Toby Chopra

It's an average though, right? So it's less about how often you're on TV and more about what audience you pull when you get your chance. And TV scores are one of several sub-gradings where there are only two levels - you're either above or below the 150k average benchmark with a 0.25 points bonus on offer. We know which SL teams will definitely get above 150k. And we know teams outside SL won't. So it's only really key for those smaller superleague clubs: when you get your shot on TV, do you keep up a good average akin to the top clubs? If not you get lumped in with everyone else. So the TV grading actually doesn't give an advantage to SL incumbents over Championship challengers, unless you're already an top audience draw.

Now we can see the small print, I struggle to see how London ever gets back into Superleague under this structure. The team that went up in 2018 wouldn't have gone up under this structure, and I don't see how London ever builds up the necessary financial strength outside superleague. Catchment or director investment points are too small to overcome this. London only really "works" as a well supported club when in Superleague (and even then it'll need several years of investment to get there) Tier 2 rugby league just doesn't cut through for people in London and there's no latent fan base to be engaged unlike in places like Fev or Widnes etc. Similar concerns about Toulouse too.

Have to agree. Using local authority boundaries, particularly in places like London which are so integrated, is misguided. There's plenty of other statistical measures out there that could work better - travel-to-work areas for instance. Personally I don't think it's needed anyway, potential isn't just a reflection of population, the types of people you're targeting and how you talk to them is more important. But it's only a small fraction, so not the end of the world

Now we can see the detail of how the sub-gradings are scored, it's striking how many of them are actually quite simple in structure: many have just 2 or 3 levels which just correspond to a reasonably well functioning SL club, and all the rest. And the points difference in these levels is actually very small, mostly just between 0.1 and 0.25. Now, over a number of categories that marginal points advantage does pile up into something substantial, and it'll be enough to protect the Wakeys and Hudds of this world, which as previously stated I have reservations about. But it also confirms that if a SL clubs starts to spiral downwards - eg London 2014 or Widnes 2018 - then they're in trouble, but will probably get one more season to try and turn it around. Is that a good thing? I suppose so, one bad year shouldn't be a death sentence. But I hope the authorities also have powers to direct that recovery or the protection is wasted. Would giving David Hughes another year to play silly b*gg*ers in 2015 have done anything for the game? I don't think so.

I don't agree we gave up trying or settled for what we had. It's just there was a small window before the football and pro-RU bandwagons really got rolling where our efforts gained traction. Once our rivals started picking up momentum - and the SL war ended - then any further progress was just much harder to achieve and we inevitably levelled off. In concrete terms, how could we have pushed harder?

Agree, all this context is crucial for understanding why things didn't keep growing in a rapid way, mistakes notwithstanding.

The recent RFL accounts suggest it just about broke even. But that included the government grant. Virtually no major sporting event happens these days without some sort of government support, so if the NSW/Q'land/NZ govts aren't willing to provide support for a 2025 RL world cup then it's inevitably going to be a stripped down one. Which is depressing, but I'd still rather it happens than nothing at all.

An 8 team world cup would be terrible. No world cup at all would be worse.

So I looked that up and indeed in the 2018 and 2019 results the RFL says the CCF attendance was worse than budgeted for, 2018 being Catalans, and 2019 being the slump to 62k. In other non-COVID years it has not made such a statement. But I think the point I'm making about 2022 still stands - the RFL made the assumption, as some on here seem to, that as we had downsized to a 60k stadium, we should be able to largely sell it out, and budgeted as such. It didn't prove to be the case, in fact the attendance took another leg lower and we missed the budget again. There could be several reasons for that, and I think this year will be an important test- first year back at Wembley with no COVID factors. But it shows that heading to a smaller ground isn't an easy solution to the CCF's problems, and may even exacerbate it.

I'd also point out for those that argue that we should quit holding the CCF at Wembley because it's too big and too expensive, the RFL say in the results that moving the final to Spurs (albeit unavoidable) produced a worse financial results than expected. Downsizing isn't always so straightforward.

It doesn't say that at all. The cut in distribution to Championship and L1 was due to the known reduction in TV revenues and planned and budgeted for at the start nof the year. We can debate whether that's fair, but it was a known factor that hasn't been caused by the RFL's unexpected loss.

