Blow Out Scores : SL vs NRL

[RayCee]

There have been some lop sided games in both SL and the NRL. RL luminary Phil Gould waded into the issue, questioning some player's professionalism in the NRL. I think it may be about squad quality and depth. To see if I could shed some light on the subject, I did some digging to see if there were differences with SL and the NRL.

I divided the 2022 season into thirds for SL and the NRL. I then tabulated points per match and winning margins. This is what I found with one round to go in both cases.

In SL: The first third produced an average of 41 points per match and an average winning margin of 15. The winning side scored 69% of the points. The second period was 44 and 16 (69% again). Third (with one round to go) 45 and 18 (70%).

The NRL: First third 39 points per match, 14 point margins and 69% of the points for the winner. Second 45 points, 16 point margins and 68%. Third 46 points, 18 point margins and 69%.

From that, both comps were to me surprisingly close. Both for points per match trended up as the season progressed. Winning margins went up too but at about the same rate. 

It's only looking at one season but as the 2022 season progressed, points scored increased and winning margins followed. Is this a case of lies and statistics or a storm in a teacup? 

[Dunbar]

3 minutes ago, RayCee said:

There have been some lop sided games in both SL and the NRL. RL luminary Phil Gould waded into the issue, questioning some player's professionalism in the NRL. I think it may be about squad quality and depth. To see if I could shed some light on the subject, I did some digging to see if there were differences with SL and the NRL.

I divided the 2022 season into thirds for SL and the NRL. I then tabulated points per match and winning margins. This is what I found with one round to go in both cases.

In SL: The first third produced an average of 41 points per match and an average winning margin of 15. The winning side scored 69% of the points. The second period was 44 and 16 (69% again). Third (with one round to go) 45 and 18 (70%).

The NRL: First third 39 points per match, 14 point margins and 69% of the points for the winner. Second 45 points, 16 point margins and 68%. Third 46 points, 18 point margins and 69%.

From that, both comps were to me surprisingly close. Both for points per match trended up as the season progressed. Winning margins went up too but at about the same rate. 

It's only looking at one season but as the 2022 season progressed, points scored increased and winning margins followed. Is this a case of lies and statistics or a storm in a teacup? 

I have looked at comparing score margins between Super League and the NRL before and come to much the same conclusion as you, that there is not that much difference. 

For what it is worth, my view is that it isn't the quality or depth of the players that makes the biggest difference, it is the quality of the coaches. 

Take the Storm, look at the number of times that Craig Bellamy has taken an average player from another club and helped them integrate into a winning machine of a team.

[Old Frightful]

Not sure I understand this thread.

Hull FC don't play in the NRL.

[RayCee]

12 minutes ago, Old Frightful said:

Not sure I understand this thread.

Hull FC don't play in the NRL.

What it means is Hull FC are lucky they don't play in the NRL. 

[Farmduck]

Here are some more numbers:

(I started with 2015 in case the recent rule changes have had an effect. In 2015 we didn't have all the 6-agains and still had scrum restarts.)

Average points per game NRL

2015:  40.73

2014: 41.18

2013:  41.07

2012:  41.03

2011:  39.13

2010:  42.33

This stayed in the same region until 2021 when it jumped from 41.76 in 2020 to 46.29 in 2021.

[RayCee]

1 hour ago, Dunbar said:

I have looked at comparing score margins between Super League and the NRL before and come to much the same conclusion as you, that there is not that much difference. 

For what it is worth, my view is that it isn't the quality or depth of the players that makes the biggest difference, it is the quality of the coaches. 

Take the Storm, look at the number of times that Craig Bellamy has taken an average player from another club and helped them integrate into a winning machine of a team.

I agree regarding coaches. However, my point was in regard to P Gould's opinion that blow out scores are down to some player's lack of professionalism. The increasing of points scored and margins as the season progresses puts emphasis on which squads lack quality in depth. 

[RayCee]

11 minutes ago, Farmduck said:

Here are some more numbers:

(I started with 2015 in case the recent rule changes have had an effect. In 2015 we didn't have all the 6-agains and still had scrum restarts.)

Average points per game NRL

2015:  40.73

2014: 41.18

2013:  41.07

2012:  41.03

2011:  39.13

2010:  42.33

This stayed in the same region until 2021 when it jumped from 41.76 in 2020 to 46.29 in 2021.

The six again would lead to more points.

Do your points include finals matches too?

Interestingly, 2022 doesn't look like it will reach the 46.29 average. 

[Farmduck]

1 minute ago, RayCee said:

The six again would lead to more points.

Do your points include finals matches too?

Interestingly, 2022 doesn't look like it will reach the 46.29 average. 

No, just regular season points.