Ashes Squad Predictions

[Dunbar]

11 minutes ago, arcticchris said:

Farnworth is the best back we have had since the days when we had Offiah/Newlove/Connolly/Robinson as the backline. Desperately hope he is fully fit now as he would be an automatic pick for every team in the world.

Kangaroos are strong as usual at 1/7/9 though if they go with Dylan Edwards that will be a boost for us.

Both teams look as weak as they have ever been this century in the pack. Not sure who this will end up favouring.

I was looking at the 2009 4 Nations final earlier today. Probably the most disappointed I have ever been as a League fan as there was a genuine feeling of expectation that this was our time... and it dissolved so quickly.

Our pack that day was 

Adrian Morley

Kevin Sinfield

James Graham

Jamie Peacock

Gareth Ellis

Sam Burgess

We always said we had a pack to win games. We never did, because the spine wins games of Rugby League.

What we need from England's forwards in this Ashes is energy, defence, athleticism and zero mistakes. Go forward will come from the outside backs and tries through the creativity of the spine.

[bobbruce]

On 06/10/2025 at 11:15, Worzel said:

Whatever happened to those lads? Seemed to have so much potential. 

I think they all got a few games Eric got a few games for Leeds Wally played a few for Wakefield. The other 2 did manage to get to and play in a final for Wigan and Hull respectively. None of them managed to play a full season and then just disappeared. Shame really as I think they could’ve been decent players. 

[hunsletgreenandgold]

1 hour ago, OMEGA said:

Will you really, , how very conceited of you

Watch the Wakefield game and tell me Lewis isn’t at fault for most of Wakefields try’s, he’s a liability in defence

Smith is a better defender and a better decision maker.

I’m no fan of Jake Connor but he’s been more reliable than Lewis this year

Williams is obviously a better player 

 

 

As promised.....

You're mixing up 6s and 7s role and responsibilities for a start. Lewis doesn't play the same organisational game Connor and Smith (both 7s) do. 

If you think Williams has been a better player than Mikey Lewis this season then I can't believe we watch the same sport. IF Williams gets the nod it's because Wane rewards past performances in an England (arguably Wigan) shirt with blind loyalty - file Williams with Bateman in that sense. 

I thought you was going to have a more nuanced argument to my agreeably conceited comment, but actually you are just wrong   

[hunsletgreenandgold]

48 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

We always said we had a pack to win games. We never did, because the spine wins games of Rugby League.

What we need from England's forwards in this Ashes is energy, defence, athleticism and zero mistakes. Go forward will come from the outside backs and tries through the creativity of the spine.

I think this statement epitomises entirely how the game has shifted in the past 10 years or so. Spine has always been the key factor, it always will, but now that comes with lethal go forward from anywhere on the field by outside backs (and to an extent back rowers) who can just open teams up. Forward pack still has it's job defensively but not so much relied upon to get you up the field as it once was. 

[StandOffHalf]

1 hour ago, Dunbar said:

I was looking at the 2009 4 Nations final earlier today. Probably the most disappointed I have ever been as a League fan as there was a genuine feeling of expectation that this was our time... and it dissolved so quickly.

Our pack that day was 

Adrian Morley

Kevin Sinfield

James Graham

Jamie Peacock

Gareth Ellis

Sam Burgess

We always said we had a pack to win games. We never did, because the spine wins games of Rugby League.

What we need from England's forwards in this Ashes is energy, defence, athleticism and zero mistakes. Go forward will come from the outside backs and tries through the creativity of the spine.

Once you get over your 40, go forward becomes more the responsibility of props I feel. Australia will contain someone like Lees. I'd much rather see Oledski or King among the prop rotation for the metres they offer.

Edited October 7 by StandOffHalf

[Dunbar]

2 minutes ago, StandOffHalf said:

Once you get over your 40, go forward becomes the responsibility of props I feel. Australia will contain someone like Lees. I'd much rather see Oledski or King among the prop rotation.

Yes, that's fair, the best props knock out 140/150 metres a game.

But I expect England to play an attritional style with field position and high energy / speed of defensive line the key.

If I had to choose between solid in defence or go forward, I would choose the former. The likes of Oledzki and Lees are very mobile defenders and should start, as they will have to contend with the bavk field carries of the Australian outside backs in a fast paced start to the game, with more attacking options like Thompson and McMeeken off the bench.

[StandOffHalf]

4 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

Yes, that's fair, the best props knock out 140/150 metres a game.

But I expect England to play an attritional style with field position and high energy / speed of defensive line the key.

If I had to choose between solid in defence or go forward, I would choose the former. The likes of Oledzki and Lees are very mobile defenders and should start, as they will have to contend with the bavk field carries of the Australian outside backs in a fast paced start to the game, with more attacking options like Thompson and McMeeken off the bench.

