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The Phantom Horseman

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The Phantom Horseman last won the day on December 8 2020

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  1. No, not at all. I think we should definitely be clear favourites to beat Fax, but I also think Toulouse should be favourites to win promotion. I just don't think either (potential) game is quite the foregone conclusion it's being portrayed as.
  2. 10-8 after 34 minutes and 3 of our 5 tries were flukey to say the least. We bombed a couple too mind, but you've missed the point, the score didn't really reflect the game.
  3. Probably the two misleading Fev results of the season for anyone who didn't see the games were our 6-23 defeat at home to Toulouse and our 54-22 win against Halifax. I think a lot of neutrals have looked at those results and decided it's a foregone conclusion we'll beat Fax and equally certain we'd then get hammered at Toulouse. Toulouse were worthy winners when they played us but the game was in the balance for an hour until Fev's horrific error count took its toll. Equally, Fev were well on top at the finish against Fax but we scored a number of tries that were a bit flukey and the first half in particular was a very tight affair.
  4. We're just getting into practice for when we have a match thread every week on the General Forum next year
  5. Thank you for posting this, it's really interesting stuff, to some of us anyway, and also highlights one of the basic scientific principles, that it's just as important to publish evidence that appears to disprove theories as evidence that appears to prove them. On a more anecdotal note, I recently tracked the error count in two games I watched where I thought it had had an overall impact on the outcome. Both games involved Toulouse in the Championship this year. The first came when they beat Featherstone 23-6 (disclaimer: I'm a Featherstone fan). The error count was 19 by Featherstone, 9 by Toulouse and as you mention above, the scale of difference in errors may have had a big impact on the outcome (not to mention the fact that 19 errors would be an outlier at this level). The second game was Oldham v Toulouse. Toulouse made 18 errors but won the game 34-6 (I didn't count Oldham's errors but thought they were no greater than average). However, virtually every formline from this season suggests that Toulouse should be handicapped as 50+ points better than Oldham, and again this outlying error count has to be seen as having an impact on the winning margin (at the risk of stating the obvious). My probably questionable conclusion was that the impact of the error count amost certainly isn't linear, although other variables, such as the opponents' error count, may neutralise the impact. But it's great to see some properly researched data such as yours.
  6. Keys to winning this one for me: 1. As always, keep the errors within a reasonable range. I'll be surprised if they can beat us with a lower completion rate than us. 2. Keep defensive discipline on the left hand side of the field. We have 2 players on that side whose inclination is to look for the interception, that's paid off a lot this season but think we need to be tighter in the play-offs. I'm hoping Chisholm (assuming he's selected!) remembers the York game away in 2019 where Harris baited him into going for the intercept with a double pump which Chissy bit on leading to a walk-in score that proved decisive... Harris taunted him quite aggressively after that try so he should remember. Harris is very good at that double pump/delayed pass (did it again against Whitehaven) and plays on that side of the field, and Woodburn-Hall created a try against us in the league fixture by the same method against Chissy. 3. By the same token - attack them on their right edge, I think some of their goal-line defence on that side when I have seen them this season has been poor and the try they conceded to Ryan King against Whitehaven was dreadfully soft defence. That should be where Chissy comes into his own. We might need to be patient and hopefully will not be thinking it will be easy after putting 50+ on them last time as we did score a few freak tries that day, but hopefully we'll have too much for them as the game goes on.
  7. I thought Batley were really efficient and solid in the first half. You're never going to look impressive coming uphill in the second half in a tight game and they didn't help themselves with a poor completion rate, plus they got the wrong end of a couple of 50-50 calls, but they still played the better football. They're a well-coached team, suspect Toulouse will be a step too far for them but hope I'm wrong.
  8. Ah ok. He's actually probably going to be right about Newcastle being stronger if rumours about their recruitment turn out to be right. Though whether that turns them into legit promotion contenders we'll have to see.
  9. He said battle for the play-offs, not battle to finish top or achieve promotion. Otherwise why would he leave out all 4 teams who have made the semi finals, three of whom will still be in the Championship next season? He's just listed 3 teams who might progress to challenge for the play-offs next season.
  10. King ploughs through some feeble Fax defence to score for Whitehaven. Walmsley misses the kick again though. 22-14.
  11. Whitehaven hit back with a try in the corner. Almost a carbon copy of their first with an offload that just about squirted backwards.
  12. Another Halifax try following an Aiye error, good delayed pass by Harris. After their great season Haven not looking like a top 6 team in the first half, need to bounce back in a big way.
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