Maximus Decimus

Very decent game. I was looking forward to the penalty shootout in the hope I'd see Germany lose one. Alas it wasn't to be.

It's probably the closest comparison to Sunday for pure release from the depths of despair. It's also similar because on that toss of a coin we would have had another miserable failure, and who knows the whole Southgate era might never have got going. We backed that up with our best performance of the tournament, so here's hoping for the same.

Think the Dutch are making a bit of a statement here. I know Austria and Switzerland have done well, and England have the players but surely they should be the favourites on this side of the draw currently? They are a more established nation that create a lot of chances.

Southgate's whole tenure as England manager has certainly been one of cautious play. One slight caveat I would add to that, is that I'm not sure there's been a time in tournaments when we've ever been what you'd call an attacking side, maybe 2004? Where I will disagree, is that I don't think this is par for the course for Southgate, and I don't agree that a win would vindicate him. We've been objectively terrible this tournament so far, and while we've had poor performances in prior tournaments, we've also had half decent ones. This team playing like this now is miles away from a performance like a 4-0 vs Ukraine, 3-0 vs Nigeria/Wales or 6-2 against Iran, and especially not one where we outplayed the current World Champions. There is clearly something different this time. I think Southgate is trying to approach it the same way, but it isn't working the same. As for the vindication issue, you can't win a game like we did on Sunday and then extrapolate anything about tactics or approach. We were 60 seconds from abject huniliation. We can win from here, but we either do so because something changes and we improve, or we continue to get lucky.

You raise a very good point. When England are aimlessly passing it around the back and reluctant to move forward, it's not because they're clueless. They understand far more than any of us do. It's because they can see the danger of what is there. From a layman's POV, I don't understand why it is seen as safer keeping the ball around the defence than getting the ball up the field. You're always one mistake away from a very dangerous situation as evidenced by Pepe last night.

Has that ever happened? All 3 missed for Slovenia and all 3 scored for Portugal. When England fans feel pity for you, it must be bad.

210 minutes without conceding against two of the supposed best attacking teams in the tournament. Penalties!

I think that's why I did my post about it not overshadowing the reality of a bad performance. Because it was euphoric at the time. It's the first I've even had a glimmer of the 'it's coming home' stuff and dancing round the room to World in Motion. Anything from here is a bonus, because we were out, we were gone and I was already planning my week as if we were gone. It wasn't just a late winner, it was at the point where Slovakia were dragging out injury time and nothing was happening. I can't think of a comparable sporting event for one or my teams.

Have faith that Southgate will change the system... He's like the Lord Melchett of football manager. 'So, are we going to change the system around and admit it isn't working?' 'Exactly, exactly what the enemy would expect us to do and therefore exactly what we shan't do!' I'm actually hopeful that injuries might force some changes that end up being positive.

He set out determined to give yellows and fair enough, but completely shied away when it meant a red might be given. I thought we were very lucky with their goal. If he goes down after thr contact from Guehi, it's a penalty and Guehi is off as he was already on a yellow.

Not according to the bookies. England are 11/10 and Switzerland 3-1 in ordinary time. You've gotta respect the bookies, but this is not evidence based.

For all the excitement and the great escape, it can't mask what was an objectively terrible performance. We've escaped against a minnow, but demonstrated little hope that things will improve. Southgate got very lucky because he was in for a world of criticism had we gone out: playing the same way as the previous 3 games, bringing like no-one on, wasting the lucky draw etc The biggest positive is that it could light a fire up them. Switzerland are good but it's certainly winnable if things go our way. On another note, I thought the referee was bad. He was overly card happy then stopped showing them even though one yellow-carded player was continually doing bad fouls. Then, in injury time he started giving it every time a Slovakian player went down.

Such a weird feeling. I wasn't just resigned to going out, I was basically making plans as if we were out. I can't believe we're somehow still in it.

81 minutes and we've brought on one sub due to injury.

