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The Great Dane

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Everything posted by The Great Dane

  1. Going on the experience we have in Sydney and Melbourne we actually do know that the vast majority of people won't travel more than hour there and back regularly to watch sporting events. Which is relatively easy to do in Melbourne, but very hard to do in Sydney and Brisbane. Redcliffe to Suncorp is about 30-40min in good traffic conditions (other parts of Morton Bay are anywhere up to an hour or so away) but most of the clubs games will be played in peak hour on a weeknight with increased traffic on the roads because of the game, which will blow out travel time considerably in a city where congestion has been getting worse over the last 20 years not better. Considering that we can't even get Manly fans to cross the bridge in the best conditions, the above will almost certainly heavily restrict the amount of people from their target market willing to attend Dolphins games on a regular basis. Meanwhile Coorparoo and the inner south is only 10 minutes from Suncorp in good traffic conditions.
  2. So you're just going to pretend that the World Sevens, NRL Nines, and their multiple iterations never happened? You know those those festival events where people went for more than just the games, that were reasonably successful for a year or two, then died a death after the novelty effect wore off. So I don't just think you are wrong, we know objectively that you are wrong because literally exactly what you are suggesting has been tried multiple times in multiple iterations and has always failed to live up to expectations, and you know what they say; the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results. And of course the second tier clubs have struggled to maintain a following over the last few decades, they get no support from the NRL and have next to no exposure. It's very hard to sell a product that 90+% of the average punters don't even realise exists. But if you increased that exposure by placing them into a national competition that's broadcast at reasonable times with FTA exposure, and isn't in direct competition with the NRL or AFL, then that could change everything not only for those clubs but for the whole way that people interact with the sport.
  3. It was only delayed because of issues with covid. Those have been dealt with, and the three bids were presented to the ARLC last Monday with the hope that the winning bid will be decide in the coming months, and the comp will expand in either 2023 or 2024. Whether or not it actually goes ahead depends on broadcaster interest now. BTW, expanding the competition is expansion, whether or not the team is based where you'd like them to be or not.
  4. As with everything, People whom want to gamble are going to find a way to gamble no matter what you do. So considering that fact, is it better for society that- A. Gambling is done in a safe and legal environment where help is easily accessible to people that have addiction issues, and at least some of that money is invested back into community and charitable projects that are for the betterment of society. B. The gambling industry is still legal and safe as possible, but it's totally controlled by for profit bookies and casinos, whose owners get very rich but aren't obliged to give anything back to society outside of paying taxes. C. It's illegal and organised crime take over, there're no safeguards or protections, it doesn't get taxed, and people whom can't pay their debts get their legs broken or worse. Because in reality those are the options, and I know which I find the least 'ethically revolting'. Yes leagues clubs could and should do more, I'd even say that governments should step in and mandate that they do more, but all things considered they're a pretty good outcome for what can be a very dark and damaging industry. BTW, leagues clubs don't exist only to fund pro-clubs, in fact vast majority don't back a pro-club at all, they reinvest their profits into also sorts of charitable projects, not just community sport, and being a member of a leagues club doesn't necessarily mean you are fan of that leagues club's team.
  5. Nobody fits in your 'summer 9s vision' because nobody would watch it after the novelty effect wears off. If you want it to work you need a point of difference to sell to people, and trying to get the vast majority of NRL fans to watch their clubs' reserve graders run-around playing a Micky Mouse format ain't it, we know that because it's been tried. Engage underrepresented markets with proven demand, and start small with realistic expectations, then you've got potential to build something. North Sydney Bears vs Wynnum Manly Seagulls playing in a national comp on Friday night in the summer would out sell and out rate NRL reserves playing 9s for one simple reason; the Bears and Seagulls fans would actually care about the competition.
  6. Yeah lets make another novelty league like the World Sevens and NRL 9s, because they went great and didn't suffer from diminishing returns at all... Plenty of sustained interest lol. This attitude that everything revolves around the NRL and Sydney clubs is everything that is wrong with the game in Australia. We know there's demand for RL in Perth even if it's just within the expat community. Give them a team with decent exposure, market it well, and people would come.
