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  1. Luckycreed


    Bookmakers win because they offer markets at greater than 100% for a football game usually around 104% horse racing can be anything from 105% to 125% depending on how much liquidity there is in the market. When you crunch over big numbers betting markets are an incredibly accurate which is why in the long run it is so difficult to win, the houses take eventually will grind you down.They also ban you or severely restrict your activities if they suspect you to be getting access to inside information or have some other kind of edge over them. There was a time back in the eighties and nineties when there was good money to be made on the trifecta pools on the tote in both Australia and Hong Kong as the markets were not as accurate at calculating those much more complex probabilities, but sadly with the rise of powerful personal computers those glory days are long gone.
  2. Luckycreed

    Rochdale hornet recongised

    I remember reading a book about that tour, it was not supported by the RFU and was a private business venture,and the players did get a cut of the gate receipts. Nearly all the players came from the north of England and southern Scotland and the tour also included games of Australian Rules and even some cricket, anything the tour operators thought might make money.What an adventure it must have been for those young men.
  3. Luckycreed


    Well not enough to sustain twelve full time professional clubs and over twenty semi pro cluns that is for sure. Unless revenue streams suddenly get a lot bigger something will have to give, either the first tier returns to semi pro or the lower tiers become more or less amateur, That is the tough choice the sport n England is hoping it can avoid making but ultimately it will have to make.
  4. There is no doubt more to it than meets the eye, I am just going on historical precedent. When Hayne did exactly the same thing everyone said he wouldn't even make a practice squad, yet he got some regular season action.Remember he is of no value to nike if he is just sitting in the stands watching.
  5. Can I be your bookmaker?The probability has gotta be better than zero .i doubt he would be sacrificing at least one year of his NRL salary if he hadn't impressed somebody over there. I guess you have to define what you mean by "making it" if you mean he ends up in the gridiron hall of fame them yes , you are talking pick the superfecta in the Melbourne Cup type odds. On the other hand if we define it as getting a run at some stage during a regular season NFL game I think there is a pretty good chance of him achieving that. Homes is not as good as Hayne was as a Rugby player but his more direct running style might suit the North American game, more than Hayne,.
  6. Luckycreed