St Jude isn't winning over any fans. What a petulant child.

I genuinely can't believe what I've seen. 300 minutes of dross and clear evidence the system isn't working only to try it again and expect a different scenario.

One of the biggest contrast with last night's game, is how often Germany and Denmark ran with the ball. Are we told we're not allowed to?

Southgate's stubbornness is going to mean he leaves in ignomany.

I don't want to make any projections based on 3 minutes but... Nothing has changed. Literally nothing.

I agree they were both technically correct, but I also think the first one was. I don't watch a great deal of football, but it honestly feels like football has become like the caricature that Anthony Gelling joked about when they first brought it in. I don't know if it's worse at this Euros, but it has got to the point where you don't fully cheer because you wait for the replay. RL went through this problem too (and hasn't perfected it), when they would go looking for reasons to chalk off tries based on technicalities. We'd end up with spurious decisions based on obstruction that took ages and pleased no-one. The infamous (to me) Widnes vs Barrow chest pass was the worst for me. I'm of the opinion that if the attack think it's a try and the defence think it's a try then give it. That's why I prefer challenge systems like they have in tennis. With regards to football, the goal-line technology works well and if they can get offsides to be instant (surely the machine knows straight away) then that would be accepted. People can moan about it only being a toe or whatever, but there has to be a cut-off point. The handball rule is a mess. I've spoken before about the problem with the penalty rule and this is exacerbated by interpretations like this. In a sport like football, where a game averages fewer than 3 points, giving somebody an 80%+ chance of scoring should be am extreme event. However, it's treated like giving someone a kick at goal in rugby. They should make handballs part of a challenge system and it should have to be that they've gained a clear advantage from it IMO. Had his hand not touched the ball, then a clear goal-scoring chance would have occurred. Finding this exact balance might be hard, but there's no way last night's example deserves to give Germany a huge advantage in winning the game.

The first one could genuinely go either way I reckon. As for the second, it will surely be a comfortable German victory. Form seemingly counts for naught with the bookies, as England are 2/5 to win in normal time and Slovakia are 8-1.

I hope not. Can you imagine the smell in a house with 4 bedridden grandparents eating cabbage every day...

I've got really mixed feelings about being on the 'easier' side of the draw. On the one hand, I want to see England win something and if we did I wouldn't care how we did it. This draw is a positive on that front. On the other hand, I want to see us against the big countries and I want to see us beat an in-form top nation. I don't want to have to wait for the final before that happens. The best we can get is Italy or the Netherlands, and they aren't on top form. It is more likely than not that we won't make the final, so we're facing a good chance of losing to a relative minnow or a poor version of a big country. Even though we might lose, I think I want the excitement of France, Spain, Germany or Portugal. It feels like we could only get that in a final now.

Yep. My gut is that Southgate still isn't going to change much, probably only Mainoo for Gallagher. The positives from the end of the last game will be seen as options from the subs bench. I wonder if he thinks things have even been that bad. He might have convinced himself that it's like 2020 and we'll improve with each round.

It certainly is, but I think most people over-estimate how likely something like this is. They look at the teams and think England on paper are better than them all, but fail to realise how statistically likely or unlikely things are. I was essentially the same until the 2018 World Cup, when fivethirtyeight.com demonstrated the probabilities of winning. Even though England were on the easier side of the draw, I was shocked to find that our chance of making a final was in the 20%s. The reasons are simple. Even if you have a 75% chance of winning each game (extremely high in a game like football), that soon adds up to become only 42% by 3 games. There's a very similar thing on Optajoe now and England are again favourites, because of the draw that we have. However, we are only at 20% to win and 55% to reach the semi-finals. This essentially means statistically we have an almost 1 in 2 chance of not being in the Semi-Final. This would be seen as abject failure, yet in reality it's a very likely scenario. Similarly, most people would be shocked to find that France only have a 13% chance of winning the tournament. Had they topped the group and got on our side, they would be favourites.