State of Origin 2026

[marklaspalmas]

It's that time of year again when the world's biggest RL competition gets to take a back seat to the money-making headline-grabbing juggernaut representative series that is State of Origin.

SOO is getting on for 50 years old, is full of history and legend. Players seem as keen as ever to be involved, referring to it as the 'pinnacle of the game' and the highlight of their careers. The fans love it, packed crowds wherever it's played.

For the last few weeks just about everything I've watched in the NRL has been book-ended by Origin speculation, or in-game references to players' chances, and the customary "oh no, he's picked up a knock, is he out of Origin?". Every time I hear it, I feel it's disrespectful to the season long competition, and devalues the main product of the sport in Australia.

I'm here to say this. The NRL have to start adopting the mindset the State Of Origin's days are numbered and think about when they're going to dump it. Why? The NRL should be too big for two states playing a rep series mid season detracts from the competition for a number of weeks. The NRL should be aiming to be too big to bother with SOO.

The game's organisers in Australia have spent a lot of time and money building the sport. Although we all know the majority of players play their junior rugby in NSW and QND we will have a situation in 2028 when only 14 of 19 clubs are based in those two states.

The NRL have also invested time and money building up Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, PNG, etc as nations capable of competing with Australia and NZ. The percentage of players from Pacific islands will only increase in future. The number of English players in the NRL too.

This growth has been so successful that the SOO is now looking to effectively incorporate Heritage players in the series. At the end of the day though, only 30 odd players are involved. Compared to the end of season internationals which are building in size and prestige, that's a small number of rep players. The accent has to shift away from state rugby to international rugby.

I'm not suggesting that SOO be binned for 2027. But it has to go soon, or it will hamper the NRL's growth and branding. 

[StandOffHalf]

SOO isn't the same without the biff. I've often found it soulless and uninvolving over recent seasons. I did enjoy Cam Munster's showing last year though.

[M j M]

2 hours ago, marklaspalmas said:

I'm not suggesting that SOO be binned for 2027. But it has to go soon, or it will hamper the NRL's growth and branding. 

You think that Australia's biggest sporting event needs to be binned?

[sigesige00]

27 minutes ago, M j M said:

You think that Australia's biggest sporting event needs to be binned?

3 games are too much.  2 games are enough.

[marklaspalmas]

46 minutes ago, M j M said:

You think that Australia's biggest sporting event needs to be binned?

Yes. It's quite clear that the NRL is positioning itself to be much much more than a domestic Australian competition. It stands to reason that NRL clubs in NZ, PNG, England, Las Vegas wherever will have very limited interest in NSW state v QLD state. 

[Click]

7 minutes ago, marklaspalmas said:

Yes. It's quite clear that the NRL is positioning itself to be much much more than a domestic Australian competition. It stands to reason that NRL clubs in NZ, PNG, England, Las Vegas wherever will have very limited interest in NSW state v QLD state. 

The majority of the teams still come from NSW or QLD though.

I can't even understand the logic of how getting rid of what is one of Australia's most watched sporting events somehow helps the NRL grow.

[marklaspalmas]

22 minutes ago, Click said:

The majority of the teams still come from NSW or QLD though.

I can't even understand the logic of how getting rid of what is one of Australia's most watched sporting events somehow helps the NRL grow.

The growth of the NRL isn't really connected to SOO. It's to do with NRL club expansion into new territory, WA, NZ, PNG the USA and the UK at the moment, as well as the Pacific Islands. 

SOO has been great, but will naturally no longer be the big draw it has been in the past as the competition has become already bigger than two states and will only continue to get bigger. SOO will become less relevant. The NRL will plug it much less and then bin it.

[Click]

44 minutes ago, marklaspalmas said:

The growth of the NRL isn't really connected to SOO. It's to do with NRL club expansion into new territory, WA, NZ, PNG the USA and the UK at the moment, as well as the Pacific Islands. 

SOO has been great, but will naturally no longer be the big draw it has been in the past as the competition has become already bigger than two states and will only continue to get bigger. SOO will become less relevant. The NRL will plug it much less and then bin it.

And if SOO does become less relevant then it won't be front and centre like it is currently.

Binning it off when it gets millions of viewers, gets full stadiums and is an NRL product just seems bizarre.

[Dunbar]

While I don’t think the 3 game State of Origin series is going away any time soon, I am sure they will be looking to see how its impact on the regular NRL season can be reduced. 