The line speed and mobility of a Lees is great, but I do have a nagging fear that his offence will largely be shut down and more responsibility will fall to the backs who will be swamped in England's half. England don't want an inexorable situation where Australia are always starting 10 metres further up than they are, because the strike will prove telling.

It's a balance, of course, but I think I would fall the other way than you. I would prefer a metre-eater over a line-speed prop.

[Dunbar]

5 minutes ago, StandOffHalf said:

The line speed and mobility of a Lees is great, but I do have a nagging fear that his offence will largely be shut down and more responsibility will fall to the backs who will be swamped in England's half. England don't want an inexorable situation where Australia are always starting 10 metres further up than they are, because the strike will prove telling.

It's a balance, of course, but I think I would fall the other way than you. I would prefer a metre-eater over a line-speed prop.

Where we start our sets and where they start theirs will be entirely down to the game management and kicking game of the halves and the speed of the defensive line.

It is why we always fell short when we thought we had better packs than the Aussies... they had genuine game management and tactical kicking in their halves and so we were always playing out of our half, negating the effectiveness of our pack.

It is why the long kicking game of Smith will be so crucial, as it has for the last 6 or so tests.

[Alan Robertson]

I don't know if it's been mentioned elsewhere on the forum but Coates and Lomax have both withdrawn from the Australia squad. Josh Addo-Carr and, another half-back, Mitchell Moses have been drafted in as replacements.

[StandOffHalf]

11 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

Where we start our sets and where they start theirs will be entirely down to the game management and kicking game of the halves and the speed of the defensive line.

It is why we always fell short when we thought we had better packs than the Aussies... they had genuine game management and tactical kicking in their halves and so we were always playing out of our half, negating the effectiveness of our pack.

It is why the long kicking game of Smith will be so crucial, as it has for the last 6 or so tests.

Long kicking is going to be key, for sure. I thought Smith had quite a good game against Leigh, even though Leigh had a lot of the territory.

[arcticchris]

1 hour ago, Dunbar said:

I was looking at the 2009 4 Nations final earlier today. Probably the most disappointed I have ever been as a League fan as there was a genuine feeling of expectation that this was our time... and it dissolved so quickly.

Our pack that day was 

Adrian Morley

Kevin Sinfield

James Graham

Jamie Peacock

Gareth Ellis

Sam Burgess

We always said we had a pack to win games. We never did, because the spine wins games of Rugby League.

What we need from England's forwards in this Ashes is energy, defence, athleticism and zero mistakes. Go forward will come from the outside backs and tries through the creativity of the spine.

Every single one of them a modern day legend of the game.

[UTK]

13 minutes ago, StandOffHalf said:

The line speed and mobility of a Lees is great, but I do have a nagging fear that his offence will largely be shut down and more responsibility will fall to the backs who will be swamped in England's half. England don't want an inexorable situation where Australia are always starting 10 metres further up than they are, because the strike will prove telling.

It's a balance, of course, but I think I would fall the other way than you. I would prefer a metre-eater over a line-speed prop.

Middle forward selection requires a good balance of both the archetypes you've correctly identified.

I had my doubts about Lees prior to the 2023 Tonga series but he proved me wrong. I believe that series should be a benchmark to inform Ashes selection, as the Tongan middle forwards are quite comparable to Australia's current squad - the likes of Addin Fonua-Blake, Keaon Koloamatangi (now a Kangaroo), Mo Fotuaika and Felise Kaufusi were all either Origin players or among the best forwards in the NRL at that time.

Admittedly, Lees effectiveness with the ball against Tonga wasn't special - this improved in the Samoa series but I place less weight on those performances because Samoan middle depth was quite limited.

Crucially, Lees was a defensive rock against the much larger Tongan pack and was the cornerstone of England's linespeed/kick pressure. Lees' defensive stats for those matches are as follows - he topped Englands tackle count for both matches.

• Game 1: 41 minutes, 39 tackles with zero missed.
• Game 2: 55 minutes, 39 tackles with two missed.

For mine Lees is the Prop that does all the tough and unexciting work that nobody wants to do, setting defensive standards for the rest of the pack and making all the 1% plays that excite coaches. Taking this role frees your other middles up to offer more strike - hence why Lees was a good pairing with Tom Burgess, someone less likely to make 40 tackles but who will provide consistently effective carries and might push an offload.

 

[StandOffHalf]

10 minutes ago, UTK said:

Middle forward selection requires a good balance of both the archetypes you've correctly identified.

I had my doubts about Lees prior to the 2023 Tonga series but he proved me wrong. I believe that series should be a benchmark to inform Ashes selection, as the Tongan middle forwards are quite comparable to Australia's current squad - the likes of Addin Fonua-Blake, Keaon Koloamatangi (now a Kangaroo), Mo Fotuaika and Felise Kaufusi were all either Origin players or among the best forwards in the NRL at that time.

