The NRL Finals - Week 1 Thread

[THE RED ROOSTER]

NRL finals Week1 and your about to witness four intense matches, three of which are very difficult to call and the one that I can call could easily go the other way and it’s all on SKY.

Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bulldogs

Melbourne with three big names out Tyran Wishart has the unenviable task of replacing Jahrome Hughes (out for the season). Nick Meaney replacing Ryan Papenhuyzen (concussion) at fullback, with Stefano Utoikamanu replacing the self-inflicted wound that is Nelson Asafa-Solomona banned for three weeks.

Winger Marcelo Montoya is out replaced by Jethro Rinakama, and Bronson Xerri (concussion) replaced in the centres by Blake Wilson Jacob Kiraz is in the 23-man squad but given that the Dogs will have a second bite of the cherry regardless Will Cameron Ciraldo risk him?

On the face of it two sides on the crest of a slump with Melbourne conceding an unheard of 70 points in their last 1.5 Matches and the Dogs following up an unimpressive win over Penrith’s NSW Cup side with a performance in attack that looked like a blunt instrument in a defeat to the Sharks.

Trouble in the Kennel though with fan favourite Reed Mahoney (North Queensland 2026) not only replaced by Bailey Hayward as Hooker but now bumped off the bench for Toby Sexton (Catalans Dragons 2026) who has apparently been playing hooker in the NSW cup with unattributed comments about Mahoney being “a bad communicator” to the press this after Stephen Crichton undiplomatically defended Lachlan Galvin by stating he was an “upgrade” over Toby Sexton.

Arguments for Melbourne

• They are at home in Victoria and Craig Bellamy questioned the desire of the Melbourne players in the Brisbane game. There looking for a response.
•  Curiously for a side that is often regarded as forward lite. The Storm has the edge in the forwards and will attack the real weakness of the Dogs up the middle of the field creating a platform for Harry Grant and Cameron Munster.
• Dogs disarray in public is not good for team morale or cohesion.

Arguments against Melbourne

•  In the last game between the Storm and the Dogs, though the Storm won they had to fend off a second half comeback from the Dogs who could consider themselves unlucky to lose.
•  Melbourne’s defence is suspect these days and the storm have ben switching off in the second half of recent matches.
• Maybe this is the game the Burton, Galvin combo finally clicks.

Verdict – Coin toss game but I cannot believe the Storm defence will not turn up for the third week running.

New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers

For the Wahs, Centre Rocco Berry is out for the season Kurt Capewell shifts from the forwards to centre. Wayde Egan is back as hooker and Jackson ford back in the forwards.

For the Penny Panthers the underrated hooker Mitch Kenny is out injured and replaced by Luke Somerton.

The Bookies make the Penny Panthers overwhelming favourites for this game.

Arguments for the Warriors

• ·They are playing at home across the ditch in front of a partizan crowd.
• ·They have been written off so they can play without expectation and the showing of “nuff respect” as mentioned by Andrew Webster in the press conference posts last week’s game at Manly should fire them up.
• Dylan Edwards is not having a great season for the Penny Panthers who themselves while winning 10 of their last 13 are not the dominant force of the past few seasons.

Arguments against The Warriors

•  It needs to be remembered that after playing in Perth, Penrith rested their Origin players and yet still won at Mount Smart.
• If league tables do not lie, nor does points differential and the Wahs have not had a great point differential all season. Maybe they were always in a false position.
• The Wahs miss Luke Metcalf, but the loss of one playmaker should not have that deep an impact. This should fraise queries about depth ion the squad.

The game may hinge on the first 20 minutes, if the Wahs can get a lead and avoid being blown out by the Panthers then the longer the game goes on the Kiwi crowd will become a factor.

Verdict - Penrith

Cronulla Sharks v Sydney Roosters

For the Sharks, Braydon Trindall returns in the halves, with Daniel Atkinson dropping to the bench. Roosters unchanged

Two sides with a lot of similarities, who have split the series this year, Roosters triumph in Gosford with a depleted side yet lose to the Sharks with a more full-strength outfit. Both sides were perceived to have a weakness against the Panthers and Storm and have beaten these opponents this year Sharks (Melbourne) and Roosters (Penrith and Melbourne away). Bot sides also have the ability to underwhelm even during a winning streak, Cronula at SGI and Roosters at Eels.

Arguments for The Sharkies

• They are playing at Shark Park, with a membership base that is greater than the ground capacity. should be all home support.
• The Sharks mental block has come against Melbourne and Penrith not against the Roosters.
• Sam Walker is a fragile half, when injured early against the Eels. The Roosters lost creativity in their play without him especially if Sandon Smith is not on the bench.

