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Wholly Trinity

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  1. There are 750 confirmed cases in St. Helens, out of a local population of 180,585 In St. Helens there were 172 coronavirus-related deaths up to the 15 May. In this area 27% of all deaths involved coronavirusbetween 29 Feb and 15 May ... Only? 23% case mortality rate?
  2. I don't know the current situation in Wakefield as I don't live there atm. As the number of cases has gone down and the testing has gone up, it's likely that the testing regime is more adequate now. The point on the testing was not really to do with the current situation, rather the historical/overall record. 250 deaths (to 15th May) from only 745 confirmed/tested cases is a 33.6% case mortality rate. This suggests that they were only testing a tiny fraction of those with the virus. There's no way a third of all symptomatic cases were dying.
  3. Police say a 36-year-old Florida man is accused of stabbing a woman with a fork over an undercooked potato.
  4. Got that from the BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274 but the disparity may be that the confirmed cases were only those with positive tests. The deaths included all that mentioned covid on the death certificate. Suggests there's been next to no actual testing.
  5. Unfortunately, the figures for Wakefield District are a little further down the line. There are 745 confirmed cases in Wakefield, out of a local population of 348,312 In Wakefield there were 250 coronavirus-related deaths up to the 15 May. In this area 23% of all deaths involved coronavirus between 29 Feb and 15 May
  6. The district where I live has a total population of 450k, but as yet there have been only 3 confirmed positive cases, all of whom have recovered. One of those three is the person on the right in this poster (deputy head of district). Unfortunately, everyone here seems to be getting more complacent and things are getting back to normal, although schools are still closed.
  7. The comparison graph I didn't post yesterday was the number of cases reported daily. This is even more damning and would seem to imply that the death toll in Brazil is likely to explode in the next week to 10 days. It could well double in that timescale and overtake that of the UK. If anyone was still ambivalent as to whether 'lockdown' saves lives or not, this should be the clincher. Where would we have been now without those actions? This is not over. Stay Safe. Stay at home. Save lives. P.S. Does anyone know why the reported cases in the UK went down by 525 from 248,818 to 248,293 yesterday? It's been going up by 3000 a day recently. Has any explanation been given?
  8. Looking at Brazil again and comparing with the UK. Brazil currently has 16,941 deaths (with 740 yesterday). The UK was at the same stage in mid-April when we had just passed the peak (20th April, 16,509 total deaths, 449 that day) Brazil does not appear to be at or near its peak. It seems inevitable that Brazil will have significantly more fatalities than the UK. *the red line is when the UK adjusted figures to include those outside hospital (5,033 on 30th April) P.S. Don't know why I swapped the colours over. ??
  9. I know some people like to look at mortality rate per capita to compare countries, but I would say it has limited value. It shows perhaps the relative stress on the health services, but as even within countries the outbreaks are often regionalised the comparison is not even. If you were to put on my capitalist hat, you could posit that most of the victims were not economically active, so the impact on the economy would be limited. Anyway, graph of the day: *countries smaller than Luxembourg were excluded. Data up to 18/5/20.
  10. A couple of nice explainers from YouTube: 3blue1brown on contact tracing Primer simulation of disease spread
  11. I use number of deaths to number of positive cases as a guide for how broad the testing is. The premise is that, for developed countries, the death rate is a constant, which means this ratio will be smaller if you test more than just the worst symptomatic cases. For an individual country, if the slope goes up it implies that the scope of testing is being reduced and vice versa. So for this graph you could infer that the UK, Spain, Italy and Sweden are testing more narrowly than other countries. The graph from the start of May looks like this: Which suggests that the UK is indeed increasing the scope of its testing. An increase in testing would always increase the proportion of positive cases detected, but the proportion of positive to negative results would decrease. (*When you have a government who knows the price of everything & the value of nothing, they'll probably count cost of postage, so sending them first class will improve the data - sorry a bit political)
  12. Interesting story from Nigeria from the BBC where the virus is being spread by children being returned en masse to their home villages. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52617551
  13. Either that or it means "we lost track of your test in the chaos, please try again"
  14. Isn't that the point? We need to identify people who have antibodies and are likely to have some immunity to the virus. If someone has had a mild dose of the disease or was asymptomatic and doesn't have any antibodies, they are effectively irrelevant and are just part of the susceptible group.
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