  7. And that's where any potential sustained fan interest went out the window. If you are going to do a summer league, and take it seriously by trying to build it into in a commercial product in it's own right, then you need to use it to grow the sport and it's commercial opportunities, and you don't do that by playing Mickey Mouse glorified novelty exhibition matches between the NRL clubs that not even their fans really care about. How you do that is you use it as a tool to appeal to an audience that is interested in RL but isn't catered to by the NRL, and that necessitates clubs that aren't a part of the Telstra Premiership. Take a handful of traditional clubs like Norths that have a proven fanbase but are crying out for more exposure and a grander stage, put them in a summer league that has a reasonable broadcast deal on national FTA TV and just watch them draw 10k+ to North Sydney oval every second week to watch what is effectively a second grade competition. Fill the rest of the comp out with expansion markets that are crying out for an the NRL club but aren't getting one anytime soon, e.g. places like Perth, and you've got yourself the makings of a league that has the potential to become a permanent fixture in the calendar and a success in it's own right. You could even use it as a testing ground for potential NRL clubs. Of course Gould isn't talking about anything so grand, he's only really suggesting it as a one off because of the impact of COVID, which has merit IMO.
  8. For all sorts of cultural and historical reasons everything is in a state of flux right now, so it's really too simplistic to say stuff like 'NSW=RL'. Just take NSW for example; sure RL is still the dominant sport in NSW and to a much lesser the ACT, but AFL is growing fast, and has more or less taken over large parts of southern NSW. From about Goulburn it's roughly a 50/50 split (with some notable exceptions) with AFL becoming more dominant the closer you get to the Victorian border. People will say 'look at the Barassi line it's always been like that', but they are wrong, the AFL has grown significantly in the region and frankly the Barassi line has been slowly creeping north over the last 40 years and could/should be realigned. Similar is true of all the states and territories of Australia, even the ones that most people would say are most solidly NRL/AFL territory like QLD, Tassie, and SA, but I won't go into each in detail as it'd take forever and I'm not informed enough to talk on some places (the NT in particular). One thing I will say though is that Indigenous people are not more inclined to support AFL than any other code in my experience, and that what state/territory they are from is a better indicator of their preferred code than their ethnicity. If you are really interested in learning about this stuff, and in understanding how and why the Australian football market is the way it is and why the NRL acts the way it does, then I suggest picking up a copy of Code Wars - The Battle for Fans, Dollars and Survival by Dr Hunter Fujak. It's an excellent book that goes into much more detail on this subject than any of us could hope to.
  9. I'll say what I said before more plainly; the NRL clubs can't do anymore damage to the World Cup than has already been done by others! I also find the entitlement to the competition going ahead quite sickening considering the circumstances, especially when considering that there's really no harm in delaying it. In saying that though it should be up to the individual whether or not they want to participate, just don't get upset when everybody puts a massive asterisk next to the comp if too many players pull out.
  10. I've had this argument before, you are wrong. The fact that the NZRL has squandered what the NRL has given them to the point that most Kiwi's don't even realise that they are getting it in the first place is as much an indictment on the NZRL as it is on the NRL for allowing the money to be wasted in the first place.
  11. Your line of logic hasn't worked for either the ARU or FFA, and going on the fact that English RL has been focused on international footy for just about as long as I can remember yet has been shrinking since at least the 90s, I'd suggest that it hasn't worked for the RFL/Super League either. In fact, IMO, the myth that internationals are some magic cure that can instantly change a sport's fortune has actually further cemented each of the three examples above's decline. I mean the very idea that just because you can get a person through the gate to support their nations, that that means that they might/will have an interest in supporting clubs such as WSW, the Waratahs, and Castleford, is terrible logic in my opinion. I mean look at the Olympics and how many people take an interest in them every 4 years, only to forget the sports they took an interest in for the duration of Olympics even exist after they are over. I also seriously doubt that there're many solid examples, i.e. backed by hard data, where an international competition 'sparked' a ' revival in the club game'. I mean Australian RU has only shrunk since the 03 WC and the last British and Irish Lions tour, and RL in England has shrunk since the 2013 WC, not seen a sustained boost, so why will this one be any different? The answer is that it almost certainly won't be, and that that's a false hope... Nah if you want the sport, and internationals by extension, to become more relevant in the culture then it will come off the back of the grassroots, the club game, and the creation of star players. As a product that is RL's bread and butter, and as such that is where the majority of the focus needs to be. How you go about pursuing that growth in the RFL's case is debatable, but a few things are obvious; the administrative structure needs to be completely reworked as too many people with vested interests have too much power, and you need to find a way to find a lot of investment for the sport and significantly increase it's exposure nationally at once.
