The Gap

[Barley Mow]

6 minutes ago, sam4731 said:

When was the last time that 3 out of the 4 QF of the CC games look like foregone conclusions? (Of course nothing ever is). It just seems we're at a point that a ever shrinking amount of teams are competing at the top level.

With the cup though that is largely down to the luck of the draw.

If we had the same 8 teams but the draw came out differently, it could have been a lot harder to predict. For example:

Saints v Wigan

Hull KR v Catalan

Huddersfield v Wire

Castleford v Leigh

[phiggins]

5 minutes ago, Barley Mow said:

With the cup though that is largely down to the luck of the draw.

If we had the same 8 teams but the draw came out differently, it could have been a lot harder to predict. For example:

Saints v Wigan

Hull KR v Catalan

Huddersfield v Wire

Castleford v Leigh

Plus, I wouldn't say Catalans - Hudds is a foregone conclusion, of the back of a bruising game that Catalans had last week.

[sam4731]

11 minutes ago, Barley Mow said:

With the cup though that is largely down to the luck of the draw.

If we had the same 8 teams but the draw came out differently, it could have been a lot harder to predict. For example:

Saints v Wigan

Hull KR v Catalan

Huddersfield v Wire

Castleford v Leigh

But the point is that we are dependent on the draw for competitive matches, which shouldn't be the case at the QF stage. If we still had a Championship side I could understand but with 8 SL sides, we should have 4 competitive matches.

[phiggins]

7 minutes ago, sam4731 said:

But the point is that we are dependent on the draw for competitive matches, which shouldn't be the case at the QF stage. If we still had a Championship side I could understand but with 8 SL sides, we should have 4 competitive matches.

Yes, but there will always be anomalies of form. Leigh v Hull KR went to golden point last year. Hopefully will be a lot more competitive game later in the year, just right now, Hull KR are in good form and Leigh aren't.

As said before, is Catalans vs Hudds a foregone conclusion? Even Cas - Wigan might be surprisingly competitive.

[Barley Mow]

3 minutes ago, sam4731 said:

But the point is that we are dependent on the draw for competitive matches, which shouldn't be the case at the QF stage. If we still had a Championship side I could understand but with 8 SL sides, we should have 4 competitive matches.

I don't think I agree. Because the draw is random in all rounds, higher ranked teams will knock each other out - so 8 SL clubs could mean the top 4 versus the bottom 4. That scenario should be fairly predictable in almost any sports league in almost any era.

We recently had a discussion (it may even be on this thread) about almost every SL club having been in a challenge cup final recently. There may be a growing gap in the strength of teams, but if there is I don't think it's demonstrated by the challenge cup.

[sam4731]

2 minutes ago, phiggins said:

Yes, but there will always be anomalies of form. Leigh v Hull KR went to golden point last year. Hopefully will be a lot more competitive game later in the year, just right now, Hull KR are in good form and Leigh aren't.

As said before, is Catalans vs Hudds a foregone conclusion? Even Cas - Wigan might be surprisingly competitive.

 

2 minutes ago, Barley Mow said:

I don't think I agree. Because the draw is random in all rounds, higher ranked teams will knock each other out - so 8 SL clubs could mean the top 4 versus the bottom 4. That scenario should be fairly predictable in almost any sports league in almost any era.

We recently had a discussion (it may even be on this thread) about almost every SL club having been in a challenge cup final recently. There may be a growing gap in the strength of teams, but if there is I don't think it's demonstrated by the challenge cup.

I'm specifically talking of this season though. It feels like a gap has opened in SL which has made games between certain teams seem over before they've begun. In the past, it has felt like anyone could beat anyone which is precisely the reason why we've had 11 different finalists in the last 7 years. This year just feels different.

[Barley Mow]

34 minutes ago, sam4731 said:

 

I'm specifically talking of this season though. It feels like a gap has opened in SL which has made games between certain teams seem over before they've begun. In the past, it has felt like anyone could beat anyone which is precisely the reason why we've had 11 different finalists in the last 7 years. This year just feels different.

On the general point, I think it's difficult to say - gaps in standards (or at least in results) open and close at different points in the table from year to year.

I just don't think the challenge cup provides good evidence one way or the other - If the draw in the previous round had given Wigan, Saints, Catalans, Wire, Leeds, Hull KR, Salford and Huddersfield home draws against the bottom four in SL and four Championship clubs, then those 8 would likely be in the quarter finals. Quarter final fixtures between those would then be less easy to predict - it really is hugely dependent on the luck of the draw in the current and previous rounds - that has always been the case.

Edited April 11 by Barley Mow

[bobbruce]

On 11/04/2024 at 12:57, sam4731 said:

 

I'm specifically talking of this season though. It feels like a gap has opened in SL which has made games between certain teams seem over before they've begun. In the past, it has felt like anyone could beat anyone which is precisely the reason why we've had 11 different finalists in the last 7 years. This year just feels different.

It isn’t as Huddersfield and Wire have shown. 

[sam4731]

16 minutes ago, bobbruce said:

It isn’t as Huddersfield and Wire have shown. 

Why Wire? I wouldn't have made either team particularly favourites.