Between rounds 12 and 19, there are 3 rounds with 7 bye teams and 3 rounds with 3 bye teams. That is a pretty big impact on the available TV games for 6 rounds of a 27 round competition. Especially when they will be seeking to sell the rights to these games to a wider international audience.

With an increased number of teams in the competition, you would expect the SOO squads to have fewer players from each side, so they could think about eliminating some of these bye's.

[M j M]

The thing is Origin is pulling in viewers and growing interest in these other countries. It's not as if people aren't hooked by it there, they'll be the biggest rating games of the year alongside the Grand Final.

[Damien]

SOO ain't going anywhere when it is so valuable in terms of the TV deal.

[marklaspalmas]

25 minutes ago, M j M said:

The thing is Origin is pulling in viewers and growing interest in these other countries. It's not as if people aren't hooked by it there, they'll be the biggest rating games of the year alongside the Grand Final.

True, but only because it's currently heavily promoted by the NRL. That'll wane as the NRL globalises

[marklaspalmas]

17 minutes ago, Damien said:

SOO ain't going anywhere when it is so valuable in terms of the TV deal.

As I said, not today, but within a few years it'll be much less relevant 

[marklaspalmas]

1 hour ago, Click said:

And if SOO does become less relevant then it won't be front and centre like it is currently.

Binning it off when it gets millions of viewers, gets full stadiums and is an NRL product just seems bizarre.

You've made the same point twice now, but you did read this, yeah?

6 hours ago, marklaspalmas said:

I'm not suggesting that SOO be binned for 2027. But it has to go soon, or it will hamper the NRL's growth and branding. 

It's disruptive to the prime product, which is the league season. At the moment it's lucrative and attractive, therefore worthwhile, inside Australia, to hold SOO. In five years time, if the NRLs expansion plans come to fruition, it will won't be.

SOO will be seen to be what it really is. A very parochial event.

[Dunbar]

36 minutes ago, M j M said:

The thing is Origin is pulling in viewers and growing interest in these other countries. It's not as if people aren't hooked by it there, they'll be the biggest rating games of the year alongside the Grand Final.

I think we significantly overestimate the draw of an inter-state Australian game outside of the Rugby League heartlands.

[bobbruce]

It just needs to be played over a 3 week block. Which would allow other internationals to go on as it’s happening. 

[The Rocket]

There was a time when I thought SOO had lost its` spark and was just an interruption to the competition and couldn`t wait for it to be over so that the competition would resume without any distraction. To the NRL`s credit they have seem to have been able to bring back its` former glory even if just to the point of it being a series between two supremely talented sides.

If as rumoured we are finally going to see the broadcast networks pay what the series is really worth as a ratings juggernaut then I would expect they will want their money`s worth and we may see the series promoted like never before and it won`t be going anywhere.

I do wonder in the mid to longer-term though if we do start to see the Kiwi`s (and other nations) regularly challenge and beat the Kangaroos whether then these series may eclipse SOO in profile and value and we may start to see a lessening of the attention on the Origin series to be replaced by mid-season international tournaments that will serve the same promotional and financial purpose. 

 

Edited May 15 by The Rocket

[M j M]

2 hours ago, Dunbar said:

I think we significantly overestimate the draw of an inter-state Australian game outside of the Rugby League heartlands.

I don't think so. Maybe in the UK but we know that Origin is the tool used to popularise Rugby League in other states and countries in the south Pacific region. It was Origin that was attracting huge crowds in Melbourne in the years before the Storm and in Perth before the Bears. It is Origin which is going to be an instant sell out in New Zealand. It's Origin which is a national obsession in PNG. It's Origin which each year attracts the most eyeballs to Rugby League on TV in these places. 

It might not be what some people would prefer to be the case - it would be theoretically preferable to advance internationals over an inter-state rivalry. But I'm afraid this is yet another thing which falls into the bucket of RL fans trying to diminish rather than celebrating what they have. 

 

[Sports Prophet]

If you look at the NRL’s biggest domestic competitor @marklaspalmas, the AFL - which coined the Origin concept - binned it years ago for the very reasons you have highlighted the NRL should drop theirs.

The AFL (and the players) would kill to have the clubs welcome back a mid season Origin. It is one of the AFL administration’s greatest ever self sabotage moments. Probably it’s greatest.

You can’t bin the SOO when pound for pound, it’s the highest valued sports commodity in the country and is a series which would be envied by any sports administration in the world.