  12. The NRL hasn’t damaged the World Cup, if anything them pumping resources into developing players from NZ and the PI’s is the only thing that has kept it even slightly relevant in recent years... The problems that the World Cup, and international RL in general, face can’t be fixed independently of the RFL, and other nations, getting their houses in order. A strong international product starts with strong local club competitions, and until we have that in more than just one nation international footy is always going to struggle.
  13. RU also makes significantly more from internationals and have much less to lose from missing club games as a result. As long as the risk isn’t worth the return clubs are going to be reluctant to participate in internationals that impact on their season, and can you really blame them, they are businesses after all.
  14. I don't have time to look up exact amounts, it'd be in the annual report somewhere (probably bundled with the states and affiliates expenses). Gus Gould was even talking about how he got them to double it earlier this year (though whether that is double pre or post covid figures IDK). The fact that without direct overview from the NRL/ARLC the vast majority of that investment has disappeared into a money pit, to the point that you have so little to show for it that you don't even realise that you are getting the grants in the first place, is as much the NZRL's fault as it is the NRL's for giving them the money in the first place. It is also exactly what everybody with a brain warned would happen. On top of that the NRL fund the Warriors, the NRL clubs develop every pro-RL player from NZ (except for those that come through RU systems and the handful that come though the ESL), they are the only thing that keeps RL in the mainstream in NZ, etc, etc, to the point that RL effectively wouldn't be a major sport in NZ anymore if it wasn't for NRL intervention. BTW, aside from direct grants to the local governing bodies in most cases, most of what I said about NZ is/was true (pre-covid) for all the major PI nations except PNG to an extent, and that focus on development in the PI's and NZ has had significant effects locally in Australia, particularly for the local grassroots and professional pathways.
  15. I don't know how you can possibly say that when even games between the 'better' teams have had lopsided scores more often than not. The new rules and 'interpretations' were poorly thought out and rushed through, and have added even more subjectivity into a rule set that already had way too much subjectivity in it. As a result the game is now more predictable, boring, and confusing, than it's ever been. Add on top of that that the whole philosophy that is taken to officiating in the NRL has needed to change for about a decade now, and huge swaths of the fan-base are rapidly getting frustrated and losing interest. They're doing it in the worst way possible as well. Not with any furore or protest, they're simply switching off and watching less and less NRL. It reminds of me of when RU effectively died as a major sport in Australia. A very negative and boring style of play became dominant in early 00s, and that on top of a whole bunch of other issues was the straw that broke the camel's back, and by the early 10s RU was effectively a zombie in Australia. BTW, I also love how it's "poor roster management" and not that the salary cap hasn't been updated to cope with changes in the modern world, which has made an already janky and easily circumvented system borderline worthless, with some teams having huge inherent advantages over the others that means you have a handful of teams whose second, and sometimes third string, players in any given position are better than the starters at a large chunk of the other clubs.
  16. Nobody outside of the Jets bid and the NRL actually know what their financials are like, however the Bombers had pretty reasonable backing pre-covid, so you'd imagine that they'd at least have similar. Until more detail comes out about the bid it's just media noise.
  17. There isn't really anywhere in Queensland outside of the Brisbane Metropolitan Area that could realistically support an NRL side that doesn't already have one, and until some of the outer regions like Ipswich, Logan, and Morton Bay are more developed and have better infrastructure (which will probably take decades) placing more than two teams in Brisbane would suffer severely from diminishing returns and just be risking oversaturation similar to that in Sydney. The Sunshine Coast is the possible exception, but again they'd need significant investment into infrastructure (namely stadium and public transport) before it'd be feasible, and more likely than not would end up as the Titans 2.0. It'd also be very hard to justify Brisbane 3 or the Sunshine Coast over bigger more lucrative markets like WA or SA. Then again the current NRL administration doesn't seem to care about real growth or investment in the future, so maybe that wouldn't be a factor.
