (20 points, -124)

Remaining games: Storm (H), Tigers (A), Knights (H), Panthers (A), Roosters (H)

In theory, they win all 6 and score a couple to 40-point wins to fix their +/-. In reality, no.

[Farmduck]

At the top, I expect Storm to win 4 and finish on 44 points, Panthers win 4 and land on 42. So it comes down to the Storm/Panthers game in Round 24. If Storm win that they'll finish on top. If Penrith wins they could finish on top. Panthers' +/- is currently only 5 points better than Storm so both teams need to thump someone. They both play the Bunnies so the score in those games might determine the Minor Premiership winner.

5 teams have already reached 30 points and the Cows are on 28 with a bye up their sleeve. I still think it's possible that the 8th team will only reach 30

I can't see any team below the Raiders reaching the finals and I don't think Raiders can overtake St George.

 

3. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (32 points,  +219)

Parra, Titans, Raiders, Souths

Roosters' only losses this year have been against other top 8 teams and they don't play any of those before the finals. Should win all 4 and finish 3rd on 40 points.

 

4. CRONULLA  (32 points +175)

Knights, St George, Warriors, Manly

 

5. CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (30 points, +110)

Predicted finish: 5th

Remaining games: Dolphins (H), Warriors (A), Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H)

Should win at least 2 to solidify 6th spot with 34 points. The game against Manly might be a playoff for 5th.

 

6. MANLY SEA EAGLES (29 points, +115)

Predicted finish: 6th

Remaining games:  Warriors (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (A), Sharks (H)

If I give them 2 wins they reach 33 and probably finish 7th.

 

7. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (28 points, +5)

Predicted finish: 7th

Remaining games: Raiders (H), bye, Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)

It's difficult to tip the Cows. They've won 5/8 against other current top 8 teams.

One win should guarantee 7th because their +/- is 30 points better than the Dolphins, the team most likely to snag 8th. Even against Broncos and Knights I can't see the Dolphins getting big wins.

 

8. DOLPHINS  (26 points, +35)

Remaining games:  Bulldogs (A), Storm (A), Broncos (H), Knights (A)

I'm not sure the Dolphins can reach 32. They should beat Broncos and Knights. Their biggest assets are the unconvincing form of the teams around them and their superior +/- compared to the teams below them.

One problem with the Phins is they've only played 6 games this year against teams in the top 8. (and won 3) 

 

9. ST. GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (26 points, -108)

Remaining games: Titans (H), Sharks (H), Eels (A), Raiders (H)

Again, I can't see them fixing their -90 points differential. If I give them the wins against Titans, Eels and Raiders, that's the magic 32 points they need to finish 8th

 

10. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (24 points, -89)

Remaining games: Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Dolphins (H)

As I said above, 30 points might be enough but their +/- would hurt them. They would need upset wins aginst Dolphins or Sharks to reach any higher.

 

11. CANBERRA RAIDERS (24 points, -97)

Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (A), Dragons (A)

I think they're gone but if they somehow managed to beat the Cows this week they might jump up to 9th depending on other results. This would be false hope as they won't beat the Chooks AND Panthers, which is what they'll need.

 

The next 2 are only here because it's still posible for a team to squeak into the finals on 30 points and the teams directly above them have been unconvincing.

12. BRISBANE BRONCOS (22 points, -4)

Remaining games:  bye, Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Storm (H)

With the bye guaranteeing they'll reach 24 points this week and their superior +/- the Horsies could jump 2 spots this round.

 

13. GOLD COAST TITANS (22 points, -98)

Remaining games: Dragons (A), Roosters (H), Knights (A), Panthers (A)

Need to hope nobody reaches 32 points (nobody among the current teams 7-12.) Teams 7-12 all play at least one other member of this sub-group so they can't all win all their games.

 

[DavidM]

I think the dragons will just miss out 

[Anita Bath]

2 hours ago, DavidM said:

I think the dragons will just miss out 

but who to?
 

Dolphins or Knights?

[The Future is League]

From a personal point of view i would love the Broncos and the Dolphins to make the play offs.

[DavidM]

7 minutes ago, Anita Bath said:

but who to?
 

Dolphins or Knights?