Edited May 16 by Sports Prophet

[M j M]

AFL would absolutely kill to have something as big and as valuable as Origin. Their main problem is nobody cares; the state-defining, generational loathing that Queensland has for NSW is almost tangible; it makes State of Origin and is easily perceived by people who don't come from there. There is a lot to be said for something that authentic. 

[Copa]

9 hours ago, marklaspalmas said:

Yes. It's quite clear that the NRL is positioning itself to be much much more than a domestic Australian competition. It stands to reason that NRL clubs in NZ, PNG, England, Las Vegas wherever will have very limited interest in NSW state v QLD state. 

SOO is very popular in PNG and NZ.

Next year’s origin match in NZ will sell out almost immediately. It’s so popular in PNG that the PNG police have even suggested it not be broadcast live due to murders and other violence committed by fanatical PNG fans.

Those two countries can very successfully support origin and a club team.

Edited May 16 by Copa

[Douglas]

14 hours ago, marklaspalmas said:

It's that time of year again when the world's biggest RL competition gets to take a back seat to the money-making headline-grabbing juggernaut representative series that is State of Origin.

SOO is getting on for 50 years old, is full of history and legend. Players seem as keen as ever to be involved, referring to it as the 'pinnacle of the game' and the highlight of their careers. The fans love it, packed crowds wherever it's played.

For the last few weeks just about everything I've watched in the NRL has been book-ended by Origin speculation, or in-game references to players' chances, and the customary "oh no, he's picked up a knock, is he out of Origin?". Every time I hear it, I feel it's disrespectful to the season long competition, and devalues the main product of the sport in Australia.

I'm here to say this. The NRL have to start adopting the mindset the State Of Origin's days are numbered and think about when they're going to dump it. Why? The NRL should be too big for two states playing a rep series mid season detracts from the competition for a number of weeks. The NRL should be aiming to be too big to bother with SOO.

The game's organisers in Australia have spent a lot of time and money building the sport. Although we all know the majority of players play their junior rugby in NSW and QND we will have a situation in 2028 when only 14 of 19 clubs are based in those two states.

The NRL have also invested time and money building up Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, PNG, etc as nations capable of competing with Australia and NZ. The percentage of players from Pacific islands will only increase in future. The number of English players in the NRL too.

This growth has been so successful that the SOO is now looking to effectively incorporate Heritage players in the series. At the end of the day though, only 30 odd players are involved. Compared to the end of season internationals which are building in size and prestige, that's a small number of rep players. The accent has to shift away from state rugby to international rugby.

I'm not suggesting that SOO be binned for 2027. But it has to go soon, or it will hamper the NRL's growth and branding. 

I belong to a small but increasing minority that hate SOO.

[Douglas]

12 hours ago, M j M said:

You think that Australia's biggest sporting event needs to be binned?

Play it once a year.

[Douglas]

11 hours ago, sigesige00 said:

3 games are too much.  2 games are enough.

I’ll split the difference with 1 game.

[Dunbar]

5 hours ago, M j M said:

I don't think so. Maybe in the UK but we know that Origin is the tool used to popularise Rugby League in other states and countries in the south Pacific region. It was Origin that was attracting huge crowds in Melbourne in the years before the Storm and in Perth before the Bears. It is Origin which is going to be an instant sell out in New Zealand. It's Origin which is a national obsession in PNG. It's Origin which each year attracts the most eyeballs to Rugby League on TV in these places. 

It might not be what some people would prefer to be the case - it would be theoretically preferable to advance internationals over an inter-state rivalry. But I'm afraid this is yet another thing which falls into the bucket of RL fans trying to diminish rather than celebrating what they have. 

 

You don't comsider places like PNG and New Zealand to be Rugby League heartlands?

And sure, Australian cities like Melbourne and Perth have sold out but that is still Australia, where State of Origin is a blockbuster series with huge coverage, even in non heartland states. You can hardly know it doesn’t exist.

The only countries you have mentioned that I wouldn't call heartlands are the Pacific Islands and even that is debatable. 

Look, I am not trying to diminish anything, I am simply saying a series between New South Wales and Queensland does not have the draw that we think it does as people who grew up with the State of Origin mythos. Most people in the world probably couldn't name the states of Australia.

It doesn't have the volume of games that club sport does and it doesn't have the recognisable names of internationals. And unless you actually know the sport already, why would you assume it is any better than an international, surely the natural assumption would be the other way.

I just believe it is not the vehicle we should use to promote the sport more widely because it sits in a strange middle ground.