Arguments against The Sharkies

• Stat – Cronulla have lost the last seven game they have played in round 1 of the playoffs.
• The Roosters side is the more impressive on paper with the five origin players.
•  Roosters have also been playing sudden death football for a number of weeks now unlike the Sharks who were secure in the top 8 if not the top 4.

This is a very difficult game to pick as an elimination game and could well end up decided by the golden point. The key to the game is which forward pack can provide a platform for the half back combo.

Verdict – Close to call

Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos

Ricky’s Returning Raiders face off against the Broncos with all 10 rested players returning to the starting XIII.

For Brisbane Gehamat Shibasaki has been recalled after his disciplinary breach, pushing Deine Mariner to the wing, 

I do recall being at the game where the Bronx towelled the Roosters in the first game of the season, they then went to the Capital and were in turn walloped by the Raiders.

This is a very evenly matched game in that between Haas and Carrigan and Papali’i and Tapine there is no obvious forward advantage, and both sides have youth and speed on the wing.

There is added spice to the game with some skullduggery in The Courier Mail about “bus gate” where before the aforementioned Broncos game where the Broncos bus was locked out of GIO stadium and their players had to walk into the ground along with the Raiders fans. The Broncos brought in the NRL; s integrity unit over this. Now it has resurfaced months later in Queensland with Michael Maguire who left Canberra under a cloud, claiming this leak is an attempt to frame him by Canberra.

Arguments for The Raiders

• They are playing at home in the capital in front of an ebullient crowd.
• They have youth on their side, and they are playing without fear or expectation.
• The Bronx are reliably unreliable and given that the “rockstars” have earned a second “bite of the cherry” might they fail to reach the heights of last week.
•  There is a doubt over the fitness of Reece Walsh, and he is key for the Bronx in the absence of Eza Mann and Adam Reynolds.

Arguments against The Raiders

• The Minor Premiers have won a lot of games this season against the main contenders by the barest of margins. Perhaps they could begin to lose in a similar manner.
• Having rested 10 players last week Canberra could come into this game cold. Brisbane on other hand have been playing elimination football for the past few weeks to get to fourth spot.
• The Broncos have more origin players, even if this is not their first choice XIII and, on their day, can mix it with the best the BRL has to offer.

Again, this is a game where the tone can be set early on. Being away from home I do think though that’s it’s more important for the Broncos to score first and get ahead on the game. that said when I have seen their first choice XIII recently the Raiders have tightened up defensively and can score off repeat sets very quickly if behand.

Verdict – Coin Flip but home advantage may count here.

 

 

[Irish Saint]

Good morning all. Vossy, Cooper Cronk and Greg Alexander on the call

Edited September 12 by Irish Saint

[Irish Saint]

Vossy states final round league we are diwj to 8 and after this game we will still have 8 

[Futtocks]

Kikau down hurt after less than 2 minutes!

[Irish Saint]

Storm kicked off.

Kikau down for Bulldogs inside opening minute stray elbow.

Edited September 12 by Irish Saint

[Futtocks]

He's off, looking very groggy.

[Irish Saint]

Kikau leaving the field.

[Irish Saint]

Personally, I feel Burton'd bombs are Bulldogs best chance of victory.

[Irish Saint]

Katoa with first try after set restart gave them the impetus.

Storm 4-0 ktc

[Irish Saint]

Meaney adds the 2

Storm 6-0 5 minutes gone.

[Irish Saint]

Doggies error in good attacking position after Storm's  Warbrick fumbles then a penalty against Stefano and finally a set restart.

[Futtocks]

Crichton looking wobbly now.

[Irish Saint]

Kiraz off load error gives Storm good starting position.

Crichton now limping for Bulldogs.

[Irish Saint]

Kikau cleared off eye socket damage.

[Irish Saint]

Pezet with try saving tackle on Burton.

[DoubleD]

Pretty frantic, scrappy game. Lack of composure from both sides. 

Burton bombed a try there, looked in 2 minds over what to do

[Irish Saint]

Next play Bulldogs lose the ball.

[Irish Saint]

Kukau back with one eye closing rapidly.

[Futtocks]

Just now, Irish Saint said:

Kukau back with one eye closing rapidly.

But Crichton off.

[Irish Saint]

Crichton limping badly but wants to be involved in everything.

[Irish Saint]

Sexton on for Crichton

[DoubleD]

Just now, Irish Saint said:

Sexton on for Crichton

Inspired substitution

[Irish Saint]

Is that a try for Sexton?Up as no trybut bunker states ball came off the knee.

This will be 6 all.

[Irish Saint]

Scores level after 21 minutes.

[Futtocks]

A head clash and Chan's claret has been uncorked.