The NRL Round 23 Thread

[THE RED ROOSTER]

Business end of the season. and I would just like to start by pointing out how points differential will pan at present if there is a log jam of teams on the cusp of the magic 32 points to make the eight.

5             Dolphins             30 points + 90 points difference

6             Knights                28 Points + 60 points difference

7             Souths                 26 Points + 62 points difference

8             Bulldogs              26 Points – 44 points difference           

9             Cowboys             26 Points – 98 points difference

10           Sea Eagles         24 Points + 90 points difference

The size of your points difference matters, especially if you finish on the same number of points.

There are several games this week, that are tough to call but as a rule of thumb I would say to tipsters that sides that have something to play for tend to have that greater incentive to win,

Gold Coast Titans v North Queensland Cowboys (Thu)

Titans bring in Lachlan Ilias for the injured Zane Harrison in the halves. This could be a significant loss as Harrison is being talked about quite a lot in terms of the market for halves in the NRL and the 19-year-old clearly has made an impression even in a side that's season has been no more than promising in contrast to what has gone before.

The Cows bring in Kai O'Donnell  for Jeremiah Nanai in the second row and Griffin Neame returns from suspension into front row in place of the benched Thomas Mikaele, Reed Mahoney was not in the named side on Tuesday.

Two teams looking for a reaction after last week's defeats which were heavy in both cases if not unexpected. For the Gold Coast again it's a case of though progress has been made under Josh Hannay this year the Gold Coast Titans remain consistently inconsistent and although they've

As for the cows, an absolute spanking at home from the Roosters really was in many respects a “darkest day” in North Queensland's history and Todd Payton will be looking for a reaction in this game . The Cows need it because their current points difference is -90 and although they've got a reasonably comfortable run in, they really must attempt to amend their points differential over the next few weeks.

I expect a high scoring game umm and I do think that the Cows will prevail simply on the basis that they're the team with something to play for.

Tip – Cowboy

New Zealand Warriors  v Penrith Panthers (Fri) -SKY

Wahs Unchanged

Panthers bring in Izack Tago for the injured Casey Mclean at centre.

This game is being played at Mount Smart stadium in New Zealand across the ditch. it's a vital game for the Wahs in the sense that if you're going to win the premiership you have to beat the Panthers at some point and with Dylan Edwards still out for the Panthers and a fanatical home crowd behind them you could argue that this is their best shot .

I did think though last week that Jackson Edgar proved to be a very capable replacement for Dylan Edwards at fullback for the Panthers, I also think there are areas in the Wahs game that are open for exploitation umm notably the wingers under the high ball which I suspect Nathan Cleary will be targeting both sides on the 6th tackle with DWZ pretty shaky under the highball.

Another factor that will go against the wars in this game in my opinion is going to be the halves combination of Chanel Harris-Tevita and Te Maire Martin. I can understand why Andrew Webster is not picking Luke Metcalfe as he's off to the Dragons at the end of the season but I'm not exactly impressed by the creativity in the halves or the kicking game that they've got and that will give the Panthers the edge in this game as I think in terms of the forwards it's a pretty even contest.

Tip - Panther

Sydney Roosters v Canterbury Bulldogs– (Fri) -SKY

Some shuffling in the Rooster ranks with Billy Smith coming in on the wing  for the benched Tommy Talau, Lindsay Collins (bench) Salesi Foketi moves from the front row to the second in place of the benched Nat Butcher with  Spencer Leniu starting in the front row. A Rooster boost with  Lindsay Collins coming onto the bench.

Dogs Unchanged

A clash between two sides in form as this game is being played at Allianz stadium it would favour the Roosters. Another reason to favour the Roosters  is on the weapons that they have in attack as opposed to the weapons that the dogs have in attack. Both sides are quite capable of resolute defence but if you do go and look at the points differential for the Bulldogs which stands at a staggering -44 for a club in eighth spot in the premiership it illustrates perfectly the difficulties that the Dogs have had in converting possession into points on the field.