Admittedly, Lees effectiveness with the ball against Tonga wasn't special - this improved in the Samoa series but I place less weight on those performances because Samoan middle depth was quite limited.

Crucially, Lees was a defensive rock against the much larger Tongan pack and was the cornerstone of England's linespeed/kick pressure. Lees' defensive stats for those matches are as follows - he topped Englands tackle count for both matches.

• Game 1: 41 minutes, 39 tackles with zero missed.
• Game 2: 55 minutes, 39 tackles with two missed.

For mine Lees is the Prop that does all the tough and unexciting work that nobody wants to do, setting defensive standards for the rest of the pack and making all the 1% plays that excite coaches. Taking this role frees your other middles up to offer more strike - hence why Lees was a good pairing with Tom Burgess, someone less likely to make 40 tackles but who will provide consistently effective carries and might push an offload.

 

Thanks for those stats. I can certainly see why he's a player that Wane loves.

[George Watt]

49 minutes ago, Alan Robertson said:

I don't know if it's been mentioned elsewhere on the forum but Coates and Lomax have both withdrawn from the Australia squad. Josh Addo-Carr and, another half-back, Mitchell Moses have been drafted in as replacements.

Replacements are Bradman Best (centre )and Addo Carr-   Moses was in original squad.

[Hopie]

So is the Man of Steel not consistent enough for the England coach?

[Alan Robertson]

20 minutes ago, George Watt said:

Replacements are Bradman Best (centre )and Addo Carr-   Moses was in original squad.

Thanks, you're correct.

 

I read the squad from the summary at the end of this article - which doesn't list Best, (at this point). It might be amended by the time someone clicks on the link:

https://wwos.nine.com.au/nrl/news-2025-kangaroos-squad-named-ashes-tour-england-kevin-walters-mark-nawaqanitawase-gehamat-shibasaki/be1884e0-7dbb-4bc9-9b87-aacd3440296c

Regarding Moses, I had forgotten that he was included in the named squad (last week, I saw a 'leaked squad' which didn't include him).

Over the last week, I've seen 'expected' 22, 23 and 24-man squads. Walters, originally, said there'd be 22 players in the final squad. 

With this post-announcement-revision, clearly, I hadn't kept up with everything.

 

 

[NRLandSL]

1 hour ago, UTK said:

Middle forward selection requires a good balance of both the archetypes you've correctly identified.

I had my doubts about Lees prior to the 2023 Tonga series but he proved me wrong. I believe that series should be a benchmark to inform Ashes selection, as the Tongan middle forwards are quite comparable to Australia's current squad - the likes of Addin Fonua-Blake, Keaon Koloamatangi (now a Kangaroo), Mo Fotuaika and Felise Kaufusi were all either Origin players or among the best forwards in the NRL at that time.

Admittedly, Lees effectiveness with the ball against Tonga wasn't special - this improved in the Samoa series but I place less weight on those performances because Samoan middle depth was quite limited.

Crucially, Lees was a defensive rock against the much larger Tongan pack and was the cornerstone of England's linespeed/kick pressure. Lees' defensive stats for those matches are as follows - he topped Englands tackle count for both matches.

• Game 1: 41 minutes, 39 tackles with zero missed.
• Game 2: 55 minutes, 39 tackles with two missed.

For mine Lees is the Prop that does all the tough and unexciting work that nobody wants to do, setting defensive standards for the rest of the pack and making all the 1% plays that excite coaches. Taking this role frees your other middles up to offer more strike - hence why Lees was a good pairing with Tom Burgess, someone less likely to make 40 tackles but who will provide consistently effective carries and might push an offload.

 

I agree about Lees, certainly a hard worker and strong defender. He is able to win the ruck consistently and lead the defensive line. He is especially important coming on towards the end of the first half when the middles tire out.

McMeeken and Thompson should be no brainers to start in my opinion. They are definitely Englands two best props and have had strong years (especially McMeeken). They’re strong and aggressive and will be key for the opening 15 of every game. Morgan Knowles is 13 no doubt, I would have been for him starting even if Radley was in. He is a world class lock, very hard worker and an amazing defender.

As for the bench I think Lees has to be there, partnered by either Havard or Oledzki (Both of whom should make the squad). I would also like to see Smithies included in the squad, he is such a safe option and an elite defender.

[George Watt]

1 hour ago, Alan Robertson said:

Thanks, you're correct.

 

I read the squad from the summary at the end of this article - which doesn't list Best, (at this point). It might be amended by the time someone clicks on the link:

https://wwos.nine.com.au/nrl/news-2025-kangaroos-squad-named-ashes-tour-england-kevin-walters-mark-nawaqanitawase-gehamat-shibasaki/be1884e0-7dbb-4bc9-9b87-aacd3440296c

Regarding Moses, I had forgotten that he was included in the named squad (last week, I saw a 'leaked squad' which didn't include him).