  18. Yeah not comparable at all considering that nobody in Sydney could have cared less about the Swans history... They may as well have been a brand new team to 75% of the population north of the barassi line when they first relocated, and even then it took almost going broke a couple of times, having the whole comp rigged in their favour, and generational change before they were really accepted in Sydney. The NRL can't afford to wait a generation or two for the second Brisbane club to be a success. My favorite example is the Tuggeranong/Canberra Vikings, because it's an almost exact parallel to the Dolphins and they are local so I have first hand experience with them. They tried and failed to launch 'Canberra' teams in higher competitions three times, and it's because by keeping the Vikings brand they alienated every non-Vikings fan in the ACT RU community, people whose support they needed to make the teams a success. There's even easily accessible evidence of the backlash from the last time they tried it, which isn't the case in most other examples because they happened pre-internet. It's also interesting to juxtapose their failure to the Queanbeyan Blues/Canberra Raiders success. The significant difference between the two was the Raiders took a neutral brand, which placated people whom weren't exactly fans of the Blues (including myself), where the Vikings tried to push through with the "history and tradition" of their brand and only succeeded in ####### off everybody who has a history and tradition of hating the Vikings. Already talked about them. If the Dolphins are any hope of being a success in Brisbane then they'll have to follow the Port Adelaide/Canberra Raiders model, which means a full rebrand to distance themselves from the old club, but the Dolphins are refusing to do that. Even with their rebrand the Power have traditionally struggled to attract a broader audience and are one of the smaller and financially weaker sides in the AFL (you see a similar thing in the Raiders, though broadly speaking the Raiders have handled it better, and they have no direct competition like Port do in the Crows). They are also currently going through an identity crisis because of moves to incorporate more of their old brand, specifically the jersey and colours, into the new club, which is having knock on effects in their fan base.
  19. Bias towards East's lol. Redcliffe have basically all the media support, most fans blindly back them because they are the richest, they're the name that gets brought up most when administrators and pundits talk about expansion, etc, etc. But sure there's a lot of bias towards Easts... You want to talk history then why don't we talk about the history of other expansion teams that have been 'grounded' in history, as you put it, and how they have gone in Australia. Why don't we talk about the fact that there isn't one team in a major sports competition in Australia that has been successful trying to do what Redcliffe are attempting, and that's not through of lack of trying. Why don't we talk about the struggles that the Raiders and Power have had trying to get people outside of their traditional homes to support their teams, and both of them fully rebranded which the Dolphins refuse to do. Port are currently going through an identity crisis, why don't we talk about that. That's the thing about history; it comes with lots of baggage.
  20. With the current administration it's definitely possible that SEQ could get two more licenses before Perth gets one. So yes it could happen, but if the NRL have any interest in what's best for the game it shouldn't even be considered. The second Brisbane club should be the last NRL license that Qld gets for at least a couple decades, unless something unpredictable happens like major rationalisation of Sydney or a push to a proper conference system.
  21. I don't support Easts particularly, they are just objectively the best option available of the known bids in Brisbane. If a better bid popped up tomorrow I'd back it instead. In fact if I had my way the West Coast Pirates would get the 17th license over any of the current Brisbane bids. So if anything I "support" them, but Perth getting the 17th license isn't realistically on the table anymore.
  22. Nope. Firstly Logan is south west of Brisbane, and the connection between Logan and Ipswich is tenuous except for the fact that Logan is a great juniors catchment and the Jet's have made it clear they want to claim it. If you were to extend our Sydney analogy to Ipswich then they'd be Penrith (or the outer West more generally), except without the wealthy leagues clubs, or a ground capable of hosting NRL games, just as far away from Suncorp as Redcliffe, etc, etc. There's potential for an NRL club in Ipswich, but it isn't ready for one now, and there's no political or social will to invest the resources necessary to make it ready to support a club any time soon.
