It should be set in stone by now. It should be available for anyone to examine (I know some of it is).
His uncertainty was probably due to a few things. Firstly, any Championship club which wishes to do so may apply for a SL licence and one of them (everyone assumes it will be Widnes) will be granted a licence in March. So far, so easy - one up, one down. Now it gets murky. All SL clubs and any Championship clubs who wish to do so, may apply for a licence in April and the best 13 will be given a licence in May (I think it's May). This would still likely produce one up, one down, but not necessarily. At this point, the rfl could decide to give, say, Halifax, a licence and demote a second SL club. Then it gets really unclear. Any club outside the Championship (I think they mean in France!) can be invited to play in SL with a licence. A third SL club demoted?
So, is it one up and one down? Probably, but nobody knows.
Confusing but correct. The things that are known are
1. One of the Championship clubs who meet the criteria laid down a couple of weeks ago will be awarded a license next March
2. There will be 14 SL clubs in 2012. That means only 13 additional clubs will be awarded a license.
3. These 13 could come from existing SL clubs, CC clubs who fail to get the automatic slot or new clubs with enough money who get enough "license points".
I think. Reality is that 99% chance it will be Widnes instead of one of the existing vulnerable SL clubs. Toulouse are the joker in the pack, but I think they would have had a better chance if Quins had gone belly up or Crusaders had failed.