Over the last week, I've seen 'expected' 22, 23 and 24-man squads. Walters, originally, said there'd be 22 players in the final squad. 

With this post-announcement-revision, clearly, I hadn't kept up with everything.

 

 

Can understand your problem. Originally Best pulled out of consideration then made himself available again and Walters did talk about his 22 person squad plus there was speculation before the official squad was named. Hopefully it is all settled now!

[Alan Robertson]

1 hour ago, George Watt said:

Can understand your problem. Originally Best pulled out of consideration then made himself available again and Walters did talk about his 22 person squad plus there was speculation before the official squad was named. Hopefully it is all settled now!

Let's hope so.

[Dunbar]

6 hours ago, NRLandSL said:

I agree about Lees, certainly a hard worker and strong defender. He is able to win the ruck consistently and lead the defensive line. He is especially important coming on towards the end of the first half when the middles tire out.

McMeeken and Thompson should be no brainers to start in my opinion. They are definitely Englands two best props and have had strong years (especially McMeeken). They’re strong and aggressive and will be key for the opening 15 of every game. Morgan Knowles is 13 no doubt, I would have been for him starting even if Radley was in. He is a world class lock, very hard worker and an amazing defender.

As for the bench I think Lees has to be there, partnered by either Havard or Oledzki (Both of whom should make the squad). I would also like to see Smithies included in the squad, he is such a safe option and an elite defender.

Thompson should not start, technically his defence is not great and Wane will want to start the game with his best defensive middles.

Thompson adds something off the bench with his carries and leg speed.

Edited October 8 by Dunbar

[Alan Robertson]

2 hours ago, Dunbar said:

Thompson should not start, technically his defence is not great and Wane will want to start the game with his best defensive middles.

Thompson adds something off the bench with his carries and left speed.

I agree, aspects of Thompson's defence are not up to the required standard, when the opponents are clinical enough to capitalise on technical inadequacies. 

[Dunbar]

10 hours ago, arcticchris said:

Every single one of them a modern day legend of the game.

They are. Which shows that you don't win games by having the best pack.

The Kangaroo spine on that day was Slater, Lockyer, Thurston and Smith. They destroyed us.

[Worzel]

13 hours ago, OMEGA said:

Will you really, , how very conceited of you

Watch the Wakefield game and tell me Lewis isn’t at fault for most of Wakefields try’s, he’s a liability in defence

Smith is a better defender and a better decision maker.

I’m no fan of Jake Connor but he’s been more reliable than Lewis this year

Williams is obviously a better player 

Jake Connor is a scrum half. Harry Smith is a scrum half. On the other hand Mikey Lewis is a stand off, playing a completely different role in the team. I mean, how hard is this stuff to understand?

Lewis was carrying a shoulder injury for the Wakefield game, the line breaks you're referring to were because his centre and his outside forward left him defending two spots with one arm, in a phase of the season when Rovers left-edge defence was disrupted for several weeks with Burgess and Gildart injured at various points so it was a bag of spare parts. I wouldn't be making my selection decisions on such moments.

[EagleEyePie]

3 hours ago, Alan Robertson said:

I agree, aspects of Thompson's defence are not up to the required standard, when the opponents are clinical enough to capitalise on technical inadequacies. 

I don't think Thompson is as bad as you make out. He's been the cornerstone of Wigan's defence over the last couple of years and if he was weak defensively we'd never have had so much success given the big minutes he plays when fully fit.

Wigan's approach has always been rock solid defence from the middles to open a game and there's a reason Thompson is a guaranteed starter for us.

The big difference between McMeeken and Thompson is the former is in much better form. If you want a player to start and play big minutes with a high work rate you go for McMeeken because he's been doing that consistently this year, whereas Thompson has struggled with injury and is only recently starting to get his attacking game up to the required standard.

[OMEGA]

1 hour ago, Worzel said:

Jake Connor is a scrum half. Harry Smith is a scrum half. On the other hand Mikey Lewis is a stand off, playing a completely different role in the team. I mean, how hard is this stuff to understand?

Lewis was carrying a shoulder injury for the Wakefield game, the line breaks you're referring to were because his centre and his outside forward left him defending two spots with one arm, in a phase of the season when Rovers left-edge defence was disrupted for several weeks with Burgess and Gildart injured at various points so it was a bag of spare parts. I wouldn't be making my selection decisions on such moments.

Give me a break, unless a coach is specifically asking his 6 to play as a traditional stand off there are 2 half backs on the field playing left and right and occasionally combining. That said Lewis plays like a 7 not a 6 even in the old traditional sense.