  23. No offence, but you have an extremely surface level understanding of what's going on. The idea that the Titans failed because of their "plastic" identity is just nonsense (which I won't go into here), and the idea that the Redcliffe Dolphins have any hope of appealing to a broader audience outside of Redcliffe and parts of Morton Bay in the short to medium term is crazy. The analogy that often gets thrown around is that Redcliffe are Brisbane's answer to Manly, and frankly it's very accurate. Redcliffe is a tiny insular peninsula on the outskirts of Brisbane. They have a strong RL history, with lots of success, and that's lead to them not having many fans in other parts of city, if you know what I mean. They also had a reputation for not being good travelers back in the day. So yeah, very similar to Manly except for the fact that they are loaded where as Manly aren't. Now some of that might lead you to believe that they would be a great choice for an NRL license, but stop and think about it a little deeper. If they run with the Dolphins brand they will turn away tens of thousands of potential supporters whom have a history of competing against the Dolphins. I mean I assume from your name that you are a Hull KR fan, would you swap to Hull FC if they were promoted into a higher competition and tried to represent all of Hull? Probably not right, nor would a significant portion of the Robins fanbase, so why would you expect any different from local fans in Brisbane, whom any new club will need significant buy in from if they are going to be successful in the NRL? There have been clubs that have been promoted from local competitions into national, or other higher competitions, that have been successful in expanding their audience in Australia, however both of the significant examples in this case (Canberra Raiders and Port Adelaide Power) have required re-brands and efforts to distance themselves from the old team to achieve that, which Redcliffe utterly refuses to do. Bris 2 will be forced to play most of their games out of Suncorp (hopefully all of them for the foreseeable future, but that is another discussion), and because of the broadcasters Bris 2 is going to be forced to play the vast majority of their games on weeknights in primetime. It takes roughly 40min to drive from Redcliffe to Suncorp, on a good day... During peak hour on a weeknight it would take well over an hour, and I can't imagine that public transport would be any faster. We can't get people in any other market to regularly take that time to travel to games in significant numbers, why will it be any different in Brisbane? It almost certainly won't be any different is the answer, and when you add to that the facts that there aren't enough Dolphins fans to independently support an NRL team, let alone live up to the potential of a second Brisbane club, and that unless they are instantly successful on the pitch they'll almost certainly struggle to garner support from outside of their tradition region for the foreseeable future, and you've got a recipe for disaster. Jumping back to our analogy with Manly; if there was only one club in Sydney, let's say in the city, nobody in their right mind would put the second on the Northern Beaches (i.e. Manly), they'd put it somewhere in Western Sydney, probably the Inner West, because that's where a large population is, with a significant portion of RL fans, lots of corporate and sponsor opportunities, close to a good stadium, etc. So if Redcliffe is Manly's equivalent, the Broncos are the city club, then what is the equivalent of the West? That would have to be the South, specifically the region just South of the river. The Firehawks are based in Coorparoo, in the Inner South. They've been forced by circumstance to give up their old brand that would alienate people just like the Dolphin's brand would. Though not as loaded as the Dolphins, they can more than afford to support an NRL team, and would instantly be one of the most financially stable clubs in the NRL. They've got a huge catchment and juniors nursery in the South of Brisbane and Logan to grow into, with not only the Easts Tigers, but Wynnum Manly (arguably the largest Brisbane club outside of the NRL) next door. I could go on, but I think you get the idea.
  24. This is definitely true. Take the Raiders Group. They own at least 6 leagues clubs (4 in the ACT, 1 in NSW, and 1 in Qld), each of those clubs easily have over ten thousand members. If the Raiders could somehow convert even just half of those Leagues club members into football club members, then they'd easily have over 50k football club members. That would be effectively impossible to achieve though as the vast majority of those leagues club members couldn't care less about RL, and another significant portion support other NRL teams.
  25. I listened and Mr Robinson is totally ignorant of what it actually takes to crack a competitive sports market that is new to the sport. All of his suggestion were incredibly one dimensional and parochial. If he thinks throwing £13mil (or whatever) into grassroots football in Toronto, or Canada more broadly, would have had any impact whatsoever then he's beyond delusional. In a totally new market like Canada that kind of investment into the grassroots as they are would have quickly disappeared down a money pit and they'd have nothing to show for it. Here's the reality, you need well funded professional entities with broad exposure to push grassroots growth in competitive sports markets that are new to the sport. If you don't have that it's impossible to breakthrough the noise made by the more popular sports in the market, and as a result next to nobody in the market knows that your sport even exists to take an interest in playing it. Just look at Australia; News Ltd and the NRL have collectively put over AU$100mil on top of average grants into the Melbourne Storm in the last 20 years, and that money went just into keeping them alive for the first decade and a bit. It's taken all that money and time just to build what can best be described as a niche market in Melbourne, and it's been 20 years now (a generation) and only now are you starting to see significant growth in the local grassroots, which is still tiny and made up almost exclusively of expats. Over AU$100mil is what it's taken just to get to the point in Melbourne where there is a significant amount of people interested in playing the sport at all, and Melbourne is about 4-5 hours away from the edge of the strongest RL markets in the world. So considering that imagine what it'll will take to crack a whole new continent that has basically no exposure to the sport! It's a mammoth task, and if it's going to be successful it's going to require the exposure that only professional competition can bring as well as a lot of money and resources poured into the grassroots locally, and it will be generations before you see any significant growth or a steady flow of home grown players filtering through.
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