I don't think the Roosters have that problem though they are an inconsistent side if the Roosters can get an early substantial 18-point lead in the game then I don't think really that the Dogs will be able to live with them. Which will come as a great disappointment for the large number of Bulldog fans that no doubt will make the journey across Sydney stop

Tip – Rooster

Melbourne Strom v Manly Sea Eagles– (Sat)

Huge boost for the Storm with Cameron Munster returning to the halves in place of Tyran Wishart who moves to hooker in place of the benched Trent Toelau and Jack Howarth returns at centre for  Manaia Waitere . Notably Shawn Blore is on bench for this one.,

The Silvertails, fresh out of the bye week see the concussed Ben Trbojevic replaced by Corey Waddell in the second row, Brandon Wakeham replace Nicholas Lenaz at hooker and some shuffling with Toluta'u Koula moving from wing to centre replacing the benched Josh Felady,
Koula’s place on the wing taken by Blake Wilson) Simione Laiafi Comes into the front row from the bench with Ethan Bullemor making the reverse journey

Played at HBF park in Perth, in this game travel may well be a factor it's a 5-hour flight from Sydney to Perth and 4 hours in terms of flight time for the storm.

The storm have one of their triumvirate back in Cameron Munster who may well end up being a Perth Bear next year and while on the subject of bears, I couldn't help but laugh at hearing Craig Bellamy's response in a press conference last week when asked how he felt about the storm missing out on the playoffs this year “the grandkids have got a couple of teddy bears and I'm go going to home and I'm going to whack the s**t out of one of those teddy bears”.

Melbourne last week without any of the triumvirate we're actually in the game against the Bulldogs right until about 5 minutes from the end and it has to be said that it's quite good for Melbourne in the sense that a lot of their younger players, such as the young half Hayden Watson who's been signed until 2030, and we'll be partnering Cameron Munster in this game are gaining valuable game time experience towards the back end of this season. Another thing that should please Melbourne fans will be that the word is that Craig Bellamy will continue to coach in the 2027 season

As for the silvertails, they are without two of the turbos and are currently riding the crest of a slump, they are heavily favoured by the bookies going into this game but it's a very difficult game to pick and you'd have to ask the question whether they will travel well for this particular game. Manly certainly need to win all their remaining games to have a chance to get in the 8 which is a sad reversal as mid-season people were talking about the Sea Eagles being a top four team now it looks highly unlikely that there will be a top eight team

It's going to be a close encounter but I'm going to go with Melbourne to win this one and bring an end to the silvertails season whether this will raise any coaching doubts about Kieran Foran at Brookvale is another matter.

Tip – Storm

The Dolphins v Brisbane Broncos  (Sat) – SKY

Dolphins Unchanged

A couple of serious blows for the Bronx with the injured Adam Reynolds and Cory Paix replaced by Thomas Duffy and Bill Walters  in the halves and at hooker respectively. Xavier Willison moves from second row to front row in place of the benched Va'a Semu with , Jaiyden Hunt taking Willison’s spot in the second row. Options on the bench though with Gehamat Shibasaki, Jack Gosiewski and Hayze Perham.

This is the Derby that really isn't a Derby in the sense that a hell of a lot of people watching the Dolphins and Bronx tend to watch both teams and one of the sad things is that I have not been able to work out, due to my advanced years, to post the photograph that I took outside the Caxton pub of the three individuals walking down before the first Brisbane -Dolphins game this season which I was at who were wearing shirts which were split between the Dolphins and the Bronx. It really didn't feel like a Derby game it felt more like big brother versus little brother.

They may be out of the playoffs but the Bronx definitely need a win or two it was interesting that Katoni staggs in his post-match interview last week after the loss to the Knights also made reference to the ” rockstars” of the Brisbane side and it's certainly the case that it's been a spectacular fall in grace for what is the biggest club not just in Queensland but in Australian rugby league therefore I think the Bronx really do need a result.

