With the tricky Origin period upon us, Ivan Cleary’s Panthers are fighting to keep their hopes of a fifth straight title alive.
AUSTRALIAN rugby league fans circle State of Origin dates in their diary as soon as the fixtures are released each year.
Supporters on both sides of the Tweed River eagerly await the game’s biggest showpiece each winter, when New South Wales and Queensland lock horns in three no-holds-barred interstate clashes.
One man who wasn’t looking forward to this year’s Origin series kicking off at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday, 28th May was Penrith Panthers coach Ivan Cleary.
Son and captain Nathan Cleary, fullback Dylan Edwards, winger Brian To’o, back-rower Liam Martin and lock Isaah Yeo are all staples in the NSW Blues’ line-up, when fit. That means Cleary’s brightest stars will be bruised and banged up throughout the vital mid-season period.
While well-timed byes in the build-up to Game Two in Perth on Wednesday, 18th June and Game Three in Sydney on Wednesday, 9th July spare them two games minus their guns, they had to cop Round 12 against Newcastle in Bathurst.
And there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to back up just days after the brutal interstate clashes, or even in the games in between.
Not the mention the increased risk of injury, particularly for star half Cleary, who’s been hobbled by knee and soft tissue complaints in recent seasons.
The Origin campaign has presented headaches for the four-time reigning champions throughout their all-conquering recent past.
They hadn’t lost a game in 2021 before falling to the Tigers and Sharks — who both missed the playoffs — in consecutive weeks either side of Origin One.
They navigated 2022 and 2023 nicely, although last year, they dropped home games to Manly and North Queensland with Origin-affected lineups.
Penrith’s poor start to 2025 mean the stakes are higher this year.
Ivan Cleary’s ability to navigate this unpredictable phase of the season may determine whether the Panthers still have a shot at a fifth consecutive Provan-Summons Trophy come July.
Penrith travelled to Brisbane for Magic Round in Round 9 in the unfamiliar position of rock bottom on the NRL ladder, with just two wins and six losses to that point of the campaign.
In a 24-game NRL campaign, clubs typically need to win 12 games to give themselves a shot at a finals berth, or 13 to be more confident.
That leaves you with a budget of 11 (or maximum 12) losses before you rule yourself out of playoff contention.
The Panthers had wasted half their allotment before the calendar flicked over to May, when they would have loved a few more up their sleeve to cope with these treacherous Origin weeks.
The season started on script with a 28-22 win over Cronulla in Las Vegas, before five straight losses left everyone scratching their heads.
They flogged the Roosters 40-12 for just their second win on Easter Saturday, but a limp defeat to Manly in Parramatta — their home away from home while Penrith Stadium is being redeveloped — left their season on life support.
They flew to Suncorp Stadium in Round 9 for a daunting date with the vaunted Broncos on their own turf.
And with the entire NRL world gathered in Brisbane, the back-to-back-to-back-to-back champions reminded us all exactly why they’ve accumulated so much silverware over recent years.
The 32-8 humbling of their hosts was the sort of performance that will feel like an inflection point if they do even more damage this post-season — the moment the champs rediscovered their mojo.
At the middle of the revival, of course, was Nathan Cleary.
When Penrith’s captain is in that sort of mood, his team cannot be beaten.
The Panthers slammed on four tries in a 17-minute blitz that was eerily reminiscent of the 2023 grand final, when Cleary and co. overhauled a 16-point deficit in the same period of time at the death.
Involved in both passages was a near-identical Cleary four-pointer, his footwork mesmerising the goal-line defence, which struggled to lay a hand on him.
There’s no longer any doubt the 27-year-old is the best player in the competition. The only query is how much his injury-prone body will allow him to achieve.
Shoulder, knee and hamstring complaints have punched large holes in his past four campaigns.
But in all four years, he’s been fit by September. And in all four years, he’s piloted his side to the ultimate prize.
More pressure rests on his shoulders the more salary-cap pressures degrade the original team his father had built.
Cleary and his other Origin reps have always been the stars of the show, but there were far more support acts at the start of their dynasty than now.
Look at the 2021 Grand Final team sheet. Stephen Crichton, Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau have all been poached by Canterbury coach Cameron Ciraldo, an ex-Penrith assistant.
Stand-off Jarome Luai — Cleary’s halves partner in local junior teams since they were kids — has defected to the Wests Tigers, joining another key member of the old Panthers spine, hooker Api Koroisau.
James Fisher-Harris and Kurt Capewell are now New Zealand Warriors, and Spencer Leniu lines up for the Sydney Roosters.
This long list of Origin and international calibre players has been replaced by rookies and journeymen — solid citizens, but not the star-studded 17 that kicked off the run of four consecutive premierships.
The gaping disparity between Origin stalwarts Cleary, Edwards, To’o, Martin and Yeo then the role-players places an even greater premium on their form and fitness.
With fewer stars around, the more they depend on the handful they’ve clung onto.
So when those prized assets don sky blue and subject themselves to the brutal Origin cauldron, coach Cleary will be on the edge of his couch, chewing his nails and peering between his fingers.
If the key men survive unscathed and the support cast can keep the win column ticking over, they remain a terrifying prospect for play-off opponents — even if they only sneak into the bottom half of the top eight.
Any team sheet featuring those five names will be very difficult to beat in September.
Whether the Panthers can bank enough wins to get there is the question — a question this Origin period will go a long way to answering.
First published in Rugby League World magazine, Issue 509 (June 2025)