Dolphins on for and  against 

[Anita Bath]

4 hours ago, The Future is League said:

From a personal point of view i would love the Broncos and the Dolphins to make the play offs.

They play each other and both play the storm so you will be disappointed.

[The Future is League]

17 hours ago, Anita Bath said:

They play each other and both play the storm so you will be disappointed.

Yes sadly i will

[Anita Bath]

I will be sharing your disappointment. Lets face it, it been one godawful season for Queensland RL. At least Tweed Heads wont be winning the QRL….that would be the final straw for. NSW team to be the best in Queensland!

[Farmduck]

At the top, I expect Storm to win 3 and finish on 46 points, Panthers win 3 and land on 42.  

7 teams have already reached 30 points and the Cows are on 30 with a bye up their sleeve. I still think it's possible that the 8th team will only reach 30

 

3. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (34 points,  +243)

Titans, Raiders, Souths

Roosters' only losses this year have been against other top 8 teams and they don't play any of those before the finals. Should win all 3 and finish 3rd on 40 points.

 

4. CRONULLA  (34 points +176)

St George, Warriors, Manly

Probably should have done much better against the Knights but they had a few players out. Safe in the finals but no GF this year.

 

5. CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (32 points, +130)

Predicted finish: 5th

Remaining games:  Warriors (A), Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H)

Should win at least 2 to solidify 6th spot with 34 points. The game against Manly might be a playoff for 5th.

 

6. MANLY SEA EAGLES (31 points, +129)

Predicted finish: 6th

Remaining games: Tigers (A), Bulldogs (A), Sharks (H)

If I give them 2 wins they reach 33 and probably finish 7th.

 

7. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (30 points, +43)

Predicted finish: 7th

Remaining games: bye, Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)

It's difficult to tip the Cows. They've won 5/8 against other current top 8 teams.

One win should guarantee 7th because their +/- is 130 points better than St george, the team most likely to snag 8th. 

 

8. ST. GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (28 points, -92)

Remaining games: Sharks (H), Eels (A), Raiders (H)

Again, I can't see them fixing their -90 points differential. If I give them the wins against Eels and Raiders, that's the magic 32 points they need to finish 8th. Most likely scenario: they beat Eels and Raiders and become the 8th team on 32 points with their +/- irrelevant because Dolphins don't reach 32. 

 

9. DOLPHINS  (26 points, +15)

Remaining games: Storm (A), Broncos (H), Knights (A)

They might beat Broncos and Knights but I can't see them beating Storm in Melbourne. That would leave them on 30 points with St George possibly finishing on 32. On the positive, if St George lose 2 games, and Dolphins win 2/3 they have a much better +/- than the Dragons so they might squeak into 8th.

 

10. BRISBANE BRONCOS (24 points, -4)

Remaining games:  Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Storm (H)

Amazingly still technically alive but the bye for the Cows this week will give us at least 7 teams on 32 points or better - assuming a Manly win over Wests. St George seem capable of reaching 32 so that leaves nothing for the Horsies. They need:

- win all 3 games, AND

- St George lose at least 2/3, AND

- Dolphins lose at least 1, AND

- Broncos win by at least 6-10 in all 3 games (depending on Dolphins margins)

 

11. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (24 points, -90)

Remaining games: Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Dolphins (H)

Facing 3 games which are difficult to predict but their +/- means they would need at least 1 big win to cover a result where St George are stuck on 30 points and Dolphins and Broncos don't reach 30.

 

12. CANBERRA RAIDERS (24 points, -135)

Remaining games: Panthers (H), Roosters (A), Dragons (A)

One more week of the feintest hope. Even a Broncos-type scenario (as outlined above) wouldn't help them because their +/- is so bad and they won't beat the Chooks AND Panthers, which is what they'll need.

 

I crossed the Titans off this week because they would need to win all 3 remaining games, including wins against the Chooks and Panthers. Canberra have a similar run but they were 2 points ahead of Titans so slightly different.

 

 

[Graham]

Storm have wrapped up the minor premiership, while seven teams are now locked in for finals. But one top-eight spot is still up for grabs. See the live ladder and how finals week one could play out.

The Dolphins loss means that SEVEN teams are now locked into finals, although where those teams finish in the top-eight could still change.

Melbourne Storm - Minor Premiers 2024