Whether they will be able to get it against the Dolphins is another matter however as on paper the Dolphins are well placed to come home with a victory in this game although they did make a bit of a meal about playing against the Dragons at Wollongong last week. One other factor that needs to be borne in mind with the Dolphins is that rumours about contract signings come November the 1st when they have a lot of players who will be out of contract may be beginning to become a factor, and of course as we know the dolphins are a very inconsistent side that do have the ability to be on the end of a thrashing in them. Somehow, I don't think it will however occur in this game.

Tip - Dolphin

South Sydney v Paramatta Eels (Sat) – SKY

The cavalry arrives at Souths with the return of Tallis Duncan in for  Latrell Siegwalt at centre,
David Fifita returns to the second row with Keaon Koloamatangi moving to the front row in place of John Radel, and Cameron Murray back at lock in place of the benched Lachlan Hubner .

The Eels make a couple of changes bringing back Luca Moretti to the front row and moving  Jack Williams from front row to the second row) in place of the benched Kelma Tuilagi,

South have a pretty good record at Accor stadium where this game is being played and sales have a lot of players coming back granted we're not seeing Latrell Mitchell in a Souths jumper but the rest of the side that I'm seeing in front of me here should be good enough to put away the Eels.

As for the Eels, Jason Ryles will be under pressure at the start of next season. I was almost apoplectic listening to the game last Sunday as my chances of a clean sweep seemed to be disappearing as Parra gave up a 12-point lead only to stagger to a victory in the dying minutes. The fact is it was a pretty awful game between Parramatta and West Tigers and there are lots of issues coming out of that game not just about ball handling, but of situations where experienced professionals like The FOXX managed to blow a two on one line break and numerous handling errors meaning that Parramatta were not really completing their sets. This is basic rugby league football and from and because of that there's no way I can tip the Eels to win this game

Tip  Rabbit

Canberra Raiders  v Newcastle Knights (Sun)

Only one change for the capital club with the injured : Sebastian Kris replaced by Simi Sasagi at centre.

Similarly for the Knight just the one change with Tyson Frizell moving from the bench to the front row with  Cody Hopwood making the reverse journey.

Ricky's routed Raiders face off against the Newcastle Knights the bookies would have the Raiders as being favourites in this game but the capital club reeling from a mauling at Mudgee which basically ended their aside and aside that from that still miss Hudson Young.

They take on the Knights who won very much against the bookmaker’s odds, at Brisbane ending the Bronx season completely. Can they do it again in the capital against the Raiders certainly they are a pretty good side and they're a very well coached side and really, I do take the Knights to be able to win this game. I don't necessarily think that the Knights are going to be top four as Kaylin Ponga hinted at the end of the game last week  that was the ambition of the Knights. I don't think that they're going to make it there but I do think they are going to make the top eight, again one of the things that's going to be the big difference in this game is that the Knights have something to play for and the Raiders to be realistic don't.

Tip –Knight

St George-Illawarra v Cronulla Sharks (Sun)

One change for the Dragons with the concussed Toby Couchman replaced in the front row  by Emre Guler.

For the Sharks, the Injured KL Iro (is replaced at centre by  Mawene Hiroti (centre) and Craig Fitzgibbon continues his forward rotation policy with Addin Fonua-Blake starting in the front row with Oregon Kaufusi coming off the bench this week.

Played at Kogarah, Dragons versus Sharks is the derby  south in New South Wales in much the same way as Brisbane Broncos v North Queensland in the Derby Game in Queensland. Such is the animosity between the fans. I am gutted it is not on UK TV.

 A lot of people seem to be thinking that the Dragons are going to put the queue on the rack in this particular game and that the Sharks are going to hand out a hammering by 50 to 60 points I really do not think so I do think the Sharks are going win I do think they are far by far the better team and I think the Sharks are equally motivated for it but I think players on both sides know how important this game is to the fan bases and therefore I think it's going to be a lot closer and tighter than people expect. After all I was one of those people that felt that the game against the Dolphins at Wollongong would end up with SGI conceding so many points it would radically improve the Dolphins points differential. That proved not to be the case and the Dragons were pressing for an equalising score right up to the final hooter.

I envisage a close game but I envisage a Sharks win in the Shire Derby. It's the most English of Derby's down under.

