bowes

Coach
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  1. I think the 1% drop with a UK-EU FTA actually would disproportionately hit bankers, because FTAs are better when it comes to goods than they are for services. Though the reduced tax intake could still cause issues for other people
  2. It says we'll be 1% worse off if we leave the EU but sign a Free Trade agreement with the EU. Presumably EFTA membership would be much less disruptive than that. I don't see that as significant enough to overturn a democratic decision over. Even the worst case scenario of trading with the EU on WTO terms and not getting a free trade deal with the USA would only harm GDP by 4.9% (though I'd much rather that not happen). If we can sign FTAs with the EU and the USA (under a future US president) we'd actually be better off than we are as EU members. https://www.rand.org/randeurope/research/projects/brexit-economic-implications/calculator.html
  3. It's possible things would now finish 52-48 for Remain but I don't see how that's not going to cause more problems especially as there will be strong regional differences. If there'd been better arguments for Remain it would have won, but most of what we've heard from Remain supporters since the referendum hasn't been exactly effective at winning people over to their point of view Bob8's argument about the UK being the largest economy in an increasingly English speaking EU, plus hearing more about the EU-Japan trade deal may have swung the vote though
  4. If we had a general election and Labour won but the banks decided they didn't want Corbyn so we had to vote again would that be democratic? I don't think the will of the people has changed, it's just people who voted Remain anyway have got louder
  5. I think a referendum on EFTA Vs hard Brexit would probably be a good idea for that reason. A second referendum on an issue we only voted on last year is inherently undemocratic, but that doesn't mean we can't have a vote on the type of Brexit
  6. Maybe. If Barack Obama had put TPP in place and Trump wasn't trashing NAFTA then I think we'd have alternatives to the EU (as long as we signed some kind of Canada style deal with the EU). As it stands I think EFTA membership is the most reasonable option, whether that should be combined with full EEA membership or a Swiss style bilateral deal I'm not sure
  7. We are still a major trading partner with the USA and currently 6th biggest economy in the world. The USA do have free trade deals with countries much smaller than us. I think either someone on the global free trade side of either the Republicans or Democrats would sign up to a deal. It's worth bearing in mind political trends in Europe are not in the most progressive or stable of directions either, or in other words after the Italian election you'll be able to walk from the Mediterranean to the Baltic Sea without leaving a European Union member state governed by a nationalist-populist party
  8. It may a good option under a more sensible president.
  9. Possibly, or possibly she knows what she wants but doesn't want Boris to kick off
  10. Got Shadow on ignore now, it's really not worth debating with people like him
  11. EFTA would easily pass parliament, with Labour votes, but would see a Conservative leadership challenge
  12. I don't see us rejoining as things stand because that would mean joining the Euro and Schengen. If Laurent Wauquiez and a more conservative successor to Merkel decide to reform the EU then we might rejoin
  13. I think we'll get a Labour-Lib Dem-SNP coalition, but Labour would have to be careful how many concessions they make to the SNP and Lib Dems if they don't want to lose English working class voters. On economic issues they'd probably work well together
  14. It'll probably happen under a Labour government
  15. I don't think it's as simple as that. Overturning a democratic and free vote would have major political consequences, esecially as it would be to appease the middle classes and London. EFTA membership must surely be compatible with the Good Friday Agreement and would meet the referendum mandate, although hardliners on both ends wouldn't be happy, it would probably please more people than either extreme