North Queensland are standing by under-fire coach Todd Payten – but he needs to lead the Cowboys back to the finals to repay the faith.

HEADING into this NRL campaign, Todd Payten looked like he was locked in a three-horse race with Anthony Seibold and Shane Flanagan to be the first coach sacked in 2026.

Flying home from North Queensland’s season-opening defeat to Newcastle in Las Vegas, Payten may have had his nose in front. After a second-up loss to the Wests Tigers, he seemed to gallop further in front.

But then a funny thing happened: the Cowboys started winning.

Victories over Gold Coast, fast-falling Melbourne and St George Illawarra might not have been huge scalps, but a fourth consecutive win over Brisbane in a classic Good Friday derby made a statement.

The run also ensured Payten outlasted Seibold at Manly — who broke the Cowboys’ streak under new boss Kieran Foran — as well as Flanagan at the Dragons.

However, North Queensland’s inconsistency — a quality that’s become its signature under Payten — has left a lingering question mark.

The jungle drums beat loudly even before the season kicked off.

Chad Townsend, who played under Payten between 2022 and 2024, told Sydney radio station SEN: “He’s probably now the most under-pressure coach in the competition … He’s the only coach at the moment heading into the 2026 season off contract.”

Australian international Corey Parker said on SEN Queensland: “Todd Payten is well and truly under the pump, because with the squad they have, and the players that they have, and the international experience, the Origin experience that they have, they need to produce on the park.”

Payten clung to his job after a tumultuous 2025. The Cowboys lost their first three games then chased the peloton all season, eventually finishing 12th.

The issue was their leaky defence, which haemorrhaged 684 points — an average of 28.5 per game, and worse than any club bar equal-last Gold Coast.

Instead of sacking Payten, the club completely overhauled the rest of the coaches’ box.

Out went Justin Morgan, Steve Sheppard and Ben Rauter for the highly rated trio of Blake Green, Paul Wellens and Jordan McLean.

Green was a leading contender for Newcastle’s top job before Justin Holbrook’s appointment, while St Helens legend Wellens arrived after his three-year stint in charge of Saints and McLean added fresh blood straight after hanging up his boots.

The quality of the support crew left Payten with no excuses heading into 2026.

Pre-season, Payten told the Sydney paper the Daily Telegraph: “I’m off-contract … I know that.

“Last year wasn’t fun at all. It was the toughest year of my life as a professional coach, so I took a lot of lessons out of that, I reflected a lot and changed some things that I’m doing.

“The proof will be in the pudding.”

The Cowboys have missed the finals in three of the five seasons Payten has been at the helm.

The former Raiders, Roosters and Tigers prop joined the Townsville club in 2021, after guiding the Warriors through their Covid-plagued 2020 campaign.

Year one was a slog, finishing above only wooden spooners Canterbury.

But the Cowboys exploded in 2022, finishing third then overcoming Cronulla in a golden-point extra-time play-off. They ultimately fell four points short of the decider against Parramatta in a home preliminary final.

2023 was a step back, with a 12-12 record only good enough for 11th place. But they bounced back to the top eight the year after, before that rough 2025.

Inconsistency is an obvious theme.

Just look at their form line this year, which has more twists and turns than a tangled garden hose.

Things looked rosy until a crushing home loss to the Sea Eagles … then another to the under-manned Eels … then a 40-14 demolition against the Dolphins leading into the bye.

And after coming up short 38-20 at New Zealand Warriors, North Queensland went and beat table-topping Penrith Panthers 26-12 on their home turf before their Round 18 bye.

Their home ground in the Townsville tropics — three hours’ flight north of Sydney and 10 degrees hotter in the depths of winter — should be a fortress. But they’ve barely won more than half their games there under Payten.

And when they win, too much is left to too few.

Creative full-back Scott Drinkwater is one of the NRL’s most damaging playmakers on his day, and when the Cowboys salute, his fingerprints are all over the good work.

But fans are frustrated by his defensive frailties and never knowing whether he’ll deliver rocks or diamonds with ball in hand. And now he’s off to the Dragons next year anyway.

Teak-tough half Tom Dearden has blossomed into an Australian international under Payten’s tutelage, but his ankle injury this season has forced others to do the heavy lifting.

There are positives — especially with Dearden’s return on the horizon to partner Jake Clifford, who continues to improve.

They’ll also be desperate for strike back-rower Jeremiah Nanai to overcome his shoulder issues.

Reed Mahoney — who’s replaced NSW Origin hooker and Roosters recruit Reece Robson — has proved a good addition to the spine.

Payten has reinvented his back line with home-grown products Tom Chester, Zac Laybutt and Jaxon Purdue.

Queensland rep Reuben Cotter adds the heart and soul in the pack.

And perhaps the best story of 2026 has been Jason Taumalolo winding back the clock to rekindle his best form, after battling knee issues in recent years.

Payten might be the lone survivor from that pre-season three-horse sack race. But, still yet to sign a contract, he wouldn’t want to miss the finals from here.

In a quirk of the fixture list, North Queensland were the last team to have a bye. They finish the season with three weekends off in the final 13 rounds of the home-and-away campaign.

Heading into Round 15, the Cowboys had won as many games as the third-placed Roosters … but the competition points awarded for byes left them outside the top eight.

Because of the competition points awarded for byes, they only need to win half their remaining eight games to accrue the tally they need to make sure of a finals berth.

Achieve that, and the only NRL coach with no contract for 2027 will do everything he can to pen a new deal.

North Queensland have stood by their man. It’s crunch time for Payten to repay the faith.

<strong>First published in <span style=”text-decoration: underline;”><a href=”https://www.totalrl.com/rugby-league-world/”>Rugby League World magazine</a></span>, Issue 522 (July 2026)</strong>