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ckn last won the day on June 14

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About ckn

  • Birthday August 9

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  1. And none of the big things are really worrying you? Even one or two of the big things would be enough to topple a government in normal times because they're almost unmanageable, we've got a pile of them so big that it's beyond any rational belief that we'll get through without a major economic and structural impact to our country.
  2. You make it sound like we may have to do without a couple of unnecessary luxuries for a few days.
  3. Despite this story being pitched around the "divorce bill", it really just highlights the state we're in. For the avoidance of doubt and to stop that argument dead: I'm not advocating we reverse Brexit, withdraw our notice to leave or anything else, I'm just talking about what has to happen to allow us to leave SAFELY . There's three real big bucket lists of things to do: 1. Things done at EU level that we'll have to do ourselves. For example, trade deals around the world, regulatory bodies, etc. 2. Things funded at EU level that we'll have to organise. For example, regional grants, academic funding. 3. Everything else that's changing. For example, immigration from the EU. Point 1. A typical major trade agreement takes 10 years to agree because it really does take that long to work through everything trade between two countries. For example, the US could insist we take their chicken, beef and healthcare parasites in return for even sitting down at the table, and those are not even 1% of the whole trade we'd expect, then you have Trump's policy of any new trade deal being a net positive for the US and compare it to the fact that we've got a very healthy trade surplus with the US now. The US will play hard-ball and that's just one country that's not even our biggest trade partner. We can't even rely on WTO terms that'll almost instantly add massive penalties on trade in and out of our country as they'd be good-will only until we got formal accession to the WTO as an independent country; we're not allowed by WTO rules to even apply for accession to the WTO until we leave the EU meaning we're really at the mercy of any country that wants screw out a deal with us. China and other major net importers to the UK will probably quickly arrange an interim deal that secures the status quo for their goods in return for not hammering us on our exports to them before settling down to arrange a proper deal over years. Major importers of our goods will have us over a barrel in terms of deals as we must keep exporting to them or we go bust, as above, the US is one of these countries. Then you get all the governance bodies that we must still adhere to to keep trading with the EU but now without any insider influence. Again, take agriculture, if we suddenly wipe out many of our food safety policies to give our farmers an even playing field with cheap US imports then we'll automaticallly hit the EU's protections on things entering the EU food chain. So, again, who do we prefer, meeting the US prerequisites to even talk to them or essentially killing off exports to the EU for those items? Our politicians in the same party and part of the same cabinet team can't even agree on chicken! May is so far in the corner that she can't even afford to slap both sides down and say "this is our policy" because she knows it'll be a decisive point against either the US or EU. And that's all before we even discuss the chaos that is the Euratom withdrawal and the impacts on our nation. Or the airline regulatory regime. Or any number of the other institutions that we can't belong to just in case the ECJ could possibly be an arbitrator. 2. Are we going to blanket guarantee the same funding as regions, academic institutes and other bodies get now from the EU? What about agricultural subsidies? That'd be the easiest option but then you still have the administrative burden of them, we've a year at best to get it all set up to allow for as seamless a transition as possible. And then, where's the money coming from for all that? The capital setup costs alone will be shocking. If we're not going for a blanket guarantee of funding, we'd be best telling people now so that they've 18 months or so to wind down things. Or would that just be too much like trouble for the government? 3. On the theme of agriculture, what about the immigrant labour that does the vast majority of work? They'll never meet any "Australian style" points system threshold that keeps getting touted, do we keep letting them in and keep our agriculture industry working or do we just wade in May-style and ban them all because they're all furriners who we don't need? If we do let THEM in, then what about all the other immigrants who do jobs that the British don't want to do any longer? I guess that May doesn't want to actually make a decision on this because there's not a single hope in hell that it'll be the right one, I doubt there is a right one that wouldn't sink her party down to a kicking worse than in 1997. Even then, the government is talking about getting immigration down into the low 10,000s. In the year ending December 2016, 260,000 NON-EU people moved here (Government immigration stats). How will leaving the EU fix that by even one person fewer? Then remember that the Indians have made it clear that they'll want relaxed immigration rules for their citizens if we want a trade deal with them. Then remember that we've broken the NHS enough that we need to import even more clinicians. Then remember that we've broken our social care system so badly that we need to import even more minimum wage care home workers. Overall, our government is acting in a despicable and cowardly fashion out of sheer self-preservation that can't last. They MUST start making very hard decisions and they must be made very soon otherwise we're going to get an economic kicking that makes the 2008 economic downturn look like we lost a £5 note down the back of a sofa. Theresa May can't even admit that she's no hope of getting net immigration down to 100,000, never mind into 5 figures, she daren't say that because it'd be the end of her as PM and that can't be allowed to happen. If you're going to say that's all rubbish then I invite you to show me why. Show me how all of those things will be fixed? So, I couldn't care if you're a hard-nosed Leaver or Remainer, surely everyone can see that this government is running us into disaster simply because it doesn't dare admit it has no clue what it's doing.