Tip – Shark

[Sports Prophet]

I think the top four is equally as interesting on points difference.

1. Panthers 36 +308

2. Rorters 34 +155

3. Wahs 32 +226

4. Sharkies 32 +177

The Panthers play teams 2 and 3 in back to back matches and those two matches over the coming fortnight will really shape the top 4. Panthers would need to win both to lock up the minor premiership early. Two losses and their minor premiership is probably over, but even with the one loss, a home final looks to be nailed on.

As little as one loss into the finals for the Rorters (a real possibility next week… look at their form against the Panthers in the last six years) could have them down in fourth and playing the Panthers in week1. They have great form and next week’s top of the table clash looks to be a humdinger, with so much repercussions.

Wahs look to have the toughest road home of the four. Not inconceivable they lose a two or three matches. A favourable points difference is in their favour to eclipse the Rorters and Sharks into second. Winning their remaining matches I think gets them into second. My prediction is that they will lose at least two.

Then the Sharks. The team in the top 8 which I heard has played the least games against teams outside the top 8 defies the incessant lazy narrative run by the RL media. They appear to have the easiest run in and very well placed to jump into second as soon as next weekend. Nothing can be taken for granted though. That last round against Melbourne at home looks very tasty. 10yr Anniversary of the ‘16 GF and potentially Bellamy’s last match as HC after more than two decades at the helm, those men in purple will be very up for a win to finish off a very underwhelming season by their standards.

Also, if you tip the Dogs to lose and are correct… a Manly loss this weekend would not necessarily be the end of the season you think it is.

[Futtocks]

Indigenous round, and today's teams seem to have had their colour palettes swapped.

[Irish Saint]

Good morning all. Indigenous Round. Welcome to Country by uncle John Graham who is wearing the best indigenous shirt of the lot.

Andrew Voss and Kevin Walters on commentary.

[Irish Saint]

Drinkwater with 40/20

[Irish Saint]

Big JT barges over to open the score.

[Futtocks]

JT finally gets a try after a long drought.

[Irish Saint]

JT first try since 2022.

Drunkwater adds the two

6-0 Cowboys 6 minutes gone.

[Irish Saint]

Following set restart few plays later Purdue To Clifford who strolls over poor Titans defen e

Drinkwater adds the extras 12 -0  13 minutes played.

[Irish Saint]

Chance for Titans penalty 10 out high tackle on de Groodt.

[Irish Saint]

Branson grubber on last Titan's winger fails to ground the ball.

[Irish Saint]

Cotter denied ayer great one handed take from Clifford. Cotter offside from Drinkwater kick.

[Irish Saint]

After Verills held up. Two plays later Sami goes in at the corner pass from de Groodt .

Campbell misses from sideline

Cowboys 12-4 29 minutes played.

[Irish Saint]

Poor pass to Campbell who knocks on inside own 20.

[Irish Saint]

Attack comes to end with de Groodt interception.

[Irish Saint]

Again poor pass ends with Titan knock on.

[Irish Saint]

Following knock on Luki in "full earth moving mood" barges over. 

Cowboys 16-4:ktc

[Irish Saint]

Drinkwater adds the goal.

Cowboys 18-4 Half time

[Irish Saint]

Fox reporting Tedesco misses tomorrows game against Bulldogs , Ramsey takes his place.

[Irish Saint]

Purdue off to sin bin for holding on.

Two plays later Kini to Sami who goes in at the corner.

Campbell misses extras

Cowboys 18- 8 31 minutes remain

[Irish Saint]

Purdue  "back from purgatory" bursts through middle from own half to go under the post.

Drinkwater adds the two 24-8;halfway through second half

[Graham]

Cotter try being checked.

Try denied.

 

[Irish Saint]

Cottee now goes under the posts following pass from Drinkwater. Disallowed , Neme in front of Cottee denying Titan player the chance to tackle Cotter.

[Graham]

Luki try

Great pass from Drinky.

Game set and match.

[Irish Saint]

Drinkwatee to Luki who goes in from 40 out. 28-8