    TV Deal

    Allora I am not convinced they will get significantly more next time, not unless they are willing to give greater exclusivity to foxtel. All three commercial networks in Australia having been burning through shareholders money for over a decade now.Their problem is not revenue, they are still getting big revenue streams from advertising, their problem is costs, they are paying too much for their content. The sports market in Australia has seen hyperinflation in broadcasting rights over the last twenty years mainly because if competition from content hungry foxtel, for this to continue the big sports will have to give foxtel greater exclusivity over product, because the fta networks are going to have to start controlling costs. Nine didn't lose the cricket, it felt seven was paying overs for it and was happy to let them have it,I think nine made the right call, and it might be the start of a more rational approach by commercial fta broadcasting in this country.
  7. If you take a step back and think about it logically signing an Australian Rugby League player only makes any sense for an NFL franchise from a purely commercial perspective It provides a chance for the franchise to promote itself in a sizeable market where a sport somewhat analogous to American Football is popular. Australian Rugby League supporters who would not otherwise watch the NFL will watch if Homes is getting some game time and they will watch the games involving whatever franchise he his playing for, So I would not be the least bit surprised if a franchise that is not expecting to have a great year doesn't end up with Homes catching a few punts for them.I always felt this is what the Hayne thing was really about and if he hadn't have kept fumbling the ball it would have worked out ok the franchise, it's not like he was going to make or break their season. What the NRL needs to think about is this is a rival sport using Rugby League players to promote it's product in the NRL's own backyard and if Homes can manage not to drop the ball and beat the odd tackle (which he is quite capable of doing if he doesn't get too nervous) and the franchise he plays for watches the income coming in from Australia being much bigger than his salary, other franchises will come looking.
  8. Indeed in 2008 and 2017 the World Cup final has not been held in our biggest city but instead in Brisbane, which is really a very large provincial town, which I think tells us all we need to know.
  9. I think interest in the international game is a bit softer in Sydney, crowd figures certainly suggest it is,that is why I mentioned above that England/GB would have to put in a really strong showing in a first test in Brisbane to get a big roll up down there.
  10. Dave the crowds for tier one test matches in Brisbane since 2005 April 2005 Australia vs New Zealand 40 317 May 2006 Australia vs New Zealand 44 191 Nov 2006 Australia vs Great Britain 44 358 April 2008 Australia vs New Zealand 35241 Nov 2008 England vs New Zealand 26 659 Nov 2008 Australia vs New Zealand 50 509 May 2009 Australia vs New Zealand 37 162 Nov 2010 Australia vs New Zealand 36 299 Oct 2014 Australia vs New Zealand 47 813 England vs Samoa (double header) May 2015 Australia vs New Zealand 32 681 Dec 2017 Australia vs England 40 033 As we can see nobody in Brisbane gives a toss about it, there is at best "passive demand" Brisbane is not Sydney and there is more to Australian Rugby League than Sydney.
  11. Actually going to the Rugby League project and looking at crowds for test football against the other two leading nations in Brisbane in the modern era and they are actually very good,IM 2008 even a neutral game between New Zealand and England drew Over 26000 and crowds of over 40k have been quite common..As usual we are getting the Sydney view of things, at least as far as Brisbane is concerned lack of interest seems to be a bit of an urban myth.
  12. I don't agree there would be no interest,if you played the first test in Brisbane you would get 35 - 40k and over a million would watch on tv. what happened from there would really depend on how England performed... If they won or came close the second test would be big, if on the other hand they got thumped you would be lucky to get 20k to a second test in Sydney and if they got thumped again the third test would be a complete write off.
  13. Luckycreed

    Schofield: Let’s now bring on Australia

    When I was a kid first playing the game in the late sixties they used to say tackle low they can't run without legs.Those kiwi teams of the early eighties had the philosophy that they can't run without a head.Australia also had some brutal encounters against kiwi teams of that vintage,
  14. All very true,, it's interesting you mention interstate football, because it very nearly got killed off back in the late seventies. The games were still popular up in here in Brisbane, but down in Sydney nobody cared. they punted it to Leichardt Oval, because the crowds were too poor to justify playing at the cricket ground.There was a strong push from the Sydney media to scrap it . The QRL pushed hard and they agreed to a one off game under an origin format in 1980 QLD won , there was another one off game in 81 QLD won again and then they went to best of three in 82 which QLD won again. I often wonder what would have happened if QLD had lost those early origin games, my guess is we wouldn't be talking about state of origin in 2018, because the whole concept would have been dumped. I also remember it took Sydney a few years and regular beatings to catch the bug, it wasn't an instant hit down there, in fact in the early years the Sydney media used to infer that QLD were only winning because we took it more seriously and the NSW players were only half arsed about it. But you can only be in denial for so long and after a few years they had to admit that yes QLD can play the game and this is good football, much better than Sydney club football and once the Sydney media changed the narrative, the whole thing exploded down south. So the moral of the story is the best thing that could happen for our sport in both Australia and England is for Australia to tour in 2019 and lose and then lose the world cup to England in 2021, because anglo Australian test football has the potential to be a very big money spinner for our sport if England can win their share of games, series and tournaments, it wii be making good money and the NRL will grow very fond of it, like the NSWRL grew to like origin .
  15. Deep down they fear us, to pay the bills that come with full time pro club union at current salart levels Rugby Union relies on getting lots of people who don't otherwise follow the sport to watch internationals on tv These people have no tribal allegiance to Rugby Union as a sport (they do to the national team) they could just as easily watch international Rugby League if we could ever get our s### together. On the one hand they claim we are irrelevant , but obviously were not irrelevant because if we were thay wouldn't waste their time spitting at us on Rugby League match review forums,