  4. Police say "reasonable grounds" to suspect Kensington Council and the Tenant Management Organisation of corporate manslaughter. I'm quite pleased with the police action into this, they're essentially pretending the inquiry isn't happening and they're just going about it like any other high profile crime.
  5. Absolutely. It's quite a simple formula really, if you have a certain number of people in an area then you need a relatively defined number of police, fire, doctors, nurses, etc. to provide the services needed. It's not even local newspaper newsworthy for a large new-build estate to be built with no additional GP capacity, no thought to the additional strain on the police, hospitals, pharmacies, and so on. Many towns have increased by up to 10%-20% in the last two decades with almost no increase in infrastructure to cope. If unemployment is so low then these people are earning in increasing numbers, where's the additional tax going if it's not going to fund the infrastructure to support that low-unemployment increasing population?
  6. Premium movies that are sold through iTunes and other digital sources without subtitles. My hearing isn't the greatest and we're trying to watch Arrival, there's a scene with a heavy helicopter noise that's drowning out almost all other stuff and a fairly important scene. Neither I nor the wife can understand it and the sodding movie doesn't come with subtitles. It's mandatory in the US for all films on sites like iTunes to have closed captioning so it's not as if there isn't any available, it's just that the film distributors don't want to pay the tiny extra license fee for the subtitles to be shown abroad. Thwaites.
  7. Yes and no. Gove and Fox, along with Boris and the others need to learn only to speak about matters of substance that are either not controversial or agreed as policy. May should slap them down and a firing of one to set an example would help. On the other side, if it's a must for the US and a must not for us then that needs to be fixed now or we really will be into the decade long negotiations that are routine. We either have a quick two year negotiation where things are dealt with bluntly or a ten year one where normal political rules around dealing with things sensitively apply.
  8. The National is the Scottish left-wing version of the Daily Express. Almost unreadable.
  9. The absolute worst has happened, zombie Thatcher. She's out there killing people. (and yes, this post was written flippantly)
  10. You can ask for a letter of explanation (can't remember the real term for it) against your credit file with the big ratings agencies. This forces anyone doing credit checks to manually read it rather than do purely automated scoring. It adds time and some smaller credit suppliers will automatically reject anything that can't be done automatically. You can also ask the company nicely to change the record based on your past behaviour, they may but it's rare.
  11. If Gove and Fox can't even agree on cabinet collective responsibility over chicken then we're truly stuffed when it comes to the really big stuff.
  12. Don't buy the lies... what you're reading there is opinions from people with a bias at the Adam Smith Institute. Here's the original UN report that shows that the two types of salmonella in the US are 4 and 5 times higher than in the EU. A blatant and direct lie about the report thinking people wouldnt read it and just do as you did and repeat their lie. Additionally, it's not illegal to pump chickens full of last-generation antibiotics, antihistamines, steroids and ketamine and plenty of independent credible research has shown that they are routine (see link below, I can't embed links as I'm on my phone). The EU works on the rule that you have to prove something is safe before it's useable in the food chain, the US works on the rule that you have to prove something is bad before it's banned; the US farming lobby is so powerful that things just don't get banned. (Reuters link on the misuse of critical antibiotics in chicken rearing: Please, for the sake of your own sanity, please don't buy this drivel from people who want to lower our food standards for personal profit. If you must, follow Gove's approach if you want to take a Tory side.
  13. I don't engage with them at all, I just hang up when I recognise a list dialler cold-call, if they don't even know who I am then I'm not going to engage with them. For those who engage with me by name and get me hooked then I'm generally polite and disengage quickly. There's a special lot who spam me because of things I've signed up for, e.g. when you buy things from Currys they want your name & address for anything more complex than batteries for the "warranty". If it's a throwaway item, I give them my cat's name. That's the tell-tale it's a cold-caller who has bought my details despite me being on the TPS. The calls usually go: Them: "Can I speak to Oliver please?" Me: "Sorry, he can't come to the phone now." Them: "When will he be available so we can call back?" Me: "Not sure, I'll ask him when he's stopped licking his bum under the dining room table". Them: "........" (long pause while they think what to say next) Then it's usually (click) or "OK, we'll call another time (click)". I did have one yesterday with an abysmally strong Indian accent (grade 3 call-centre staff they usually call them, grade 1 is fluent English, grade 2 is easily understandable English with a moderately strong accent, grade 3 is the equivalent of someone from Clacton going on holiday to Marbella and doing their best to ask for something in Spanish by adding "o" to the end of English words). I can understand the grade 3 lot fairly well as my wife's family are Indian and those in India and in the older generation in their 80s really do struggle with English. "Sir, I UK Insurance Claim, your accident, we get you money, we know you an accident, give me your name." I did find that rather personal, I know I was a quick behind the nightclub job by my parents and really wasn't intended but no need to rub my nose in it...
  14. Cable is completely damned by his service in the Coalition. A case in point is the Royal Mail sell-off that was directly his responsibility to administer. Either: 1. He was grossly incompetent in underpricing it by so much; or 2. He was siding with the Tories in selling it off underpriced and with early preference to friendly groups of investors. There really is no other way of reading it. Either he was grossly incompetent or was an outright Tory in his cuts to the state. Neither of which is ever going to get me to think of him as worthy as leader of what is still a publicly centre-left ideology party.
  15. The NFU were very pro-EU in their official stance.