What do you mean by "how can they get it so wrong in a world cup year?" What difference does a world cup after the end of the season make? If there's going to be an effect, It'll be this year

Honestly, my priority would have been the British game not having to carry any losses - which we don't seem to have done. After all, it's not like the RLWC is an event that people are queuing up to host. We did the world a favour just by taking the risk of putting it on, as we can see by the dire situation of 2025. If we've managed to pass some money onto a IRL after all that, it's a bonus.

Indeed, that's my reading. It basically broke even. RFL costs were higher than budgeted due to the insurance premium hike, seemingly covering the costs of the mid season international and redundancies, while revenues were lower than budgeted, largely due to the CCF performing worse than expected. An expected 394k profit turned into a 987k loss - a 1.4 mln swing, but largely reflecting the points above. Not the World Cup. I suppose if we wanted some hope, any positive World Cup effect would turn up in the 2023 accounts such as in higher events revenues, so maybe that will close the gap. Redundancy costs will also be lower.

I think Leigh or HKR winning the cup wouldn't do much for the game/cup in isolation - in fact it might do the opposite: show that the cup isn't a good measure of the best teams. But if their victory was further evidence of said club becoming one of the top group of teams, I think it would send a more positive signal. This is what the Catalans cup win did - alongside ever improving SL performance it cemented perceptions of them being in the top tier. If Leigh or HKR could win the cup AND quality for the SL playoffs (and maybe even knock off one of the big dogs) then the cumulative effect could be very positive. Both clubs could potentially do this.

Agree with that. If it was part of a coherent plan to boost the game elsewhere with the CCF while providing alternative major events for London I could be on board. But we know it wouldn't be that, it would just be an ill-thought short term decision that would fast-track the decline of the cup with nothing in return.

I think that's an important distinction which reflects what heritage and diaspora means for different nations. When Samoa and Tonga play RL, not only does the island grind to halt the global diasporas tune in as well. Remember the Vegas and Utah Samoan watch parties during the world cup? The rise of Pasifika is the best thing that's happened to international RL in years and we shouldn't do anything to cut that back especially due to a very rigid idea of nationality. On the otherhand, when Scotland play you feel like 95% of the country is unaware and that is worthy of debate in terms of what level they play at.

To a large extent we could do a lot of that already without selling ourselves lock, stock and barrel. Games at 1pm Saturday and noon Sunday UK time to follow the NRL evening games is a good package to sell to someone, while if the Aussies need paying to play internationals, so be it. I'd be willing to give them the lion's share of any tour profits for a decade if they signed a binding commitment to tour. It'd be worth it in the long run. The Aussie market isn't that huge to sell your soul for, but at the same time it's the biggest ready made rugby league audience on the planet, so why not package English RL to appeal to it?

Would be incredible if they could pull it off but will be tough at such short notice. Basically relying on the Pasifika population of NZ turning out in huge numbers for all the formats.

There's still something not quite right though. If I lived in US, Canada or Oz, I could watch those countries' top sports on ESPN, Sportsnet or Kayo for less than a premier league fan has to fork out here. Britons do seem to get particularly gouged, which is made even worse if it's not the PL you're subscribing for, like many of us.

Broadly agree, although I do think over the longer term the NRL boom will be a net positive for us, so there is a path for marginal improvement too.

This post took a strange turn...

Is there any evidence that Mike Danson wants to do that? Genuine question, I'm just interested in his motives. He's clearly not hostile to RL having invested, and being mates with IL. But saving WA is a much bigger commitment on his part, so I can't imagine him redirecting stadium revenues in a massive way towards the RL club, as that would harm WA.

Fair enough, I'd presumed there were rules about flogging off the ground after the Brighton scandal. Ideally both clubs should come out of this better off.

Well, unless he's completely lying in his public statements, his remarks today do sound like he cares about the football club. That doesn't necessarily mean bad news for the rugby club, but it doesn't sound like he's bought the Latics just to hand over the assets to Wigan RL. EFL probably have tougher ownership rules than we do anyway so doubt he could even if he wanted to