Maximus Decimus

Very disappointing from a Scottish perspective, it was always going to be hard but gifting them goals made it an impossible task. Each time I did the prediction thing, there was a team in the 8 with 2 points. If there isn't then they're in trouble. Not only are they -3 but they only scored 1 goal so if it is a tie with another country that's the minimum they could have scored. It also hasn't started well. The two groups that have finished were ones that could have easily gone in their favour but haven't. The South Africa win especially was one that I didn't have down as finishing above them.

I thought England was the more obvious choice for that!

It is mad that this will be the 5th time Scotland have played Brazil at the World Cup. This is their record against other top nations: Germany - twice Netherlands - once France - once England - zero Italy - zero Argentina - zero Spain - zero

This has been a real point of mine, but it will no doubt get lost in the media frenzy. Getting to the last 32 of a 48 team tournament after losing 2 games isn't an incredible achievement. It's historic for them to make a knockout game but at this level they were always going to sooner or later. I saw a well-liked comment underneath a podcast saying Clarke was the greatest Scottish manager ever for making two Euros and a WC. I replied that it was nonsense when they've qualified for 16 team WCs and 8 team Euros. That's effectively a Euros QF before they've kicked a ball.

It does expose the unfairness though. They brought in games at the same time because of the infamous Austria-West Germany game. We now have a situation where in a couple of groups later on there are teams playing each other on 3 points and even one where they are on 2. They will know that a draw will do them both.

I just can't see it this time. Every time I've done the predictions (based on a 1 goal defeat) they've been very comfortable in the 8. Lose by 2/3 and things get a bit more worrying. After the opening game I stuck a bet on Scotland to go out in the groups. I thought it likely they'd lose to Morocco and Brazil by 2 goals each. I cashed out a few days back, the unusual number of draws and then heavy defeats for some has benefitted them.

So Scotland have the chance to make history tonight. They could be the first team to make it through to the knockouts after losing two games! Joking aside, I've filled in a WC simulator a couple of times since the first round based on what results I thought likely and each time there was a 3rd place team with 2 points. It only takes a couple of surprise results before things can get worrying. Lose by 1 and they'll basically make it, any more and it's down to fate although I think 2 will still be OK. I'm sure they'd love a positive result to seal it tonight (and don't listen to the pundits a draw will 100% be enough) but even if they don't they're due a bit of luck, especially after the 1974 tournament. They were in a group with Brazil and ended with a win and 2 draws and still didn't get through!

There is much of this that I agree with. Before the tournament, I was talking about the idea that England have underachieved. Over the span of 60 years this is true, but I don't necessarily agree with the idea that we should have won tournaments etc World Cups are every 4 years, and many countries feel they have a genuine shout of winning one at some point. Brazil, Argentina, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Netherlands etc are all nations who would expect to win it at some point in a generation. Where we have definitely underachieved is in the performance side of things. Even in tournaments where we've done well as in gone far, we have very often looked dreadful. We can all think of games against minnows where we haven't necessarily lost but been slow, clueless and created few chances. I'm thinking games like Trinidad in '06 and Algeria in '10 and even both Slovenia and Slovakia in the last tournament as games that really epitomise this. I posited the possibility that it would be nice for us to actually play well for once and the Croatia game with all its flaws demonstrated that maybe this time would be different on that front. We might still not win it, but at least we'd go out playing a good brand of football. Last night was a definite reversion on that front. It certainly wasn't as bad as some of those lows, but it wasn't a great sign. Other teams can have shock results like this but still create many chances and look good at times. Until the last 10/15 we never looked like scoring.

We do seem to have a bizarre issue with 2nd games don't we?

And right there is why another knockout game worries me. We always have the possibility of being dragged into extra time or penalties by a lower placed side.

Only loosely related but if anyone fancies a bit of an interesting story, check out the GAA catfish episodes on the 2 Johnnies podcast.

Made me feel nostalgic that game, England being pretty terrible in a big tournament. We've always struggled against teams who set up defensively like that. Never really looked like scoring.

So apparently its going to be about 20 degrees and light rain for today's game in Boston. I don't think many people thought the players would be playing in nice cool conditions while all of us at home sweated our b******s off!

There's a pretty easy way to get around it in my book.... I'm not sure we're seeing a re-alignment, football will always produce shock results. The reality is that the new 48 team World Cup means that the established nations are all but guaranteed to go through. The proof of the pudding is in the eating: which big World Cup nation is in genuine threat of going out in the groups with a game or even two games to go? Answer - none. You have to go to the middle nations, and the highest ranked team in genuine trouble at this time are Uruguay ranked 19th and Ecuador who qualified from CONCACAF in 2nd place. Belgium aren't in the trouble they should be in because they only need a draw against a team ranked 84th in the world. Bear in mind Germany haven't made it out of the groups in the last 2 world cups, and in 2014 Portugal, Italy, England and Spain all didn't make it out. I think by enlarge those days are gone. If 2014 was now, only England might have gone out points wise and the group would undoubtedly have been easier.

England in 2010 were pretty shocking too and we really scraped through the groups. We genuinely could have gone out, the final game against Slovakia was tight and tense. I have a habit of watching old England disasters, and a particular favourite is the German defeat that year, watching the pundits saying England should win in straightforward fashion. I mean it's hard to believe they ever thought it, we were so bad in that game.