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Richard de la Riviere

Member Since 30 Apr 2005
Offline Last Active Today, 01:45 AM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: General Election 2015

Yesterday, 10:58 PM

My moneys still on a Labour led coalition.  They will need the SNP, greens and Lib dems(?)!

Don't think it'll be a coalition as Sturgeon has all but ruled this out. It'll be a minority Labour government with supply and confidence agreements with the other left-wing parties. Whether or not that includes the lib dems probably depends on who their leader is (Labour would welcome Farron), but whatever happens I'd imagine they'll be keen to be back on the opposition benches.


In Topic: General Election 2015

Yesterday, 06:16 PM

Well he's just had great reviews from his speech in Leeds yesterday and northern Labour conference today and despite his character getting assassinated constantly its not stopping him.I would like to know why the other political leaders are not getting anyway near the same treatment from the media as Milliband?

This is fast turning into the most interesting aspect of the General Election.
 

The media are desperate for him to lose but they don't seem to know how to attack him effectively. They see him as another Kinnock and appear to think that the same line of attack will bring the same result.

 

But whereas Kinnock lost a centre-ground battle to Major in 1992 by failing to prevent the 2m Tory voters from 1987 who had switched their voting intention to Labour having fallen out of love with Thatcher from returning to the Tories, Miliband faces no such problems.

 

Labour's lead in the polls has fallen in the last 12 months because they have lost voters to the SNP and to the Greens, not to the Tories and this election hinges almost solely on how successful he is in getting them back. The current Green polling of 5-10% in particular looks extremely soft. And if the Mail, Sun and Telegraph carry on attacking Ed for being too left wing, and carry on handing him open goals like tax avoidance (having not learned the lesson from the Ralph Miliband episode), then they're going to hand him the keys to No10.

 


In Topic: General Election 2015

04 February 2015 - 10:04 PM

incredible day of polling as survation find that labour are ten points ahead of the lib dems in Sheffield hallam, which is nick clegg's seat. labour came 3rd in that seat in 2010.

 

if clegg and alexander lose their seats, it surely means that the lib dems will throw their lot in with labour.


In Topic: General Election 2015

04 February 2015 - 01:22 PM

As things stand now and seem to be developing, I doubt that UKIP will win a single seat. I also think that UKIP will cease to exist by the end of the year.

 

There will be a Labour minority government with SNP, Green and Plaid support on a  confidence and supply, division by division basis.

Carswell will hold on and surely Farage will win Thanet South. Reckless seems likely to win his so anything more than two would probably be a decent result. However, they'll come third in the vote so all their low number of seats will do is highlight how flawed FPTP is.


In Topic: General Election 2015

04 February 2015 - 11:17 AM

Hopefully, the price of a coalition would be someone else as PM.

 

 

The SNP have already said they won't do a deal with the Tories, so I don't think they'll have enough bargaining power to force a new Labour leader straightaway.